Allen laid out the new potential NCAA bracket yesterday, and once it is actually set I will post the value of every player in the tournament by team to help you fill out your brackets. For now, I’ve listed the Top 200 players to date, with notes at the bottom on how well the Value Add system has fared based on the four questions Sports Illustrated asked about in August.
One item to stress, these are not measures of NBA potential - which is a whole different process I use - but of exactly how many points a player has added to his team's scores and taken away from the opponents' scores.
During my weekly appearance on ESPN Auburn I’ve stressed that the SEC has the most one-sided MVP race with Anthony Davis, and I’ve had a couple of previous blogs on Cracked Sidewalks on the back-and-forth between Jae Crowder and Kevin Jones in the top two spots in the Big East. However, it wasn’t until the engineer finished the program and I ran the whole country yesterday that I realized those were actually the three most valuable players in the country, despite the Big Ten’s dominant play this year that has resulted in them having five of the 10 Most Valuable Players in the country.
| Rnk | Players | Team | Ht | Yr | Off | Def | Tot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Davis | Kentucky | 6'10" | Fr | 6.7 | -5.4 | 12.2 |
| 2 | Jae Crowder | Marquette | 6'6" | Sr | 6 | -4.2 | 10.2 |
| 3 | Kevin Jones | West Virginia | 6'8" | Sr | 8.3 | -1.5 | 9.8 |
| 4 | Damian Lillard | WeberSt. | 6'2" | Jr | 8.7 | 1 | 9.2 |
| 5 | Cody Zeller | Indiana | 6'11" | Fr | 6.8 | -2 | 8.8 |
| 6 | Jordan Taylor | Wisconsin | 6'1" | Sr | 4.9 | -1.3 | 8.7 |
| 7 | Thomas Robinson | Kansas | 6'9" | Jr | 4.6 | -4.1 | 8.7 |
| 8 | Jared Sullinger | Ohio St. | 6'9" | So | 5.1 | -3.5 | 8.6 |
| 9 | John Shurna | Northwestern | 6'9" | Sr | 7.3 | -1 | 8.3 |
| 10 | Aaron Craft | Ohio St. | 6'2" | So | 2.3 | -2.4 | 8.3 |
| 11 | Shabazz Napier | Connecticut | 6'0" | So | 3.9 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Jeffery Taylor | Vanderbilt | 6'7" | Sr | 5.6 | -1.2 | 7.9 |
| 13 | Draymond Green | Michigan St. | 6'7" | Sr | 4 | -3.8 | 7.8 |
| 14 | Marcus Denmon | Missouri | 6'3" | Sr | 7.2 | -0.5 | 7.7 |
| 15 | Doug McDermott | Creighton | 6'7" | So | 7.6 | 0 | 7.6 |
| 16 | Mike Scott | Virginia | 6'8" | Sr | 5.9 | -1.7 | 7.6 |
| 17 | Will Barton | Memphis | 6'6" | So | 5.3 | -2.1 | 7.4 |
| 18 | Matthew Dellavedova | St.Mary's | 6'4" | Jr | 5.3 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 19 | Trevor Releford | Alabama | 6'0" | So | 3.3 | -2.5 | 7.3 |
