Horace Grant's nephew (Jerian), best first-year player in BE and 13th best overall, has let ND overcome Abromaitis injury

I just updated the Value Add rankings, and Marquette’s trip to Notre Dame tomorrow at Noon could have been a battle for MVP of the Big East except for Tim Abromaitis injury.

Jae Crowder has just nudged ahead of Kevin Jones for top player of the year by a microscopic margin (10.4% to 10.3% improvement to team’s scores) to far out distance 3rd place Jeremy Lamb (6.8%). But when I look at the rankings I did of returning Big East players this summer, you have to believe Abromaitis could well have been the top player this year except for the season-ending injury:

Preseason Total Value
1. Ashton Gibbs, Pittsburgh (forced to play PG, current #21)
2. Tim Abromaitis, Notre Dame (injured for year)
3. Jae Crowder, Marquette (current #1)
4. Kyle Kuric, Louisville (missed couple of games, current #23)
5. Kevin Jones, West Virginia (current #2)
6. Jeremy Lamb, Connecticut (current #3)

The fact is that Notre Dame looked like a middle of the conference team WITH Abromaitis, lost their potential MVP, and is still 4th place in the Big East and is on fire coming off wins against then No. 1 Syracuse and on the road vs. Seton Hall and UConn. While we'd certainly like to see Buzz grab Coach of the Year, it would be hard to by-pass Mike Brey going into the Noon showdown with Marquette.

If Davante Gardner is out tomorrow, the Irish may be a slight favorite in part due to having the 2nd best big guy (6-foot-9 or taller) in the Big East based on Total Value:

Players 6-foot-9 or taller in Top 50 of Big East
4 Gorgui Dieng, Louisville
10 Jack Cooley, Notre Dame
25 Andre Drummond, Connecticut
30 Henry Sims, Georgetown
38 Mouphtaou Yarou, Villanova
41 Yancy Gates, Cincinnati

While that presents a match-up problem, the reason that Notre Dame is in 4th place in the Big East and on the verge of being ranked is that a 3-star freshman, Jerian Grant, is the 13th Best Player in the Big East. Like Marquette’s surprisingly strong performance from another 3-star, Todd Mayo, the 6-foot-5 Grant certainly had the lineage to suggest future greatness.

Grant's dad was Harvey Grant, who strung together a decade long-career (Bullets, Trail Blazers and 76ers), and his uncle and dad’s twin Horace Grant has NBA rings from the Bulls and Lakers. However, no one expected the 105th best recruit in the land to play 86% of Notre Dame’s minutes his first year, while being among Pomeroy’s leaders in assists and low turnovers, and hitting a cool 37% from behind the arc in almost 100 attempts. When I compared preseason rankings to rankings right now, Grant ranked as the biggest surprise in the Big East – almost enough to offset the Abromaitis injury as the biggest disappointment. While most of the 150 players are within 25 spots of their summer projection, here are the 10 players who have exceeded their expectations by the widest margin with their projected rank and actual rank to date:

Surprise	Proj	Actual	First name	Lname	Team
1	NR	13	Jerian	Grant	NotreDame
2	NR	36	LaDontae	Henton	Providence
3	NR	43	Russ	Smith	Louisville
4	112	17	Herb	Pope	SetonHall
5	118	31	Toarlyn	Fitzpatrick	SouthFlorida
6	123	37	Fab	Melo	Syracuse
7	109	34	Dane	Miller	Rutgers
8	119	48	Vander	Blue	Marquette
9	69	9	Fuquan	Edwin	SetonHall
10	82	35	Lamar	Patterson	Pittsburgh
19	46	19	Davante	Gardner	Marquette

Abromaitis would give Notre Dame three of the top 14 players in the conference, but even without him Notre Dame matches up almost even with a Gardner-less Marquette if you go through the best eight players from both teams – and Notre Dame averages exactly 3 inches taller per spot (6-foot-3 5/8” to 6-foot-6 5/8”):

