Welcome John Dawson! Did Buzz mention you might be playing some point for an Elite 8 team in 2014?

Buzz Williams continued to find unexpected talent this week when point guard John Dawson – the 2^nd best player in New Mexico, signed for next season.  Granted it’s not a big basketball state, but Buzz seems to like finding players not under the spotlight.  Two years removed from having Dwight Buycks have to move from shooting guard to point guard, Williams seems to want to take no chances on being without options at the point after Junior Cadougan graduates this year.  If the description on future150.com is at all accurate, Dawson could be a great addition at the point.

"Dawson has elite court vision and the ability to make all his teammates better. He can score on all 3 levels. He loves getting out in transition where he is pretty much unstoppable when attacking the rim. He has excellent ball handling skills and can knock down the open 3-point shot with consistency. His length and athleticism and being 6'4" is what sets him apart from other point guards in the class."

Welcome to Marquette Mr. Dawson – and your timing may be perfect.

While the Value Add database currently pegs Marquette as a respectable 25^th best team in the country heading into the upcoming 2013 season, the new roster with Dawson now shows Marquette as the 4^th best team in the country in 2014 with a legit shot at an Elite 8 if it stays in place and no one gets TOO good this year and makes it to the NBA.

The following is the projected 2014 Value Add roster by class and then name.

Player	Ht	Class	Off	Def	PG Per	Value Add
Burton, Deonte	6'5"	1 Fr	2.04	-0.91	0.00	2.95
Dawson, John	6'2"	1 Fr	0.64	-0.29	0.50	1.43
Wilson, Duane	6'3"	1 Fr	1.81	-0.81	0.50	3.12
Ferguson, Jamal	6'3"	2 So	2.44	-0.51	0.00	2.95
Taylor, Steve	6'7"	2 So	2.85	-0.60	0.00	3.46
Anderson, Juan	6'6"	3 Jr	2.35	-0.84	0.00	3.19
Mayo, Todd	6'3"	3 Jr	3.29	-0.71	0.00	3.99
McKay, Jameel	6'8"	3 Jr	3.40	1.60	0.00	5.00
Wilson, Derrick	6'0"	3 Jr	0.38	-0.82	0.00	1.20
Blue, Vander	6'4"	4 Sr	2.75	-1.26	0.00	4.01
Gardner, Davante	6'8"	4 Sr	4.23	-1.31	0.00	5.54
Otule, Chris	6'11"	4 Sr	0.01	-2.41	0.00	2.42
Thomas, Jake	6'3"	4 Sr	1.73	0.00	0.00	1.73
Wilson, Jamil	6'7"	4 Sr	2.17	-1.90	0.00	4.07
Total Value Add						45.06

This is a roster without super stars, as no player projects to have anywhere near the 9.0% Value Add that notes an All-American, but EIGHT players project to be above 3.0%, which is the level at which a player is a good BCS starter.  Deonte Burton barely misses that mark at 2.95%, so MU literally could have a roster of nine players who should be starting at the BCS level, and everyone should be good enough to contribute.  Of course there will always be those who excel or fall off the pace, but with these kind of odds it seems MU will have one of the strongest benches in the country and Dawson and his highly recruited teammate point guard Duane Wilson may have a choice of weapons to set up when they are on the court.

Back in May, I put out the rankings for the top 50 teams of 2014, and MU actually fell back several spots at one point.  However, after Dawson signed I updated all signings to date (the dump is not yet complete at www.valueaddbasketball.com but will be shortly), and the following are the new rankings.  Kentucky and UNC are always undervalued to some degree because they have so many NBA-bound players that it is tricky to project who will still be around in two years and if the players moving up from the bench are as good as advertised when they were recruited.  However, even assuming both will move to the top by next season, Marquette is on course for a team good enough to be in the Elite 8 for the first time since 2003.  I stretched the list to the traditional top 64 number for the tournament, mainly because a couple of Big East teams are creeping onto the list.

