MU in H. Ellenson's Final 3, Crystal Ball/Value Add Composite Projects MU 4th in BE in 2016

The 247 Crystal ball was already predicting that Marquette would land both Henry Ellenson and Haanif Cheatham for the 2015-16 season prior last night's announcement that Ellenson is down to Kentucky, Michigan State and Marquette. If that plays out, the following table gives the updated Value Add for each Marquette player, while every other team has been updated in the same way on the google sheet for the Value Add scholarship page

Name	2014	2015	Rnk	2016	Rnk	2016 Class	Ht	NBA	%
Ellenson, Henry	NA	NA		4.90	189	0 Prep	6'10"		TBD
Burton, Deonte	1.66	3.36	336	4.40	267	2 So	6'4"	SG	36%
Wilson, Duane	RS	1.80	654	3.70	313	1 Fr	6'2"
Johnson, JaJuan	0.30	2.98	407	2.98	402	2 So	6'5"	SG	30%
Cohen, Sandy	NA	1.13	872	2.28	528	1 Fr	6'5"
Cheatham, Haanif	NA	NA		1.41	719	0 Prep	6'5"
Noskowiak, Nick	NA	NA		1.20	806	0 Prep	6'2"
Levin, Gabe	0.57	Trans		1.15	830	2 So	6'7"
Fischer, Luke	0.36	0.72	1121	0.94	907	2 So	6'11"
Heldt, Matt	not yet	not yet		0.30		0 Prep	6'10"
Taylor, Steve	0.08	0.10	1925	0.12	1790	3 Jr	6'7"
Dawson, John	0.00	0.00	9999	0.00		2 So	6'2"
Ellenson, Wally	0.00	not yet		0.00		3 Jr	6'10"
Carlino, Matt	2.60	3.07	388			4 Sr	6'2"
Anderson, Juan	1.10	1.30	804			4 Sr	6'6"
Wilson, Derrick	0.00	0.00	9999			4 Sr	6'1"
Gardner, Davante	4.75	Grad				5 Gone	6'8"
Otule, Chris	0.41	Grad				5 Gone	6'11"
Thomas, Jake	0.77	Grad				5 Gone	6'3"
Wilson, Jamil	1.47	Grad				5 Gone	6'7"
Mayo, Todd	1.82	Draft				5 Gone	6'3"

After entering every Crystal ball prediction and then running the table for each team, Marquette projects to improve from 101st last year to 89th this season to 38th in 2015-16 - one of the biggest jumps in the country. In the Big East, only Georgetown, Xavier and Villanova project to be in better shape in 2016 - projecting a 4th place conference finish. Marquette is given better than a 70% chance of landing Henry Ellenson, who would project to nudge Burton out as MU's best player in 2015-16, and a 60% chance of landing Haanif Cheatham, who is en route to campus.

The following would be the top 25 teams and the ranking of each Big East team assuming Crystal Ball predictions and Value Add projections.

Team	2015 Conf	2014	2015	2016
Kentucky	SEC	8	3	1
Arizona	P12	2	4	2
Duke	ACC	5	2	3
Kansas	B12	9	1	4
North Carolina	ACC	26	6	5
Florida	SEC	4	8	6
Louisville	ACC	1	5	7
Connecticut	Amer	3	14	8
Virginia	ACC	24	9	9
Syracuse	ACC	10	11	10
Michigan St.	B10	16	38	11
Baylor	B12	20	23	12
UCLA	P12	17	21	13
Florida St.	ACC	30	22	14
Memphis	Amer	39	32	15
Texas	B12	67	10	16
Missouri	SEC	63	44	17
Georgetown	BE	69	31	18
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	84	28	19
Louisiana St.	SEC	66	50	20
Michigan	B10	6	24	21
Arkansas	SEC	21	20	22
Indiana	B10	89	26	23
Southern Methodist	Amer	33	15	24
North Carolina St.	ACC	51	33	25
Xavier	BE	81	64	29
Villanova	BE	22	13	30
Marquette	BE	101	89	38
St. John's	BE	76	46	45
Providence	BE	54	37	49
Seton Hall	BE	110	85	52
Butler	BE	147	51	82
Creighton	BE	27	126	127
DePaul	BE	150	150	142

