Last night four of the top 7 Value Add players in last May's projections were on the court in the Final Four games, but the scary part was seeing how well Louisville fought Kentucky despite note yet having transfer Luke Hancock from George Mason or the injured Mike Marra.
Those two rank as the 6th and 11th best players in the country returning from a redshirt year, as they combine for a projected 7.66% Value Add from players coming back from a redshirt year. At the bottom of this post is the list of 100 players who took a red shirt this year, but are likely to have Value Add next year.
Missouri and West Virginia have the most projected Value Add from current redshirts, but right behind them are Big East foes Louisville and Notre Dame, with Marquette just a few spots back at 10th best in the country with Otule and Thomas. This post reviews the returning red shirts for every team, and this will be followed by posts on projected Value Adds for new recruits and returning players from this year’s teams – finally wrapping up with the overall projected Value Add for all 345 teams for the 2012-13 season and where Marquette ranks in the Big East and nationally.
Notre Dame gets the #1 returning player in Tim Abromaitis and with #40 Garrick Sherman ranks as the 4th best team overall, but Marquette’s combination of sharp shooter Jake Thomas (15th most valuable incoming transfer/41st best player coming back from redshirt) and Chris Otule (29th best returning player) give Marquette the 10th best Value Add from redshirted players. The following are the top 20 teams in the country:
Projected 2012-13 Value Add from current red shirts
1. Missouri 7.99
2. West Virginia 7.95
3. Louisville 7.66
4. Notre Dame 7.01
5. Iowa St. 6.32
6. Minnesota 5.51
7. Temple 5.15
8. Butler 4.41
9. Utah 4.07
10. Marquette 3.58
11. North Carolina 3.54
12. California 3.29
13. Oregon 3.12
14. Kentucky 2.99
15. Hofstra 2.89
16. Nebraska 2.69
17. Southern Cal 2.58
18. Rutgers 2.56
19. Canisius 1.98
20. Drake 1.97
Last May we did a similar piece noting that Jamil Wilson projected as the 23rd best transfer, but sharp-shooter Jake Thomas ranks 8 spots higher based on lighting it up at South Dakota. Remember, Value Add is adjusted for competition, so his ability to average putting up seven treys a game and still maintain a 39% accuracy from beyond the arc for two years truly gives the perfect complement to Otule’s power defense inside – whether he comes in to bury a couple of shots a game or is utilized more to destroy zones.
I laid out that Value Add indicated MU should be almost at the same level next year, but has a real shot in 2014 to go to the Final Four. Of course, that was in the vacuum of looking at MU only, so we will see how we actually stack up once all 345 teams’ Value Add is tallied.
After compiling these three lists of projected Value Adds, we will sum up in a fourth piece where all of the teams across the country rate in cumulative Value Add.
Some other players you may note from the table below are players who could have ended up at Marquette in Aaric Murray (#3, chose West Virginia), D.J Newbill (#20) and Korie Lucious (#23), as well as former MU players Trevor Mbakwe (#2) and Erik Williams (#74).
This does not include any new players who could transfer immediately, such as huge impact players such as Alex Oriakhi of UConn and Trent Lockett of Arizona State.
I always appreciate any corrections to my database, so please email jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com if something is wrong on this sheet, or just looks off to you. College Hoops Update does a great job of keeping up a list of projected rosters, so if you aren’t sure, check that out by clicking here and if you catch something, I will update this list.
