Advanced Ranking of top 150 college basketball teams for 2014 based on; 1, 'solid roster,' 2, spots open for recruits, and 3, if they can keep NBA prospects

(Note: the master table at the bottom was updated October 5 to reflect the biggest family signing ever as Kentucky landed Andrew and Aaron Harrison with a combined projected 16.5 Value Add.  South Florida, South Carolina and Illinois also had signings.  The master table is now ordered based on an average of Rnk 2 (NBA prospects leave in the draft) and Rnk 3 (they stay with their teams).  An average is probably the most accurate, as Kentucky is easily 1st if all four stay, drops to 24th if all 4 leave, and with keeping half the talent they would be 3rd in the country behind Arizona and Memphis in 2014.)

You can check out the 2013 preseason Value Add rankings anytime by going to www.valueaddbasketball.com and putting "2013" in the year field and "team" in the main search field.  However, in light of some very good observations in response to my 2014 rankings, I went through a systematic appraisal of the three main elements that will project how good each team should be in 2014.

The first step is adding up the projected Value Adds of everyone currently expected to be on the 2014 roster for all teams.  Players who have either signed already, or still have eligibility left and are NOT expected to be drafted after the 2013 season.  When we count just those players, Arizona has the best roster going into 2014, Memphis is second and Marquette is third.  Here is the first part of the chart that will grow throughout this piece:

2014 Rankings / players expected on roster 

Team	2014 roster	Rnk1
Arizona	53.57	1
Memphis	49.64	2
Marquette	45.06	3
Iowa	40.11	4
California	39.77	5
Providence	39.77	6
Notre Dame	39.21	7
Virginia	36.47	8
Stanford	36.12	9
Indiana	35.69	10
Arkansas	35.06	11
Texas	34.82	12
Maryland	33.83	13
Georgetown	32.78	14
Alabama	32.63	15
Florida	32.58	16
North Carolina St.	32.54	17
Michigan St.	32.12	18
Nevada Las Vegas	31.82	19
Kansas	31.76	20

Of course this isn't the whole picture.  Kentucky is the 113th best team based just on this part of the equation, because four of their players are expected to leave in the 2013 draft and they have not yet signed most of their class for next year as they can wait until late to take several of the top 20 players.  In order to get a grasp on how much value each team would likely get from the 2013 recruits they are currently chasing (freshman in 2014 Value Add), I first looked at what the expected Value Add was for players based on their ESPN Rating.

Based on the new ESPN Ratings scale for prospects, any recruit with a rating of 64 or higher will actually project to add Value.  This scale does NOT apply to past classes from 2007 to 2012, as ESPN's old scale gave much higher figures.  For example, right now there are only 6 players with a 96 or higher rating, while on the old scale ESPN averaged giving a 96 or higher to 55 players per class.  Likewise there are currently just 283 recruits from the 2014 class with a 70 or higher and on the old scale for past years ESPN averaged giving 1,069 recruits per class a 70 or higher.  So this year's "70" would have very likely been between an 80 and 90 in past years.  However, based on the new system for 2013 recruits only, here is the anticipated Value Add based on ESPN rating:

ESPN 9/30/2012	Value add
96	8.0
95	7.0
94	6.0
93	5.5
92	5.0
91	4.5
90	4.0
89	3.5
88	3.1
87	2.8
86	2.5
85	2.2
84	2.1
83	2.0
82	1.9
81	1.8
80	1.7
79	1.6
78	1.5
77	1.4
76	1.3
75	1.2
74	1.1
73	1.0
71	0.9
72	0.8
70	0.7
69	0.6
68	0.5
67	0.4
66	0.3
65	0.2
64	0.1
63	0.0

While I have been using a place holder to measure upcoming freshman classes, a critic pointed out in my last post that I was not accounting for how many open roster spots each team had to fill in recruitment.  To address this hole, I listed out the number of spots each team has to fill for next year.  I then looked up the uncommitted 2013 recruits (would be freshmen in 2014 season in Value Add) showing an interest in each team, and I basically assumed the team would get one in five of the kids at which they had a shot.  So if a team had 4 spots to fill I assumed they would get the 3rd best recruit they were after, the 8th best, the 13th best and the 18th best - though I had to estimate the curve when I got past the players that actually showed up in the ESPN data search.