Fox Sports Latest of Top 10 Sports Sites to give Value Add Great Coverage (formatting fixed)

Fox Sports did a nice piece on Value Add yesterday that has resulted in 1,100 Facebook Shares so far. It was a lot more fun when NBC Sports picked up on it back when Jae Crowder was rising toward the top of the rankings. Still, assuming Cracked Sidewalks and MU Scoop both have about 17.99 million unique visitors a month (just a guess, but I’m sure it must be accurate ;-) ), that would mean over half of the top 10 sports sites have had good coverage of the Value Add system that started here. Here is the rundown of the top 10 sites.

(9-10 tied) Cracked Sidewalks and MU Scoop – I believe about 17.99 million visitors a month J - and many articles over the years and lively discussions to let me vet the system before it went national.

8. Fox Sports 18 million – Reid Forgrave wrote the great story yesterday that has produced 1,100 Facebook Shares so far

7. SB Nation 19 million – no Value Add coverage

6. NBC Sports 19.5 million – great reporter Rob Dauster did a follow-up this morning, and did one of the key stories when Crowder was enroute to being the No. 2 player, in which he took note of my surprise ranking of a little sophomore guard  named Shabazz Napier who was ranked No. 11 already by Value Add.

5. Sports Illustrated 20 million – The stat guru Luke Winn gave the ultimate boost to Value Add with the first big piece, which ultimately led to many a meeting and phone call with NBA team officials. It came with a price – a Badger was No. 1 in my offensive rankings when he contacted me.

4. CBS Sports 30 million – I believe they had tweeted out some Value Add updates, but can’t find them to prove it.

3. Bleacher Report 40 million – no Value Add coverage

2. ESPN 80 million – Eamonn Brennan was very complementary, and also noted my projection on a rising sophomore Otto Porter – who I had projected jumping from relatively unknown to the top player in the Big East, which he did.

1.       Yahoo Sports 125 million – no Value Add coverage

(ratings on website traffic can be found here , except for my Cracked Sidewalks and MU Scoop estimates) 

Anyway, thanks all for reading over the years – even those most critical helped me test these ratings out and make adjustments before they went to these national sites.

1st Losing Season Since 1999 Possible Under Projection

Marquette projects to go 15-17 overall, 6-12 in the Big East, and be eliminated in the first round of the CIT (that's the tournament below the NIT, but better than the CBI). This would give MU its first losing season since Mike Deane went 14-15 in 1999 after fMU has six straight 20-win seasons.

If that happens, MU fans should remember the losing season before that - when many fans booed a young MU team that went 11-18 in 1991 in another coach's first season (Kevin O'Neill). That team went onto go to the Sweet 16 once the freshman had become seniors.

This may come as a shock to many of our fans - as we were all thankfully spoiled as one of less than a half dozen teams to go to the Sweet 16 three years in a row. I ran into a number of Marquette fans in the lobby of my hotel the morning after MU was eliminated from the Big East tournament, and was stunned the main discussion was who MU would host in the first round of the NIT. It was very evident to me that MU was NOT good enough to make the 32-team NIT field, and this year could be even worse.

The fact is I expect MU to exceed the projected value with a realistic shot at the NIT and an outside shot at the NCAA.

Going purely be the Value Add of the top five players for MU and all of the opponents and adjusting for home court, MU has five narrow wins and five narrow losses in a 15-17 season - meaning that if Steve Taylor is fully recovered, John Dawson plays anywhere close to how he played in three great performances last year, and Derrick Wilson can just add marginal offense to his great defense, MU's Value Add would improve enough to turn those five close losses into wins to go 20-13 including an NIT bid.

