DJO passes eye test, national stat source says Crowder 2nd best in draft, but will names be called tomorrow?

As I travel to Newark for tomorrow night’s NBA draft, there are still doubters that Marquette will leave tomorrow night as one of only 15 colleges with seven or more NBA players or draftees (see complete table at end of post of all teams).

The average of 11 mock drafts had DJO as a somewhat shaky 47^th pick, and Crowder as a very borderline 57^th of 60 picks.  Many in public drafts simply believe both are too short to make it in the NBA, and even MU fans don’t hold out much hope for a third straight year of a surprise first round pick (Hayward, Butler) after the disappointment of the Three Amigos being passed over, as shown by this poll on MU Scoop:

MU Fans	Crowder	DJO
1st round	15%	10%
Top 45 picks	51%	46%
46-60th pick	25%	33%
Undrafted	9%	11%

If Crowder or DJO are called 30^th, they are locked into contracts close to $1,020,960 for this coming season and $1,066,920 for 2013-14.  If they are picked 31^st through 60^th, as most MU fans expect, then they are basically trying out for a team.  If not at all, their odds of making a team go down, but they can pick between offers and try the Wesley Matthews route, which resulted in a $9 million second year contract, the biggest ever for a second year player, precisely because he was NOT locked into a 2^nd year deal.

Those who rely more on the eye test believe DJO’s 41.5 inch vertical, tops of all prospects, vaulted him to a higher level.

While I never write about my calculations of NBA potential, a respected expert who has caught many GM draft day mistakes in the past just projected that Jae Crowder will turn out to be the 2nd best NBA player of any prospect in this draft behind only Anthony Davis.

If all the hard work pays off, then Marquette would close out the night as one of only 15 teams with seven former players in the NBA.   The Wall Street Journal did a nice piece ranking colleges base on NBA minutes played by this year.

I took the projected Draft Order from Draft Express, which was the most accurate in projecting the players invited to the NBA combine, and matched them with the minutes played by the rookies this year and added them into last year’s total.  (Normally that would make the overall minutes too high, but because of the strike, it works out about right.)

Brandon Knight played the most minutes of any rookie this year (2128 for Detroit), so I gave Anthony Davis and Kentucky 2128 minutes for him as the No. 1 pick in Draft Express.  Going down the list, that gives Draft Express 43^rd pick Crowder a projected 331 minutes (same as E’Twaun Moore put in for Boston for 43^rd among rookies), and DJO projects at 243 minutes as the 49^th pick in Draft Express (same as Malcolm Lee got for Minnesota).

If that played out, Marquette would actually DROP to 17^th in NBA minutes next year even with the additions of DJO and Crowder, being passed by Syracuse (Dion Waiters, Fab Melo and Kris Joseph add 2630 minutes to get them to 7769), but other than that only behind UConn in the Big East.

The closest competition MU would have within the conference would be from future member Memphis (4843 minutes to be 4 spots behind MU at 21^st overall), Georgetown (4363, 23^rd) and Villanova (4316, 24^th).  There would still be a nice drop from there to the rest of the conference, with Moe Harkless likely adding a lot of minutes to what is already being put up by Crowder’s favorite player, the former Ron Artest/Metta World Peace and a few from DJ Kennedy.

The minutes by conference are followed by the Big East teams (only teams with 2000 or more minutes included), followed by the new projected national leaders.  Intresting that the trio of MU, Georgetown and Villanova are the top three NBA producers except for UConn.

1. ACC - 77405 NBA Minutes projected next season
2. SEC - 59930
3. Pac 12 - 57769
4. Big East - 48166
5. Big 12 - 36832
6. Others - 33631
7. Big Ten – 28031 (great teams, but the style does not lend itself)

And here is the table of the Big East teams who should have at least 2000 minutes:

Rnk	Team	2012	2012 Min	Projected 2012 Picks	Draft Min	Proj Min
5	Connecticut	12	11656	Andre Drummond  C, Jeremy Lamb SG	2989	14645
14	Syracuse	6	5139	Dion Waiters  SG, Fab Melo C, Kris Joseph SF	2630	7769
17	Marquette	5	5373	Jae Crowder  SF/PF, Darius Johnson-Odom PG/SG	574	5947
23	Georgetown	3	4228	Henry Sims  PF/C	135	4363
24	Villanova	3	4316	None this year	0	4316
36	St. John's	2	1722	Moe Harkless  SF	1227	2949
37	Cincinnati	3	2848	None this year	0	2848
39	Louisville	5	2778	None this year	0	2778
45	Pittsburgh	3	2551	None this year	0	2551
	Total Big East Min	42	40611	not counted 654 WVU, etc.	7555	48166