This is based on the projected Value Add of every player currently scheduled to be on the roster in 2014.  If a team is projected to lose more than one player to the NBA, we assume they will lose half of the potential draftees overall value (so Kentucky is assumed to lose two of their current four prospects, but not all four).  As outlined in the earlier piece, if a team averages getting at least 3.0% of Value Add each year from their new freshman recruiting class, but they do not have that much freshman talent signed yet, then we add a figure to assume they get to that level.  For example, Calipari averages getting 12.1% of Value Add out of each freshman class, and has only signed 1.3% so far for 2014 because he has the luxury of waiting to pick the top few that emerge.  Therefore we add 10.8% to Kentucky’s total after we assume they lose two of their four potential NBA draft picks.  Marquette has already exceeded it’s typical 3.1% with the excellent signing class, so we do not assume any more for them – though of course that can happen with late signings.

2014 rank	Team	Roster	Freshman est.	Total
1	Texas	45.25	9.3	54.55
2	Indiana	50.19		50.19
3	Memphis	49.64		49.64
4	Marquette	46.06		46.06
5	Michigan St.	40.6	3.8	44.4
6	Arizona	44.14		44.14
7	Providence	39.77	3.7	43.47
8	Maryland	41.24	1.7	42.94
9	Iowa	40.11	2.7	42.81
10	UCLA	40.4		40.4
11	North Carolina St.	40.02		40.02
12	Kentucky	29.13	10.8	39.93
13	North Carolina	39.78		39.78
14	California	39.77		39.77
15	Michigan	39.63		39.63
16	Notre Dame	39.21		39.21
17	Louisville	38.95		38.95
18	Ohio St.	34.23	3.2	37.43
19	Virginia	36.47		36.47
20	Stanford	36.12		36.12
21	Arkansas	35.06		35.06
22	Georgetown	32.78	2.2	34.98
23	Connecticut	31.58	2.5	34.08
24	Baylor	31.16	2.5	33.66
25	Alabama	32.63		32.63
26	Florida	32.58		32.58
27	Pittsburgh	32.29		32.29
28	Nevada Las Vegas	31.82		31.82
29	Kansas	31.76		31.76
30	Houston	31.48		31.48
31	Georgia Tech	30.19		30.19
32	Colorado	29.72	0.1	29.82
33	West Virginia	29.43		29.43
34	Duke	27.84	1.4	29.24
35	Villanova	27.49	1.6	29.09
36	Oklahoma St.	29.07		29.07
37	Texas Tech	28.98		28.98
38	Syracuse	27.04	1.8	28.84
39	New Mexico	28.11		28.11
40	Mississippi	24.41	3.1	27.51
41	Iowa St.	27.24		27.24
42	Purdue	26.99		26.99
43	Rutgers	22.49	4.3	26.79
44	Xavier	26.44		26.44
45	Texas A&M	26.13		26.13
46	Harvard	25.78		25.78
47	Oregon St.	25.6		25.6
48	South Carolina	24.39		24.39
49	South Carolina Upstate	24.07		24.07
50	Richmond	24.05		24.05
51	Wisconsin	24		24
52	Virginia Commonwealth	23.99		23.99
53	Louisiana St.	23.92		23.92
54	Seton Hall	23.89		23.89
55	La Salle	23.43		23.43
56	Illinois	23.1		23.1
57	Tennessee	22.65		22.65
58	DePaul	22.49		22.49
59	Virginia Tech	22.18		22.18
60	Oklahoma	22.17		22.17
61	South Florida	22.17		22.17
62	Minnesota	21.63		21.63
63	Missouri	21.01		21.01
64	Wake Forest	20.74		20.74

Al's Run: Double your Dough

We have just a couple more days to hit our Al's Run goal of $1977.78.

In an effort to jump start the fund-raising .. the Cracked Sidewalks team is issuing a 24 hour CHALLENGE and will match all donations up to a total of $500.

We're doing well, raising over $1,300 in two days, short of our $1977.78 goal, but we're OVER $20k for the 6 years we've been Running Al, which is fantastic.

$50 and $100 donations are super, but we wanna see some $20.03 donations, too.  Or how about $30, the price of one lower bowl game ticket.    You didn't want to see the big MU vs. Oostburg Tech game anyhow.

So .. let's find our credit cards, and double your dough, Al McGuire fans: 
http://events.chw.org/goto/MUBBFans

Support Al's Run 2012

It's that time again. Al's Run is this Saturday, September 15th.

In the past 5 years, MU fans have raised a whopping $19,000 for Al's Run, including last year's record breaking $5,200.

We've established a tradition of starting with a goal of $1977.78, and smashing that goal a few times as the days go by.