I believe an NCAA bid is really a reach this year even with players stepping up, but I thought 2010 would be even tougher and Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler went to new heights to get what of our most stunning bids - so let's hope for more of the same. Hopefully Buzz's mind was just elsewhere last year, and Wojo is taking the kids to new heights on the court. Here is how the season plays out by pure Value Add:

START 3-1
If MU somehow wins in Ohio State or even stays within single digits, then Wojo has this team ready to far exceed the Value Add projections. More likely that is a bad loss, while Tennessee Martin, Nebraska Omaha and the country's only remaining independent (NJIT) are easy wins to make MU 3-1.

OLD SPICE IN ORLANDO 1-2
It looks very likely that Marquette goes 1-2 over the Thanksgiving weekend. MU has a slight edge over Georgia Tech in the opener, so a win there would be important. MU likely is 1-1 after two games, because a win over Georgia Tech would likely lead to getting beaten badly by Michigan State the next night, while a loss to Georgia Tech likely gives MU an easy win over Rider the next night to even it up.

The big game will likely be on Sunday. MU projects a little lower than potential opponents Rhode Island, Santa Clara and Tennessee, and if some combination of Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are playing above projections, then MU will have it's first realistic chance for a big win away from home to leave the tournament 2-1. If MU wins the first two games, then the likely opponent is Kansas, which projects No. 1 in Value Add and would be very tough ask. So a 2-1 trip from Orlando - however we get it - could be a huge breakthrough pointing to a much better than projected season.

Rest of non-conference 4-1

An upset of Wisconsin would be very unlikely December 6, so a 4-4 mark would be "par" coming out of the rivalry game. The Bradley Center would give MU a slight edge against Arizona State, so that is a huge must-win - and could let MU get to the end of non-conference play with an 8-4 mark, since MU's easiest three opponents (Alabama A&M, North Dakota and Morgan State) close out the calendar year.

Conference regular season 6-12, one win in tourney

If MU is a few points better than projections, then they can flip projected narrow losses at Seton Hall and at home against Butler, Providence and St. John's to go 10-8 in Big East play.

With a 6-12 mark, MU would project to be the 8-seed in the Big East tournament and potentially beat projected 9-seed Creighton before losing to top-seeded Villanova.

Potential bids

If MU comes out of the Big East tournament with a 15-16 record, they would still merit a bid from the CIT tournament as their last selection - under the hypothetical scenario that each team's Value Add is right, the NCAA takes the best players they can after their automatic bids, the NIT does the same, then the CIT picks the next 16 and the CBI takes the final 16. Obviously all of this is unrealistic, but for arguments sake,:

a. that would leave MU facing the overall No. 1 seed in the CIT tournament - Oklahoma State - and MU would be projected to lose that game and finish 15-17

b. ironically if MU finished just lower, they would hypothetically be the best team in the CBI and have a better chance to add at least a couple of wins and have a winning record.

c. if Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are joining the others in contributing to turn those five close losses into projected wins, then MU could enter the Big East tournament 10-8, 19-11 and be in solid shape for an NIT bid with an outside shot at the NCAA. The only problem with that scenario is that it likely gets MU out of the opening round Big East tournament games, meaning they might have to beat a 3-seed (Providence) to claim a crucial 20th win for the resume to wrap up an NIT bid or even make the case for the NCAA.

The game-by-game schedule below gives MU a "W" for a likely win, a "W?" for a narrow win under the Value Add projections for each player, a (W) for a possible game against Rider that MU would play if they do not get Michigan State in the 2nd round in Orlando.

The same is true of all variations of "L," as these project as losses but the five "L?" are the key narrow loss projections that would be most likely to flip to wins if MU is a little better than projections.

For each team, we indicate the Value Add of their top five players as well as their overall team, their conference, and their likely post season bid if they also match their projections and all their opponents do the same.

