While most were shocked to see Louisville, Florida State and Vanderbilt win their conference tournaments this weekend, the Value Add system had them (and Big East surprise runner-up Cincinnati) all in the Sweet 16 posted more than nine months ago. I continue to believe the three, respectively, have the suffocating pressure defense, half-court defense, and three dominant NBA-level offensive players to make potential runs. Certainly all eight teams who received a No. 1 or 2 seed can make a run, and finally I do believe Marquette is the other team that can make a run because they are so dominant in 7 of 8 areas that unless a team can dominate their one weakness (defensive rebounding), MU can get on a roll past anyone. Sports Illustrated also noted this summer that Value Add had Michigan State as a surprise team in the mix since they were unranked in either preseason poll but in the Value Add Sweet 16 - and the Spartans just took their first Big Ten title in 12 years. Andrew Nicholson, ranked as the 47th best player by Value Add this season, just had the best performance of any player this weekend to lead St. Bonaventure to an upset of Xavier and NCAA appearance.
So if Value Add can identify 15 of the top teams 9 months out (Pitt was the only dud on the list), why not brackets? Simply put, statistics are very accurate over a season or even five or six games, but any statistician will tell you the swings are too wild when looking at one particular game – and one bad match-up or poor performance anywhere in the tournament ends the run.
Therefore, the most likely championship game is Kentucky vs. UNC – but there is only a 4% chance that will be the game and a 96% chance it will be one of the other 2,311 possible match-ups.
While I believe the 12 teams mentioned are the most likely to be in the title game, there is a 52% chance the title game will include two of those 12 teams, and a 48% chance at least one of the teams will be one of the other 56 teams.
So you can use these tables one of three ways:
1. If you just want to get a bracket off your desk you can just write down a team once for every “W” you see by them – with a capital "W" meaning they have a pretty clear edge, a small “w” meaning a slight edge, a small “l” meaning slightly more likely to be a loss, and a big “L” meaning they really shouldn’t win that game.
2. If you want to spend a few more minutes on your bracket, I’ve rated each team on four big things that seem to lead to tourney runs; a, how well the team was based this year based on their ratings in Pomeroy, b, whether or not the team has the three NBA-level or elite players it usually takes for a Final Four run; c, how experienced their guards are (particularly point guard); and d, how hot the team has been the last 10 to 12 games.
3. Finally, if you want to actually look at the key players on any team you are considering, the last table lists the top 3 players for each of the 68 teams and where they ranked among all players (Anthony Davis of Kentucky was first). The only two top 25 players not in the tournament are 11th ranked TJ McConnell of Duquesne and 16th ranked Damian Lillard of Weber State. (you can find all players here)
As for an absolute dark horse out there, I believe Belmont may be the greatest No. 14 seed in the history of the tournament. While I have Georgetown as a very slight favorite against Belmont, if Belmont does win that game they may well shoot into the Sweet 16 or Elite 8, and if they had been seated any higher than 14 I believe they would have been a shoe-in for a first round victory - but Georgetown is good.
