Marquette Elitism?

Dr. Blackheart is back for more, this time looking at the concept of Marquette Elitisim -- topical given the ongoing 'Buzz Williams to NAME A SOUTHERN UNIVERSITY' speculation that is driving many fans completely bonkers.

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Marquette University is one of only 12 basketball programs that have made six straight NCAA Tournament appearances, including: Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Villanova, Wisconsin and Xavier. Over the past five Big Dances, these teams have won two national championships, reached five Final Fours, thirteen Elite 8’s, and twenty-six Sweet Sixteens. Every team but one has at least a Sweet 16 finish. Six of these teams had three Sweet 16 finishes or better (including Xavier the last three in a row), and three others had two Sweet 16’s or better. The Sweet 16 outlier? I think we know the painful answer to that question—even despite the presence of (then) four future NBA players.

As a result, the MU fan base has morphed itself into a group of tortured artists, doubting every good win, over-analyzing every close loss (which have been many), and agonizing over every freak injury, missed Jim Burr call, or Buzz rumor or decision. However, the fact that MU has now made the NCAA Dance every year it has been a member of the Big East is amazing, and a sure sign of a great program.

Three in a Row…

Buzz Williams and Hank Raymonds are the only MU head coaches in history who have made the NCAA’s their first three seasons at the helm. Both inherited a strong returning group of players, but Buzz’s journey was tougher due to the roster/recruit turnover when Tom Crean left for Indiana. Previously, I reviewed Dan Hanner’s blog piece which singled out Buzz’s performance among the up and coming coaches hired 2-3 years ago. It was also pointed out that many MU coaching alums drew note in Hanner’s blog piece—a strong sign of MU’s elite coaching tree.
So, taking some liberty with Pomeroy’s statistics (meant to be reflective of a current season, but consistent enough in methodology and statistical ranges to use here for discussion purposes across the past three seasons), I compiled Pomeroy averages on overall ratings (Pythagorean), offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, and the difference between the two to compare all D1 teams. This can provide a relative measuring stick on how well Buzz’s Warriors rank versus the elite programs.

So let’s take a look at MU over these trio of years versus other top teams.

• Buzz’s teams rack-up as #23 on the overall rating tote board, or 7th in the Big East with ND on our heels. The Top 25 summary clearly shows who the consistently elite teams are, and that the Big East dominates.
• Offensively, MU’s offensive efficiency ranked a superb #9 nationally, third in the BE and just behind the Badgers who are sixth nationally.
• Defensively, MU is 52nd nationally (only Top 25 Overall teams are shown) and 9th in the BE. Clearly a weak link when talking elite.
• On offense-defense differential, MU’s +21.2 positive gap ranks 19th, tied with Georgetown and our future foe Xavier.
• X Outlook: Offensively, MU is slightly better than Xavier. The X-Men are a better defensively. The gap is a wash as is the Vegas line. Will MU finally break-through to the Sweet 16? Rob shows that teams who play good defense are the ones who advance deep. However, for the first time in five seasons, MU has a post-presence advantage in the NCAA, so I am predicting a MU win on Friday and a long-deserved Sweet 16 trip after a season sweep of Syracuse on Sunday.
  

3 Year Kpom Pyth Rank	Team/2011 Seed	3 Year Off. Eff. AVG.	3 Year Def. Eff. AVG.	O VS. D Gap
1	Duke 1	120.3	87.9	32.3
2	Kansas 1	118.8	88.1	30.7
3	Syracuse 3	116.9	90.2	26.6
4	Pittsburgh 1	117.8	91.2	26.6
5	Purdue 3	111.3	87.1	24.3
6	West Virginia 5	115.0	90.1	24.9
7	Ohio St. 1	118.7	91.4	27.3
8	Texas 4	113.7	89.4	24.2
9	Brigham Young 3	116.2	91.8	24.4
10	Louisville 4	113.1	89.1	24.0
11	Wisconsin 4	117.3	92.8	24.4
12	Washington 7	114.0	91.1	22.9
13	Kentucky 4	114.1	89.8	24.4
14	Missouri 11	114.1	90.8	23.2
15	Villanova 9	115.4	92.9	22.5
16	Connecticut 3	112.9	89.5	23.4
17	North Carolina 2	114.3	90.2	24.1
18	Clemson 12	111.6	90.6	21.0
19	Michigan St. 10	112.3	90.7	21.6
20	Xavier 6	113.3	92.1	21.2
21	Georgetown 6	113.9	92.7	21.2
22	San Diego St. 2	111.2	90.3	20.9
23	Marquette 11	115.7	94.6	21.2
24	Kansas St. 5	112.0	91.2	20.8
25	Notre Dame 2	119.0	97.3	21.7

Let’s Go (Marquette)!

So, is MU an elite program today or is it a qualified stepping stone? Consecutive NCAA appearances say yes. Coaching tree says yes. Offensive efficiency says yes. History, financials, facilities and attendance say yes. Recruiting says close. NCAA finishes and defense say not yet. Will Buzz continue to build his legacy at MU? The Elite Tag tipping point will be decided this weekend.

Let the hand wringing begin.