Measuring MUs bracket opponent - list of strengths of all potential NCAA teams

When MUs opponent is announced tonight, scan this list for them and my bracket formula would indicate MU is a favorite if the first number by them is 85 or lower, while MU would be the underdog if the number is 87 or higher.

This year Kansas, Kentucky and North Carolina are the three tournament teams with four projected NBA draft picks in their line-up according to www.nbadraft.net. It typically takes at least three NBA-level players to make the big run, and certainly Ohio State has that with three of the next 32 collegiate players expected to be drafted.

The following table runs through the evolving formula I use to give the chance to indicate how well teams typically do in the tournament based on their NBA talent, experience, how hot they are coming into the tournament, and - most important - just how good they are based on their Sagarin rating.

MU has slightly more experience than average based on www.kenpom.com (giving them a +0.7), but is just about average as a "warm" team coming in, so MUs bracket rating is about the same as Sagarin. MU gets no credit for projected NBA draft picks because I've always used www.nbadraft.net which doesn't have anyone going in the next two drafts, BUT draftexpress does have Jimmy Butler going in the second round.

However, the future is bright as MU is one of only four teams with four freshman or sophomores listed among the 110 players who might go in the 2013 or 2014 draft with draftnet rating Junior Cadougan, Jamil Wilson, Jamail Jones and Vander Blue - if at least three develop into projected picks, MU could make a deep run.

