It would take second best performance of year to beat Nova

Even a one-point win at Nova would be MUs 2nd best performance this year, based on Sagarin's calculations (opponent's predictor + margin + home court advantage):

#12 Notre Dame (home) 86 + 22 -4 = 104
#13 Villanova 88 + 1 + 4 = 93 (hypothetical 1 pt win)
#17 Louisville 88 -1 + 4 = 91
#89 Rutgers 78 + 8 + 4 = 90
#136 UWGB 73 + 20 -4 = 89
#24 Vanderbilt 86 -1 + 4 = 89
#14 Syracuse 87 + 6 -4 = 89
#16 West Virginia 88 + 5 -4 = 89
#6 Duke 93 -5 + 0 = 88
#4 Pitt 91 -8 + 4 = 87
#12 Notre Dame (away) 86 -5 + 4 = 85
#97 Bucknell 77 + 11 -4 = 84
#57 Gonzaga 83 -3 + 0 = 80
#15 Wisconsin 89 -5 -4 = 80
#147 UWM 72 + 3 + 4 = 79
#10 UConn 87 -8 -4 = 75

Based on Sagarin’s ratings, defeating Villanova tomorrow night would require Marquette’s 2nd best performance of the year. For those who don’t follow him, Sagarin basically calculates how good a team is in terms of a raw number. Ohio State is the best in the country at a 94, while Chicago State and Centenary are the worst at a 51. So if Ohio State plays either of them on a neutral court, OSU wins by 43 points, and home by 47 and if they traveled to one of them by 39 – home court is worth 4 points.

So basically on a given night a team gets a rating based on the opponent’s number, how much they won or lost by, and where the game was played.

The best game of the year is, as no surprise, the win over Notre Dame. The Irish are an 86, MU beat them by 22 (equals 108), but we take away 4 points for the home court advantage and MU’s rating that night was a 104. Certainly ND had one player out and his calculations don’t account for injuries, but even taking a few points away, a score of 95 or higher means MU would have beaten Ohio State or anyone else in the country that night on a neutral floor.

#12 Notre Dame (home) 86 + 22 -4 = 104

The problem and opportunity going into tomorrow night is that Villanova is an 88, and with a 4-point advantage, MU would have to be a 93 for the night to pull the upset on the road. Except for the one ND game, MU hasn’t done that last year. In six of the other 15 games against top 150 teams, MU has scored right between 89 and 91, which is enough to beat anyone except a Sweet 16 team on a neutral court, but none of these performances has been good enough to beat Nova on the road – so hopefully tomorrow night is a breakthrough.

#13 Villanova 88 + 1 + 4 = 93 (hypothetical 1 point win)
#17 Louisville 88 -1 + 4 = 91
#89 Rutgers 78 + 8 + 4 = 90
#136 UWGB 73 + 20 -4 = 89
#24 Vanderbilt 86 -1 + 4 = 89
#14 Syracuse 87 + 6 -4 = 89
#16 West Virginia 88 + 5 -4 = 89

In four other games MU has scored between an 84 and 88, which is enough to beat anyone in the bottom half of the NCAA bracket – just not the top 32 teams. In theory, if MU gets at least a No. 8 seed, this means that 11 of 15 times this year MU has played well enough to beat a 9-seed or higher in the opening round.

#6 Duke 93 -5 + 0 = 88
#4 Pitt 91 -8 + 4 = 87
#12 Notre Dame (away) 86 -5 + 4 = 85
#97 Bucknell 77 + 11 -4 = 84

Finally, MU has laid an egg four times in 15 outings, most recently with the home court advantage against UConn. A score of 80 or lower means in theory MU would not have been able to beat any of the 60 or so teams at least on the bubble for an at-large bid.

#57 Gonzaga 83 -3 + 0 = 80
#15 Wisconsin 89 -5 -4 = 80
#147 UWM 72 + 3 + 4 = 79
#10 UConn 87 -8 -4 = 75

So Sagarin, like Pomeroy, predict a 7 point loss at Nova tomorrow. A win of any kind would rank right behind the Notre Dame win for the best of the season. Right now, and I hate to bring up a sore subject, the Louisville loss is still the second best performance of the year. Of course, the first 35 minutes were a better performance than even the Notre Dame win.