Here is the table. There weren’t quite 100 players who projected to add value, so I included a couple at 0% who were close to round out the list at 100:
| Rnk | FNAme | Lname | Height | Team | Off | Def | Tot | Year | Old school |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim | Abromaitis | 6' 8" | Notre Dame | 5.51 | 0.00 | 5.51 | Sr | |
| 2 | Trevor | Mbakwe | 6' 8" | Minnesota | 3.52 | -1.99 | 5.51 | Sr | |
| 3 | Aaric | Murray | 6' 10" | West Virginia | 3.67 | -1.37 | 5.04 | Jr | Xavier |
| 4 | Will | Clyburn | 6' 7" | Iowa St. | 3.67 | -1.35 | 5.02 | Sr | Utah |
| 5 | Rotnei | Clarke | 6' 0" | Butler | 4.41 | 0 | 4.41 | Sr | |
| 6 | Luke | Hancock | 6' 5" | Louisville | 3 | -1.15 | 4.15 | Jr | George Mason |
| 7 | Aaron | Dotson | 6' 4" | Utah | 2.77 | -1.29 | 4.07 | Jr | Louisiana St. |
| 8 | Laurence | Bowers | 6' 8" | Missouri | 3.04 | -0.99 | 4.03 | Sr | |
| 9 | Scootie | Randall | 6' 6" | Temple | 2.86 | -1.08 | 3.94 | Sr | |
| 10 | Leslie | McDonald | 6' 4" | North Carolina | 1.21 | -2.33 | 3.54 | Jr | |
| 11 | Mike | Marra | 6' 4" | Louisville | 0.39 | -3.12 | 3.51 | Jr | |
| 12 | Ricky | Kreklow | 6' 6" | California | 2.95 | -0.34 | 3.29 | So | Missouri |
| 13 | Olu | Ashaolu | 6' 7" | Oregon | 1.10 | -2.02 | 3.12 | Sr | LouisianaTech |
| 14 | Juwan | Staten | 6' 0" | West Virginia | 0.00 | -2.91 | 2.91 | So | Dayton |
| 15 | Jamal | Coombs-McDaniel | 6' 7" | Hofstra | 1.13 | -1.76 | 2.89 | Jr | |
| 16 | Marc | Trasolini | 6' 9" | Santa Clara | 2.89 | 0 | 2.89 | Sr | |
| 17 | Ryan | Harrow | 5' 11" | Kentucky | 2.60 | 0.00 | 2.60 | So | |
| 18 | Kourtney | Roberson | 6' 9" | TexasA&M | 1.42 | -1.14 | 2.56 | So | |
| 19 | Nick | Minnerath | 6' 8" | Detroit | 2.53 | 0 | 2.53 | Jr | |
| 20 | D.J. | Newbill | 6' 4" | Penn St. | 2.49 | 0 | 2.49 | So | |
| 21 | Brandon | Wood | 6' 2" | MICHIGAN St. | 2.48 | 0 | 2.48 | Jr | Valparaiso |
| 22 | Jabari | Brown | 6' 4" | Missouri | 2.40 | 0.00 | 2.40 | Fr | |
| 23 | Wally | Judge | 6' 9" | Rutgers | 2.30 | 0.00 | 2.30 | Jr | |
| 24 | Larry | Drew | 6' 2" | UCLA | 0.05 | -2.24 | 2.29 | Sr | |
| 25 | Ramon | Galloway | 6' 1" | LaSalle | 0.88 | -1.41 | 2.29 | Jr | SouthCarolina |
| 26 | Kelly | Olynyk | 6' 11" | Gonzaga | 1.01 | -1.19 | 2.20 | Jr | |
| 27 | Manny | Atkins | 6' 7" | Georgia St. | 1.18 | -1.01 | 2.19 | Jr | |
| 28 | Khem | Birch | 6' 8" | Pittsburgh | 2.10 | 0.00 | 2.10 | Fr | UNLV |
| 29 | Chris | Otule | 6' 11" | Marquette | 0.01 | -2.08 | 2.09 | Jr | |
| 30 | Dwayne | Polee | 6' 7" | San Diego St. | 1.44 | -0.63 | 2.07 | So | St. John's |
| 31 | Seth | VanDeest | 6' 11" | Drake | 1.97 | 0 | 1.97 | Jr | |
| 32 | Andre | Almeida | 6' 11" | Nebraska | 0 | -1.96 | 1.96 | Sr | |
| 33 | Stacey | Poole | 6' 5" | GeorgiaTech | 1.80 | 0.00 | 1.80 | So | Kentucky |
| 34 | Darrell | Williams | 6' 8" | Oklahoma St. | 0.89 | -0.91 | 1.80 | Sr | |
| 35 | Scott | Suggs | 6' 6" | Washington | 1.76 | 0 | 1.76 | Sr | |