Team Table (W = likely Win, L = likely Loss)
The four ratings go in descending order of importance; 1) "Sea" is the season rating, 2) "Tal" is the NBA- or Elite-level play of at least three top players; 3) "Exp" equals experience-level of guards; and 4, "Hot" equals how hot the team has been in moving up or down in Pomeroy the last 10 or 12 games and/or if they have any injuries or have gotten healthier (e.g. SH = shorthanded with one of their top 7 players missing, while teams like Louisville that have Peyton Siva back at full strength are now better:
| Team | Conf | Sea | Tal | Exp | Hot | Ovr | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scale | 20 | 15 | 10 | 10 | |||||||||
| 9 | Alabama (SH) | SEC | 15 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 26 | l | L | L | L | L | L |
| 3 | Baylor | B12 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 37 | W | w | l | l | L | L |
| 14 | Belmont | ASun | 16 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 38 | l | w | l | L | L | L |
| 14 | Brigham Young | WCC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 22 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 12 | California | P12 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 33 | l | l | L | L | L | L |
| 6 | Cincinnati | BE | 15 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 37 | w | l | l | l | L | L |
| 11 | Colorado | P12 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 28 | l | l | L | L | L | L |
| 11 | Colorado St. | MWC | 10 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 28 | l | L | L | L | L | L |
| 9 | Connecticut | BE | 14 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 32 | l | L | L | L | L | L |
| 8 | Creighton | MVC | 14 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 33 | w | L | L | L | L | L |
| 13 | Davidson | SC | 11 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 26 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 15 | Detroit | Horz | 6 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 26 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 2 | Duke | ACC | 17 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 38 | W | w | w | l | L | L |
| 7 | Florida (SH) | SEC | 16 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 36 | w | l | l | L | L | L |
| 3 | Florida St. | ACC | 15 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 44 | W | w | w | w | l | L |
| 3 | Georgetown | BE | 17 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 41 | w | w | l | l | L | L |
| 7 | Gonzaga | WCC | 15 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 31 | w | l | L | L | L | L |
| 12 | Harvard | Ivy | 13 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 30 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 4 | Indiana (SH) | B10 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 40 | w | l | l | l | L | L |
| 14 | Iona | MAAC | 12 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 32 | l | L | l | L | L | L |
| 8 | Iowa St. (SH) | B12 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 33 | w | L | L | L | L | L |
| 2 | Kansas | B12 | 19 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 45 | W | w | w | l | l | L |
| 8 | Kansas St. | B12 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 30 | w | L | L | L | L | L |
| 1 | Kentucky | SEC | 20 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 44 | W | W | w | w | l | L |
| 16 | Lamar | Slnd | 7 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 25 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 15 | Lehigh | Pat | 9 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 25 | l | L | L | L | L | L |
| 12 | Long Beach St. | BW | 14 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 33 | l | l | L | L | L | L |
| 16 | Long Island | NEC | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 20 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 4 | Louisville | BE | 15 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 39 | W | w | l | l | L | L |
| 15 | Loyola MD | MAAC | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 3 | Marquette | BE | 16 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 38 | w | w | w | l | L | L |
| 8 | Memphis (SH) | CUSA | 17 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 35 | l | L | L | L | L | L |
| 4 | Michigan | B10 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 37 | w | w | l | L | L | L |
| 1 | Michigan St. | B10 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 47 | W | W | w | w | w | w |
| 16 | Mississippi Val St. | SWAC | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 15 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 2 | Missouri | B12 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 36 | W | w | l | L | L | L |
| 13 | Montana | BSky | 9 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 27 | l | L | L | L | L | L |
| 6 | Murray St. | OVC | 13 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 31 | w | l | l | L | L | L |
| 16 | NC Asheville | BSth | 5 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 26 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 5 | New Mexico | MWC | 17 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 37 | w | l | L | L | L | L |
| 13 | New Mexico St. | WAC | 11 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 31 | l | l | L | L | L | L |
| 15 | Norfolk St. | MEAC | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 15 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 11 | North Carolina St. | ACC | 13 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 38 | W | l | L | L | L | L |
| 7 | Notre Dame | BE | 14 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 34 | w | l | l | L | L | L |
| 13 | Ohio | MAC | 10 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 27 | l | L | L | L | L | L |
| 2 | Ohio St. | B10 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 37 | W | w | l | l | L | L |
| 10 | Purdue | B10 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 41 | W | l | l | l | L | L |
| 12 | S. Florida (SH) | BE | 11 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 26 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 9 | S. Mississippi | CUSA | 11 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 23 | l | L | L | L | L | L |
| 6 | San Diego St. | MWC | 12 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 25 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 14 | South Dakota St. | Sum | 12 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 25 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 14 | St. Bonaventure | A10 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 25 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 9 | St. Louis | A10 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 36 | w | L | L | L | L | L |
| 7 | St. Mary's (SH) | WCC | 13 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 25 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 1 | Syracuse | BE | 18 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 43 | W | W | l | l | l | L |
| 5 | Temple | A10 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 36 | w | l | L | L | L | L |
| 11 | Texas | B12 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 32 | l | l | L | L | L | L |
| 1 | UNC (SH) | ACC | 19 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 46 | W | W | w | w | w | l |
| 6 | UNLV | MWC | 15 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 35 | w | l | l | l | L | L |
| 5 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 16 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 44 | W | w | w | l | l | L |
| 12 | VCU | CAA | 13 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 16 | Vermont | AE | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 19 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 10 | Virginia (SH) | ACC | 16 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 30 | l | l | l | L | L | L |
| 16 | Western Kentucky | SB | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 18 | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| 5 | Wichita St. | MVC | 18 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 40 | W | w | l | l | L | L |
| 4 | Wisconsin | B10 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 37 | w | l | l | l | L | L |
| 10 | WVU (SH) | BE | 13 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 24 | l | L | L | L | L | L |
| 10 | Xavier | A10 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 30 | l | l | l | L | L | L |
Top 3 players for all tournament teams
In addition to noting their overall Rnk among the 4,000 Division I players, I noted if each player is projected to go in the 1st round or 2nd round of the NBA Draft this year, or in the 2013 draft.
