We're all looking for who did this

 In some ways it was a new way to lose this season and in some ways it echoed previous #mubb loses but the Oklahoma loss was a tough one nonetheless. We have to chat through the results of that game but more than anything we are really using it as a context for evaluating where this season has gone wrong. We talk through expectations for the rest of the season, what we'd like to see the team do, and where changes can be made in season. We then preview Valpo and very half heartedly preview the Wisconsin game. Enjoy!

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/qmbu2vm7zaxubm8k/2025_Dec_1_So_Fetch8cout.mp3

 

Fear and Anxiety is this Pods Growth Mindset

 Another week, another tough loss for #mubb. We've officially adjusted expectations so now it's time to talk about what's working (not a whole lot) and what's not (fairly extensive list). We talk through the roster and what we're seeing from players and the prospects of improvement. We also talk changes we would like to see as this season shifts from target goals to avoidance goals. We also talk about the Oklahoma game and what we can and cannot expect from that game. At least we still have each other. Enjoy!

 

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/hwcckpme677w7nt9/2025_Nov_22_Down_Badapb72.mp3

 

 

Is Marquette's Season Over?

After losing to Dayton, Chase Ross & Marquette are looking for answers

Photo by Mark Hoffman | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Typically, we don't talk about the NCAA Tournament bubble until conference season is underway. I don't start bracketology articles until around Christmas. It's too early and there isn't enough data to say anything with even marginal confidence. Except sometimes, it doesn't feel like it's too early...

Is There an At-Large Path?

Marquette's early losses to Indiana, Maryland, and Dayton leave Marquette at 3-3. This matches the worst program start since the 1989-90 season, and only matched by 2014-15. For a program pushing the power of retention, losses to teams like Indiana and Maryland that are made up completely of new players -- tied for 0.0% minutes continuity per kenpom while Marquette's 53.5% is 13th nationally and #2 among high-majors -- has to feel like a blow to the heavily marketed Relationships/Growth/Victory model. The loss to Dayton was the first time Marquette lost at home to a non-Power conference school since dropping the opener to Belmont in 2015 and killed a chance at revenge for the Flyers' upset win over then-#6 (per the AP Poll) Marquette from a year ago. Suffice to say, any March glory has to feel like an uphill climb to Marquette fans.

Let's try to sprinkle some optimism in. Making the NCAA Tournament wouldn't be wholly unprecedented. Marquette did start 3-3 start under Hank Raymonds in 1979-80 and made the NCAA Tournament. Last year, Arizona started 3-3 (and sank to 4-5) before rallying in conference play to not just make the Tournament but earned a protected 4-seed. And of course, there is the Big East Tournament automatic bid, which Marquette won three years ago and a Georgetown team that also started 3-3 won five years ago.

In the interest of keeping hope alive, this is NOT an AI generated photo

Photo by Frank Franklin II | Associated Press

Today we'll look at what it will take for Marquette to reach the NCAA Tournament. For the pessimists in the crowd, this may confirm your priors. For the optimists, we will lay out the path to making the Big Dance so you know what to hope for. It might not be as impossible as it seems.

Wins Above Bubble Primer

The first thing we'll focus on is Wins Above Bubble. This was a new metric to the NCAA Team Sheet last year but it was also the single most predictive metric of inclusion and seed. In theory, for the metric to work perfectly, any positive score would be a team that makes the NCAA Tournament and any negative score would miss. The way it works is every game is assigned a value between 0.01 and 1.00. For instance, Marquette's recent game against Dayton was assigned a positive value of 0.28, so if Marquette had won, they would've gained 0.28 in WAB. Losing earned them a negative net of the opposite, so -0.72 (the difference between 0.28 and 1.00). I'm using T-Rank because it's the easiest to track, but the NCAA's official WAB mirrors the formula using NET instead of T-Rank as the additive basis. Currently, Marquette's WAB score is -1.49.