Cracked Sidewalks doesn't sell you stuff here, we don't even show you advertisements, we just give you pure Marquette Basketball goodness. 

All we ask for is a few bucks every year, for Al's Run.

It all goes to a great cause, Children's Hospital of Wisconsin.   Think $10.  Or $25 or $100.  Whatever you want to put in the Al McGuire tip jar.

How about $32.54?  (Jae Crowder.Davante Gardner?)  Or go old school, $34.20 (Travis, Steve.)  Or super old-school, $43.31 (Tatum, Ellis).

So, click here, click the "Support ALS_RUN" button on the right ..  zip out your credit card and pay your respects to Al, and Marquette:

Al's Run Donation Site

(NOTE:  In the past, we've had some very generous donors who have run "challenge hours" matching other donations that come in at a certain hour.  If you would like to run a "challenge" (which can be anonymous and have a max) please contact me at Hilltopper91@gmail.com)

Some good Big East football results as networks evaluate what an overall Big East package is worth; table of all FBS teams' rankings and performances

BJ Daniels 56-yard pass to Andre Davis with 38 seconds left to give South Florida a 32-31 road win at Nevada (ranked 27th at www.masseyratings.com coming into the game) helps Marquette basketball.  Yes, the Big East brand and Big East football remain part of the equation that made Marquette's basketball program more profitable than a majority of FBS FOOTBALL programs, and as MU Warrior reported yesterday, the Big East name is not going to change.

That win coupled with Louisville's thrashing of Kentucky and Cincinnati's drubbing of ACC-bound Pitt give hope that all three teams can move up to team up with Boise State and give the Big East a strong nucleus for future football seasons that will attract a strong offer from ESPN, NBC Sports or others.

However, it is also important that some of the lower teams also improve their standing now that they will be affiliated with the East.   To that end, it was good that SMU, Memphis and San Diego State were three of the 15 teams to exceed the Massey spread on their game by more than 20 points.  SMU was favored by just 12 against a Stephen F. Austin team that had won 6 straight games in the FCS, but exceeded that spread by 40 points for the most impressive performance of the day.  San Diego State also rolled it up by 15 points more than expected, and Memphis almost pulled off a major upset as a 27-point underdog at Arkansas State.

This table shows the best 15 performances - obviously Louisiana-Monroe has the most impressive win on this list, and my estimate of how the team's Massey ranking could change as a result.

Team	Conference	Prev Rank	New Rank	Opponent	Massey Pr	Actual	Beat Spread
SMU	Big East	87	78	SF Austin	12	52	40
Texas Tech	Big 12	36	27	Texas St	12	48	36
Arizona	Pac 12	43	36	Oklahoma St	-13	21	34
ULM	Sun Belt	105	97	Arkansas	-30	3	33
Kansas St	Big 12	21	12	Miami FL	7	39	32
Indiana	Big Ten	96	88	Massachusetts	10	39	29
Kentucky	SEC	81	76	Kent	7	33	26
Georgia	SEC	22	16	Missouri	-4	21	25
Maryland	ACC	100	92	Temple	-16	9	25
Arizona St	Pac 12	35	31	Illinois	7	31	24
Minnesota	Big Ten	77	73	New Hampshire	13	37	24
Memphis	Big East	121	115	Arkansas St	-27	-5	22
Georgia Tech	ACC	52	47	Presbyterian	35	56	21
San Diego St	Big East	71	67	Army	14	35	21
Rice	CUSA	115	108	Kansas	-20	1	21

After going through each game, it appears the "future Big East" could have six teams in the top half (60th place) of the FBS after yesterday's games, though Temple probably drops below that mark after a very disappointing performance against Maryland.  That stacks up as equal with the ACC and well as doubling the highest non-BCS conference (WAC, 3 teams).  Obviously ACC football is not helped by Pitt or Syracuse, neither of which is in the top 80.  Here are the number of Top 60 teams in each conference:

