The new www.rpiforecast.com is updated through the Seton Hall loss, so at this point a quick rundown of the only two things that can affect a bid to MU - what we do in the Big East Tournament and what other teams do in their tournaments.
First, after the Seton Hall loss, our final RPI cold be anywhere from 85th to 22nd, based on how we do:
Final RPILose to Providence – 85th – NIT
Beat Providence, lose to WVU – 67th – NCAA unless destroyed by WVU
Beat Providence & WVU, lose to Lville – 53rd – Top 8 seed
Beat Prov, WVU, Lville, lose ND – 41st – high seed
Beat Prov, WVU, Lville, ND, lose to Pitt – 32nd
Beat Prov, WVU, Lville, ND & Pitt – 22nd
Spoilers
Second, my projection of an NCAA bid with just one win assumes two or three spoilers in other tournaments. Most tournaments don't matter because only one team goes from them, but here are is a list of all tournaments and who we want to root for in certain ones. If 5 or 6 spoilers win their tournaments, then MUs bid could be in double with just the Providence win. If there are no spoilers at all, we literally could get in the tournament even losing to Providence.
| Conference | Root for | Chance of Spoiler | Most likely spoiler |
|---|---|---|---|
| A10 | Xavier, Temple | 45% | Richmond, Dayton |
| ACC | Duke, UNC or at least Va Tech, Clemson | 23% | BC, Flo State |
| AE | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| ASun | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| B10 | OSU, Purdue, Wisc, Illinois or at least Mich or Mich State | less than10% | Minn, PSU, NW |
| B12 | Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, K-State or at least Nebraska or Colorado | less than10% | OK State, Baylor |
| BE | MU - otherwise one of top 10 teams | less than10% | Seton Hall |
| BSky | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| BSth | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| BW | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| CAA | ODU, GMU | less than20% | VCU, Drexel |
| CUSA | UAB or at least Memphis, Central Flo or UTEP | 88% | Southern Miss |
| Horz | Butler, but may not matter | less than10% | Cleveland St., UWM, Valp |
| Ivy | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| MAAC | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| MAC | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| MEAC | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| MVC | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| MWC | BYU, SD State, UNLV or at least New Mexico | less than10% | Colorado State |
| NEC | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| OVC | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| P10 | Arizona, Washington or UCLA | 21% | Wash St. or USC |
| Pat | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| SB | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| SC | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| SEC | Florida, Kentucky, Vandy, Tenn or at least Georgia | less than10% | Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas |
| Slnd | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| Sum | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| SWAC | Doesn't matter | 0% | |
| WAC | Utah State | 26% | Hawaii or Boise State |
| WCC | St. Mary's or Gonzaga | less than10% | Portland |
1 comment:
An avid Notre Dame fan here. Props to you for putting so much work into this blog.
I think your analysis of the bubble is a little off. Florida State is in better shape than both Clemson and Va Tech, so I wouldn't consider them much of a spoiler. Washington is also in a ton of trouble, they play WSU in the Pac 10 tourney in what may be an elimination game. Southern Miss is also much closer to the bubble than Central Florida.
Keep up the good work and Notre Dame will still figure out ways to lose in Milwaukee.
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