Before we dig into WAB fully, it's important to caveat that the numbers fluctuate throughout the year. For instance, the value for beating Wisconsin on the morning of Friday, November 21 was 0.67. After losing to BYU, their value changed to 0.64, meaning they provide less value if you beat them and do more damage if you lose to them. Unfortunately, this is a trend that pervades Marquette's schedule. T-Rank includes preseason expectations that influence the rankings so that a few early season outliers don't radically change a team's rank. In terms of how this influences WAB, it can be significant for teams near the top of the rankings, but becomes negligible as you move further down the rankings. For instance, the difference between the home value for Marquette beating #42 Villanova (+0.44) and #97 Xavier (0.24) is a sizeable +0.20 in WAB. The home value difference between #254 Valparaiso (+0.06) and #310 Central Michigan (+0.04) is negligible despite a nearly identical gap in rankings.

For the purposes of this article, data was pulled the afternoon of November 21st after the BYU/Wisconsin game.

WAB Non-Conference Status

Marquette hasn't done themselves any favors with their start. In the past two years, no team has earned an at-large bid with a WAB score as low as Marquette's current -1.49. It's worth noting that once game values are established, the record will be all that matters in terms of projecting the WAB score because each game is worth an equal fluctuation of 1.00. Here are the remaining values on Marquette's non-conference schedule, along with the current expected non-conference WAB scores based on the potential remaining wins and loss scenarios:

Last year, the worst non-conference WAB scores to earn at-large berths were 4-seed Arizona (-1.21), 9-seed Creighton (-0.57), 6-seed BYU (-0.40), and play-in 11-seed Xavier (-0.39). While the WAB metric has only been on the team sheet for one season, going back to 2021 there were only two teams to earn at-large bids with a non-con WAB score worse than 2025 Arizona. Those were 2023 Texas A&M (-2.29) and 2022 Rutgers (-2.33). Buzz's TAMU squad went 15-3 in the SEC, finishing second in the league. The Scarlet Knights were a controversial Last Four In selection but had seven Q1 wins to bolster their bizarre case. Using these precedents, we feel comfortable making the following statements regarding Marquette's remaining non-conference schedule:

1. If Marquette can't beat at least one of Oklahoma, Wisconsin, or Purdue, earning an at-large bid would be unprecedented.
2. If Marquette can get two wins against Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Purdue, they'll at least be back in the "you're saying there's a chance" camp.
3. If Marquette wins all of their remaining non-conference games, they will likely be on track to earn an at-large bid.

WAB Big East Projections

We went through the conference season to determine the WAB value for every conference game. Using current numbers, a perfect 20-0 season would be worth +9.17 in WAB. Every loss drops that by because you not only lose the positive win share but also are saddled with the negative loss share.

This results in the following potential league-only based on the above:

At an initial glance, this gives a somewhat rosy outlook. If these numbers maintain through the year, Marquette getting to 7-4 in non-con and 12-8 in league would seem to at least put them in the mix for an at-large bid. It would seem that the same 7-4 with a 13-7 record would make them near locks for a bid. The problem with that is the aforementioned "if these numbers maintain" because based on current results, that doesn't look likely.

Early Trends & WAB Futures

Early in the season, metrics like T-Rank use roster construction, program history, and recruiting rankings to approximate how good teams are expected to be. However it also let you sort that preseason data out and only look at a team's performance using in-season data. This early in the season, that data can be deceptive. What it does tell you is how teams have actually played compared to the expectation of how they should have played. Look at the disparity of the teams on Marquette's schedule so far:

For the sub-150 teams, these changes don't mean much. Southern, Central Michigan, Valparaiso, and Little Rock have all had pretty large swings, but the current WAB point difference between the best guarantee game of #151 Southern (+0.12) and the worst in #324 Albany (+0.04) is less than 0.1 overall, so all of those are pretty negligible moves. The negative swings for Maryland and Oklahoma, on the other hand, are significant.

The bigger issue here though is for the Big East. Once league play starts, the WAB benefits are pretty much set in stone because even though an individual team might improve their value with a few impressive wins, their in-league opponents will have similar value losses so that it balances out in the end. These numbers are even more fixed in a league with a double-round robin schedule. More than half the Big East has seen a rank decline. Further, while the most improved metric team is Butler (+31) there are four teams that individually have bigger negative offsets than the positive done by the Bulldogs.