School	Bracket Rating	Sagarin	Hot/injury	Experience	NBA talent	Projected NBA Draft Players
Akron	73	74	Hot	1.3	0.0	None-6-8 Nikola Cvetinovic best
Alabama	82	82	Cold	0.1	1.4	82, JaMychal Green, 6-8
Alabama State	59	61	Hot	0.7	0.0	None-6-4 Kendererk Washington best
Arizona	89	87	Warm	-1.2	4.0	1, Derrick Williams, 6-foot-9; 99, Kyle Fogg, 6-3
Ark.-Little Rock	71	69	Warm	2.0	0.0	None-6-0 Solomon Bozeman best
Belmont	89	86	Redhot	-0.4	0.0	None-6-3 Ian Clark best
Boston College	83	81	Cold	2.4	1.5	77, Reggie Jackson, 6-foot-3
Boston University	74	71	Redhot	-0.8	0.0	None-6-5 John Holland
Bucknell	80	77	Redhot	-0.6	0.0	None-6-10 Mike Muscala best
Butler	90	83	Redhot	1.3	2.1	48, Shelvin Mack, 6--foot-2
BYU	92	90	Freezing	0.9	2.9	8, Jimmer Fredette, 6-foot-2
Cincinnati	85	86	Hot	0.9	0.0	None-6-9 Yancy Gates best
Clemson	85	84	Warm	1.2	0.0	None-6-8 Jerai Grant best
Colorado	84	82	Hot	0.9	2.9	7, Alec Burks, 6-foot-6
Dayton	74	77	Hot	-0.4	0.0	None-6-8 Chris Wright best
Duke	96	94	Cold	-0.2	8.2	2, Kyrie Irving (inj-rate 100 if comes back), 6-foot-2; 17, Nolan Smith, 6-3; 24, Kyle Singler, 6-9
Florida	93	86	Redhot	0.0	2.3	34, Chandler Parsons, 6-foot-8
Florida St.	88	84	Warm	0.0	4.0	4, Chris Singleton, 6-foot-9; 90, Xavier Gibson, 6-10
George Mason	85	85	Hot	0.4	2.2	41, Cam Long, 6-foot-4
Georgetown	87	86	Freezing	1.1	2.2	42, Austin Freeman, 6-foot-4
Georgia	87	81	Warm	1.3	4.2	19, Trey Thompkins, 6-foot-10; 71, Travis Leslie, 6-4
Gonzaga	88	85	Redhot	-1.2	0.0	None-7-0 Robert Sacre best
Hampton	71	69	Warm	2.0	0.0	None-6-6 Darrion Pellum best
Illinois	93	87	Warm	1.1	4.2	37, Demetri McCamey, 6-foot3; 56, Jereme Richmond, 6-7
Indiana State	79	75	Redhot	-0.2	0.0	None-6-3 Dwayne Lathan best
Kansas	108	94	Redhot	1.1	8.9	10, Marcus Morris, 6-foot-9; 13, Markieff Morris, 6-10; 62, Thomas Robinson, 6-8; 75, Josh Shelby, 6-2
Kansas State	84	85	Hot	-0.8	2.1	47, Jacob Pullen, 6-foot-0
Kentucky	102	90	Redhot	-2.2	10.3	3, Enes Kanter, 6-foot-11; 9, Terrence Jones, 6-8; 11, Brandon Knight, 6-3; 67, Doron Lamb, 6-4
Long Island University	79	75	Redhot	-0.1	0.0	None-6-7 Julian Boyd best
Louisville	92	89	Redhot	-0.4	0.0	None-6-1 Peyton Siva best
Marquette	86	85	Warm	0.7	0.0	None-6-7 Jimmy Butler best
Memphis	73	77	Hot	-3.8	1.2	91, Wesley Witherspoon, 6-7
Michigan	86	83	Redhot	-3.2	2.3	35, Darius Morris, 6-foot-4
Michigan St.	86	84	Warm	1.0	1.6	70, Draymond Green, 6-6
Missouri	88	85	Cold	0.0	4.5	58, Tony Mitchell, 6-foot-8; 85, Laurence Bowers, 6-8; 87, Ricardo Ratcliffe, 6-9
Missouri State	82	79	Warm	2.9	0.0	None-6-6 Kyle Weems best
Morehead St.	80	76	Hot	2.7	2.6	20, Kenneth Faried, 6-foot-8
New Mexico	81	83	Hot	-1.5	1.1	94, Drew Gordon, 6-foot-9
North Carolina	99	89	Redhot	-2.4	8.0	5, Harrison Barnes, 6-foot-8; 60, Kendall Marshall, 6-3; 66, John Henson, 6-10; 73, Tyler Zeller, 6-11
Northern Colorado	81	75	Redhot	1.3	0.0	None-6-1 Devon Beitzel best
Notre Dame	96	89	Redhot	2.9	0.0	None-6-3 Ben Hansbrough best
Oakland	88	81	Redhot	0.8	2.4	29, Keith Benson, 6-foot-11
Ohio State	103	95	Warm	-0.4	7.9	4, Jared Sullinger, 6-foot-9; 22, William Buford, 6-5; 32, David Lighty, 6-6
Old Dominion	89	81	Redhot	3.3	0.0	None-6-8 Frank Hassell best
Penn State	88	82	Redhot	2.1	0.0	None-6-0 Taylor Battle best
Pittsburgh	95	91	Warm	1.0	3.1	50, Brad Wanamaker, 6-foot-4; 97, Ashton Gibbs, 6-2
Princeton	76	77	Hot	0.7	0.0	None-6-7 Ian Hummer best
Purdue	95	91	Hot	0.4	4.9	21, JaJuan Johnson, 6-foot-10; 38, E'twaun Moore, 6-3
Richmond	86	83	Hot	2.4	2.4	31, Justin Harper, 6-foot-10
Saint Mary's-Cal.	82	84	Cold	-0.3	0.0	None-6-0 Mickey McConnell best
Saint Peter's	75	73	Warm	1.8	0.0	None-6-7 Ryan Bacon best
San Diego St.	97	89	Redhot	1.4	2.8	12, Kawhi Leonard, 6-foot-7
St. Johns	95	85	Redhot	3.9	2.2	43, Justin Brownlee, 6-foot-7
Syracuse	90	89	Hot	-1.2	4.3	30, Rick Jackson, 6-foot-9; 59, Kris Joseph, 6-7
Temple	82	84	Hot	0.4	0.0	None - 6-4 Ramone Moore best
Tennessee	87	82	Cold	0.8	5.3	26, Tobias Harris, 6-foot-8; 79, Cameron Tatum, 6-6; 83, Scotty Hopson, 6-7
Texas	96	92	Cold	-0.9	7.3	15, Tristan Thompson, 6-foot-9; 18, Jordan Hamilton, 6-7; 57, Cory Joseph, 6-3
Texas A&M	86	84	Warm	0.5	1.9	55, Khris Middleton, 6-foot-7
Texas-San Antonio(UTSA)	65	68	Hot	-0.9	0.0	None-6-0 Devin Gibson best
UAB	81	81	Warm	-0.4	0.0	None-6-4 Jamarr Sanders best
UC Santa Barbara	76	74	Warm	1.8	0.0	None-6-5 Orlando Johnson best
UCLA	85	82	Warm	-2.0	5.1	16, Tyler Honeycutt, 6-foot-8; 33, Malcolm Lee, 6-5
UConn	90	87	Redhot	-3.0	2.6	23, Kemba Walker, 6-foot-1
UNLV	85	87	Hot	0.4	0.0	None-6-4 Tre'Von Willis best
USC	83	83	Hot	0.6	1.2	89, Nikola Vucevic, 6-foot-10
Utah State	88	86	Hot	3.4	0.0	None-6-7 Tai Wesley best
UTEP	84	80	Warm	3.2	0.0	None-6-0 Randy Culpeper best
Vanderbilt	90	86	Warm	-0.7	4.8	64, John Jenkins, 6-foot-4; 74, Jeffery Taylor, 6-7; 76, Festus, 6-11
VCU	80	78	Warm	1.8	0.0	None-6-9 Jamie Skeen best
Villanova	89	86	Freezing	0.8	3.9	52, Corey Fisher, 6-foot-1; 53, Maalik Wayns, 6-1
Virginia Tech	87	85	Warm	2.0	0.0	None-6-3 Malcolm Delaney best
Washington	91	89	Hot	1.0	2.1	44, Matthew Bryan-Am…, 6-8
West Virginia	88	87	Hot	2.7	0.0	None- 6-8 Kevin Jones best
Wisconsin	96	90	Warm	1.1	4.7	27, Jon Leuer, 6-foot-11; 96, Jordan Taylor, 6-1
Wofford	79	77	Hot	4.0	0.0	None-6-6 Noah Dahlman best
Xavier	90	83	Redhot	1.5	1.1	95, Tu Holloway, 6-foot-0

The first number is the overall rating I used when pitting teams against each other in the bracket - with up to a 2-point adjustment for a semi-home game once we know where two teams are playing each other.

The Sagarin rating is the next number listed, and is the main basis for the bracket rating.

A team gets a +4 if they are "red hot," +2 for "hot," no change for "warm," -2 for "cold" and -4 if a key player is missing or they have been very cold recently.

The experience rating is based on the Pomeroy rating based on how many seniors, juniors, sophomores and freshmen are typically on the court.

Finally, the NBA talent rating gives 4 points for the first college player expected to be picked (Derrick Williams of Arizona) down to 1 point for the last college player expected to be picked in next year's draft.