Predictions for Marquette BE Wins
Just a quick update on the current predictions for the rest of the season.
Most likely view - 13 wins
11 wins or more - 99%
12 wins or more - 91%
13 wins or more - 69%
14 wins or more - 36%
15 wins or more - 10%
16 wins - 1.3%
Where the predictions originally had a view as low at nine wins, and then a most likely view of 14 wins, we now start to head back towards a view of 13 wins.
Here's the key question... Is 13 wins enough for the Bye-Bye?
Friday, February 13, 2009
Predictions Update
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6 comments:
Does anyone really care about how MU does in the BE tourney? In my opinion, the rest they can get leading up to their first BE tourney game is considerably less important/valuable than the amount of rest leading up to their first NCAA tourney game. Anyone here not trade the win against ND in last year's BE tourney for a win over Stanford in the NCAA?
I'm not suggesting that performing well at The Garden isn't a goal, but honestly, I remember regular seasons and NCAA performance more than conference tourney success when I compare teams throughout the years. But if the issue up for discussion is rest, I favor more rest before the NCAA than the BE.
So I guess I have to respectfully take a different course than CS on this one. I'm not that worried about MU's Bye or Bye-Bye situation.
How do others feel? Is this blasphemy?
I know that Marquette went to the final four after losing in the first round of the Conf. USA tournament to UAB back in 2003.
I also know that this is a team that needs to be hot to make a deep run. Would you rather the NCAA tournament start tomorrow or last month when we were rolling?
Yeah, but "we were rolling" in the first half of the BE season because we were playing, what has turned out to be, the bottom half of the Big East. 3 of our 9 wins are vs. the top half. 6 of our wins are vs. the bottom half.
In short .. our team is our team. I don't believe we were hot back then, nor are we cold now.
Yeah, I disagree on a couple points. Part of the reason I think the double-bye is important is because of NCAA seeding. A top four team in the BE gets a better seed, or is almost guaranteed a top four seed (IMO). That means MU gets to play in Minneapolis.
Also, I do think that the team was playing better before and is not playing as well now. KB needs to look at the pretty picture I had in the stats post recapping 'Nova!
I agree that Big East tourney seeding and performance is important because it affects NCAA seeding. If MU had lost to ND last year it probably wouldn't have had the #6 NCAA seed and would have played somebody better than Kentucky in the first round and better than Stanford if it made it to the second.
I will be thrilled if MU makes it to 13-5. Because I don't see them beating any of the top 3, that means they would be winning the other 4, including Georgetown and Syracuse, both tough games.
If MU gets to 13-5 that way, my guess is that it won't be good enough because I don't expect Villanova to lose 3 more.
I also agree that MU isn't really playing any better or worse now than they were earlier in the season. The USF game was horrible, but they played pretty poorly in significant parts of several other games against lesser teams (Rutgers and DePaul). I hope they don't let St. John's hang around and get any illusions of winning.
The "Sword of Damacles" that has been hanging over the team all season (the last 5 games) will be falling soon and we'll find out a lot about this team. Maybe they'll surprise me.
I wouldn't trade wins against Notre Dame for anything.
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