As this data calcifies, the expectation is that Big East WAB values will go down as the in-season results get closer to the sorted data. This is particularly salient in Big East play because non-conference play is about halfway done. That means that the league data is close to being fixed. There's still some time for the Big East to turn things around, but if this is what the league is it will likely be the weakest since 2019 when the league got just three bids and none better than a 5-seed. Cheer for every Big East team because the next two weeks will go a long way to determining if the league earns 3 bids or 5.

To address this, I calculated the values of the teams in the commensurate rankings with the sorted data for Big East teams. So instead of Georgetown's score at #70 I used the WAB value for #61 Santa Clara. For Creighton, instead of using their current #31, I used UNLV at #90. The max 20-0 value changed from +9.17 to +8.23. The effective change means that Big East wins will be worth as little as 89.8% of the current expected value while Big East losses will penalize by as much as 108.7% of the current expected value. These may not be fixed values, but they give us an idea of what will be needed to earn an at-large bid.

Historically, in the past five years no team has been left out with a 2.0 or better WAB. Using these charts, that means any combination of 22+ wins before the Big East Tournament should result in an at-large bid for Marquette. Over the same span, 79.1% of teams to finish between 1.0-1.9 WAB have earned a bid, though at least one was left out each season. This means that if Marquette finishes at 21-10, like Xavier did last year (albeit with a +0.42 WAB) they will be on the bubble but with a good chance of being in. Teams finishing between 0.0-0.9 WAB earned an at-large bid 36.5% of the time. So if Marquette finishes at 20-11, they will most likely be on the outside looking in. Given the increased importance of WAB, it seems very unlikely anyone finishing with a negative WAB will earn an at-large bid.

So is Marquette's Season Over?

In short, no. If this team can rally and pull wins out of two of their remaining three big non-con games, then follow that up with a 15-5 Big East season, no matter how unlikely that combination may be, they will likely find themselves in the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens at MSG in March. If they come up short by a game in one of those regards, there's still a chance. Given the damage already done and the likelihood that the Maryland and Dayton losses will look worse in March than they do now, I tend to think 21-10 in regular season play is the floor, unless the entire bubble implodes.

While that seems to be the annual fan expectation, with the ACC, Big 10, and Big 12 all trending toward more bids than last year, there's a good chance this will be a firmer bubble than in recent seasons, meaning that Marquette might need that gaudier 22-9 record and big wins to bolster it if they want to an at-large bid. And of course, if all else fails, Patrick Ewing proved that the Big East Tournament offers hope to even the most hapless. Let's cross our fingers and hope we don't need it.

It's #mubb, it's gone from suck to blow!

Timeless Mel Brooks comedy references aside, we gotta talk about #mubb. That game SUCKED and this podcast is officially joining the worry train for the season. Narrative trauma about losing to Buzz aside, the performance in the game was flat, then good, then great, then FLAT. We talk about what we saw in the game and what the overall trend in the season is making us to worried early. We discuss potential talent gaps and where the #culture can or will take us. We then reset seasonal expectations (they are low) and look at the week ahead. Unlike the game Saturday, we hope the podcast is something you can ENJOY!

 

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/g6ivsjibmw4degkh/2025_Nov_16_We_SUCKbrhvi.mp3

 

 

That sucked

Well, the start to the new #mubb season could have been worse, but not by much. Yeah sure, they won the buy games comfortably and had some fun along the way but the focus of the latest pod is the beat down in Chicago. Marquette had an early season challenge in facing a relatively unknown Indiana team, and to say they did not meet it is an understatement. We break down the game, what we think went wrong, and what of it is fixable. We also agree to mention the p word just this once and then we are never going to mention portal again this season. We do talk about positives, who/what do we like so far this season before turning to the week ahead. A critical buy game to get right and start fixing some of the issues, especially on defense before the only true big game on the non-conference home slate, Maryland. We break down the Maryland team, the Buzz of it all, and whether this becomes an early "must win". Tough start to the season, but we still hope you enjoy!

 

  

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/m59exj9y34d8c2zr/2025_Nov_9_IU_ouch9kw8l.mp3

 

Buckle Up Buckaroos

Well, our long national nightmare is almost over. #mubb season is almost back so that means Scrambled Eggs is back! Hope you are really locked in because we have a lot of ground to cover. We start with a general roster overview and the players we are excited or intrigued by including a new crush now that the Jopwagon has exhausted eligibility. We then talk about the team overall and how we project it's offense and defense to perform. As is tradition, we wrap up with a game by game projection that doubles as game previews for the 3! games we have coming next week. It's a lot, but as always enjoy!