We do not want these projections to be correct - but we want to establish "par" early so we can determine if Marquette is exceeding expectations as the games play out.

Res	Date	Ven	Rnk	Team	Top5 VA	Conf	Tot VA	Tourney	Seed
15-17	Non-Conf		88	Marquette	12.51	BE	14.46	CIT	4-seed
W	11/14/2014		247	Tennessee Martin	3.05	OVC	3.05	no bid
L	11/18/2014	at	29	Ohio St.	21.47	B10	28.74	NCAA	8-seed
W	11/22/2014		197	Nebraska Omaha	4.6	Sum	4.6	no bid
W	11/24/2014		182	NJIT	5.15	ind	5.15	no bid
	Old Spice			in Orlando
W?	11/27/2014	vs	114	Georgia Tech	9.51	ACC	9.61	no bid
L	11/28/2014	vs	36	Michigan St.	19.2	B10	22.98	NCAA	9-seed
(W)	11/28/2014	vs	175	Rider	5.34	MAAC	5.34	no bid
(L)	11/30/2014		1	Kansas	34.44	B12	60.6	NCAA	1-seed
(L?)	11/30/2014		76	Rhode Island	13.45	A10	14.43	CIT	2-seed
(L?)	11/30/2014	vs	67	Santa Clara	14.48	WCC	14.9	NIT	4-seed
L?	11/30/2014		62	Tennessee	15.28	SEC	18.46	NIT	3-seed
	Non-Conf
L	12/6/2014		7	Wisconsin	31.15	B10	34.77	NCAA	2-seed
W?	12/16/2014		72	Arizona St.	13.85	P12	17.27	CIT	1-seed
W	12/19/2014		342	Alabama A&M	0.16	SWAC	0.16	no bid
W	12/22/2014		345	North Dakota	0.02	BSky	0.02	no bid
W	12/28/2014		290	Morgan St.	1.71	MEAC	1.71	no bid
	BE Season 6-12
L	1/1/2015	at	50	Butler	17.46	BE	18.68	NCAA	12-playin
L?	1/1/2015		50	Butler	17.46	BE	18.68	NCAA	12-playin
W?	1/1/2015	at	123	Creighton	8.84	BE	11.17	no bid
W	1/1/2015		123	Creighton	8.84	BE	11.17	no bid
W	1/1/2015	at	195	DePaul	4.6	BE	6.07	no bid
W	1/1/2015		195	DePaul	4.6	BE	6.07	no bid
L	1/1/2015	at	31	Georgetown	20.84	BE	28.81	NCAA	8-seed
L	1/1/2015		31	Georgetown	20.84	BE	28.81	NCAA	8-seed
L	1/1/2015	at	35	Providence	19.31	BE	22.68	NCAA	9-seed
L?	1/1/2015		35	Providence	19.31	BE	22.68	NCAA	9-seed
L?	1/1/2015	at	84	Seton Hall	12.78	BE	15.44	CIT	4-seed
W?	1/1/2015		84	Seton Hall	12.78	BE	15.44	CIT	4-seed
L	1/1/2015	at	45	St. John's	18.33	BE	19.14	NCAA	12-seed
L?	1/1/2015		45	St. John's	18.33	BE	19.14	NCAA	12-seed
L	1/1/2015	at	13	Villanova	26.56	BE	31.26	NCAA	4-seed
L	1/1/2015		13	Villanova	26.56	BE	31.26	NCAA	4-seed
L	1/1/2015	at	63	Xavier	15.23	BE	21.78	NIT	3-seed
W?	1/1/2015		63	Xavier	15.23	BE	21.78	NIT	3-seed
	BE Tourney
W	3/11/2015	9	123	Creighton (9-seed)	8.84	BE	11.17	no bid
L	3/12/2015	1	13	Villanova (1-seed)	26.56	BE	31.26	NCAA	4-seed
	CIT Tourney
L	3/17/2015		68	Oklahoma St.	14.41	B12	16.01	CIT	1-seed

Big East Player Projections Updated with Duane Wilson & Other Red Shirts

The Value Add Scholarship Table (review or edit google sheet here) continues to be built, with the addition of key Red Shirt freshman like Duane Wilson. I am posting the updated Big East players here, and a second post will give the projected result of every MU game, to follow-up on the discussion from my recent post (see it here, sorry I checked out on business prior to the discussion and did not see the responses until today).