| 20 | Nate Wolters | SouthDakotaSt. | 6'4" | Jr | 5.6 | -0.1 | 7.2 |
| 21 | Scott Machado | Iona | 6'1" | Sr | 5.4 | -0.3 | 7.2 |
| 22 | Kenny Boynton | Florida | 6'2" | Jr | 7.1 | 0 | 7.1 |
| 23 | Tyler Zeller | North Carolina | 7'0" | Sr | 4.8 | -2.2 | 7 |
| 24 | Jeff Withey | Kansas | 7'0" | Jr | 3.8 | -3.1 | 6.9 |
| 25 | Dominique Morrison | OralRoberts | 6'6" | Sr | 6.8 | 0 | 6.8 |
| 26 | John Jenkins | Vanderbilt | 6'4" | Jr | 6.7 | 0 | 6.7 |
| 27 | Jack Cooley | Notre Dame | 6'9" | Jr | 4.7 | -2 | 6.7 |
| 28 | C.J. McCollum | Lehigh | 6'3" | Jr | 4.7 | -2 | 6.7 |
| 29 | Ken Horton | CentralConnecticut | 6'6" | Sr | 4.1 | -2.6 | 6.7 |
| 30 | J'Covan Brown | Texas | 6'1" | Jr | 6.3 | -0.3 | 6.6 |
| 31 | Tyshawn Taylor | Kansas | 6'3" | Sr | 3.7 | -0.1 | 6.4 |
| 32 | Tu Holloway | Xavier | 6'0" | Sr | 4.1 | -0.4 | 6.4 |
| 33 | Ryan Broekhoff | Valparaiso | 6'7" | Jr | 5.4 | -0.8 | 6.3 |
| 34 | Khalif Wyatt | Temple | 6'4" | Jr | 4.9 | -1.4 | 6.3 |
| 35 | Kris Joseph | Syracuse | 6'7" | Sr | 4.4 | -1.9 | 6.3 |
| 36 | Maalik Wayns | Villanova | 6'2" | Jr | 4.2 | 0 | 6.2 |
| 37 | Ricardo Ratliffe | Missouri | 6'8" | Sr | 5.3 | -0.9 | 6.2 |
| 38 | Mike Moser | NevadaLasVegas | 6'8" | So | 2.5 | -3.6 | 6.2 |
| 39 | Isaiah Canaan | MurraySt. | 6'0" | Jr | 5.9 | -0.2 | 6.1 |
| 40 | Seth Curry | Duke | 6'2" | Jr | 4.3 | -0.4 | 6.1 |
| 41 | Jeremy Lamb | Connecticut | 6'5" | So | 5.4 | -0.8 | 6.1 |
| 42 | Quincy Acy | Baylor | 6'7" | Sr | 3.8 | -2.3 | 6.1 |
| 43 | Arsalan Kazemi | Rice | 6'7" | Jr | 3.5 | -2.7 | 6.1 |
| 44 | Robbie Hummel | Purdue | 6'8" | Sr | 4.7 | -1.3 | 6 |
| 45 | Larry Anderson | LongBeachSt. | 6'5" | Sr | 4.7 | -1.3 | 6 |
| 46 | Jason Clark | Georgetown | 6'2" | Sr | 3.5 | -2.5 | 5.9 |
| 47 | Gorgui Dieng | Louisville | 6'10" | So | 2.4 | -3.5 | 5.9 |
| 48 | Langston Galloway | SaintJoseph's | 6'2" | So | 5.7 | -0.1 | 5.8 |
| 49 | Scoop Jardine | Syracuse | 6'2" | Sr | 2.4 | -1.4 | 5.8 |
| 50 | Chase Tapley | SanDiegoSt. | 6'2" | Jr | 3.8 | -2.1 | 5.8 |
| 51 | Reggie Hamilton | Oakland | 5'11" | Sr | 6.2 | 2 | 5.7 |
| 52 | Doron Lamb | Kentucky | 6'4" | So | 5.7 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 53 | Dion Waiters | Syracuse | 6'4" | So | 3.3 | -2.4 | 5.7 |
| 54 | Terrence Jones | Kentucky | 6'9" | So | 3.1 | -2.6 | 5.7 |
| 55 | John Henson | North Carolina | 6'10" | Jr | 2.6 | -3.1 | 5.7 |
| 56 | Austin Rivers | Duke | 6'4" | Fr | 3.1 | 0 | 5.6 |
| 57 | Michael Glover | Iona | 6'7" | Sr | 4.6 | -1 | 5.6 |
| 58 | Robert Covington | TennesseeSt. | 6'8" | Jr | 4.2 | -1.4 | 5.6 |
| 59 | Rodney McGruder | Kansas St. | 6'4" | Jr | 3.9 | -1.7 | 5.6 |