BE	Rnk	Marquette	BE	Rnk	Notre Dame	Height
1	Jae	Crowder	10	Jack	Cooley	6-6 vs. 6-9
16	Darius	Johnson-Odom	13	Jerian	Grant	6-2 vs. 6-5
48	Vander	Blue	62	Eric	Atkins	6-4 vs. 6-1
53	Jamil	Wilson	79	Scott	Martin	6-7 vs. 6-8
77	Todd	Mayo	87	Pat	Connaughton	6-3 vs. 6-5
89	Junior	Cadougan	91	Alex	Dragicevich	6-1 vs. 6-6
122	Derrick	Wilson	106	Tom	Knight	6-0 vs. 6-10
125	Jamail	Jones	108	Mike	Broghammer	6-6 vs. 6-9

The good news is that since January 24, Crowder (big jump to pass Jones for 1st), DJO (from 24th to 16th) and Blue (from 55th to 48th) are all shooting up in the rankings, the bad news is that Grant is too (from 23rd to 13th), so he is on the verge of earning All-Big East consideration in his first season.

Also as covered in the past, while the offensive Value Add is precise, you can make a 1% subjective adjustment within a team for the “team defensive stops” calculation, and if you do so with Marquette I believe it’s safe to drop Davante Gardner from his calculated 19th to 32nd, while raising Blue from his current 48th to 34th.

Biggest Disappointments
On the flip side of the nice surprises, below are the biggest 10 disappointments. While Abromaitis, through no fault of his own, is the biggest disappointment, he is followed closely by UConn's Alex Oriakhi who was benched the year after being the inside power for the NCAA title run and has been terrible. The third biggest disappointment is Providence's Kadeem Batts, whose academic problems cost him the first semester of his sophomre year after a very promising freshman campaign - but he is working to redeem himself on the court now.

Proj	Act	First name	Lname	Team
2	Inj	Tim	Abromaitis	NotreDame
8	114	Alex	Oriakhi	Connecticut
36	150	Kadeem	Batts	Providence
33	142	Roscoe	Smith	Connecticut
17	94	Khem	Birch	Pittsburgh
23	97	Cleveland	Melvin	DePaul
38	99	Shaun	Noriega	SouthFlorida
14	67	Gilvydas	Biruta	Rutgers
32	75	Peyton	Siva	Louisville
21	59	Dante	Taylor	Pittsburgh

Overall, 59 of the almost 200 players in the Big East have improved their team's overall scores this year by at least 2%. And while Crowder and Jones are clearly the best two players in the league by this measurement, I do want to make sure everyone knows I will be THRILLED if Darius Johnson-Odom wins the Big East player of the year. He is doing what he did last year at an even higher level - saving his dominant play for the big conference and (hopefully) tournament games.

While DJO is 16th in Total Value to date, he is shooting up rapidly and my only hope is that having two incredible seniors doesn't divide their votes for Big East honors after the year. With the way Blue has taken it to another level the last two games, and Gardner has been dominant on offense, we could easily have the three-and-half stars that Al McGuire said it took to win a title - particularly when you look at how strong we are down the entire bench.