I will use Duke as the example for this 2nd step.  Duke only ranked 32nd based on the players they already have committed through the 2014 season, with 27.84 in Value Add.  However, assuming they get one of the top 5 recruits currently considering them that should add 6 in Value Add (under R1 below for 1st Recruit), then another 5.0 in Value Add for their 2nd recruit, then 4.0, 3.5, 2.5 and 2.4 since they have six spots to fill.  When you add what they will likely get from recruits, Duke shoots all the way from 27.84 to 51.24 and moves from the 32nd best roster to the 3rd best roster ahead of Marquette - which is "full" with no spots open for a new recruit.  Of course, we know there are roster changes and MU could end up with a big recruit next year, but right now we are just filling empty spots.  Here is our new Top 20 once we divide up the uncommitted recruits among the schools they are considering.

Team	2014 roster	Rnk1	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	likely recr	Rnk2
Arizona	53.57	1	6	0					59.57	1
Memphis	49.64	2	2.5						52.14	2
Duke	27.84	32	6	5	4	3.5	2.5	2.4	51.24	3
Marquette	45.06	3							45.06	4
Kansas	31.76	20	7	3.5	2				44.26	5
Notre Dame	39.21	7	1.3	1.2	0.8	0.4			42.91	6
Providence	39.77	6	1.7	0.7					42.17	7
North Carolina	28.29	30	6	3.1	2.4	2.3			42.09	8
Georgetown	32.78	14	4.5	2.2	2				41.48	9
California	39.77	5	1.6	0	0				41.37	10
Iowa	40.11	4	0.6	0					40.71	11
Texas	34.82	12	3.5	2.2					40.52	12
Florida	32.58	16	4.5	1.6	0.7				39.38	13
Stanford	36.12	9	1.8	0.2					38.12	14
Virginia	36.47	8	1.6						38.07	15
Louisville	29.95	24	3.5	1.6	1.4	1.2			37.65	16
Michigan St.	32.12	18	2.5	1.3	1.2				37.12	17
Connecticut	31.58	21	3.5	1.2	0.7				36.98	18
Alabama	32.63	15	2.5	1	0.7				36.83	19
North Carolina St.	32.54	17	2.5	0.9	0	0	0		35.94	20

Which leads us to the final step, considering whether or not the NBA prospects leave for the pros.  Up until now we assume that Noel, Goodwin, Poythress and Harrow all leave Kentucky for the NBA draft in 2013.  If all of them leave, then even with the expected great recruiting class again next year, Kentucky only has the 24th best team in the country with 35.03.  With UCLA taking the top recruit from them this year and everyone going to the NBA, they are going to have to have some of those four decide to stay for 2014.  If all four were to stay, then Kentucky projects to shoot all the way up to a 63.5 Value Add to pass Arizona.

As you look down the list, in addition to the three teams already ahead of Marquette after step two, another 15 teams would pass Marquette IF all of their NBA prospects decide to skip the draft and stay for the 2014 season - so Marquette could drop as far as 19th in a worse case scenario.  However, it is pretty safe to assume that at least a majority of these prospects will take the paycheck and enter the draft.  The beauty of the 2014 season for Marquette is that even if they do not get another recruit, they are loaded AND do not have anyone on the roster projected to be drafted so they will have a much easier time keeping the team together.  In the end we can assume a few of these 15 teams manage to keep their NBA prospects on campus for another year, but if Marquette is not hit with injuries or transfers, they are likely to end up much closer to 4th than to 19th in the country.  Here are the top 150 teams in the land for the 2014 season (see Rnk3 at the right), and where each of them rank if they lose their NBA prospects (Rnk2) and if they don't get any more recruits with Value Add (Rnk3).

