Enjoy watching history being made – where the 3 Amigos will finish

Enjoy watching history being made – where the 3 Amigos will finish - by John Pudner

It’s hard to enjoy history while it’s being made, but in the future Marquette fans may look back and remember that four of the top six scorers in Marquette history played together for three seasons ending this year. In this first of a 3-part series, I want to project where the 2008-09 team and the four stars in particular will rank on the all-time scoring lists in Marquette history.

The Fab Four’s ppg averages should all drop this year as Marquette’s 81.1 ppg to date will likely fall to about 78.3 points per game based on the predicted scores for the rest of the season at http://kenpom.com/sked.php?y=2009&team=Marquette&t=p and potential matchups in the Big East and NCAA tournaments. Looking at that link, MU is on pace to go 9-5 the rest of the way, with an average score of 77-72. Using these rankings as a basic guide for the post season, I ran a model of MU averaging a 73-73 score in five post season games (beat WVU and lose to Pitt in the Big East Tourney, then beat Miami-OH and Xavier in the NCAA before losing to Duke in the Sweet 16 based loosely on Pomeroy rankings for seeding and results).

I realize the task at hand for the players and coaches right now is going into Providence (whose only Big East loss is a close game AT Georgetown) and try to come out with a tough win there. However, I don’t want to wait until the season finale to really start to appreciate what the three Amigos are in the process of accomplishing.

Using these projections and some liberties to estimate the post season, the following is the potential outlook:

A. HISTORIC SCORING SEASON FOR MU

Currently, Marquette is averaging 81.1 ppg, good enough for the 3^rd best total in history. However, the Pomeroy projections have MU averaging 77 ppg the rest of the season against tougher Big East defenses, and assuming that total drops to 73 ppg for the Big East and NCAA tournaments that would leave this year’s squad at 78.3 ppg, still the 5^th highest scoring average in history.

1. Terry Rand and 1955 Elite 8 team – 84.2 ppg
2. Jim Chones and 1971 28-1 team – 81.7 ppg
3. Bob Wolf and 1966 team – 80.2 ppg
4. Dwyane Wade and 2003 Final Four team – 78.5 ppg
5. Three Amigos, Lazar and 2009 team projected – 78.3 ppg

Assuming the players’ rebounds, assists, steals and blocked shots fall off at the same pace as points during the tougher competition down the stretch, the final season stats would be as follows:

Player	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	WC
ACKER	100	41	55	25	0	0.0
BURKE	96	133	6	8	12	0.1
BUTLER	144	103	25	12	12	0.4
CUBILLAN	78	31	33	8	2	0.0
FROZENA	4	12	0	0	0	0.0
FULCE	14	14	4	0	2	0.0
HAYWARD	558	295	45	29	8	6.7
HAZEL	94	82	2	12	16	0.0
JAMES	410	115	180	66	6	5.1
MATTHEWS	660	193	92	51	18	7.4
MCNEAL	644	164	117	59	14	7.3
OTULE	23	18	0	0	8	0.0
Totals	2825	1201	560	271	100	27.0

(WC = Win Credits, the estimated number of wins each player is worth to the team based on his stats and how many points MU let’s opponents score.)

Obviously Otule and Fulce could register substantially more stats if they don’t miss any more injury time.

B. THE FAB 4 ON PACE TO ALL FINISH IN THE TOP 6 SCORERS OF ALL TIME

Even with the points per game falling off due to tougher competition to 18.3 ppg for Matthews, 17.9 for McNeal, 15.5 for Hayward and 11.4 for James, all four would end up in the top 6 MU scorers of all time (assuming Hayward put up the same number of points his senior year as well). Of course, while Thompson seems happy to congratulate the person who breaks his record, it should always be noted that Thompson will always be the greatest scorer in MU history. In 1966, he scored another 405 points in 17 games for MU’s freshman team because freshman were not allowed to play varsity then, and his career 20.4 ppg only has been challenged by Dwayne Wade (19.7) and Jim Chones (19.0):

1. Jerel McNeal, 1,936
2. Dominic James, 1,841
3. Lazar Hayward 1,789 (assumes 558 points this year and next)
4. George Thompson, 1,773
5. Butch Lee, 1,735
6. Wes Matthews, 1,692
7. Travis Diener, 1,691
8. Brian Wardle, 1,690
9. Tony Smith, 1,688
10. Bo Ellis, 1,663

The 2^nd column will cover where the four stars will rank in all-time assists, steals, and wins list, and the 3^rd and final column will evaluate where they rank among all the All-Americans and future pros to play for MU.

John Pudner, Journalism ’88, was Editorial Editor and then News Editor for the Marquette Tribune. He was named top sports news writer in Virginia in 1991 while working for the Charlottesville Observer and wrote a weekly column on his rankings of baseball pitchers for the New York Post before leaving journalism for a career in politics and government affairs.

John's book Ultimate Hoops Guide: Marquette University can be ordered here: (www.collegeprowler.com/basketball)