• SEC - 13 (though Massey will have just 3 in the Top 10 after Arkansas loss)
• Big 12 - 9 (all in the top 30 with the addition of #28 West Virginia)
• Pac 12 - 9 (matches SEC and Big 12 with 3 in the top 10, but no other top 30)
• Big Ten - 9 (Michigan State only top 15 after Wisconsin and Nebraska losses)
• 2013 Big East - 6 (plus Notre Dame and includes Boise St at #11, but need Cincy, USF and Louisville to climb into top 30)
• ACC 6 (unlike polls, no team in top 20 yet)
• WAC 3 (none in top 40)
• MAC 2 (none in top 40)
• Mountain West 1 (USF's upset of then-No. 27 Nevada huge)
• Independent 1 (Brigham Young just outside top 30, so very tempting for Big East press)

While a dream football scenario of both BYU and Notre Dame joining the Big East is virtually impossible, the conference can still be well-positioned if they hold onto the current line-up and can get someone to step up along with Boise State to keep an overall sports package with the conference very enticing.  Here is the list of all conferences and an estimate of where their teams will rank after this week's performance.  Don't get me wrong, as a basketball fan I would rather have beefed up basketball with Memphis and Temple then picked up two more football teams if I had the choice, but as long as we have them we want them and the rest to do well and increase the overall value of the next Big East TV package.