RnkAve	Team	2014 roster	Rnk1	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	likely recr	Rnk2	Add NBA if stay	If stay	Rnk3
1	Arizona	53.57	1	6	0					59.57	1		59.57	2
2	Memphis	49.64	2	2.5						52.14	2	Thomas	57.51	4
3	Kentucky	28.3	30	7	2.5	2.4	2.4			34.73	24	Noel, Goodwin, Poythress, Harrow	71.6	1
4	Duke	27.84	33	6	5	4	3.5	2.5	2.4	51.24	3		51.24	10
5	North Carolina	28.29	31	6	3.1	2.4	2.3			42.09	8	McAdoo, Hairston, Bullock	59.44	3
6	Texas	34.82	12	3.5	2.2					40.52	12	McClellan, Kabongo	57.38	5
7	Georgetown	32.78	14	4.5	2.2	2				41.48	9	Porter	53.56	8
8	Indiana	35.69	10							35.69	21	Zeller. Olapido	56.84	7
9	UCLA	26.77	37	4.5	2.2					33.47	26	Muhammad, Anderson, Smith	57.1	6
10	Marquette	45.06	3							45.06	4		45.06	19
11	Kansas	31.76	20	7	3.5	2				44.26	5		44.26	21
12	Louisville	29.95	24	3.5	1.6	1.4	1.2			37.65	16	Dieng, Blackshear	50.75	13
13	Michigan St.	32.12	18	2.5	1.3	1.2				37.12	17	Dawson, Payne	50.85	12
14	Michigan	28.91	29	1.8	1.7	1.6	1.3			35.31	22	Burke, Hardaway	51.13	11
15	Notre Dame	39.21	7	1.3	1.2	0.8	0.4			42.91	6		42.91	22
16	Florida	32.58	17	4.5	1.6	0.7				39.38	13	Young	45.91	16
17	North Carolina St.	32.74	15	2.5	0.9	0	0	0		36.14	20	Brown. Leslie	48.95	14
18	Providence	39.77	5	1.7	0.7					42.17	7		42.17	26
19	Ohio St.	24.59	43	4.5	1.8	1.6				32.49	30	Craft, Thomas	51.69	9
20	California	39.77	6	1.6	0	0				41.37	10		41.37	27
21	Connecticut	31.58	21	3.5	1.2	0.7				36.98	18	Napier	45.61	17
22	Alabama	32.63	16	2.5	1	0.7				36.83	19	Releford	45.3	18
23	Arkansas	35.06	11							35.06	23	Young	46.73	15
24	Iowa	40.11	4	0.6	0					40.71	11		40.71	29
25	Maryland	33.83	13							33.83	25	Stoglin, Len	44.35	20
26	Stanford	36.12	9	1.8	0.2					38.12	14		38.12	32
27	Virginia	36.47	8	1.6						38.07	15		38.07	33
28	Nevada Las Vegas	31.82	19	0.7	0.5	0.4	0			33.42	27	Moser	40.81	28
29	Oklahoma St.	29.07	27	2.3	0.7	0.3	0			32.37	31	Nash	39.3	31
30	Syracuse	18.02	79	4.5	2.2	1.2	1.1	1	0.9	28.92	39	Fair, Carter-Williams	42.25	25
31	Colorado	29.72	25							29.72	33	Roberson	39.49	30
32	Baylor	22.08	60	3.5	0	0				25.58	52	Austin, Heslip	42.58	23
33	Pittsburgh	23.01	54	2	0.2					25.21	55	Adams, Patterson	42.28	24
34	Houston	31.48	22	0.9	0.4	0.2				32.98	28		32.98	36
35	Georgia Tech	30.19	23	1.6	1.1					32.89	29		32.89	37
36	West Virginia	29.43	26	1.5						30.93	32		30.93	39
37	Tennessee	22.65	55	2.2	1.4					26.25	48	Stokes	33.68	35
38	St. John's	18.26	78	3.5	1.3	0.9	0.6			24.56	59	Harrison	34.99	34
39	Texas A&M	26.13	40	2.3	1.1					29.53	34		29.53	40
40	Wisconsin	24	48	1.7	1.2	1	0.8	0.6		29.3	35		29.3	41
41	New Mexico	28.11	32	1	0.1	0				29.21	36		29.21	42
42	Villanova	27.49	34	1.6	0					29.09	37		29.09	43
43	Texas Tech	28.98	28							28.98	38		28.98	44
44	South Carolina	26.65	38	1.6						28.25	40		28.25	45
45	Iowa St.	27.24	35	0.7	0					27.94	41		27.94	46
46	Purdue	26.99	36	0.4						27.39	42		27.39	49
47	Xavier	26.44	39	0.9	0	0	0			27.34	43		27.34	50
48	Missouri	21.01	62	1.6	0.3					22.91	65	Pressey	31.75	38
49	Oregon St.	25.6	42	1.4	0	0				27	44		27	51
50	Rutgers	22.49	56	2.2	1.6	0.4	0.2			26.89	45		26.89	53