| Top 3 players each team | Conf | Sea | NBA? | Rnk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama (SH) | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Trevor Releford | 6'0" | So | 46 | |
| JaMychal Green | 6'8" | Sr | 2nd | 282 |
| Levi Randolph | 6'5" | Fr | 294 | |
| Baylor | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Quincy Acy | 6'7" | Sr | 2nd | 32 |
| Pierre Jackson | 5'10" | Jr | 73 | |
| Brady Heslip | 6'2" | So | 1st | 173 |
| Belmont | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Kerron Johnson | 6'1" | Jr | 41 | |
| Drew Hanlen | 5'11 | Sr | 140 | |
| Scott Saunders | 6'10" | Sr | 347 | |
| Brigham Young | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Noah Hartsock | 6'8" | Sr | 192 | |
| Charles Abouo | 6'5" | Sr | 380 | |
| Brandon Davies | 6'9" | Jr | 444 | |
| California | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Justin Cobbs | 6'2" | So | 58 | |
| Allen Crabbe | 6'6" | So | 2013 | 164 |
| Jorge Gutierrez | 6'3" | Sr | 2nd | 237 |
| Cincinnati | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Sean Kilpatrick | 6'4" | So | 95 | |
| Cashmere Wright | 6'0" | Jr | 104 | |
| Dion Dixon | 6'3" | Sr | 361 | |
| Colorado | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Andre Roberson | 6'7" | So | 2013 | 81 |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | 6'5" | Fr | 325 | |
| Nate Tomlinson | 6'3" | Sr | 523 | |
| Colorado St. | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Pierce Hornung | 6'5" | Jr | 71 | |
| Dorian Green | 6'2" | Jr | 105 | |
| Jesse Carr | 6'2" | Jr | 483 | |
| Connecticut | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Jeremy Lamb | 6'5" | So | 1st | 45 |
| Shabazz Napier | 6'0" | So | 72 | |
| Andre Drummond | 6'11" | Fr | 1st | 267 |
| Creighton | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Doug McDermott | 6'7" | So | 2013 | 18 |
| Antoine Young | 6'0" | Sr | 158 | |
| Grant Gibbs | 6'4" | Jr | 349 | |
| Davidson | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Nik Cochran | 6'3" | Jr | 113 | |
| De'Mon Brooks | 6'7" | So | 222 | |
| Jake Cohen | 6'10" | Jr | 251 | |
| Detroit | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Ray McCallum | 6'1" | So | 2013 | 163 |
| Doug Anderson | 6'5" | Jr | 395 | |
| Eli Holman | 6'10" | Sr | 429 | |
| Duke | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Ryan Kelly | 6'11" | Jr | 70 | |
| Mason Plumlee | 6'10" | Jr | 1st | 124 |
| Seth Curry | 6'2" | Jr | 130 | |
| Florida (SH) | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Kenny Boynton | 6'2" | Jr | 2013 | 22 |
| Erving Walker | 5'8" | Sr | 34 | |
| Bradley Beal | 6'3" | Fr | 1st | 85 |
| Florida St. | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Bernard James | 6'10" | Sr | 2nd | 126 |
| Michael Snaer | 6'5" | Jr | 2013 | 148 |
| Deividas Dulkys | 6'5" | Sr | 505 | |
| Georgetown | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Jason Clark | 6'2" | Sr | 24 | |
| Otto Porter | 6'8" | Fr | 2013 | 79 |
| Hollis Thompson | 6'8" | Jr | 2nd | 91 |
| Gonzaga | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Kevin Pangos | 6'1" | Fr | 76 | |
| Elias Harris | 6'7" | Jr | 219 | |
| Robert Sacre | 7'0" | Sr | 2nd | 412 |
| Harvard | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Oliver McNally | 6'3" | Sr | 255 | |
| Brandyn Curry | 6'1" | Jr | 311 | |
| Keith Wright | 6'8" | Sr | 362 | |
| Indiana (SH) | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Cody Zeller | 6'11" | Fr | 2013 | 5 |
| Victor Oladipo | 6'5" | So | 2013 | 97 |