| 36 | Bryson | Pope | 6' 6" | KENT St. | 0.00 | -1.66 | 1.66 | Jr | Tulsa |
| 37 | Lorne | Jackson | 6' 2" | Pepperdine | 1.6 | 0 | 1.60 | Sr | |
| 38 | Jio | Fontan | 6' 0" | Southern California | 0.58 | -0.94 | 1.52 | Jr | Fordham |
| 39 | Malcolm | Armstead | 6' 0" | Wichita St. | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.50 | Sr | |
| 40 | Garrick | Sherman | 6' 10" | NotreDame | 0.43 | -1.07 | 1.50 | Jr | |
| 41 | Jake | Thomas | 6' 3" | Marquette | 1.49 | 0.00 | 1.49 | Jr | South Dakota |
| 42 | Earnest | Ross | 6' 5" | Missouri | 1.46 | 0 | 1.46 | Jr | |
| 43 | Will | Felder | 6' 6" | MIAMI-OHIO | 0.00 | -1.41 | 1.41 | Jr | St. Francis PA |
| 44 | Isaiah | Armwood | 6' 7" | GeorgeWashington | 1.40 | 0.00 | 1.40 | So | Villanova |
| 45 | Korie | Lucious | 5' 11" | Iowa St. | 1.30 | 0.00 | 1.30 | Sr | MichiganSt. |
| 46 | DeShawn | Dockery | 5' 11" | TENNESSEE St. | 0.00 | -1.25 | 1.25 | Jr | FarleighDickinson |
| 47 | Dalton | Pepper | 6' 5" | Temple | 0.69 | -0.52 | 1.21 | Jr | |
| 48 | Lamont | Jones | 6' 0" | IONA | 1.15 | 0 | 1.15 | So | Arizona |
| 49 | Isaac | Sosa | 6' 3" | Canisius | 1.1 | 0 | 1.10 | Sr | CentralFlorida |
| 50 | Ari | Stewart | 6' 7" | Southern California | 0.00 | -1.06 | 1.06 | Jr | Wake Forest |
| 51 | Josh | McCoy | 6' 4" | MISSOURI- St.LOUIS | 1.01 | 0 | 1.01 | So | ClevelandState |
| 52 | Sam | Prescott | 6' 3" | Mount St. Mary's | 0.00 | -1.01 | 1.01 | Jr | Marist |
| 53 | Vee | Sanford | 6' 3" | Dayton | 0.73 | -0.25 | 0.98 | Jr | |
| 54 | Michael | Bizoukas | 6' 1" | MISSOURI St. | 0.00 | -0.92 | 0.92 | Sr | DePaul |
| 55 | Mangisto | Arop | 6' 5" | INDIANA St. | 0.31 | -0.6 | 0.91 | So | Gonzaga |
| 56 | Brian | Oliver | 6' 6" | Seton Hall | 0.90 | 0.00 | 0.90 | Jr | |
| 57 | Freddy | Asprilla | 6' 10" | Canisius | 0 | -0.88 | 0.88 | Sr | |
| 58 | Marshawn | Powell | 6' 7" | Arkansas | 0.87 | 0 | 0.87 | Jr | |
| 59 | Kendrick | Washington | 6' 7" | Arkansas St. | 0.11 | -0.72 | 0.83 | Jr | Houston |
| 60 | Gene | Teague | 6' 9" | Seton Hall | 0.22 | -0.60 | 0.82 | Jr | Southern Illinois |
| 61 | Amath | M'Baye | 6' 9" | OKLAHOMA | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.80 | Jr | |
| 62 | Eshaunte | Jones | 6' 4" | NORTHERNKENTUCKY | 0.04 | -0.76 | 0.80 | So | Nebraska |
| 63 | Charles | Carmouche | 6' 2" | Memphis | 0.75 | -0.05 | 0.80 | Sr | |
| 64 | Ray | Gallegos | 6' 3" | Nebraska | 0 | -0.73 | 0.73 | Jr | |
| 65 | Bryce | Jones | 6' 5" | UNLV | 0.00 | -0.72 | 0.72 | So | Southern California |
| 66 | Royce | Woolridge | 6' 2" | Washington St. | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.70 | So | Kansas |
| 67 | Antoine | Proctor | 6' 3" | MONTANA-BILLINGS | 0.00 | -0.69 | 0.69 | Sr | Sacramento St. |
| 68 | Glenn | Bryant | 6' 7" | EasternMichigan | 0.69 | 0 | 0.69 | Jr | |
| 69 | Chris | Pelcher | 6' 10" | NEWHAMPSHIRE | 0.68 | 0 | 0.68 | So | Iona |