And Kentucky would overtake Duke and UCLA for the top spot, with Missouri and Baylor breaking into the Top 50 overall.  Interesting that the top 6 teams hardly play football, except for an occasional team for UNC:

Rnk	Team	Pls	2012 min	Projected 2012 Picks	New Min	Proj
1	Kentucky	16	17159	Anthony Davis  PF, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF, Terrence Jones PF, Marquis Teague PG, Doron Lamb SG, Darius Miller SF	6757	23916
2	Duke	16	21609	Austin Rivers  SG, Miles Plumlee C	2125	23734
3	North Carolina	12	16904	Harrison Barnes  SF, John Henson PF, Tyler Zeller C, Kendall Marshall PG	5596	22500
4	UCLA	16	18029	None this year	0	18029
5	Connecticut	12	11656	Andre Drummond  C, Jeremy Lamb SG	2989	14645
6	Kansas	11	12152	Thomas Robinson  PF, Tyshawn Taylor PG	2343	14495
7	Florida	10	12652	Bradley Beal  SG	1792	14444
8	Arizona	11	12730	None this year	0	12730
9	Texas	13	11539	J'Covan Brown  PG/SG	125	11664
10	Georgia Tech	7	10523	None this year	0	10523
11	Wake Forest	7	10261	None this year	0	10261
12	Ohio State	6	7903	Jared Sullinger  C, William Buford SG	1246	9149
13	Southern California	6	7924	None this year	0	7924
14	Syracuse	6	5139	Dion Waiters  SG, Fab Melo C, Kris Joseph SF	2630	7769
15	Washington	6	5100	Terrence Ross  SG/SF, Tony Wroten PG/SG	2046	7146
16	LSU	6	6780	None this year	0	6780
17	Marquette	5	5373	Jae Crowder  SF/PF, Darius Johnson-Odom PG/SG	574	5947
18	Alabama	3	5375	JaMychal Green  PF/C	179	5554
19	Xavier	3	5121	Tu Holloway  PG	118	5239
20	Michigan State	4	4187	Draymond Green  PF	779	4966
21	Memphis	5	4209	Will Barton  SF	634	4843
22	Arkansas	4	4528	None this year	0	4528
23	Georgetown	3	4228	Henry Sims  PF/C	135	4363
24	Villanova	3	4316	None this year	0	4316
25	Maryland	4	4059	None this year	0	4059
26	UNLV	3	4021	None this year	0	4021
27	Nevada	4	3903	None this year	0	3903
28	Stanford	5	3724	None this year	0	3724
29	Illinois	2	2275	Meyers Leonard  C	1403	3678
30	California	3	3359	None this year	0	3359
31	Florida State	5	2695	Bernard James  C	541	3236
32	Oklahoma State	4	3172	None this year	0	3172
33	Fresno State	3	3154	None this year	0	3154
34	Boston College	4	3092	None this year	0	3092
35	Wisconsin	3	3062	None this year	0	3062
36	St. John's	2	1722	Moe Harkless  SF	1227	2949
37	Cincinnati	3	2848	None this year	0	2848
38	Butler	2	2794	None this year	0	2794
39	Louisville	5	2778	None this year	0	2778
40	Saint Joseph's	2	2766	None this year	0	2766
41	Texas A&M	2	2467	Khris Middleton  SF	252	2719
42	Oregon	2	2684	None this year	0	2684
43	Oklahoma	2	2662	None this year	0	2662
44	Minnesota	2	2611	None this year	0	2611
45	Pittsburgh	3	2551	None this year	0	2551
46	Missouri	3	2069	Kim English  SG/SF	424	2493
47	New Mexico	2	2101	Drew Gordon  PF	359	2460
48	Michigan	4	2428	None this year	0	2428
49	Creighton	2	2351	None this year	0	2351
50	Baylor	1	462	Perry Jones  PF, Quincy Miller SF	1884	2346