| Jordan Hulls | 6'0" | Jr | 115 | |
| Iona | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Scott Machado | 6'1" | Sr | 2nd | 20 |
| Mike Glover | 6'7" | Sr | 121 | |
| Lamont Jones | 6'0" | Jr | 404 | |
| Iowa St. (SH) | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Scott Christopherson | 6'3" | Sr | 258 | |
| Royce White | 6'8" | So | 2013 | 279 |
| Melvin Ejim | 6'6" | So | 290 | |
| Kansas | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Thomas Robinson | 6'9" | Jr | 1st | 6 |
| Jeff Withey | 7'0" | Jr | 2nd | 35 |
| Tyshawn Taylor | 6'3" | Sr | 1st | 98 |
| Kansas St. | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Rodney McGruder | 6'4" | Jr | 36 | |
| Jamar Samuels | 6'7" | Sr | 264 | |
| Will Spradling | 6'3" | So | 388 | |
| Kentucky | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Anthony Davis | 6'10" | Fr | 1st | 1 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | 6'7" | Fr | 1st | 28 |
| Doron Lamb | 6'4" | So | 1st | 48 |
| Lamar | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Anthony Miles | 6'0" | Sr | 175 | |
| Devon Lamb | 6'2" | Sr | 200 | |
| Mike James | 6'1" | Sr | 601 | |
| Lehigh | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| C.J. McCollum | 6'3" | Jr | 2nd | 11 |
| Mackey McKnight | 6'0" | So | 454 | |
| Gabe Knutson | 6'9" | Jr | 597 | |
| Long Beach St. | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Larry Anderson | 6'5" | Sr | 56 | |
| T.J. Robinson | 6'8" | Sr | 208 | |
| Casper Ware | 5'10" | Sr | 231 | |
| Long Island | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Julian Boyd | 6'7" | Jr | 345 | |
| Jamal Olasewere | 6'7" | Jr | 394 | |
| Jason Brickman | 5'10" | So | 944 | |
| Louisville | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Gorgui Dieng | 6'10" | So | 2013 | 63 |
| Kyle Kuric | 6'4" | Sr | 107 | |
| Chris Smith (Lville) | 6'2" | Sr | 202 | |
| Loyola MD | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Robert Olson | 6'4" | Jr | 286 | |
| Dylon Cormier | 6'2" | So | 314 | |
| Erik Etherly | 6'7" | Jr | 389 | |
| Marquette | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Jae Crowder | 6'6" | Sr | 2nd | 2 |
| Darius Johnson-Odom | 6'2" | Sr | 2nd | 99 |
| Davante Gardner | 6'8" | So | 320 | |
| Memphis (SH) | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Will Barton | 6'6" | So | 2nd | 7 |
| Chris Crawford | 6'4" | So | 135 | |
| Tarik Black | 6'8" | So | 182 | |
| Michigan | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Zack Novak | 6'4" | Sr | 82 | |
| Trey Burke | 6'1" | Fr | 2013 | 131 |
| Evan Smotrycz | 6'9" | So | 249 | |
| Michigan St. | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Draymond Green | 6'7" | Sr | 2nd | 3 |
| Keith Appling | 6'1" | So | 2013 | 129 |
| Branden Dawson | 6'6" | Fr | 2013 | 274 |
| Mississippi Val St. | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Terrence Joyner | 6'3" | Sr | 1402 | |
| Kevin Burwell | 5'10" | Sr | 1510 | |
| Cor-J Cox | 6'5" | Sr | 1927 | |
| Missouri | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Marcus Denmon | 6'3" | Sr | 2nd | 13 |
| Ricardo Ratliffe | 6'8" | Sr | 2nd | 44 |
| Michael Dixon | 6'1" | Jr | 54 | |
| Montana | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Will Cherry | 6'1" | Jr | 116 | |
| Kareem Jamar | 6'5" | So | 220 | |
| Art Steward | 6'4" | Sr | 613 | |
| Murray St. | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Isaiah Canaan | 6'0" | Jr | 2013 | 14 |
| Donte Poole | 6'3" | Sr | 64 | |
| Edward Daniel | 6'7" | Jr | 451 | |
