MU’s best FT of the Century (96%) beats LSU; Gardner’s 81% tops of any BIG man in country

I’m not sure if MU fans realize what they saw Saturday when MU hit 24 of 25 free throws to beat LSU 84-80.  The 96% from the line is the best Marquette has shot in 409 games this century (since the 2000-2001 season began).  It is very rare for a team's free throw shooting to change who wins or loses the game, but the was not only the greatest shooting percentage of the century but MU did it in a game in which MU would have LOST the game with average free throw shooting of 17 of 25.

The team was led by a 9-9 performance by 6-foot-8, 270 pound Davante Gardner.  There are 49 players 270 pounds or bigger in D1 basketball, and they average 56% from the line and Davante’s 81% for the season makes him the only of these 49 above 75%.

Overall, D1 players average hitting 69% of their free throws, so every time a player hits a free throw he “adds” .31 points above what was expected, and every time he misses he takes .69 off the board (see end of this points for the very advanced calculations for 1-and-1 front ends, offensive rebounds etc., but this basic formula is close).

On Saturday, the team shot even better than Steve Novak did for his career.  Novak made 63 more shots that an average player would have when he went 243 of 261 (93%) so for his career. The rest of MU's players this Century have combined for a 71% mark from the line, so with Novak MU has shot three percent better than the average team of the century resulting in 252 more points in 13 seasons than would be average.  So MU's overall 72% from the line beginning in 2000-2001 means instead of scoring 29,799 points in those 409 games, MU has scored 30,031.

	FTM	FTA	FT%	Plus/Minus
Steve Novak	243	261	93%	63
All other MU this century	6,297	8,852	71%	189
Total 21st century	6,540	9,113	72%	252

However Saturday was the first time MU had ever hit 96% from the line in the 344 games in which they got to the line at least 15 times (the average team goes 14 of 20 or 14 of 21 on a given night, so below 15 attempts is very low).  The only two times MU ever shot this high a percent previously was in two losses in which MU rarely made it to the line (12-12 against ECU in 2003 and 7-7 against UAB in 2005).

Saturday was one of the few times free throw shooting was the difference

A point I always stress is how very rare it truly is for free throw shooting to be the difference in a game.  Teams are going to usually shoot fairly close to 69%, and unless it’s a one or two point game, getting to the line and the other three factors (field goal shooting, offensive rebounding and turnovers) are more important than the slight fluctuation of a point or two in scoring based on how well you shoot while there.  However, on Saturday MU scored 7 points MORE than they would have with average (17 of 25) shooting, so they would have lost 77-80 rather than winning 84-80.

Below are MU’s best 20 and worst 10 free throw shooting performances of the century and in 26 of those 30 games the great or terrible free throw shooting did not change the winner of the.  The only other times besides Saturday that it did were the 19-20 outing against Missouri during the Final Four run of 2003 when MU would have lost in regulation with average free throw shooting, the 79-76 win in 2010 vs. Cincy which MU would have lost without 16 of 17, and on the flip side 63-61 loss at South Florida when MU would have won 61-57 with average free throw shooting. 

Of course 1 or 2 points games can be decided by free throw shooting, and MU’s 4 of 9 against Green Bay was two points LESS than expected, so could have meant a shot in overtime to avoid the upset.  But in 278 of 409 MU games this century MU’s free throw shooting has been within 2 points either way of average, while in 92 games MU has shot 3 or points better and in just 39 games MU has shot 3 points or more worse than expected.

The following are the best 20 free throw shooting days, the worst 10, and the Plus/Minus on how many points MU added or subtracted at the line.

Rank	Result	Opponent	MU pts	FT	FTA	FT%	Plus/minus	Season	Change result?
1	W	LSU	84	24	25	96	6.75	2013	Lost 77-80
2	W	@DEP	89	22	23	95.7	6.13	2012	No
3	L	Lville	70	21	22	95.5	5.82	2003	No
4	W	Mizzou	101	19	20	95	5.2	2003	L Reg (W96-92 OT)
5	L	UAB	76	18	19	94.7	4.89	2003	No
6	W	@Cinci	79	16	17	94.1	4.27	2010	Lost 75-76 OT
7	W	UH	76	28	30	93.3	7.3	2005	No
8	W	UWM	64	18	20	90	4.2	2012	No
9	L	@PITT	79	17	19	89.5	3.89	2007	No
10	W	UAB	98	33	37	89.2	7.47	2003	No
11	W	WVU	75	24	27	88.9	5.37	2009	No
12	W	CSU	89	24	27	88.9	5.37	2008	No
13	W	Lville	74	16	18	88.9	3.58	2012	No
14	W	Nova	80	31	35	88.6	6.85	2007	No
15	L	@ND	75	15	17	88.2	3.27	2011	No
16	W	DEP	79	15	17	88.2	3.27	2008	No
17	W	UH	85	15	17	88.2	3.27	2002	No
18	W	PC	96	22	25	88	4.75	2008	No
19	W	@Lville	77	22	25	88	4.75	2004	No
20	W	DEP	82	22	25	88	4.75	2001	No
335	W	@TUL	82	11	21	52.4	-3.49	2005	No
336	W	IPFW	80	12	23	52.2	-3.87	2008	No
337	W	ISU	59	16	31	51.6	-5.39	2007	No
338	W	@WVU	61	10	20	50	-3.8	2012	No
339	L	@Cinci	68	8	16	50	-3.04	2005	No
340	L	@USF	56	10	23	43.5	-5.87	2009	Won 61-57
341	W	WISC	60	7	17	41.2	-4.73	2013	No
342	L	SU	58	6	15	40	-4.35	2007	No
343	W	@USF	59	7	19	36.8	-6.11	2011	No
344	W	UMBC	68	6	18	33.3	-6.42	2007	No