| 60 | Terell Parks | WesternIllinois | 6'7" | Jr | 3.3 | -2.3 | 5.6 |
| 61 | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Kentucky | 6'7" | Fr | 3.3 | -2.4 | 5.6 |
| 62 | D'Aundray Brown | ClevelandSt. | 6'4" | Sr | 2.4 | -3.1 | 5.6 |
| 63 | Brian Conklin | St.Louis | 6'6" | Sr | 4.8 | -0.7 | 5.5 |
| 64 | Ryan Kelly | Duke | 6'11" | Jr | 4.3 | -1.1 | 5.5 |
| 65 | Garrett Stutz | WichitaSt. | 7'0" | Sr | 4 | -1.5 | 5.5 |
| 66 | Leonard Washington | Wyoming | 6'7" | Jr | 2.6 | -2.9 | 5.5 |
| 67 | Hollis Thompson | Georgetown | 6'8" | Jr | 4 | -1.4 | 5.4 |
| 68 | Drew Gordon | NewMexico | 6'9" | Sr | 1.8 | -3.6 | 5.4 |
| 69 | Fuquan Edwin | Seton Hall | 6'6" | So | 1.8 | -3.7 | 5.4 |
| 70 | Ashton Gibbs | Pittsburgh | 6'2" | Sr | 3.8 | 0 | 5.3 |
| 71 | Meyers Leonard | Illinois | 7'1" | So | 3.2 | -2.1 | 5.3 |
| 72 | Otto Porter | Georgetown | 6'8" | Fr | 2.6 | -2.7 | 5.3 |
| 73 | Matt Gatens | Iowa | 6'5" | Sr | 5.2 | 0 | 5.2 |
| 74 | Justin Hamilton | Louisiana St. | 6'11" | Jr | 3.9 | -1.3 | 5.2 |
| 75 | Mason Plumlee | Duke | 6'10" | Jr | 2.8 | -2.5 | 5.2 |
| 76 | Dee Bost | Mississippi St. | 6'2" | Sr | 3.1 | 0 | 5.1 |
| 77 | Zack Novak | Michigan | 6'4" | Sr | 4.7 | -0.4 | 5.1 |
| 78 | Jared Cunningham | Oregon St. | 6'4" | Jr | 3.3 | -0.8 | 5.1 |
| 79 | Donte Poole | MurraySt. | 6'3" | Sr | 3.6 | -1.6 | 5.1 |
| 80 | Pierce Hornung | ColoradoSt. | 6'5" | Jr | 3.5 | -1.6 | 5.1 |
| 81 | Erving Walker | Florida | 5'8" | Sr | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 82 | Dorian Green | ColoradoSt. | 6'2" | Jr | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 83 | Noah Hartsock | BrighamYoung | 6'8" | Sr | 4.6 | -0.4 | 5 |
| 84 | Kerron Johnson | Belmont | 6'1" | Jr | 4.5 | -0.5 | 5 |
| 85 | Erick Green | Virginia Tech | 6'3" | Jr | 4.3 | -0.7 | 5 |
| 86 | Allen Crabbe | California | 6'6" | So | 4.1 | -1 | 5 |
| 87 | Keith Clanton | CentralFlorida | 6'8" | Jr | 2.9 | -2 | 5 |
| 88 | Rob Jones | St.Mary's | 6'6" | Sr | 2.8 | -2.2 | 5 |
| 89 | Jared Berggren | Wisconsin | 6'10" | Jr | 2.3 | -2.8 | 5 |
| 90 | Harrison Barnes | North Carolina | 6'8" | So | 4.2 | -0.7 | 4.9 |
| 91 | Mike Muscala | Bucknell | 6'11" | Jr | 4.2 | -0.7 | 4.9 |
| 92 | Sean Kilpatrick | Cincinnati | 6'4" | So | 4 | -0.9 | 4.9 |
| 93 | Bradley Beal | Florida | 6'3" | Fr | 3.5 | -1.4 | 4.9 |
| 94 | Andrew Nicholson | St.Bonaventure | 6'9" | Sr | 3.2 | -1.7 | 4.9 |
| 95 | Bernard James | Florida St. | 6'10" | Sr | 1.8 | -3.1 | 4.9 |
| 96 | Deshaun Thomas | Ohio St. | 6'7" | So | 4.8 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 97 | Kendall Marshall | North Carolina | 6'3" | So | 2.2 | -0.1 | 4.8 |