Team	Conference	Prev Rank	New Rank	Opponent	Massey Pr	Actual	Beat Spread
Boise State	Big East	12	11	Idle
Notre Dame	Big East	18	20	Purdue	17	3	-14
Cincinnati	Big East	42	38	Pittsburgh	13	24	11
South Florida	Big East	46	45	Nevada	-7	1	8
Louisville	Big East	48	48	Missouri St	25	28	3
Connecticut	Big East	58	59	NC State	3	-3	-6
Rutgers	Big East	56	60	Howard	41	26	-15
Temple	Big East	57	63	Maryland	16	-9	-25
San Diego St	Big East	71	67	Army	14	35	21
SMU	Big East	87	78	SF Austin	12	52	40
UCF	Big East	80	81	Ohio St	-18	-15	3
Navy	Big East	83	83	Idle
Houston	Big East	90	90	Louisiana Tech	-7	-7	0
Memphis	Big East	121	115	Arkansas St	-27	-5	22
Florida St	ACC	23	21	Savannah St	51	55	4
Clemson	ACC	25	25	Ball St	18	25	7
Virginia Tech	ACC	32	35	Austin Peay	43	35	-8
Miami FL	ACC	33	40	Kansas St	-7	-39	-32
Georgia Tech	ACC	52	47	Presbyterian	35	56	21
North Carolina	ACC	49	52	Wake Forest	5	-1	-6
NC State	ACC	65	64	Connecticut	-3	3	6
Virginia	ACC	70	72	Penn St	1	1	0
Boston College	ACC	75	74	Maine	17	31	14
Wake Forest	ACC	76	75	North Carolina	-5	1	6
Duke	ACC	73	77	Stanford	-21	-37	-16
Syracuse	ACC	85	84	USC	-21	-13	8
Pittsburgh	ACC	82	85	Cincinnati	-13	-24	-11
Maryland	ACC	100	92	Temple	-16	9	25
Oklahoma	Big 12	4	3	Florida A&M	47	56	9
Baylor	Big 12	11	9	Idle
Oklahoma St	Big 12	3	10	Arizona	13	-21	-34
Kansas St	Big 12	21	12	Miami FL	7	39	32
Texas	Big 12	17	14	New Mexico	34	45	11
TCU	Big 12	19	18	Grambling	52	56	4
Texas Tech	Big 12	36	27	Texas St	12	48	36
West Virginia	Big 12	28	28	Idle
Iowa St	Big 12	30	29	Iowa	-3	3	6
Kansas	Big 12	64	70	Rice	20	-1	-21
Michigan St	Big Ten	6	4	C Michigan	28	34	6
Wisconsin	Big Ten	13	17	Oregon St	10	-3	-13
Nebraska	Big Ten	15	19	UCLA	7	-6	-13
Michigan	Big Ten	20	24	Air Force	18	6	-12
Ohio St	Big Ten	29	32	UCF	18	15	-3
Iowa	Big Ten	37	37	Iowa St	3	-3	-6
Illinois	Big Ten	44	51	Arizona St	-7	-31	-24
Northwestern	Big Ten	55	53	Vanderbilt	-3	10	13
Purdue	Big Ten	61	56	Notre Dame	-17	-3	14
Penn St	Big Ten	68	69	Virginia	-1	-1	0
Minnesota	Big Ten	77	73	New Hampshire	13	37	24
Indiana	Big Ten	96	88	Massachusetts	10	39	29
BYU	Independent	31	34	Weber St	31	32	1
Oregon	Pac 12	5	6	Fresno St	24	17	-7
Stanford	Pac 12	14	7	Duke	21	37	16
USC	Pac 12	9	8	Syracuse	21	13	-8
Arizona St	Pac 12	35	31	Illinois	7	31	24
Arizona	Pac 12	43	36	Oklahoma St	-13	21	34
Washington	Pac 12	38	39	LSU	-27	-38	-11
Utah	Pac 12	45	46	Utah St.	-3	-7	-4
UCLA	Pac 12	51	49	Nebraska	-7	6	13
California	Pac 12	53	55	Southern Utah	23	19	-4
Oregon St	Pac 12	67	65	Wisconsin	-10	3	13
Washington St	Pac 12	88	87	E Washington	5	4	-1
Colorado	Pac 12	98	103	CS Sacramento	18	-2	-20
Alabama	SEC	1	1	W Kentucky	45	35	-10
LSU	SEC	2	2	Washington	27	38	11
South Carolina	SEC	8	5	East Carolina	28	38	10
Texas A&M	SEC	10	13	Florida	10	-3	-13
Arkansas	SEC	7	15	ULM	30	-3	-33
Georgia	SEC	22	16	Missouri	-4	21	25
Missouri	SEC	16	22	Georgia	4	-21	-25
Florida	SEC	26	23	Texas A&M	-10	3	13
Tennessee	SEC	24	26	Georgia St	45	38	-7
Mississippi St	SEC	34	33	Auburn	3	18	15
Auburn	SEC	39	42	Mississippi St	-3	-18	-15
Vanderbilt	SEC	40	44	Northwestern	3	-10	-13
Mississippi	SEC	60	58	UTEP	14	18	4
Kentucky	SEC	81	76	Kent	7	33	26
Southern Miss	CUSA	62	62	Idle
Tulsa	CUSA	72	71	Tulane	24	35	11
East Carolina	CUSA	93	96	South Carolina	-28	-38	-10
UTEP	CUSA	101	102	Mississippi	-14	-18	-4
Marshall	CUSA	104	104	W Carolina	27	28	1
Rice	CUSA	115	108	Kansas	-20	1	21
UAB	CUSA	118	118	Idle
Tulane	CUSA	116	120	Tulsa	-24	-35	-11
Army	Independent	102	105	San Diego St	-14	-35	-21
Ohio	MAC	47	43	New Mexico St	10	27	17
N Illinois	MAC	59	57	TN Martin	28	28	0
Toledo	MAC	66	66	Wyoming	1	3	2
W Michigan	MAC	92	89	E Illinois	19	31	12
Ball St	MAC	89	91	Clemson	-18	-25	-7
Bowling Green	MAC	94	93	Idaho	10	8	-2
Kent	MAC	91	99	Kentucky	-7	-33	-26
Miami OH	MAC	99	100	S Illinois	17	16	-1
Buffalo	MAC	107	107	Morgan St	31	22	-9
E Michigan	MAC	109	112	Illinois St	-1	-17	-16
C Michigan	MAC	112	113	Michigan St	-28	-34	-6
Akron	MAC	123	119	Florida Intl	-21	-3	18
Massachusetts	MAC	117	122	Indiana	-10	-39	-29
Nevada	Mountain West	27	30	South Florida	7	-1	-8
Fresno St	Mountain West	63	61	Oregon	-24	-17	7
Air Force	Mountain West	69	68	Michigan	-18	-6	12
Wyoming	Mountain West	78	79	Toledo	-1	-3	-2
Hawaii	Mountain West	79	80	Idle
Colorado St	Mountain West	95	98	N Dakota St	-7	-15	-8
UNLV	Mountain West	113	114	Northern Arizona	7	-3	-10
New Mexico	Mountain West	114	116	Texas	-34	-45	-11
Arkansas St	Sun Belt	74	82	Memphis	27	5	-22
ULL	Sun Belt	97	94	Troy	3	13	10
ULM	Sun Belt	105	97	Arkansas	-30	3	33
W Kentucky	Sun Belt	103	101	Alabama	-45	-35	10
North Texas	Sun Belt	106	106	TX Southern	35	27	-8
Florida Intl	Sun Belt	108	110	Akron	21	3	-18
Troy	Sun Belt	110	111	ULL	-3	-13	-10
Middle Tenn St	Sun Belt	119	117	FL Atlantic	7	14	7
FL Atlantic	Sun Belt	122	121	Middle Tenn St	-7	-14	-7
South Alabama	Sun Belt	124	123	Nicholls St	7	6	-1
Louisiana Tech	Western Athletic	41	41	Houston	7	7	0
Utah St.	Western Athletic	50	50	Utah	3	7	4
San Jose St	Western Athletic	54	54	UC Davis	25	32	7
New Mexico St	Western Athletic	84	86	Ohio	-10	-27	-17
Texas St	Western Athletic	86	95	Texas Tech	-12	-48	-36
Idaho	Western Athletic	111	109	Bowling Green	-10	-8	2
UT San Antonio	Western Athletic	120	124	TX A&M Commerce	36	11	-25