A couple of notes on our players in response to questions:

1. Some questioned how some of our guys can have 0.00 value, and please note that a 0.00 Value Add means you are not better than a good bench player (8th or 9th man) on a major conference team. Those players have value, they just are not better than the typical replacement player who would come off the bench for them.

2. Why wasn't Duane Wilson listed in the previous post since he certainly adds value? I have to keep Value Add apples-to-apples, and since I did not have a good list of red shirt freshmen from last season, I couldn't simply add Wilson for Marquette until I was able to put together a comprehensive lists for all teams in the country.

3. How could the John Dawson we saw DOMINATE Georgetown have a 0.00 Value Add? Dawson not only won the Georgetown game for MU, but you could argue we would have lost to DePaul at the end of February without him, and he gave MU almost enough to upset Providence in March.Value Add is just a baseline to start a discussion, and if we saw an opposing player with a very low offensive rating of 84 who had very few steals on defense he would be nowhere near having value and so I can't subjectively give a player I've watch more like Dawson a higher rating, even though I have faith in him.

4 Can Marquette exceed these ratings? Definitely - we have seen enough of Steve Taylor's post game to know that if he is finally healthy he should be much better than a 0.10 Value Add, and as good as Derrick Wilson's defense is he can also have value if the 25,000 shots he took in the offseason makes him just an average offensive player - so the potential for both of them as well as Luke Fischer performing well above their projections could create a nice team around Deonte Burton and Matt Carlino and other likely contributors.

Here are the projections for all Big East players.