51	Louisiana St.	23.92	51	1.7	0.7	0.3				26.62	46		26.62	54
52	Illinois	24.35	45	1.6	0.4					26.35	47		26.35	56
53	Harvard	25.78	41	0.4	0					26.18	49		26.18	57
54	South Florida	24	49	1	0.2	0.2	0.2			26	50		26	58
55	Seton Hall	23.89	52	1.6	0.4	0				25.89	51		25.89	59
56	Virginia Tech	22.18	58	1.6	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.2		25.48	53		25.48	60
57	Oklahoma	22.17	59	2.3	0.4	0.3	0.2			25.37	54		25.37	61
58	Mississippi	24.41	44	0.5	0.2	0				25.11	56		25.11	63
59	Virginia Commonwealth	23.99	50	0.8	0.1					24.89	57		24.89	64
60	DePaul	22.49	57	1.6	0.8					24.89	58		24.89	65
61	Richmond	24.05	47	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	24.25	60		24.25	66
62	La Salle	23.43	53	0.8	0	0	0	0	0	24.23	61		24.23	67
63	South Carolina Upstate	24.07	46	0	0	0	0	0		24.07	62		24.07	69
64	San Diego St.	18.46	74	1.3	0.6	0.4	0.3	0		21.06	70	Franklin	26.61	55
65	Minnesota	21.63	61	1.4	0.3					23.33	63		23.33	70
66	Kansas St.	19.47	67	1.4	1.1	0.8	0.5			23.27	64		23.27	71
67	Southern California	19.02	71	1.6	0.4	0.2				21.22	69	Dedmon	24.16	68
68	Creighton	15.69	88	0.6	0	0				16.29	89	McDermott	27.85	48
69	Oregon	19.51	66	1.6	0.6	0.2	0	0		21.91	66		21.91	73
70	Wake Forest	20.74	63	0.6	0.1					21.44	67		21.44	75
71	Southern California	17.74	81	1.6	1.1	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	21.44	68		21.44	76
72	Gonzaga	14.48	97	1.1	0.2	0.1	0	0	0	15.88	92	Pangos	26.96	52
73	Vermont	20.35	64	0.2	0	0	0	0		20.55	71		20.55	77
74	Auburn	19.33	69	1.2						20.53	72		20.53	78
75	Denver	20.08	65	0.4	0	0	0	0	0	20.48	73		20.48	79
76	Texas El Paso	19.15	70	0.7	0.4					20.25	74		20.25	80
77	Mississippi St.	18.54	73	1.5	0.2	0	0			20.24	75		20.24	81
78	Northwestern	13.76	103	1.4	0	0	0	0		15.16	100	Sobolewski	25.19	62
79	Clemson	19.42	68	0.7						20.12	76		20.12	83
80	St. Mary's	18.3	76	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.1	0	0	19.9	77		19.9	84
81	Washington St.	18.28	77	1.2	0.2	0	0			19.68	78		19.68	85
82	Saint Joseph's	10.19	134	1	0.2	0	0			11.39	125	Galloway, Aiken	27.91	47
83	Fresno St.	18	80	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.1	0	0	19.6	79		19.6	86
84	Wichita St.	18.41	75	0.9	0.1	0				19.41	80		19.41	87
85	Illinois St.	18.86	72	0.4	0.1	0	0	0		19.36	81		19.36	88
86	Brigham Young	16.32	85	2.2						18.52	82		18.52	91
87	UAB	17.49	82	0.4	0	0				17.89	83		17.89	93
88	Florida St.	12.81	112	2	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0	16.01	91	Miller	19.08	90
89	Georgia	10.82	123	1.5	0.1	0	0	0		12.42	116	Caldwell-Pope	22.6	72
90	Cleveland St.	17.29	83	0.1	0					17.39	84		17.39	95
91	Tulsa	16.25	86	0.8	0.3	0	0	0		17.35	85		17.35	96
92	Central Florida	15.67	89	1.3	0	0	0			16.97	86		16.97	98
93	South Dakota St.	16.83	84	0	0	0	0			16.83	87		16.83	99
94	North Texas	9.55	141	0.8	0.6	0.4				11.35	126	Mitchell	21.76	74
95	Penn St.	14.64	94	1.6	0.1					16.34	88		16.34	100
96	Butler	16.01	87	0	0					16.01	90		16.01	101
97	Drexel	10.67	126	0.7	0.2	0	0	0	0	11.57	123	Massenat	20.13	82
98	Boise St.	15.28	90	0.5	0	0	0			15.78	93		15.78	102
99	Texas Christian	14.75	93	0.8	0.1	0	0	0		15.65	94		15.65	103