| 98 | Justin Cobbs | California | 6'2" | So | 4.4 | -0.4 | 4.8 |
| 99 | Jerian Grant | Notre Dame | 6'5" | So | 4.3 | -0.5 | 4.8 |
| 100 | C.J. Aiken | SaintJoseph's | 6'9" | So | 3.4 | -1.4 | 4.8 |
| 101 | Rodney Williams | Minnesota | 6'7" | Jr | 3.1 | -1.7 | 4.8 |
| 102 | Terrell Stoglin | Maryland | 6'1" | So | 4.7 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 103 | Andre Young | Clemson | 5'9" | Sr | 4.6 | -0.2 | 4.7 |
| 104 | Kim English | Missouri | 6'6" | Sr | 4.3 | -0.3 | 4.7 |
| 105 | Seth Tuttle | NorthernIowa | 6'8" | Fr | 4 | -0.6 | 4.7 |
| 106 | Darius Johnson-Odom | Marquette | 6'2" | Sr | 4.1 | -0.7 | 4.7 |
| 107 | Tyreek Duren | LaSalle | 6'0" | So | 3.6 | -1.1 | 4.7 |
| 108 | Ryan Evans | Wisconsin | 6'6" | Jr | 2 | -2.8 | 4.7 |
| 109 | Herb Pope | Seton Hall | 6'8" | Sr | 1.6 | -3.1 | 4.7 |
| 110 | Devon Collier | Oregon St. | 6'7" | So | 4.6 | 0 | 4.6 |
| 111 | Stephen Holt | St.Mary's | 6'4" | So | 4.2 | -0.4 | 4.6 |
| 112 | Jake Cohen | Davidson | 6'1" | Jr | 4.1 | -0.5 | 4.6 |
| 113 | Pierre Jackson | Baylor | 5'10" | Jr | 3.7 | -1 | 4.6 |
| 114 | Kyle Kuric | Louisville | 6'4" | Sr | 3.4 | -1.2 | 4.6 |
| 115 | Terrence Ross | Washington | 6'6" | So | 3.2 | -1.4 | 4.6 |
| 116 | C.J. Fair | Syracuse | 6'8" | So | 2.9 | -1.7 | 4.6 |
| 117 | Scott Wood | North Carolina St. | 6'6" | Jr | 4.5 | 0 | 4.5 |
| 118 | Drew Crawford | Northwestern | 6'5" | Jr | 4.5 | 0 | 4.5 |
| 119 | Deonte Burton | Nevada | 6'1" | So | 4.5 | 0 | 4.5 |
| 120 | Neil Watson | SouthernMississippi | 5'11" | So | 4.5 | 0 | 4.5 |
| 121 | Joe Ragland | WichitaSt. | 6'0" | Sr | 4.5 | 0 | 4.5 |
| 122 | D'Angelo Harrison | St. John's | 6'3" | Fr | 4.3 | -0.2 | 4.5 |
| 123 | Tim Kamczyc | ClevelandSt. | 6'7" | Jr | 3.7 | -0.8 | 4.5 |
| 124 | Tim Frazier | Penn St. | 6'1" | Jr | 3.6 | -0.9 | 4.5 |
| 125 | Wendell McKines | NewMexicoSt. | 6'6" | Sr | 3.6 | -0.9 | 4.5 |
| 126 | Dennis Tinnon | Marshall | 6'8" | Jr | 3.3 | -1.2 | 4.5 |
| 127 | Phil Pressey | Missouri | 5'10" | So | 3.2 | -1.3 | 4.5 |
| 128 | Solomon Hill | Arizona | 6'6" | Jr | 3.1 | -1.4 | 4.5 |
| 129 | Luke Martinez | Wyoming | 6'4" | Jr | 3.1 | -1.4 | 4.5 |
| 130 | Michael Dixon | Missouri | 6'1" | Jr | 4.4 | 0 | 4.4 |
| 131 | Ceola Clark | WesternIllinois | 6'3" | Sr | 4.3 | -0.1 | 4.4 |
| 132 | Travis Releford | Kansas | 6'5" | Jr | 3.7 | -0.7 | 4.4 |
| 133 | Chris Smith | Louisville | 6'2" | Sr | 3.7 | -0.7 | 4.4 |
| 134 | Torye Pelham | SouthernMississippi | 6'6" | Sr | 3.2 | -1.2 | 4.4 |
| 135 | Victor Oladipo | Indiana | 6'5" | So | 2.9 | -1.5 | 4.4 |
