Off the Charts

Marquette's blowout victory against Cincy was a great win. It was also notable for a few reasons.

Let's take a look at the four factors.


141.2 was the second-highest offensive efficiency for Marquette in 2.5 years, behind only the Coppin State game from last year. As has been recapped in many places, the key to this game was both the offensive performance (shooting 15-25 from three) as well as the defensive performance.

Although it was the offense that got most of the pub, I actually think that it was the defense that was the most important. Marquette's season average defensively is 93.6, and this game was well below that. In fact, the eFG% was the fourth lowest in 2.5 years, which by itself would have been enough to win the game.

Still, it wasn't just the defense alone that keyed the victory. Obviously, Marquette was dynamite behind the arc. This was also an off the charts performance, with the highest offensive eFG% in the last 2.5 years. I consider this especially impressive because Cincinnati came into the game as the #10 country at limiting eFG%.

Combine offensive and defensive performances that are off the charts, and you end up with a soul-crushing victory against a Big East Opponent. The big question... is this just a statistical anomaly, or a sign of the team improving at both ends under a new coach? The right answer is probably a little bit of both.

Given the improvement and wins, how do Marquette's chances look for the rest of the season? I'm not expecting a lot more than my New Year's Resolution, but the news is better.

Pomeroy presently has us finishing with a most likely record of 11-7 in conference. Right now, I see a most likely view of 10-8 in conference (21-10 overall). If you're an optimist, there is an >80% chance of finishing with a record of 9-9 or better, with a 66% of finishing with ten wins or more. There's even a 13% chance of getting to 13 wins based on the statistics today. If you're a pessimist, there's a 45% chance that the team ends up at 9 wins or less.

Win on Wednesday, and the team practically ensures itself a record of 0.500 or better, with a solid track of finishing with a better record than last year.

McNeal named player of the week, MU rises in rankings

Jerel McNeal's strong play continues turn heads. Today McNeal was named the BIG EAST player of the week for the second time this season. Last week, McNeal averaged 25 points, six assists and four boards per game as MU topped Villanova and Cincinnati.

Also, MU moved up in both polls this week landing at #18 in the AP poll and #15 in the ESPN/USA Today poll. Marquette is one of nine BIG EAST teams ranked in the top 25 including the nation's new number one, Pittsburgh.

This just in: McNeal Pretty Good: MU Smokes Cincy 84-50

Jerel McNeal set a career record, hitting 7 for 7 from behind the arc, finishing 8 of 9, 26 points, 5 boards and 6 assists in 31 efficient minutes to lead the Warriors to a 84-50 beat down of the Bearcats. To borrow a 1990s phrase: McNeal was en fuego.

Wes added 17, and Lazar had 16 (in 20 short minutes!)

Jimmy Butler saw extended playing time, as Lazar picked up his 2nd foul in the first 6 minutes, forcing Coach Buzz to use Butler until the half.

Marquette led by 14 at the half, but within 7 minutes of the 2nd half, had pushed the lead to 30, and Cincy's effort dwindled. This enormous lead enabled Buzz to play Otule extensively in the final 15, and Fulce in the final 5. Even doghoused Coobie got in for the final 9 minutes, although he never chucked up even one shot.

In short, Marquette won by shooting a blistering 54% from the field, and an amazing 60% from behind the arc. Shoot like that, and the sky is the limit.

Box Score
Rosiak
AP Recap
Photos

Videos:

Alley-oop:


Acker drains a 3 before the buzzer:


Hazel Highlight:

Weekly Videos: Coobie Nails a 3!

More videos from the Buzz Show - Time Warner Sports Channel 32

Coobie:


OOC Wrap-up:

MU Grabs First BE Win over Villanova - 79-72

If nothing else, the start of the Big East season has been memorable for Marquette, with three lopsided games.

In 2006 it was Steve Novak's heroics that stunned UConn in MU's first Big East game ever.

In 2007, injuries to Jerel McNeal and Wes Matthews took their toll as MU was blown out by Providence.

In 2008, Marquette paid back PC, pasting them with a 29 point loss.

The 2009 season began unlike the previous three seasons--with a hard fought contest against two closely matched teams. In the end, Jerel McNeal scored 24 and Wesley Matthews posted 19 as MU held off #13 Villanova Wildcats on Thursday by a final of 79-72.

In a game that saw 10 ties, MU used back-to-back jumpers by Mathews and a 3 pointer by McNeal to pace an 11-2 late run that built a 71-61 lead. Matthews, McNeal and Lazar Hayward then combined for 13 of 14 from the line to seal the victory.

In most games, it is a given that MU has an strong edge in the backcourt. However, conventional wisdom going into the game today was that Villanova's own backcourt of Scottie Reynolds, Corey Stokes and Corey Fisher might be just as good as MU's--and the edge that Villanova had inside with Dante Cunningham over Dwight Burke might be the difference in the game.

Cue Pat Hazel and Jimmy Butler.