Rnk	Player	Team	Ht	Off	Def	Total
1	Jae Crowder	Marquette	6-foot-6	5.64	-4.40	10.04
2	Kevin Jones	WestVirginia	6-foot-8	8.22	-1.81	10.03
3	Jeremy Lamb	Connecticut	6-foot-5	5.81	-0.96	6.77
4	Gorgui Dieng	Louisville	6-foot-10	2.66	-3.62	6.28
5	Jason Clark	Georgetown	6-foot-2	3.82	-2.38	6.20
6	Hollis Thompson	Georgetown	6-foot-8	4.58	-1.50	6.07
7	Kris Joseph	Syracuse	6-foot-7	4.11	-1.86	5.97
8	Dion Waiters	Syracuse	6-foot-4	3.23	-2.61	5.83
9	Fuquan Edwin	SetonHall	6-foot-6	1.98	-3.68	5.66
10	Jack Cooley	NotreDame	6-foot-9	3.64	-1.81	5.46
11	Maalik Wayns	Villanova	6-foot-2	5.15	0.00	5.15
12	Sean Kilpatrick	Cincinnati	6-foot-4	3.96	-1.12	5.08
13	Jerian Grant	NotreDame	6-foot-5	4.40	-0.61	5.01
14	Otto Porter	Georgetown	6-foot-8	2.22	-2.74	4.96
15	Shabazz Napier	Connecticut	6-foot-0	3.98	-0.94	4.92
16	Darius Johnson-Odom	Marquette	6-foot-2	3.75	-1.01	4.75
17	Herb Pope	SetonHall	6-foot-8	1.67	-3.07	4.74
18	Bryce Cotton	Providence	6-foot-1	4.72	0.00	4.72
19	Davante Gardner	Marquette	6-foot-8	3.27	-1.32	4.59
20	Brandon Triche	Syracuse	6-foot-4	3.46	-1.11	4.57
21	Ashton Gibbs	Pittsburgh	6-foot-2	4.56	0.00	4.56
22	Moe Harkless	St.John's	6-foot-8	1.58	-2.96	4.54
23	Kyle Kuric	Louisville	6-foot-4	3.11	-1.34	4.46
24	D'Angelo Harrison	St.John's	6-foot-3	3.70	-0.76	4.45
25	Andre Drummond	Connecticut	6-foot-11	2.11	-2.17	4.28
26	James Southerland	Syracuse	6-foot-8	2.49	-1.73	4.22
27	Jordan Theodore	SetonHall	6-foot-0	3.35	-0.72	4.07
28	C.J. Fair	Syracuse	6-foot-8	2.24	-1.64	3.88
29	Chris Smith	Louisville	6-foot-2	3.30	-0.54	3.85
30	Henry Sims	Georgetown	6-foot-10	1.72	-2.08	3.80
31	Toarlyn Fitzpatrick	SouthFlorida	6-foot-8	2.02	-1.74	3.76
32	Scoop Jardine	Syracuse	6-foot-2	2.44	-1.28	3.72
33	Cashmere Wright	Cincinnati	6-foot-0	2.09	-1.44	3.53
34	Dane Miller	Rutgers	6-foot-6	0.78	-2.65	3.43
35	Lamar Patterson	Pittsburgh	6-foot-5	2.96	-0.34	3.30
36	LaDontae Henton	Providence	6-foot-6	2.84	-0.41	3.25
37	Fab Melo	Syracuse	7-foot-0	1.13	-2.12	3.25
38	Mouphtaou Yarou	Villanova	6-foot-10	2.59	-0.60	3.19
39	Darryl Bryant	WestVirginia	6-foot-2	3.19	0.00	3.19
40	Dominic Cheek	Villanova	6-foot-6	3.12	0.00	3.12
41	Yancy Gates	Cincinnati	6-foot-9	1.78	-1.29	3.07
42	Nasir Robinson	Pittsburgh	6-foot-5	3.05	0.00	3.05
43	Russ Smith	Louisville	6-foot-0	0.26	-2.74	3.00
44	Brandon Young	DePaul	6-foot-3	2.97	0.00	2.97
45	Ron Anderson	SouthFlorida	6-foot-8	2.71	-0.19	2.90
46	Dion Dixon	Cincinnati	6-foot-3	1.96	-0.76	2.72
47	Hugh Robertson	SouthFlorida	6-foot-6	1.98	-0.65	2.63
48	Vander Blue	Marquette	6-foot-4	0.82	-1.65	2.47
49	Tray Woodall	Pittsburgh	5-foot-11	2.43	0.00	2.43
50	Myles Mack	Rutgers	5-foot-9	1.54	-0.84	2.38
51	Bilal Dixon	Providence	6-foot-9	1.50	-0.80	2.31
52	Jaquon Parker	Cincinnati	6-foot-3	1.96	-0.33	2.30
53	Jamil Wilson	Marquette	6-foot-7	1.23	-1.03	2.25
54	Chane Behanan	Louisville	6-foot-7	0.37	-1.88	2.25
55	Jeremiah Kelly	DePaul	6-foot-0	2.17	0.00	2.17
56	Baye Keita	Syracuse	6-foot-10	1.24	-0.87	2.12
57	God'sgift Achiuwa	St.John's	6-foot-8	2.07	0.00	2.07
58	Talib Zanna	Pittsburgh	6-foot-9	2.02	0.00	2.02
59	Dante Taylor	Pittsburgh	6-foot-9	1.66	-0.34	2.00