PG out for visit to #7 Wisconsin? No problem for MU freshmen

DJO was dominant on offense and Vander Blue on defense, but the story today was that someone forgot to tell Marquette’s three freshman that when you visit a top 10 opponent, you have less than a 7 percent chance of winning. The odds get a lot worse when your starting point guard can’t play, and even worse when you can't go for steals after being whistled for four fouls in the first five minutes against the team that is the WORST team in the country at drawing fouls.

In the past decade, Marquette was just above the national average – going 1-11 when facing a Top 10 team on the road (based on www.kenpom) until upsetting UConn last year. Now Marquette has done it twice in a row – and the freshman were a big part of it.

vs. Top 10 on road	Rnk	Day	Season	Result	MU	Opp
Wisconsin	3	Sat Dec 3	2012	W	61	54
Connecticut	10	Thu Feb 24	2011	W	74	67
Pittsburgh	4	Sat Jan 8	2011	L	81	89
Syracuse	4	Sat Jan 23	2010	L	71	76
West Virginia	8	Tue Dec 29	2010	L	62	63
Wisconsin	9	Sat Dec 12	2010	L	63	72
Pittsburgh	5	Wed Mar 4	2009	L	75	90
Louisville	4	Sun Mar 1	2009	L	58	62
Louisville	6	Thu Jan 17	2008	L	51	71
Wisconsin	5	Sat Dec 8	2008	W	81	76
Georgetown	5	Sat Feb 10	2007	L	58	76
Villanova	7	Sat Feb 4	2006	L	67	72
Louisville	5	Wed Jan 26	2005	L	52	99
Wisconsin	5	Sat Dec 20	2004	L	59	63
Average score					65	74

Marquette's showings have been so impressive that Sagarin's predictor, which had MU as a 7-point underdog today, will most likely show Marquette as the favorite in EVERY GAME the rest of the season. Obviously they will not win every game, because if you have an 80% chance to win 10 games in a row, you usually go 8-2, but this is a new level never achieved by MU before.

And for the freshman:

Derrick Wilson started in front of the suspended Junior Cadougan, played 20 minutes without a turnover, meaning the former football star now has 2 turnovers in 102 minutes. When All-American candidate Jordan Taylor tried to drive to cut into Marquette’s 41-33 lead with 13:29 to go, Wilson took a charge in the open court to send Taylor to the bench with his 4th foul.

With Jae Crowder in foul trouble, Todd Mayo was able to get in 20 minutes. When Wisconsin cut it to 41-40, Mayo drove, was cut off by Badger big men, and kissed a lay-up off the top of the glass. When Wisconsin was forced to press with 20 seconds left, Taylor tried to guard Mayo, but Mayo left him in the dust for a long in-bound pass and two-handed monster jam to make it 61-51 with 14 points from Mayo – GAME OVER. A meaningless three-pointer by Wisconsin at the end made the score sound respectable for a team that had only lost AT UNC by 3 points – indicating they likely would have beaten the Tar Heels in Madison (the average point swing from home to away is 8 points).

Juan Anderson, the third freshman, had only played 7 minutes all year, but with only 10 Warriors suited up he went in for 7 more eminutes and grabbed 5 rebounds to help MU DOMINATE the boards 41-28 in a reversal of last year.

If Wisconsin had not hit the final meaningless three-pointer, than the win would have marked the third time THIS SEASON that Marquette has had one of the Top 10 performance of the DECADE. As posted earlier, a Game Score of more than 100 means that the team likely could have beaten anyone in the country that night – and MU has done that 3 times in 7 games this year after doing it just 20 times in more than 200 games starting with the Final Four team.

Here are the top 20 performances of the decade based on a simplified game version of the Sagarin predictor model (Margin of victory, plus or minus 4 for home venue, plus opponent’s predictor value):

Top 20 Marquette performances in past decade based on Game Score Method:

Rnk	Opponent	Date	Year	Mar	Opp	Ven	Game Score
1	Mount St. Mary's	Fri Nov 11	2012	54	66	-4	116
2	Oklahoma St.	Tue Nov 20	2008	30	82	0	112
3	Detroit	Tue Nov 14	2007	42	73	-4	111
4	Northern Iowa	Fri Nov 28	2009	30	79	0	109
5	St. John's	Wed Mar 11	2009	29	76	4	109
6	Kentucky	Sat Mar 29	2003	14	94	0	108
7	West Virginia	Sat Jan 10	2009	22	90	-4	108
8	Cincinnati	Sun Jan 4	2009	34	78	-4	108
9	Mississippi	Sun Nov 20	2012	30	78	0	108
10	Notre Dame	Mon Jan 10	2011	22	89	-4	107
11	Notre Dame	Sat Jan 12	2008	26	85	-4	107
12	Seton Hall	Tue Feb 12	2008	25	77	4	106
13	Providence	Thu Jan 3	2008	29	80	-4	105
14	South Florida	Sat Jan 11	2003	33	76	-4	105
15	Coppin St.	Fri Dec 21	2008	47	62	-4	105
16	Wisconsin	Sat Dec 3	2012	7	93	4	104
17	Providence	Sun Jan 17	2010	30	78	-4	104
18	Wisconsin Milwaukee	Fri Nov 30	2008	35	73	-4	104
19	Connecticut	Tue Jan 3	2006	15	91	-4	102
20	Louisville	Mon Jan 15	2007	9	89	4	102