| NC Asheville | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Jeremy Atkinson | 6'4" | Jr | 204 | |
| J.P. Primm | 6'1" | Sr | 205 | |
| Matt Dickey | 6'1" | Sr | 227 | |
| UNLV | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Mike Moser | 6'8" | So | 1st | 101 |
| Chace Stanback | 6'8" | Sr | 2013 | 217 |
| Anthony Marshall | 6'3" | Jr | 268 | |
| New Mexico | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Drew Gordon | 6'9" | Sr | 2nd | 100 |
| Kendall Williams | 6'3" | So | 207 | |
| Jamal Fenton | 5'9" | Jr | 283 | |
| New Mexico St. | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Wendell McKines | 6'6" | Sr | 137 | |
| Hernst Laroche | 6'1" | Sr | 309 | |
| Hamidu Rahman | 6'11" | Sr | 814 | |
| Norfolk St. | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Kyle O'Quinn | 6'10" | Sr | 125 | |
| Pendarvis Williams | 6'6" | So | 897 | |
| Jamel Fuentes | 6'3" | So | 1248 | |
| UNC (SH) | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Tyler Zeller | 7'0" | Sr | 1st | 17 |
| John Henson | 6'10" | Jr | 2013 | 55 |
| Kendall Marshall | 6'3" | So | 2013 | 136 |
| North Carolina St. | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Lorenzo Brown | 6'5" | So | 2013 | 156 |
| C.J. Leslie | 6'8" | Sr | 160 | |
| Scott Wood | 6'6" | Jr | 2nd | 203 |
| Notre Dame | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Jack Cooley | 6'9" | Jr | 25 | |
| Jerian Grant | 6'5" | So | 92 | |
| Eric Atkins | 6'1" | So | 244 | |
| Ohio | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| D.J. Cooper | 5'11 | Jr | 123 | |
| Nick Kellogg | 6'3" | So | 365 | |
| Walter Offutt | 6'3" | Jr | 436 | |
| Ohio St. | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Jared Sullinger | 6'9" | So | 1st | 9 |
| Aaron Craft | 6'2" | So | 40 | |
| Deshaun Thomas | 6'7" | So | 84 | |
| Purdue | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Robbie Hummel | 6'8" | Sr | 2nd | 31 |
| Lewis Jackson | 5'9" | Sr | 94 | |
| Ryne Smith | 6'3" | Sr | 240 | |
| San Diego St. | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Chase Tapley | 6'2" | Jr | 106 | |
| Jamaal Franklin | 6'5" | So | 281 | |
| Xavier Thames | 6'3" | So | 669 | |
| South Dakota St. | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Nate Wolters | 6'4" | Jr | 2013 | 26 |
| Griffan Callahan | 6'4" | Sr | 316 | |
| Jordan Dykstra | 6'8" | So | 456 | |
| S. Florida (SH) | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Toarlyn Fitzpatrick | 6'8" | Jr | 221 | |
| Anthony Collins | 6'1" | Fr | 427 | |
| Hugh Robertson | 6'6" | Sr | 478 | |
| S. Mississippi | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Neil Watson | 5'11 | So | 80 | |
| Torye Pelham | 6'6" | Sr | 259 | |
| LaShay Page | 6'2" | Jr | 422 | |
| St. Bonaventure | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Andrew Nicholson | 6'9" | Sr | 2nd | 47 |
| Demitrius Conger | 6'6" | Jr | 280 | |
| Matthew Wright | 6'4" | So | 582 | |
| St. Louis | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Kwamain Mitchell | 5'10" | Jr | 90 | |
| Brian Conklin | 6'6" | Sr | 138 | |
| Cody Ellis | 6'8" | Jr | 253 | |
| St. Mary's (SH) | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Matthew Dellavedova | 6'4" | Jr | 29 | |
| Rob Jones | 6'6" | Sr | 176 | |
| Stephen Holt | 6'4" | So | 194 | |
| Syracuse | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Kris Joseph | 6'7" | Sr | 1st | 43 |
| Dion Waiters (Syr) | 6'4" | So | 1st | 53 |
| Scoop Jardine | 6'2" | Sr | 89 | |