100	Vanderbilt	14.1	100	1.4	0	0	0	0	0	15.5	95		15.5	104
101	Massachusetts	10.55	128	0.9	0	0	0	0	0	11.45	124	Williams	19.29	89
102	Cincinnati	13.16	107	1.8	0.4	0	0	0		15.36	96		15.36	105
103	St. Louis	14.63	95	0.7	0	0	0	0	0	15.33	97		15.33	106
104	Northeastern	14.6	96	0.6	0	0	0	0	0	15.2	98		15.2	107
105	Quinnipiac	15.1	91	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	15.2	99		15.2	108
106	Wagner	15.06	92	0	0	0	0	0	0	15.06	101		15.06	109
107	Washington	10.09	135	1.6	0	0	0	0	0	11.69	121	Wilcox	17.83	94
108	Akron	14.33	98	0.4	0	0	0	0	0	14.73	102		14.73	111
109	Arizona St.	13.72	105	0.7	0	0	0			14.42	103		14.42	112
110	North Dakota St.	14.14	99	0	0	0	0			14.14	104		14.14	113
111	Florida Gulf Coast	14.02	101	0	0	0	0	0		14.02	105		14.02	114
112	George Mason	12.9	110	1.1	0	0	0	0		14	106		14	115
113	Loyola Marymount	13.82	102	0	0	0	0			13.82	107		13.82	116
114	Miami FL	10.3	133	1.8	1.4	0.2	0.1	0	0	13.8	108		13.8	117
115	UC Santa Barbara	13.75	104	0	0	0	0	0	0	13.75	109		13.75	118
116	Rhode Island	13.01	108	0.5						13.51	110		13.51	119
117	Robert Morris	13.35	106	0	0	0	0			13.35	111		13.35	120
118	Temple	11.53	117	1.5	0	0	0	0		13.03	112		13.03	121
119	Mercer	12.99	109	0	0	0	0	0		12.99	113		12.99	122
120	Charlotte	11.28	120	1.6	0	0	0	0		12.88	114		12.88	123
121	Southern Methodist	12.83	111	0	0	0				12.83	115		12.83	124
122	Utah St.	7.98	156	0	0	0	0			7.98	157	Medlin	17.31	97
123	Northern Iowa	6.83	166	0.4	0					7.23	163	Tuttle	17.94	92
124	Tulane	12.38	113	0	0	0	0			12.38	117		12.38	126
125	Marshall	12.34	114	0	0	0	0	0	0	12.34	118		12.34	127
126	Davidson	12.03	115	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	12.13	119		12.13	128
127	Wisconsin Green Bay	9.38	145	0	0	0	0	0	0	9.38	146	Brown	14.77	110
128	Delaware	11.98	116	0	0	0	0	0	0	11.98	120		11.98	129
129	Boston College	11.4	118	0.2	0					11.6	122		11.6	130
130	San Diego	11.35	119	0	0	0	0	0	0	11.35	127		11.35	131
131	Ohio	10.79	124	0.3	0	0	0	0	0	11.09	128		11.09	132
132	Arkansas Little Rock	11.06	121	0	0	0	0	0	0	11.06	129		11.06	133
133	Nebraska	9.67	138	0.9	0.4	0	0	0	0	10.97	130		10.97	134
134	Indiana St.	10.87	122	0	0	0	0			10.87	131		10.87	135
135	Drake	10.63	127	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	10.83	132		10.83	136
136	Southern Mississippi	10.76	125	0	0	0	0	0		10.76	133		10.76	137
137	Dayton	10.55	129	0.1	0	0	0	0		10.65	134		10.65	138
138	Northern Colorado	10.55	130	0	0	0				10.55	135		10.55	139
139	St. Francis NY	10.45	131	0	0	0	0	0	0	10.45	136		10.45	140
140	Louisiana Tech	10.38	132	0	0	0	0	0		10.38	137		10.38	141
141	Utah	9.5	143	0.7	0	0	0			10.2	138		10.2	142
142	College of Charleston	9.6	139	0.3	0	0	0	0	0	9.9	139		9.9	143
143	Old Dominion	9.84	136	0	0	0	0	0		9.84	140		9.84	144
144	Towson	9.75	137							9.75	141		9.75	145
145	Georgia Southern	8.15	154	1.4	0.2	0	0	0		9.75	142		9.75	146
146	Long Beach St.	9.58	140	0	0	0	0	0	0	9.58	143		9.58	147
147	Buffalo	9.54	142	0	0	0	0	0	0	9.54	144		9.54	148
148	Manhattan	9.48	144	0	0	0	0	0	0	9.48	145		9.48	149
149	Cal St. Northridge	9.28	146	0	0	0	0			9.28	147		9.28	151
150	Boston University	9.17	147	0	0	0	0	0		9.17	148		9.17	152