| 136 | Javon McCrea | Buffalo | 6'6" | So | 2.8 | -1.5 | 4.4 |
| 137 | Mitchell Watt | Buffalo | 6'10" | Sr | 2.8 | -1.6 | 4.4 |
| 138 | LaRon Dendy | MiddleTennessee | 6'9" | Sr | 2.2 | -2.2 | 4.4 |
| 139 | Anton Grady | ClevelandSt. | 6'8" | Fr | 2 | -2.4 | 4.4 |
| 140 | Moe Harkless | St. John's | 6'8" | Fr | 1.8 | -2.6 | 4.4 |
| 141 | Arnett Moultrie | Mississippi St. | 6'11" | Jr | 4.2 | -0.2 | 4.3 |
| 142 | Chace Stanback | NevadaLasVegas | 6'8" | Sr | 4.1 | -0.2 | 4.3 |
| 143 | Durand Scott | Miami FL | 6'4" | Jr | 3.8 | -0.5 | 4.3 |
| 144 | Tyler Murray | Wagner | 6'5" | Sr | 3.6 | -0.7 | 4.3 |
| 145 | Kenny Kadji | Miami FL | 6'11" | Jr | 3.3 | -1 | 4.3 |
| 146 | James Ennis | LongBeachSt. | 6'7" | Jr | 3 | -1.3 | 4.3 |
| 147 | Tanner Smith | Clemson | 6'5" | Sr | 2.7 | -1.5 | 4.3 |
| 148 | Royce O'Neale | Denver | 6'5" | Fr | 2.7 | -1.5 | 4.3 |
| 149 | Tony Mitchell | NorthTexas | 6'8" | Fr | 2.5 | -1.8 | 4.3 |
| 150 | Ray McCallum | Detroit | 6'1" | 3.7 | 1 | 4.2 | |
| 151 | Keiton Page | Oklahoma St. | 5'9" | Sr | 4.2 | 0 | 4.2 |
| 152 | Dave Sobolewski | Northwestern | 6'1" | Fr | 4.2 | 0 | 4.2 |
| 153 | Tony Snell | NewMexico | 6'7" | So | 3.8 | -0.4 | 4.2 |
| 154 | Sheldon McClellan | Texas | 6'4" | Fr | 3.8 | -0.5 | 4.2 |
| 155 | Taylor Braun | NorthDakotaSt. | 6'7" | So | 3.7 | -0.5 | 4.2 |
| 156 | Keith Appling | Michigan St. | 6'1" | So | 3.3 | -0.9 | 4.2 |
| 157 | Quincy Miller | Baylor | 6'9" | Fr | 3.2 | -1 | 4.2 |
| 158 | Josh Owens | Stanford | 6'8" | Sr | 3.2 | -1.1 | 4.2 |
| 159 | Juvonte Reddic | VirginiaCommonwealth | 6'9" | So | 2.3 | -1.9 | 4.2 |
| 160 | Damontre Harris | South Carolina | 6'9" | So | 2.2 | -2 | 4.2 |
| 161 | Brian Stafford | Denver | 6'4" | Sr | 4.1 | 0 | 4.1 |
| 162 | Ike Azotam | Quinnipiac | 6'7" | So | 3.7 | -0.4 | 4.1 |
| 163 | Patric Young | Florida | 6'9" | So | 3.6 | -0.6 | 4.1 |
| 164 | Tarik Black | Memphis | 6'8" | So | 3.1 | -1 | 4.1 |
| 165 | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Georgia | 6'4" | Fr | 3 | -1.1 | 4.1 |
| 166 | Josh Gasser | Wisconsin | 6'3" | So | 2.9 | -1.1 | 4.1 |
| 167 | Branden Dawson | Michigan St. | 6'6" | Fr | 2.6 | -1.5 | 4.1 |
| 168 | Tony Mitchell | Alabama | 6'6" | Jr | 1.6 | -2.4 | 4.1 |
| 169 | Jordan Hulls | Indiana | 6'0" | Jr | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 170 | Jordan Theodore | Seton Hall | 6'0" | Sr | 3.4 | -0.7 | 4 |
| 171 | Brandon Triche | Syracuse | 6'4" | Jr | 2.9 | -1.1 | 4 |
| 172 | Michael Snaer | Florida St. | 6'5" | Jr | 2.7 | -1.4 | 4 |
| 173 | Jorge Gutierrez | California | 6'3" | Sr | 2.4 | -1.6 | 4 |