I’m sure LSU fans couldn’t believe Davante Gardner hit all 9 of his free throws despite hard fouls, and running the court twice to take on a hard foul at the rim and save a long pass with a ballet move an end from the end line.  The fact is when teams see a huge guy step to the line they expect to see a Shaq like miss, but with his nine hits, Davante is clearly the best BIG man at the line in America.

Of the 49 guys who weigh 270 or better in D1 ball, the average guy shoots 56% from the line, and only 29 of the 49 are above even 50%. Here are the top 10:

Jer	270-pound or bigger FT	Team	Ft	In	Wt	Yr	FTM	FTA	FT%
54	Davante Gardner	Marquette	6	8	290	Jr	34	42	81%
44	Shaquille Cleare	Maryland	6	9	270	Fr	15	20	75%
50	Ian Chiles	Morgan St.	7	2	270	Jr	18	24	75%
34	Derrick Williams	Richmond	6	6	270	Jr	74	99	75%
42	Reggie Johnson	Miami	6	10	292	Sr	35	49	71%
25	Derrick Nix	Michigan St.	6	9	270	Sr	35	50	70%
41	Stephen Hurt	Lipscomb	6	10	285	Fr	21	30	70%
40	Kendrick Washington	Arkansas St.	6	7	274	Jr	22	33	67%
32	Andre Almeida	Nebraska	6	11	314	Sr	13	20	65%
20	A.J. Hammons	Purdue	7	1	280	Fr	20	31	65%

Advanced Calculations on the impact of free throws

Now for the advanced stats guys, I am sure you are running through a bunch of scenarios that would throw off the simple equation of plus-31% for made free throws and minus-69% for missed free throws.  It is true that this equation only measures the impact of the free throw make or miss itself and not what happens after.

In short, if the free throw made is the front end of a 1-and-1, then the make is actually worth a full point (1.00) because not only have you made the free throw in question (plus 0.31), but you have also given yourself another free throw you would not have had, which results in another 0.69 points on average.  My model estimates that about 1 in 10 free throws are the front end of one-and-ones, but will certainly alter that if someone has actual figures.  If 10% of all free throws are the front end of one-and-ones, then the overall made free throw would be worth plus-0.38 points.

	Impact	Off Reb Pts	Total impact
Made front of 1-1 (10%)	1.00	-	1.00
Made any other (90%)	0.31	-	0.31
Estimated impact of all made FT			0.38
Miss 2nd of 2, 3rd of 3 or "and 1" (43% of misses)	(0.69)	0.25	(0.44)
Miss technical (3%)	(0.69)	-	(0.69)
Miss 1st of 2 or 2nd of 3 (44%)	(0.69)	-	(0.69)
Miss front of 1-1 (10%)	(1.38)	0.25	(1.13)
Estimated impact of all misses			(0.64)

Now on the flip side, if you miss a free throw on which there can be no rebound (technical, first of two or 1^st or 2^nd of three free throws), then you have cost your team 0.69 points.

However, if you miss the front of the one-and-one you have cost yourself not only that free throw (minus .69) but the chance at the 2^nd free throw (another 0.69), so the missed front end of a one-and-one actually costs a team 1.38 points.

But, when you miss that free throw, or any other free throw that results in a chance at a rebound, then your team has about a 25% chance of grabbing the offensive rebound.  Teams grab close to 33% of all offensive rebounds, but I believe it has to be lower on free throws and higher on field goals, so the 25% is an estimate subject to change.

The percentages listed in the left column are also all subject to change, and the result of me running models that could be slightly off.  There have been just 242 technical fouls called on players so far this season, so I expect only about 3% of all foul shots are the result of technical fouls.  The one-and-one front end can obviously only occur on the 7^th, 8^th or 9^th foul of a half and only then if it is NOT an offensive ball possession foul or a shooting foul, so at 0 to 6 per game and even in those cases the 2^nd shot  of the one-and-one not fitting this category, I believe only about 10% of all free throws made or missed are the front end of a one-and-one.

As for the rest of the foul shots and which ones have or do not have rebound opportunities, it looks about even when I run models.

When you make the front end you get a 2^nd shot that can be rebounded, and the final shot of any shooting foul can be rebounded.  The first of two shots cannot be rebounded, but when you get a 3-shot opportunity you have two non-rebound free throws and just one shot that can be rebounded, and then any flagrant has to be added, so when I run simple models it appears that once we get past front ends and technicals, about 44% of shots have a rebound and 43% do not.

If these assumptions are correct then a missed free throw on average costs a team about 0.64 points and a made free throw adds about 0.38 points, and even if it turns out a few of the percentages I have are off a bit it’s not going to change either figure much.