2015	Name	2015 Value	Rnk	Class	Ht	NBA	%	2016	Value	Rnk	2014	Value
MU	Anderson, Juan	1.30	797	4 Sr	6'6"			Grad			MU	1.1
MU	Burton, Deonte	3.36	333	2 So	6'4"	SG	36%	MU	4.4	184	MU	1.66
MU	Carlino, Matt	3.07	384	4 Sr	6'2"			Grad			BYU	2.6
MU	Cohen, Sandy	1.13	859	1 Fr	6'5"			MU	2.28	430	Prep	NA
MU	Dawson, John	0.00		2 So	6'2"			MU	0		MU	0
MU	Fischer, Luke	0.72	1103	2 So	6'11"			MU	0.94	830	Ind	0.36
MU	Gardner, Davante	Grad		5 Gone	6'8"			Grad			MU	4.75
MU	Johnson, JaJuan	2.98	405	2 So	6'5"	SG	30%	MU	2.98	905	MU	0.3
MU	Mayo, Todd	Draft		4 Sr	6'3"			Grad			MU	1.82
MU	Otule, Chris	Grad		5 Gone	6'11"			Grad			MU	0.41
MU	Taylor, Steve	0.10	1939	3 Jr	6'7"			MU	0.12		MU	0.08
MU	Thomas, Jake	Grad		5 Gone	6'3"			Grad			MU	0.77
MU	Wilson, Derrick	0.00		4 Sr	6'1"			Grad			MU	0
MU	Wilson, Duane	1.80	648	1 Fr	6'2"			2 So	3.7		MU	RS
MU	Wilson, Jamil	Grad		5 Gone	6'7"			Grad			MU	1.47
MU	zzTeam total = 14.46	Top 5 = 12.51	88
Butl	Aldridge, Jackson	0		4 Sr	6'0			Grad			Butl	0
Butl	Barlow, Alex	3.71	293	4 Sr	5'11"			Grad			Butl	3.15
Butl	Brown, Elijah	Trans		2 So	6'4"			Available	0		Butl	0
Butl	Chrabascz, Andrew	4.18	251	2 So	6'7"			Butl	5.47	124	Butl	2.07
Butl	Davis, Jackson	0.2	1831	1 Fr	6'8"			Butl	0.4		Prep	NA
Butl	Dunham, Kellen	5.06	149	3 Jr	6'6"	SG	71%	Butl	5.06	724	Butl	0.77
Butl	Etherington, Austin	0		3 Jr	6'6"			Butl	0		Ind	0
Butl	Jones, Roosevelt	2.78	438	3 Jr	6'4"						2013	2.12
Butl	Marshall, Khyle	Grad		5 Gone	6'6"			Grad			Butl	1.15
Butl	Martin, Kelan	0.72	1102	1 Fr	6'5"			Butl	1.45	608	Prep	NA
Butl	Wideman, Tyler	0.3	1550	1 Fr	6'6"			Butl	0.61		Prep	NA
Butl	Woods, Kameron	1.73	663	4 Sr	6'9"			Grad			Butl	1.47
Butl	zzTeam total = 18.68	Top 5 = 17.46	50
Crei	Artino, Will	2.03	580	4 Sr	6'11"			Grad			Crei	1.72
Crei	Brooks, Devin	2.6	462	4 Sr	6'2"	PG	8%	Grad			Crei	2.2
Crei	Chatman, Austin	2.03	581	4 Sr	6'0			Grad			Crei	1.72
Crei	Dingman, Avery	0.44	1404	4 Sr	6'6"			Grad			Crei	0.38
Crei	Gibbs, Grant	Grad		5 Gone	6'5"			Grad			Crei	1.38
Crei	Gilmore, Leon	0.77	1072	1 Fr	6'7"			Crei	1.56	578	Prep	NA
Crei	Harrell, Ronnie	1.26	806	1 Fr	6'8"			Crei	2.55	387	Prep	NA
Crei	Henger, Toby	0.3	1558	1 Fr							Crei	RS
Crei	Kreklow, Ricky	0.32	1518	4 Sr	6'6"			Grad			Cal	0.28
Crei	Manigat, Jahenns	Grad		5 Gone	6'1"			Grad			Crei	3.01
Crei	McDermott, Doug	Grad		5 Gone	6'8"			Grad			Crei	9.4
Crei	Milliken, James	0.5	1295	3 Jr							JUCO
Crei	Wragge, Ethan	Grad		5 Gone	6'7"			Grad			Crei	3.16