| 174 | Zeke Marshall | Akron | 7'0" | Jr | 2.4 | -1.6 | 4 |
| 175 | Brady Heslip | Baylor | 6'2" | So | 3.9 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 176 | Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson | Temple | 6'6" | Jr | 3.1 | -0.7 | 3.9 |
| 177 | T.J. Robinson | LongBeachSt. | 6'8" | Sr | 2.6 | -1.4 | 3.9 |
| 178 | Earl Pettis | LaSalle | 6'5" | Sr | 2.5 | -1.4 | 3.9 |
| 179 | Elias Harris | Gonzaga | 6'7" | Jr | 2.4 | -1.5 | 3.9 |
| 180 | Jackie Carmichael | IllinoisSt. | 6'9" | Jr | 2.3 | -1.6 | 3.9 |
| 181 | James Southerland | Syracuse | 6'8" | Jr | 2.1 | -1.8 | 3.9 |
| 182 | JaMychal Green | Alabama | 6'8" | Sr | 2.1 | -1.8 | 3.9 |
| 183 | Evan Smotrycz | Michigan | 6'9" | So | 2.2 | -1.8 | 3.9 |
| 184 | Fab Melo | Syracuse | 7'0" | So | 1.8 | -2.1 | 3.9 |
| 185 | Henry Sims | Georgetown | 6'10" | Sr | 1.8 | -2.2 | 3.9 |
| 186 | E.J. Singler | Oregon | 6'6" | Jr | 3.8 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 187 | Laurent Rivard | Harvard | 6'5" | So | 3.8 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 188 | J.P. Primm | NCAsheville | 6'1" | 3.7 | -0.1 | 3.8 | |
| 189 | Robert Sacre | Gonzaga | 7'0" | Sr | 3.1 | -0.7 | 3.8 |
| 190 | Cody Ellis | St.Louis | 6'8" | 2.9 | -0.8 | 3.8 | |
| 191 | Chris Udofia | Denver | 6'6" | So | 2.9 | -0.9 | 3.8 |
| 192 | Justin Hawkins | NevadaLasVegas | 6'3" | Jr | 2.9 | -0.9 | 3.8 |
| 193 | Davante Gardner | Marquette | 6'8" | So | 2.8 | -1 | 3.8 |
| 194 | William Buford | Ohio St. | 6'6" | Sr | 2.8 | -1 | 3.8 |
| 195 | Perry Jones | Baylor | 6'11" | So | 2.7 | -1.1 | 3.8 |
| 196 | Kendall Williams | NewMexico | 6'3" | 2.6 | -1.2 | 3.8 | |
| 197 | Miles Plumlee | Duke | 6'10" | Sr | 2.5 | -1.3 | 3.8 |
| 198 | Kyle Weems | MissouriSt. | 6'6" | Sr | 2.4 | -1.4 | 3.8 |
| 199 | JT Sulton | MiddleTennessee | 6'8" | Jr | 2.3 | -1.5 | 3.8 |
| 200 | Marcos Knight | MiddleTennessee | 6'2" | Jr | 1.9 | -1.9 | 3.8 |
Point Guards and Perimeter Defense
The Value Add system as introduced last year was purely numbers driven, but I have made three adjustments for the three major items that cannot be measured by player stats.
1. While point guards get credit for assists, they should really get about an extra 1% just for bringing the ball up the court 50 times a game and setting up the offense. In the future I’d like to give every starting point guard at least 1% extra, but for today I have simply given the top 5 point guards in the country a +2.5%, the next best 10 a +2% and the next best 15 a +1.5% based almost exclusively on the Top 30 as evaluated by CBS Sports.