Big East name change - not going to happen

Some minor buzz the last few days about the Big East possibly changing their name.  CBS had a story and a number of MU fans were discussing on various message boards.

Let's just put this one in the dustbin right now.  Not going to happen.  Aresco is a very bright guy and no way he lets this happen. NO WAY.  You don't get to where Aresco has been through his career to throw away 30+ years of naming convention and the brand equity that goes with it.  For the same reason the Big Ten and Big 12 didn't change their names, neither will the Big East.  The only major conference to change names of recency is the Pac 12, but they've also had a history of doing that. First it was the AAWU, then the Big 5, later the Big 6, then the Pac 6, followed by the Pac 8, then the Pac 10, and now the Pac 12.

So stop the silliness, the Big East name is not going to change.

MU Big East Schedule; despite lacking an all-conference player deepest team in conference could be favored in 15 of 18 BE games

In Big East play last year Marquette had the top player (Jae Crowder, 2nd in the country 11.12% Value Add at www.valueaddbasketball.com) and the best duo (combined with Darius Johnson-Odom a 16.38 Value Add).  Based on 2013 preseason Value Adds Marquette will only have the best player on the court 3 times in Big East play, vs. DePaul Feb. 3, at Villanova Feb. 23 and at Rutgers March 5.  The following is a comparison of where Marquette's top 3 players rank vs. the top 3 from each Big East opponent:

Date	Opponent	Rnk	Best Player	Ft	In	Rnk	2nd Best Player	Ft	In	Rnk	3rd Best Player	Ft	In
	Marquette	158	Gardner, Davante	6	8	317	Wilson, Jamil	6	7	327	Blue, Vander	6	4
1-Jan	Connecticut	20	Napier, Shabazz	6	0	110	Boatright, Ryan	6	0	205	Daniels, DeAndre	6	8
5-Jan	Georgetown	4	Porter, Otto	6	8	297	Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes	6	3	450	Trawick, Jabril	6	5
12-Jan	at Pittsburgh	37	Patterson, Lamar	6	5	61	Adams, Steven	6	10	271	Woodall, Tray	5	11
16-Jan	Seton Hall	57	Edwin, Fuquan	6	6	540	Cosby, Aaron	6	3	584	Auda, Patrik	6	9
19-Jan	at Cincinnati	55	Wright, Cashmere	6	0	392	Rubles, Titus	6	8	499	Parker, Jaquon	6	3
26-Jan	Providence	48	Henton, LaDontae	6	6	117	Cotton, Bryce	6	1	118	Ledo, Ricardo	6	5
28-Jan	South Florida	114	Collins, Anthony	6	1	194	Fitzpatrick, Toarlyn	6	8	356	Austin, Waverly	6	11
3-Feb	at Louisville	18	Dieng, Gorgui	6	10	59	Behanan, Chane	6	7	208	Smith, Russ	6	0
6-Feb	at South Florida	114	Collins, Anthony	6	1	194	Fitzpatrick, Toarlyn	6	8	356	Austin, Waverly	6	11
9-Feb	DePaul	246	Young, Brandon	6	3	345	Crockett, Jamee	6	4	815	Melvin, Cleveland	6	8
11-Feb	at Georgetown	4	Porter, Otto	6	8	297	Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes	6	3	450	Trawick, Jabril	6	5
16-Feb	Pittsburgh	37	Patterson, Lamar	6	5	61	Adams, Steven	6	10	271	Woodall, Tray	5	11
19-Feb	at Seton Hall	57	Edwin, Fuquan	6	6	540	Cosby, Aaron	6	3	584	Auda, Patrik	6	9
23-Feb	at Villanova	250	Yarou, Mouphtaou	6	10	403	Ochefu, Daniel	6	10	478	Bell, James	6	6
25-Feb	Syracuse	69	Fair, CJ	6	8	173	Southerland, James	6	8	254	Triche, Brandon	6	4
2-Mar	Notre Dame	19	Cooley, Jack	6	9	50	Grant, Jerian	6	5	152	Connaughton, Pat	6	5
5-Mar	at Rutgers	207	Miller, Dane	6	6	217	Mack, Myles	5	9	259	Seagears, Jerome	6	1
9-Mar	at St. John's	33	Harrison, D'Angelo	6	3	333	Sanchez, Orlando	6	9	484	Pointer, Sir'Dominic	6	6