Crei	Zierden, Isaiah	0.92	989	2 So	6'2"			Crei	1.21	714	Crei	0.46
Crei	zzTeam total = 11.17	Top 5 = 8.84	123
DeP	Crockett, Jamee	0		4 Sr	6'4"			Grad			DeP	0
DeP	Curington, RJ	0.12	1917	2 So	6'4"			DeP	0.15		DeP	0.06
DeP	Doby, Raymond	0.35	1489	1 Fr	6'7"			DeP	0.71	944	Prep	NA
DeP	Garrett, Billy	1.7	672	2 So	6'5"			DeP	2.23	442	DeP	0.84
DeP	Hamilton, Tommy	0		2 So	6'10"			DeP	0		DeP	0
DeP	Henry, Myke	0.88	1009	3 Jr	6'6"			DeP	1.04	787	2013Ill	0.67
DeP	Marcius, Sandi	Grad		5 Gone	6'10"			Grad			DeP	0.33
DeP	Marrero, DeJuan	0		2 So	6'5"			DeP	0		DeP	0
DeP	McDonald, Durrell	0.42	1421	3 Jr	6'1"			DeP	0.5		DeP	0.32
DeP	McKinney, Charles	0.22	1815	4 Sr	6'3"			Grad			DeP	0.19
DeP	Melvin, Cleveland	Grad		5 Gone	6'8"			Grad			DeP	1.61
DeP	Robinson, Forrest	0.38	1468	4 Sr	6'10"			Grad			DeP	0.33
DeP	Ryckbosch, Peter	0		3 Jr	6'9"			DeP	0		DeP	0
DeP	Sequele, Greg	0.1	1944	4 Sr	6'9"			Grad			DeP	0.09
DeP	Simpson, Aaron	1.1	876	3 Jr							JUCO
DeP	Stimage, Rashaun	0.5	1296	3 Jr	6'8"			DeP	0.59		JUCO	NA
DeP	Wood, Darrick	0.3	1564	1 Fr	6'4"			DeP	0.61		Prep	NA
DeP	Young, Brandon	Grad		5 Gone	6'4"			Grad			DeP	1.31
DeP	zzTeam total = 6.07	Top 5 = 4.6	197
Gtown	Ayegba, Moses	Grad		5 Gone	6'9"			Grad			Gtown	0.25
Gtown	Cameron, Reggie	2.81	431	2 So	6'7"	PF	26%	Gtown	2.81		Gtown	0.12
Gtown	Campbell, Tre	0.85	1023	1 Fr	6'1"			Gtown	1.72	544	Prep	NA
Gtown	Copeland, Isaac	4.3	240	1 Fr	6'9"			Gtown	6.8	68	Prep	NA
Gtown	Derrickson, Marcus	not yet		Prep	6'7"			Gtown	1.3	677	Prep	NA
Gtown	Govan, Jessie	3	394	1 Fr	6'10"			Available	5.5	393	Prep	NA
Gtown	Hopkins, Mikael	1.72	668	4 Sr	6'9"	PF	4%	Grad			Gtown	1.1
Gtown	Lubick, Nate	Grad		5 Gone	6'8"			Grad			Gtown	1.63
Gtown	Mourning, Trey	0.3	1579	1 Fr	6'9"			Gtown	0.61		Prep	NA
Gtown	Peak, LJ	1.42	756	1 Fr	6'4"			Gtown	2.87	329	Prep	NA
Gtown	Rivera, D'Vauntes	8.58	13	3 Jr	6'3"	SG	68%	Gtown	10.13	11	Gtown	6.55
Gtown	Smith, Joshua	2.15	547	4 Sr	6'10"	C	13%	Grad			Gtown	1.44
Gtown	Starks, Markel	Grad		5 Gone	6'2"			Grad			Gtown	2.25
Gtown	Trawick, Jabril	2.08	567	4 Sr	6'5"			Grad			Gtown	1.76
Gtown	White, Paul	1.6	701	1 Fr	6'8"			Gtown	3.23	275	Prep	NA
Gtown	zzTeam total = 28.81	Top 5 = 20.84	32
Prov	Bancroft, Ted	Grad		5 Gone	6'6"			Grad			Prov	0.02
Prov	Batts, Kadeem	Grad		5 Gone	6'9"			Grad			Prov	1.38
Prov	Bentil, Ben	1.21	832	1 Fr	6'8"			Prov	2.44	404	Prep	NA
Prov	Bullock, Rodney	0.5	1271	1 Fr							Prov	susp
Prov	Cartwright, Kyron	0.25	1783	1 Fr	5'10"			Prov	0.51		Prep	NA