2. Perimeter defense results in bad shots and a lower eFG%, but a good perimeter defender doesn’t usually get a steal for good on-ball defense, unlike a good defender at the hoop who gets plenty of defensive rebounds and blocked shots. For now, I simply awarded an extra 1% for the players identified by CBS Sports as the best perimeter defenders in the country.
3. The lowest defensive rating in the system was a 0.0%, but now if someone gets a 0.0% and his team is giving up a high 1.05 points per trip he gets a +1.0 on defense (gives up points), while a 1.10 equals +2.0 etc.
How has the system fared?
A couple of notes from the four observations Sports Illustrated made about the Value Add system when I unveiled it last year:
| SI said based on the Value Add System: | What has actually happened this season? |
|---|---|
| Jordan Taylor … needs to be considered … for preseason national player of the year votes | Jordan is right back in the mix in the Top 10, but even winning Big Ten POY honors will be very tough because he is one of five Big Ten players in the top 10 as the conference has emerged as the top conference this year. Obviously when Jae Crowder was ranked as the 48th best returning player at that time, I couldn’t have dreamed he would now calculate as the 2nd best player in American in the final weeks of the season. |
| Lest you think the 6-6 (Central Connecticut’s Ken) Horton's (No. 8) standing on this list is inflated because he plays in a small conference, it should be noted that Pudner's fomula … means is that he'd theoretically be able to enhance a major-conference team's offense by 5.06 percent. | Despite continuing to have no support from a terrible team, in his three road games against Top 75 teams (vs. Michigan State, Northwestern and UMass) Horton has averaged 16 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 steals per game and is back in the Top 30 of all players at any D1 level for a 2nd straight year. |
| Vanderbilt's offense is going to be insanely good ... but the Commodores still might not be a top-10 team. | Despite missing their star center for much of the year has a top 20 offense (114.4 trips per game) but not a Top 20 team. |
| If (Bradley transfer Brandon) Wood plays at the level Pudner's formula projects … that could very well equate to a top-three finish (for Michigan State) in the Big Ten, which would exceed most pundits' expectations, including mine, and establish Value Add as a worthy way of identifying next year's sleepers. | Brandon Wood has shown he could make the transition from Bradley to the Big Ten, starting for the Spartans and being one of the top 300 players in the country with a 2.7 Value Add. That has been good enough for the Spartans not only to be in the top 3 in the Big Ten, but actually in first place a week after winning by 10 at Ohio State. |
9 comments:
Didn't Brandon Wood transfer from Valparaiso?
Yes, Wood transferred from Valpo, but the initial SI statement also mentioned Bradley-to-Illinois transfer Sam Maniscalco. Simple error.
Great stuff though on this site. A MSU grad and fan at heart, Marquette has become my No. 2 team because, truth is, it looks like an MSU team in the Big East. Keep up the great work!
Some of the numbers don't total up correctly. Are there other factors that go into the total that are not shown in the sheet? Thanks and nice work.
Also, would love to see what you NBA potential list looks like at some point. Awesome site and awesome insights.
How is Trey Burke not on this list? He is the front runner for Big Ten freshman of the year, ahead of #5 on this list Cody Zeller, and has meant more to Michigan then any other player on the team.
Zeller is a much more efficient and productive player. Zeller hits at 65% from the floor, while Burke is a 43% shooter -- that's a huge gap that Burke can't make up desite a decent assist rate (Zeller of course rebounds better and has a higher block%). Look at it this way, Burke has taken 89 more shots than Zeller this season and makes then at a rate that lags Zeller by 22%.
I will agree that Zeller is a more efficient player than Burke, but in all likelihood Burke will still win Big Ten FOTY because of the fact that he has lead Michigan to a shot at a Big Ten championship and a 3-4 seed in the tournament, while putting up impressive stats. I also feel that Burke is more crucial to Michigan's success than Novak (77 on this list) and Smotrycz (183). Based on those things i think Burke should definitely be on this list, but hey thats just my two cents.
This is an objective list though. The numbers are the numbers.
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