In short, MUs top 3 do not look like a good match-up against most other Big East trios.  However, this will be balanced by the fact that Marquette has the deepest team in the Conference.  No other team has 10 players who project in the top 1000 (or top 25% of all players), and it may be that no team has as many potential "surprise" top 100 players.  If Gardner or Otule stay healthy all year they could emerge; if Blue improves as much as his age projects or Mayo as much as the typical freshman to sophomore season; Trent Lockett could return to freshman form with better teammates etc.

The following is how Marquette's top player (Gardner) ranks among the Conferences top players, etc, then all the way down the list until Jamal Ferguson projects as the best No. 10 player and Lockett as the best No. 11 player and obviously potentially much higher.

Rnk	MU player	Ft	In	Compared to other BE
158	Gardner, Davante	6	8	11 BE teams have better No. 1
317	Wilson, Jamil	6	7	9 have better No. 2
327	Blue, Vander	6	4	7 have better No. 3
463	Mayo, Todd	6	3	7 have better No. 4
531	Cadougan, Junior	6	1	5 have better No. 5
613	Anderson, Juan	6	6	5 have better No. 6
688	Otule, Chris	6	11	4 have better No. 7
848	Taylor, Steve	6	7	4 have better No. 8
951	Thomas, Jake	6	3	2 have better No. 9
979	Ferguson, Jamal	6	3	0 have better No. 10
1062	Lockett, Trent	6	4	0 have better No. 11
1323	Wilson, Derrick	6	0	5 have better No. 12

MU could be 7th best team, but with projected 2nd best BE record With UConn ineligible, there is a huge gap between the top 7 teams ending with MU at 25th and the 53rd best team in Rutgers.  Luckily for MU, the draw of home and away games could make them the favorite in 15 of 18 games - though at Rutgers would be a close call.

MU would be an underdog against national contender Louisville even at home, so having them as one of the 9 road games is better than a team where home court might make the difference.  There are 6 conference foes who would be close enough to MU in the rankings that the home court would determine the rankings, and MU gets all 6 of them at home (Providence, Pitt, ND, Syracuse, Georgetown and UConn), though they do also play at Georgetown and Pitt for possibly the only games besides Louisville in which MU would be the projected underdog.  You always expect a couple of upsets at least, but based just on who is favored MU would have a 15-3 edge though admittedly at Rutgers would be a close call.
Please don't accuse me of predicting a 15-3 finish. Even if MU was given an 80% chance of winning each of those 15 games, that means they would probably be upset 3 times so a 12-6 mark might be a more reasonable goal even assuming the team can gel and have a lot of people step up to make up for DJO and Jae being gone, but flipping the schedule might have made MU an underdog in 6 or 7 games, so the schedule creates a very high ceiling of what is possible.
While a prohibitive favorite in the conference this year, Louisville did not get a good draw and could be underdogs at Georgetown, Notre Dame, Syracuse and perhaps even UConn - who will treat that visit as their national championship.

So while it is certainly possible to see Marquette finish as low as 7th, their balance and a very favorable schedule makes it quite possible they could finish as high as 2nd and not impossible that they could contend for the title though a likely double digit loss at Louisville would give the Cardinals the tie-breaker.

Here is where each Big East team ranks nationally right now on Value Add.

