I've traditionally been one of the more optimistic prognosticators, with a 12-6 conference prediction for last season (compared to the eventual 9-9 conference record), 14-4 for 2008 (compared to 11-7 in James' injury season), 13-5 for 2009 (close to our final 12-6 record), and probably the only person on the planet who thought we would do well in 2010. when we actually turned in a respectable 11-7 league mark.
This year, I find myself closer to the Cracked Sidewalks average.
I found this probably the most difficult season in the last six or eight years to judge. We have a ton of potential--probably more than any year since the Final Four. But a lot of that potential hasn't been realized yet.
If even one or two of the question marks on this year's team are answered in Marquette's favor, we stand a great chance of a top-4 finish. If all of them go our way, we may well challenge for a league title.
As I see it, the questions are:
- Can Jamil Wilson and Vander Blue elevate their level of play above their frosh performances (at MU and Oregon respectively) and achieve the expectations created by their top-50 RSCI HS rankings?
- Can Junior Cadougan improve his effectiveness as the primary ball-handler and build upon Dwight Buycks' surprisingly strong performance in the role in 2011?
- Can Davante Gardner improve his defense enough so that we see his tremendous offensive skills on the court more often?
- Can DJO continue his strong performance once he becomes the primary target of opposing defenses, as opposed to the secondary stop after Jimmy Butler?
- Can Chris Otule avoid the injuries that hampered his first two seasons?
As I said, two or three of those go our way, It's going to be a great season. All of them? There is no ceiling on this team.
| Opponent | Location | Rob | Tim | Kevin | John | James | Alan | Dr | Steve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount St. Mary's | H | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Norfolk State | H | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Winthrop | N | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Drake/Mississippi | N | W | W | W | L | W | W | W | W |
| Paradise Jam Game 3 | N | W | L | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville | H | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Wisconsin | A | L | L | L | L | L | L | W | L |
| Washington | N | L | L | L | W | L | W | L | L |
| Green Bay | H | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Northern Colorado | H | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| LSU | A | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | L |
| Milwaukee | H | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Vanderbilt | H | W | L | W | W | L | L | W | W |
| Villanova | H | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown | A | L | W | L | L | W | W | W | L |
| Syracuse | A | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| St. John's | H | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Pittsburgh | H | W | W | W | L | W | W | W | W |
| Louisville | H | W | W | L | W | W | W | L | L |
| Providence | A | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| South Florida | H | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Villanova | A | W | L | L | L | L | W | L | L |
| Seton Hall | H | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Notre Dame | A | L | W | L | W | L | L | L | W |
| DePaul | A | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Cincinnati | H | W | W | W | L | W | W | W | W |
| Connecticut | A | L | L | L | W | L | L | L | L |
| Rutgers | H | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| West Virginia | A | W | L | L | L | L | W | W | W |
| Cincinnati | A | L | W | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| Georgetown | H | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Consensus | Rob | Tim | Kevin | John | James | Alan | Dr | Steve | |
| Wins | 22.9 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 25 | 24 | 22 |
| Losses | 8.1 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| Conference Wins | 12.3 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| Conference Losses | 5.8 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
Comments on the Non-Conference slate:
- Our first test will come in the final of the Paradise Jam. Assuming Virginia is our opponent, the Cavaliers were a top-20 3 point shooting team last year, and MU was a poor 3 point defender.
- I believe the short turnaround will hurt us at LSU. MU is clearly the more talented team, but a Saturday home game followed by a Monday game in Baton Rouge will be a difficult short turnaround. Not only does LSU have two more days of rest, they won't be traveling.
- We'll make up for the LSU game by taking a win over top-10 Vanderbilt.
- Bottom Third: DePaul, Seton Hall, Rutgers, Providence, and South Florida: We'll take all five of these games.
- Middle Third: GU, VU, WVU, ND and St. Johns: First, MU should take all home games here--that means wins over GU, VU, and St. Johns. ND and WVU on the road will be challenging but we will be the better team on paper--those games represent the best opportunity for a quality league road victory. I think we split in our crossover games against Georgetown and Villanova.
- Top Third: UL, UConn, Pitt, Syracuse & Cincinnati: It will take a significant effort win on the road against any of these teams, and even the home games will be difficult. I think we lose some of our home court advantage against UL due to the timing of the game and we'll wind up with a loss. Pitt has less experience than last year--if Buzz avoids the distraction of making this a "grudge match" due to Pitt's departure from the Big East, we should win. Cincy has an experienced team and returns some good talent--we play them twice and I think we'll split.
Overall that makes for a 22-9/12-6 record. Enjoy the Ride!
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