While MU's frontcourt reserves may not have posted a lockdown defense on Cunningham, they did keep Villanova from gaining a significant advantage in the paint, combining with Dwight Burke to hold VU's frontcourt to just 20 total points--Antonio Pena was scoreless, and reserve Shane Clark posted just 4 points on top of 16 from Cunningham. The most impressive stat: Butler posted 7 boards (5 offensive) in just fifteen minutes. For the game, Cunningham edged Butler by just one rebound--but he played 35 minutes to reach that milestone.

With the inside game in check, Matthews, McNeal, Hayward and James proceeded to do what they do best took what the VU defense gave them--which was not much dribble penetration. Instead, MU shot outstandingly well from the 3 point arc (10 of 24), handled Villanova's 2-3 zone without panicking, and looked like a Big East contender during the last eight minutes of the game.

While the strong play (if not stat-stuffing performance) from MU's frontcourt bench was good to see, the slow start and sloppy play by MU guards was not. Villanova raced off to a 6-0 lead, and MU turned the ball over 19 times for the game--13 in the first half.

To the team's credit, MU was solid in the final eight minutes, with just one turnover down the stretch.

If one was looking for a sign that Coach Buzz Williams had changed his view that Chris Otule and Joe Fulce had earned playing time, they wouldn't have seen it today--neither player saw action, despite both getting extended time against Presbyterian last Sunday.

The game was important for MU to gain advantage on the Wildcats in the Big East conference race. In their picks at start of the season, Big East coaches had MU and VU thisclose in projected standings, with VU slightly edging MU for 5th place.

With the win, Marquette looks to go 2-0 in Big East play for the first time since joining the league when they take on Cincinnati on Saturday. The Bearcats should be a bit rusty, not having played since their 60-45 loss to Memphis on Monday evening.

Here's the roundup of coverage:

• Milwaukee Journal Sentinel recaps the game here.
  
• ESPN's game recap.
  
• Philly Inquirer on MU's backcourt keying the win.
• Philly Daily News on MU beating Nova at its own game.
• I Bleed Blue & White recaps the game.
• Villanova By The Numbers digs deep for the recap.
  

*updated media links

Ready or not, MU opens BIG EAST play

Marquette opens BIG EAST play on New Year's Day when they host the 13th ranked Villanova Wildcats (12-1). The 25th-ranked Golden Eagles begin conference play with a record of 11-2 and loads of questions about bench strength and a weak defense.

Through the season's first stanza, Wesley Matthews set the pace for Marquette. Matthews' explosive senior season has drawn comparisons to Tony Smith's final campaign in blue and gold, though Matthews' outstanding play might be more laudable given the talented veterans surrounding him. Matthews is fifth in the BIG EAST in scoring at more than 19 points per game and is second in the nation in both free throws attempted and made. The Marquette senior is shooting a career-best 50% from the field and 84% from the line.

With Matthews leading the way, Buzz Williams can count on four consistent contributors every night. Lazar Hayward (17 points, 9 boards), Jerel McNeal (17 points, 5 boards) and Dominic James (11 points, five assists) form one of the BIG EAST's best four-man gangs. Unfortunately for MU, the production usually ends with the Fantastic Four as nobody else on the roster averages more than four points per outing.

Are the Fantastic Four enough to carry MU to an upper division finish in the BIG EAST? As Rob pointed out yesterday, the answer may be a resounding 'No.'

The Golden Eagles lack of depth heading into conference play might be the single biggest factor in determining whether or not Buzz Williams' first vintage matures into a March surprise. In particular, lack of depth on the baseline is certainly contributing to Marquette's embarrassing team defense this season -- among BIG EAST teams, only Seton Hall and Providence offer a more porous defense than the Golden Eagles so far this season.

Despite proclamations by coach Buzz Williams that injured newcomers Joseph Fulce and Chris Otule have been 'pitiful' in their returns, their presence and talent provide hope for a team that has become overly reliant on role players forced into prolonged stints on the floor. Still, despite the optimism of a healthy roster, integrating two newcomers who have yet to practice extensively into a mature rotation will be no small feat.

Nevertheless, the BIG EAST will shed no tears for Marquette, and the Villanova Wildcats shape up as a tremendous challenge for the Golden Eagles.

The Wildcats head into Milwaukee after blowing out Temple earlier in the week, 62-45. The Wildcats are paced by 6'8" senior Dante Cunningham who leads the team in both scoring and rebounding (17 and 7). Talented guard Scottie Reynolds kicks in 14 points a game, and is knocking down 37% of his three-point attempts. Sophomore guard Corey Stokes has elevated his play this season, averaging better than eleven points per game --nearly double his freshman average. In addition, Stokes is hitting 45% from deep.

As with most teams in the BIG EAST, Villanova has played a modest schedule to date falling at Texas last month while beating up on their local neighbors St. Joseph's, Temple, Pennsylvania and LaSalle.

Tipoff is scheduled for 1:30pm. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2. Just in case, here's a look back at the pre-season predictions from the Cracked Sidewalks crew.