Team	Rnk
Louisville	3
Providence	11
Pittsburgh	13
Notre Dame	17
Syracuse	22
Georgetown	24
Marquette	25
Connecticut	38
Rutgers	53
St. John's	59
South Florida	66
Villanova	69
Seton Hall	86
Cincinnati	90
DePaul	119

Non-Conference Schedule 2012-13, Part II

This time around I'm going to focus on the Maui Invitational. The primary team I'm going to focus on is Butler. While UNC and Texas loom as bigger names in the field, the only team we know for certain we will play are the Bulldogs. I'll then add a few thoughts about the rest of the field.

Butler (Neutral)

Something Old: The Bulldogs made consecutive NCAA Finals appearances in 2010 and 2011, but missed the tournament in 2012. A major reason was the departure of stars like Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack to the NBA. But the positives of deep NCAA runs often isn't felt for a couple years, and guys like Khyle Marshall, Andrew Smith, and Crishawn Hopkins now have the experience to be major contributors.

Something New: Last year, Butler lacked star power. This year, transfer Rotnei Clarke fills that role. He averaged over 15 ppg in each of his last two seasons at Arkansas and figures to be one of the best players in the A-10. In addition, freshman Kellen Dunham is a legitimate four-star recruit and lights-out shooter that will likely get significant minutes from the start.

Something Borrowed: After connecting on over 34% of their threes the past two seasons, Butler only shot 28.1% from three in 2011-12. That should improve thanks to Clarke and Dunham. CBS Sports' Jeff Goodman says "Clarke is the best shooter in the nation, and after a year off, he'll regain his throne. But even more importantly, Clarke will make Stevens and Butler nationally relevant again." This year's Butler team looks to be much better than last year's, and is certainly one that Marquette cannot overlook.

Something Blue (and Gold):  Most will see stopping Clarke as the key to stopping Butler, but shutting down Butler inside may be just as important. Smith and Marshall were the two leading scorers last year and combined to shoot at a 56.5% rate inside the arc. Guys like Chris Otule and Jamil Wilson will need to play big down low to beat the Bulldogs.

North Carolina: If Marquette beats Butler, they would likely face the Tarheels. James Micheal McAdoo will be the star of this team, but having lost four players to the first round of the NBA draft, this won't be last year's UNC. A number of freshmen, including Menomonee Falls' JP Tokoto, will need to play meaningful minutes for Roy Williams' team. This is likely the most vulnerable UNC team since 2009-10 when they missed the tournament after 3 players were drafted to the NBA from their 2009 NCAA Championship team.

Mississippi State: The Bulldogs are in transition after losing Arnett Moultrie to the NBA, Dee Bost to graduation, Rodney Hood to transfer, and Renardo Sidney to the dreaded early-declaration without being drafted.. New coach Rick Ray will have his work cut out for him as this is the beginning of a major rebuilding project.

Texas: The Longhorns return a stellar 2011 recruiting class led by Myck Kabongo and welcome in another stellar 2012 class led by Cameron Ridley. This is one of the most talented teams Rick Barnes has had to work with. The biggest question for this team is how quickly they can gel and mature as college players.

USC: The Trojans were bad last year, and just lost leading scorer Maurice Jones to academic ineligibility. However, they add three transfers and return two from injury. I find it hard to believe this team will be very good.

Illinois: The good news for John Groce is that senior Brandon Paul is a stud. The bad news is that after losing Meyers Leonard to the NBA draft and not bringing in much recruiting-wise, there just isn't much talent there. They will be relying on a number of sophomores to carry the load. This is the start of a major rebuilding process, and I can't see the Illini offering much threat to Marquette if they met along the way.

Chaminade: Not a D1 school. They host a nice tourney and had a great win over Virginia 30 years ago, but they'd be a rubber-stamped win for Buzz Williams' team.

This tournament really seems to have two classes of teams. Marquette, Butler, North Carolina, and Texas are all likely going to be in the NCAA Tournament at the end of the year and should be at or near the top of their respective conferences. MSU, USC, and Illinois are simply not very good teams and don't typify the types of teams you expect to see in Maui, in large part due to unexpected early-entry players. Beating Butler is imperative, as this tournament would be a severe let-down if Marquette didn't get the opportunity to play either North Carolina or Texas.