| 70 | Sampson | Carter | 6' 8" | Massachusetts | 0.62 | 0 | 0.62 | Jr | |
| 71 | Akeem | Richmond | 6' 1" | EastCarolina | 0.61 | 0 | 0.61 | Jr | |
| 72 | Julian | Gamble | 6' 9" | Miami | 0.61 | 0 | 0.61 | Sr | |
| 73 | Nikola | Cerina | 6' 9" | Northwestern | 0.00 | -0.60 | 0.60 | Jr | Texas Christian |
| 74 | Erik | Williams | 6' 7" | Sam Houston St. | 0.36 | -0.15 | 0.52 | Jr | Marquette |
| 75 | Zach | Bohannon | 6' 7" | Wisconsin | 0.42 | 0 | 0.42 | Jr | |
| 76 | Jamal | Branch | 6' 3" | St. John's | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.40 | Fr | TexasA&M |
| 77 | Marko | Petrovic | 6' 3" | XAVIER | 0.39 | 0 | 0.39 | Fr | SanFrancisco |
| 78 | Maurice | Creek | 6' 5" | Indiana | 0.39 | 0 | 0.39 | Jr | |
| 79 | Jon | Hood | 6' 7" | Kentucky | 0 | -0.39 | 0.39 | Jr | |
| 80 | J'mison | Morgan | 6' 10" | Baylor | 0.03 | -0.34 | 0.37 | Sr | |
| 81 | Riley | Barker | 6' 9" | Portland | 0.32 | 0 | 0.32 | So | |
| 82 | Colton | Iverson | 6' 10" | Colorado St. | 0.02 | -0.29 | 0.31 | Sr | |
| 83 | Noruwa | Agho | 6' 3" | Columbia | 0.28 | 0 | 0.28 | Jr | |
| 84 | Austin | Carroll | 6' 3" | Rutgers | 0.26 | 0 | 0.26 | So | |
| 85 | Jordan | Jahr | 6' 6" | Evansville | 0.25 | 0 | 0.25 | So | |
| 86 | Roger | Franklin | 6' 5" | NorthTexas | 0 | -0.22 | 0.22 | Jr | |
| 87 | J.J. | Richardson | 6' 8" | HOUSTON | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.20 | So | Arizona |
| 88 | Darius | Leonard | 6' 9" | CAMPBELL | 0.18 | 0 | 0.18 | Fr | KentState |
| 89 | Joe | Latas | 6' 11" | HOUSTONBAPTIST | 0.18 | 0 | 0.18 | Jr | ClevelandState |
| 90 | Hayden | Humes | 6' 8" | ILLINOISCHICAGO | 0.15 | 0 | 0.15 | Fr | Toledo |
| 91 | Keion | Bell | 6' 3" | Missouri | 0.1 | 0 | 0.10 | Sr | |
| 92 | Will | Regan | 6' 9" | BUFFALO | 0.00 | -0.07 | 0.07 | So | Virginia |
| 93 | Evan | Gordon | 6' 2" | Arizona St. | 0.06 | 0 | 0.06 | Jr | |
| 94 | Desmar | Jackson | 6' 5" | Southern Illinois | 0.06 | 0 | 0.06 | Jr | |
| 95 | Dre’ | Winston | 6' 1" | PORTLAND St. | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.03 | So | Washington St. |
| 96 | Jon | Horford | 6' 9" | Michigan | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.01 | So | |
| 97 | Amath | M’Baye | 6' 9" | OKLAHOMA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | So | Arizona |
| 98 | Hooper | Vint | 6' 10" | Texas-ElPaso | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fr | |
| 99 | Cedrick | McAfee | 6' 3" | Auburn | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fr | |
| 100 | Ben | McLemore | 6' 5" | Kansas | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Fr |
1 comment:
Brandon Wood (Michigan State) and Lamont Jones (Iona) both shouldn't be on this list. Both played this season after being granted waivers (Wood due to having finished his degree at Valpo and Jones due to a family situation.
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