 

 

https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/e/buckle-up-buckaroos/

 

Connecticut Preview, 2025-26

Connecticut Huskies

Sunday, January 4th at Gampel Pavilion, Storrs, CT / Saturday, March 7th at Fiserv Forum (Senior Day)

Head Coach: Dan Hurley (316-174 overall, 165-69 at Connecticut)

Three-Year NET Average: 13.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 11.3

Projected 2025-26 T-Rank: 10

Solo Ball's 25 points spoiled National Marquette Day

Photo by Morry Gash | AP Photo

State of the Program

After two straight National Championships, it seemed like Dan Hurley had built an unstoppable juggernaut in Storrs. Instead the Huskies stumbled out of the gate, losing three games in Maui. Those three losses in November matched their total loss count from the season before. UConn was still competitive, going 24-11 (14-6) and finishing third in the league, but considering the two preceding years, an 8-seed and second round exit (albeit after a narrow loss to eventual National Champs Florida) had to feel like a disappointment. But instead of regressing, UConn has reinforced their roster with a mix of transfer additions and high school talent. They'll be right back in the mix at the top of the Big East again.

Rotation

The biggest name transfer is Georgia guard Silas Demary. He can play on or off the ball and offers more defensive length on the perimeter than last year's team had. Demary is also adept at creating turnovers and turning those into points the other way. The name everyone should be focused on is Solo Ball. He stepped into a regular starting role and while his minutes jumped up (11.5 mpg to 31.7) it was his per 40 numbers that really improved. In terms of counting stats/40, his points went from 11.5 to 18.2, rebounds from 3.5 to 4.5, and assists from 0.9 to 2.1. Ball didn't just play more, he played more efficiently at a higher and more productive usage. Defensively, he's only average, but should be easier to hide alongside Demary. If Ball can take another step forward in terms of usage, he will be one of the best players in the Big East, if not the entire country. Braylon Mullins steps into the elite freshman role previously occupied by Liam McNeeley and Stephon Castle. He's an elite shooter and scorer, but will surprise fans with his quickness and athleticism. An injury is expected to sideline him until early December. Jaylin Stewart is a competent deputy but this may impact their depth early in the season. Up front the senior statesman is Alex Karaban, who was a staple on UConn's most recent title teams. His scoring efficiency took a hit as more was expected from him. Expect Karaban to return to being more of a role-player with guys like Demary and Mullins alongside him as well as a larger role for Tarris Reed. This should suit Karaban well, as he's an elite role-player. Speaking of Reed, he blossomed in Hurley's system. He lived at the rim but the additional space increased his efficiency. He was an elite rebounder on both ends of the court, and being able to stay at the rim on both ends led to career bests in offensive rebounding rate, defensive rebounding rate, and block percent. He truly shone on the defensive end and while he might not be the high flyer Samson Johnson was, UConn was 7.0 points better/100 possessions defensively when he was on the court. If he can maintain his increased effectiveness while picking up more minutes, he could be in the All-American conversation next to Ball. Malachi Smith from Dayton is one to watch. He was an elite distributor for the Flyers and offensively fits well in Hurley's system, but his size may be difficult to hide on the wing, particularly if he's out there with Ball. UConn has a mix of experience (Alec Millender from IU Indy) and athleticism (Jaylin Stewart) on the bench, but the guy who might be most important there is freshman Eric Reibe. UConn has effectively used a two-big rotation the past three years and who shares minutes with Reed will be key. The hope will be that he can play with reckless abandon for 10-15 minutes per night, serving as a complement to Reed similar to how freshman Donovan Clingan was a change of pace for Adama Sanogo on the 2023 team.

