How one minute and 13 seconds of play can pollute expectations months later

I've stopped and started writing this blog entry probably five times in the last six months, but after reading OnMilwaukee's story today about MU and time running out, it seemed now of never. There were some quotes in that article from Buzz Williams that were dead on right. He may have said them back in the day and people just ignored them, or felt it was Buzz just being a coach and lowering expectations. People should have paid more attention, the media especially.

Let's start first by taking a look back. Last year was a special year in MU basketball lore. Our first Big East regular season championship, a trip to the Elite 8 to cap a three year run of Sweet 16, Sweet 16, Elite 8 performances. That's a resume that 98% of schools across the country would sign up for right now. As a result, the expectations for the 2013-2014 season were more of the same. MU was moving to a slightly watered down, but still very solid Big East. Back were two senior big men men, the backup PG, a talented but engimatic Todd Mayo, and a loaded freshmen recruiting class. Supposed to be back was a super talented Vander Blue, but he decided to pursue his NBA dreams. Despite Blue's departure, the loss of their starting PG and young inexperienced newcomers, MU was picked to win the Big East this year.

Why?

Appears Buzz correctly identified why...because we had won in the past and why the hell wouldn't it continue? "They don't know who's on our team. If you look at our team, who's on our team? Who's on our team that's really had elite level success? The reason we're being picked is because of what was previously accomplished."

I would take it one step further and not just focus on what was accomplished previously, but how razor thin the accomplishment happened at all. In the last one minute and 13 seconds of the Davidson game in the NCAA Tournament MU needed almost divine intervention to come away with a win. EVERYTHING had to go right for the Warriors AND they needed Davidson to make a big mistake. It happened. Davidson played well down the stretch, only missed one free throw, made other shots, made free throws, but also watched MU hit three consecutive three pointers that they couldn't make the first 39 minutes. Then the big turnover by Davidson, the refs stopping the game to review to give MU a free timeout, and the Vander layup for the win. Pretty incredible, some would call lucky. Buzz described the advancement as a situation we are lucky to be in.

Regardless of your interpretation of the end of the Davidson game, what if it didn't happen? Say MU misses just one of those three pointers? Davidson makes their free throw and doesn't turn it over? Vander's kiss falls short? Say we didn't win that game, went down as a three seed in the first game. Would expectations be different this year? Would MU be chosen to win the Big East? Would Vander Blue have left?

If Buzz is right and we were picked to win the Big East and all the expectations that go with it due to past accomplishments then it seems if that most recent accomplishment was wiped out in a stunning upset loss, expectations would have changed. For the record, I think he is right and we were picked based on the past, not what we have which is a youthful team that is inconsistent and struggles at times at the guard positions. It goes to show that the line is razor thin. The ball bouncing a foot closer to the Davidson player likely means we lose, expectations are lowered, this season is viewed differently as more of the rebuilding year it really is.

A chance to watch that last one minute and 13 seconds again below and perhaps in your minds wonder if it didn't happen, would you view this year differently? Just as if the Final Four didn't happen in 2003, would you view the immediate years to follow differently? Expectations can get grossly out of whack based on a mere play or even 73 seconds of action.