Media Updates
Marquette official game notes
Rosiak's pre-game blog

Villanova Bloggers are out in force
VUHoops.com checks in with a preview
I Bleed Blue and White previews the game
Let's Go Nova previews the tilt

New Year's Resolution: Expect Less from Marquette

I love New Year's Eve. Even if it's a "one-second holiday", it's one of my favorite calendar events of the year. After all, each New Year is an opportunity for renewal and fresh optimism. Didn't like the last year? Make some resolutions and work to make the next year even better. Weird as it may seem, this post falls in line with making 2009 better. Frankly, I have come to believe that people are expecting too much from Marquette this year. Yet if you look at the projected Pomeroy schedule predictions, we presently see a projection of Marquette finishing 9-9 in conference. The numbers are telling us something different than expectations.

Going 9-9 in conference may be a shocking scenario to some, even inspiring an interesting thread on MarquetteHoops.com. I wanted to take my own look at things because of a few concerns with the way that Pomeroy does his predictions. First, I don't think that his numbers take into consideration such factors as home versus road. It's no surprise that teams play better at home, but the statistics back it up. For example, Marquette averaged 1.06 points per possession of offense last year at home and on the road. However, the defense at home (0.91 ppp allowed) was much better than on the road (1.07 ppp allowed). In fact, only three teams in the Big East last year had winning road efficiency margins (UL, UConn, and Georgetown), and their statistics were still worse on the road.

In addition, I'm pretty sure that Pomeroy also doesn't account for matchup-specific situations. In other words, what if two winning teams match up, but one is good at forcing turnovers and one is lousy at protecting the ball? What if a team is great at getting to the Free Throw line, but it doesn't matter for the other team's defensive efficiency?

Therefore, I ran a model that looked at these two issues in particular with the following results.

Unfortunately, using this model, the end result is pretty much the same as Pomeroy's. The model that was run also comes up with a prediction of 9-9. With a deeper look, the expected win percentages seem about right to me. Look at the percentages in the following categories:

Home wins (high confidence) - Cincy, DePaul, St. Johns
Home wins (tougher games) - Villanova, WVU, Georgetown, Seton Hall, UConn
Home loss - Syracuse

Road wins (high confidence) - NONE. It's the Big East, dummy!
Toss-up games - USF, DePaul
Winnable road games - Rutgers, Providence
Unlikely wins - Notre Dame, Villanova, Georgetown, Louisville, Pittsburgh

Seems about right. Probably the only quibbles I have right now are the likely win against UConn and how low the percentages are for ND, @GU, @UL, and @Pitt. With more data, those percentages should get better, but does anyone really expect us to win those games, except maybe in South Bend?

However, the second area where Pomeroy's prediction is missing is a confidence interval. In other words, a prediction of 9-9 is useless without some sort of range. Therefore, I ran a monte carlo simulation with the predictions that are above.

This story is more doom and gloom. According to the monte carlo simulation:

• There is almost a 2/3 chance that the team ends up with nine wins or less
• Eighty percent likely that the team only gets ten wins
• That means only a 20% confidence that the team even matches last year's win total of eleven wins
• Hoping that the team ends up with thirteen wins and a shot at the Big East Championship? 2.8% chances are the odds.
• Or, if you really want to get freaked out... there's a one in four chance the team finishes with seven wins or less.

Better said, as the team is playing now, the most likely scenario is that Marquette finishes 9-9 in conference, with a final record of 20-11 and hoping they get an NIT berth. Or worse.

Personally, this is a tough pill to swallow. With four 1000-point scorers plus Lazar Hayward on the roster, I had high expectations as well in October, calling for

22-24 regular season wins (we were 22-8 in regular season last year), finish somewhere between 2nd and 5th (11-13 wins) in the BIG EAST, and win their first game in the NCAA tournament.

However, once I began looking at the numbers and prediction model with last year's data, my expectations were reduced to a record of 22-9 (11-7). This was still far less than the MUSCoop community.

Why is Marquette on a trajectory towards a worse finish this year, despite all that experience? I don't have the answer to that question. Our defense is clearly worse, but it's unclear if it's coaching, the transition of systems, the lack of height, or any combination. It's also clear that Marquette (#47 Pomeroy ranking) has not kept pace with the rest of the Big East. There are five teams in Pomeroy's top 10 ranking, and seven teams in his top 30. The rest of the Big East has gotten better, while Marquette is playing worse. It should be no surprise, then, that the predictions are for MU to finish worse.

Sure, maybe there's a chance that the team will start playing better. The team is adjusting to the new system, and we'll get 13 min per game from Otule and Fulce (combined). I haven't given up hope on the 20%, but for now, my New Year's Resolution is to expect less.

Happy New Year

edit: evidently I can't add

MU clobbers Presbyterian

In its final tune-up before BIG EAST conference action, the Golden Eagles rolled past the Blue Hose 84-45 yesterday at the Bradley Center. Lazar Hayward took advantage of the matchup to deliver another double-double, this time leading the team with 22 points and 11 boards. Wesley Matthews scored 21 points. With the win, MU is now 11-2 on the season.

Coach Buzz Williams used the game to his full advantage in a desperate attempt to develop more depth for the upcoming conference season. Chris Otule played 14 minutes and Joe Fulce played a dozen. Still, Buzz was not impressed calling both players "pitiful" after the game (check out Rosiak's post game blog for details).


Rosiak's recap
Rosiak post-game notes blog
MUScoop post-game comments thread
Box score