Style of Play

UConn's offense is known for running a ton of sets. It's deep, complex, and firmly structured. They like to play a lot through the middle. Last year they were in the 70th percentile or higher in percentage of post up, inside out, pick and pop, and big man cut/roll plays in the country. The problem UConn's offense ran into was they while they've never been a drive heavy team, their past drives succeeded in finding shooters at the arc. Last year, their shooting tailed off a bit and Hassan Diarra, while a fine reserve, was unable to create shots for himself the way Tristen Newton did. Because he was less of an individual threat and because the shooters weren't as accurate, the offensive efficiency dropped. That said, UConn still ranked #15 in offensive efficiency, which is excellent. It just wasn't elite like the #1 and #3 rankings of the two previous seasons. Offensively, the question will be how long it takes Demary and Smith to catch up to the system. In 2022-23, UConn was a good team that became elite as Tristen Newton turned the corner from game manager to offensive maestro. In 2023-24, Newton's mastery of the playbook led to season-long dominance. The Demary/Smith combo should provide better long range accuracy at the point than Diarra gave, and returning Karaban to more of a catch and shoot role rather than secondary creator should pay offensive dividends. Their offense may be a work in progress in November, but expect big things by the end of the season.

Shot charts from CBBAnalytics.com | Defensive Ranks from kenpom.com

Defense is where UConn really fell off. After ranking in the top-7 both of the championship years, the Huskies were just 75th nationally per kenpom. Breaking down the four factors, it's pretty clear that opponent three-point accuracy was the change. They had suffered poor turnovers and free throw rates before, their offensive rebounding and rim protection was on par with the title years, and they didn't allow significantly more shots from beyond the arc relative to the previous seasons. They did allow teams to make 40+% from deep far more often and struggled to win those games. Defensive three-point accuracy is often considered to be a function of luck, so some of UConn's 2025 backslide may have been bad fortune, but Hurley's teams had ranked in the top-100 of 3PFG% defense in 8 of the past 11 seasons going back to his time at Rhode Island. Five of those teams ranked in the top-40. When it came to challenging shots, UConn simply didn't have the length and athleticism on the perimeter that they had in recent years. Looking at the defensive shot charts from the last three years (above) UConn was dominant in the paint but their arc defense is a major shift. In 2023 and 2024, teams struggled to find good looks at the arc, but the heat map improves significantly in 2025.

Strategically, expect UConn to continue chasing teams off the three-point line and forcing them inside to Reed and Reibe. While opponent accuracy from three can sway things as it did last year, the strategy of limiting threes and denying at the rim has been brutally effective, even last year. Again, the problem wasn't the number of threes or the rim defense, it was almost exclusively how accurate teams were from deep that led to the defensive regression. Reed emerging as a defensive force should help. UConn was 11-2 in games where he played more than 20 minutes and that should be the case more often than not in 2025-26.

2025-26 Outlook 

This roster fits together incredibly well. Demary and Smith provide an excellent 1-2 point guard punch and will have the ability to play together in stretches. Ball will have less defensive pressure on his plate thanks to Demary which will allow him to just be a flamethrower. Last year, it also felt like too much pressure was put on Liam McNeeley to score for UConn. Braylon Mullins is a similarly competent scorer but won't have so much pressure on him to deliver with the talent around him and on the bench behind him. The departure of Samson Johnson is also likely addition by subtraction because it will lead to more minutes for Tarris Reed, who is simply a better player. This team may not reach the heights that Hurley's best teams did, but while we had questions about last year's roster, this year Hurley has answered all of those questions emphatically. Newcomers at the point may lead to a slower start than the Huskies had in their recent championship years, but there are enough options there that it seems likely Hurley will be able to figure that out by February, by which time UConn will be a Big East and National Title threat once again.

One Man's Opinion

This team is reminiscent of Hurley's first title-winning team, and on a tier of their own as our pick to finish #1 in the Big East. Ball and Reed are the returning studs like Jordan Hawkins and Adama Sanogo. Demary and Smith are the newcomers who offer two different point guard looks like Tristen Newton and Hassan Diarra. And Alex Karaban is Alex Karaban, only older. Whether this team reaches those heights remains to be seen. A lot has to come together for any team to make a deep March run. In terms of the Big East, however, I feel they are on a tier of their own and the clear favorites in the league. St. John's may be ranked similarly in the preseason but their roster flaws are too glaring to put them on UConn's level. Marquette and Creighton both are great on one side of the ball but need to prove they are effective on both ends of the court. For the time being, the safe assumption is that the road to the Big East crown runs through Storrs.