Marquette drops out of AP, ESPN and Value Add Top 25; opens with #4 Ohio State (Craft 8th best player and Thomas 12th)

I can tell basketball season is back upon us when I post an article and realize one of our other writers was writing simultaneously!  Before looking at this post, please read the great take on the tough job of Athletic Director below by clicking here.

The preseason polls are out, and Marquette is out of both top 25s but getting a chance to make an immediate mark vs. Ohio State on November 9 at 6 p.m. CST on NBC Sports.

The Buckeyes are ranked #4 by both the coaches and writers.  While Value Add ranks them slightly lower at #10, it also indicates that they should have the #2 duo in the country.  Aaron Craft projects as the 8^th best player in the country, while Deshaun Thomas ranks as the 12^th best player.  Marquette is deeper, as the Buckeyes only have seven top 1000 players while Marquette has ten.

Both the AP and ESPN agreed with Value Add’s appraisal of Indiana as the #1 team in the country this year.  In most cases the coaches and writers poll was pretty close to Value Add.

A few changes in the past couple of months – three players were mistakenly flagged after last season as going to the NBA but stayed and are now being added back to the database.  Jeff Withey still being at Kansas pushed them up to 7^th place and temporarily bumped Marquette out of the Top 25.  Sean Kilpatrick of Cincinnati and Michael Snaer at Florida State were not enough to get either team back into the top 25.

While I doubt Kentucky will be able to reload this year for a title run and believe their #3 is too high, I am sure they will be higher than Value Adds 18^th, and Value Add projects they are the frontrunner for the 2014 title.  I am sure UNC will likewise outperform their raw Value Add.

My question is whether or not UCLA is actually this year’s Kentucky – a team that could be at the Final Four behind incredible freshmen.  It was UCLA that beat out Kentucky for Shabazz Muhammad and with fellow freshman Kyle Anderson they could be much better than their 13^th rank – and Value Add calculates that duo could approach the level of Wall and Cousins for their freshman season.

The following are my notes on all top 25 teams.

And my headline was a teaser.  While Kansas did bump Marquette out of the top 25 temporarily, when the NCAA ruled that Ricardo Ledo must sit out this year it bumped Providence down to 33^rd and put Marquette back in the top 25.  The fact that Kris Dunn is supposed to be out for the 1^st semester due to surgery drops them to 58^th until his return.

TEAM	Value Add	AP	ESPN	Notes on differences
Indiana	1	1	1	Said this the day after the title
Louisville	6	2	2	Marra's injury dropped them from 3rd to 6th
Kentucky	18	3	3	Sure they will be closer to 3rd, but believe a year between title chances
Ohio State	10	4	4	Only UCLA better duo than #8 Craft/#12 Thomas
Michigan	27	5	5	Only UCLA & Ohio St. have better duo than #22 Burke & #42 McGary, Value Add just doesn't show depth
North Carolina State	4	6	6
Kansas	7	7	7	Jeff Withey IS still on roster
Duke	14	8	8	Perhaps a little reputation?
Syracuse	22	9	9	See Duke above?
Florida	15	10	10
North Carolina	31	11	12	Like Kentucky, hard to measure but need a year to rebuild
Arizona	12	12	11	2014 National Contender
UCLA	2	13	13	FR Muhammad and Anderson make them this year's Kentucky - could be Wall-Cousins level
Michigan State	9	14	14
Missouri	16	15	17
Creighton	21	16	15
Memphis	3	17	16	Probably too high, but 4 juniors rank higher than any MU player
UNLV	8	18	19	4 top 200 players, one from each class
Baylor	5	19	18	#38 Heslip, #52 Jackson, #74 Austin
San Diego State	54	20	20	only 2 players in top 400, none in top 100
Gonzaga	32	21	22
Notre Dame	17	22	23
Wisconsin	23	23	21
Cincinnati	43	24		Sean Kilpatrick IS still on roster, but still don't have them ranked
Florida State	96	25	24	Michael Snaer IS still on roster, don't know value of 7-foot-3 Boris Bojanovsky
Texas	11		24	People don't know how much freshman improve - sophomores McClellon #36, Holmes #99, Kabongo #157, Bond #321
Pittsburgh	13			Jump sounds too high, but don't expect 2012 repeat
Minnesota	19
Arkansas	20			Is BJ Young really a top 10 player?
Georgetown	24			If Otto Porter really a top 10 player?
Marquette	25			dropped out due to Kansas, then back ahead of Providence

Below are the current top 50 players according to Value Add - and as always corrections are welcome - just email jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com or send through www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Rnk	Top 50 players	Team
1	Zeller, Cody	Indiana
2	McDermott, Doug	Creighton
3	Muhammad, Shabazz	UCLA
4	Porter, Otto	Georgetown
5	Anderson, Kyle	UCLA
6	McCollum, CJ	Lehigh
7	Young, BJ	Arkansas
8	Craft, Aaron	Ohio St.
9	Perry, Kendrick	Youngstown St.
10	Galloway, Langston	Saint Joseph's
11	Roberson, Andre	Colorado
12	Thomas, Deshaun	Ohio St.
13	Medlin, Preston	Utah St.
14	Pangos, Kevin	Gonzaga
15	Canaan, Isaiah	Murray St.
16	Noel, Nerlens	Kentucky
17	Pressey, Phil	Missouri
18	Dieng, Gorgui	Louisville
19	Cooley, Jack	Notre Dame
20	Napier, Shabazz	Connecticut
21	Massenat, Frantz	Drexel
22	Burke, Trey	Michigan
23	Tuttle, Seth	Northern Iowa
24	Mitchell, Tony	North Texas
25	Wolters, Nate	South Dakota St.
26	Kilpatrick, Sean	Cincinnati
27	Releford, Trevor	Alabama
28	Caldwell-Pope, Kentavious	Georgia
29	Stoglin, Terrell	Maryland
30	Boynton, Kenny	Florida
31	Withey, Jeff	Kansas
32	Broekhoff, Ryan	Valparaiso
33	McGruder, Rodney	Kansas St.
34	Wyatt, Khalif	Temple
35	Harrison, D'Angelo	St. John's
36	McClellan, Sheldon	Texas
37	Sobolewski, Dave	Northwestern
38	Heslip, Brady	Baylor
39	Patterson, Lamar	Pittsburgh
40	Dellavedova, Matthew	St. Mary's
41	Williams, Chaz	Massachusetts
42	McGary, Mitch	Michigan
43	Threatt, Jarvis	Delaware
44	Dixon, Michael	Missouri
45	O'Neale, Royce	Denver
46	Kazemi, Arsalan	Rice
47	Cobbs, Justin	California
48	Covington, Robert	Tennessee St.
49	Johnson, Kerron	Belmont
50	Henton, LaDontae	Providence