| Temple | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Khalif Wyatt | 6'4" | Jr | 37 | |
| Ramone Moore | 6'4" | Sr | 271 | |
| Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson | 6'6" | Jr | 273 | |
| Texas | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| J'Covan Brown | 6'1" | Jr | 2nd | 21 |
| Sheldon McClellan | 6'4" | Fr | 119 | |
| Clint Chapman | 6'10" | Sr | 321 | |
| Vanderbilt | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| John Jenkins | 6'4" | Jr | 1st | 15 |
| Jeffery Taylor | 6'7" | Sr | 1st | 23 |
| Brad Tinsley | 6'3" | Sr | 122 | |
| Vermont | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Matt Glass | 6'8" | Sr | 472 | |
| Luke Apfeld | 6'7" | So | 593 | |
| Brian Voelkel | 6'6" | So | 617 | |
| Virginia (SH) | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Mike Scott | 6'8" | Sr | 2nd | 19 |
| Joe Harris (Uva) | 6'6" | So | 386 | |
| Sammy Zeglinski | 6'1" | Sr | 529 | |
| VCU | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Juvonte Reddic | 6'9" | So | 257 | |
| Bradford Burgess | 6'6" | Sr | 2nd | 331 |
| Darius Theus | 6'3" | Jr | 368 | |
| WVU (SH) | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Kevin Jones | 6'8" | Sr | 2nd | 4 |
| Darryl Bryant | 6'2" | Sr | 195 | |
| Jabarie Hinds | 5'11 | Fr | 508 | |
| Western Kentucky | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| George Fant | 6'5" | Fr | 768 | |
| Jamal Crook | 6'3" | Jr | 1266 | |
| Kahlil McDonald | 6'3" | Sr | 1350 | |
| Wichita St. | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Joe Ragland | 6'0" | Sr | 50 | |
| Garrett Stutz | 7'0" | Sr | 118 | |
| Toure' Murry | 6'5" | Sr | 215 | |
| Wisconsin | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Jordan Taylor | 6'1" | Sr | 2nd | 10 |
| Jared Berggren | 6'10" | Jr | 134 | |
| Ryan Evans | 6'6" | Jr | 144 | |
| Xavier | Ht | Yr | NBA? | Rnk |
| Tu Holloway | 6'0" | Sr | 2nd | 112 |
| Mark Lyons | 6'1" | Jr | 312 | |
| Dezmine Wells | 6'4" | Fr | 526 |
Man, thanks for all this data!
ReplyDeleteWondering - how were the top 3 players picked? Is it all Value Add based? (ie: Duke's list didn't have Austin Rivers and UNC was missing Harrison Barnes)
I haven't done my research on the Value Add metric so just curious what makes those two players score below expectations?
Yes, a very good question. It is Value Add based, and as awesome as Rivers is - he still plays a bit like a freshman.
ReplyDeleteThe average team scores 1 pt per trip down the court, and based on the calculations from Basketball on paper and presented on www.kenpom.com, a team of Rivers would only average 1.047 - so he has been barely above average. He is clearly one of the few best players long term, but the only categories in which he is in the top 500 in www.kenpom.com are % of minutes played, percent of shots taken, and getting to the foul line. He barely shoots the national average on two pointers at 47.9%, and is just above average on treys at 36.8%. Even though he is a guard he is below average at steals (1.8% per opponents trip down the court), never blocks a shot, and for a guard has a low assist rate - less than half the assist rate of guard Quinn Cook who plays when he isn't in, and lower than Seth Curry or Tyler Thornton.
In short, Rivers shoots way too much and passes way too little to be a truly great player yet, but as he matures in his decision making, he will certainly become one of the most dominant players in the country. Duke can only hope he chooses to hit that level as a sophomore rather than as a NBA rookie next year.