Prov	Chukwu, Paschal	1.49	731	1 Fr	7'2"			Prov	3.01	309	Prep	NA
Prov	Cotton, Bryce	Grad		5 Gone	6'1"			Grad			Prov	6.52
Prov	Desrosiers, Carson	2.3	515	4 Sr	7'0			Grad			Prov	1.95
Prov	Dunn, Kris	5.05	151	3 Jr	6' 3"	PG	71%	Prov	5.05		Prov	inj
Prov	Fortune, Josh	Trans		3 Jr	6'5"			Available	0.57		Prov	0.44
Prov	Harris, Tyler	4.95	163	3 Jr	6'9"	SF	69%	Prov	4.95	558	Prov	1.06
Prov	Henton, LaDontae	5.52	103	4 Sr	6'6"			Grad			Prov	4.68
Prov	Jackson, William	not yet		Prep	6'4"			Georgia	1.04	788	Prep	NA
Prov	Lindsey, Jalen	1.41	761	1 Fr	6'6"			Prov	2.85	333	Prep	NA
Prov	Lomomba, Junior	0		2 So	6'5"						2013CleSt	0
Prov	Owens, Alex	not yet		Prep	6'8"			Prov	1.03	793	Prep	NA
Prov	zzTeam total = 22.68	Top 5 = 19.31	35
SH	Ajou, Chier	0		1 Fr							2013NW	rs
SH	Anthony, Rashad	0		1 Fr							SH	rs
SH	Auda, Patrik	1.84	640	4 Sr	6'9"			Grad			SH	1.56
SH	Carrington, Khadeen	0.84	1025	1 Fr	6'3"			SH	1.7	547	Prep	NA
SH	Delgado, Angel	1.57	714	1 Fr	6'8"			SH	3.17	290	Prep	NA
SH	Edwin, Fuquan	Grad		5 Gone	6'6"			Grad			SH	2.49
SH	Geramipoor, Aaron	Grad		5 Gone	6'11"			Grad			SH	0.45
SH	Gibbs, Sterling	2.83	429	3 Jr	6'2"			SH	3.33	267	SH	2.16
SH	Karlis, Haralds	0		4 Sr	6'6"			Grad			SH	0
SH	Maayan, Tom	0		3 Jr	6'2"			SH	0		SH	0
SH	Manga, Stephane	0		4 Sr	6'6"			Grad			SH	0
SH	Mobley, Brandon	0.46	1388	4 Sr	6'9"			Grad			SH	0.39
SH	Nzei, Michael	0.4	1439	1 Fr	6'7"			SH	0.81	894	Prep	NA
SH	Oleka, Obinna	0.3	1678	1 Fr	6'8"			SH	0.61		Prep	NA
SH	Oliver, Brian	Grad		5 Gone	6'7"			Grad			SH	0.93
SH	Rodriguez, Desi	0.6	1191	1 Fr	6'5"			SH	1.21	712	Prep	NA
SH	Sanogo, Ismael	0.4	1440	1 Fr	6'6"			SH	0.81	893	Prep	NA
SH	Sina, Jaren	0.5	1272	2 So	6'2"			SH	0.66	978	SH	0.25
SH	Teague, Gene	Grad		5 Gone	6'9"			Grad			SH	2.73
SH	Whitehead, Isaiah	5.7	83	1 Fr	6'4"			SH	7.5	47	Prep	NA
SH	zzTeam total = 15.44	Top 5 = 12.78	84
StJ	Achiuwa, God'sgift	Grad		5 Gone	6'8"			Grad			StJ	0.75
StJ	Alblegovic, Amar	0		1 Fr							Prep
StJ	Branch, Jamal	0.07	1995	4 Sr	6'3"			Grad			StJ	0.06
StJ	DelaRosa, Adonis	0.15	1880	1 Fr	6'11"			StJ	0.3		Prep	NA
StJ	Greene, Phil	0.59	1207	4 Sr	6'2"			Grad			StJ	0.5
StJ	Harrison, D'Angelo	5.5	109	4 Sr	6'4"			Grad			StJ	4.66
StJ	Jordan, Rysheed	3.38	330	2 So	6'4"	PG	38%	StJ	3.38		StJ	0.1
StJ	Obekpa, Chris	5.25	132	3 Jr	6'9"	PF/C	75%	StJ	5.25	234	StJ	2.47
StJ	Pointer, Sir'Dominic	2.5	478	4 Sr	6'5"			Grad			StJ	2.12
StJ	Sampson, JaKarr	Draft		3 Jr	6'9"			Nba			StJ	1.29
StJ	Sanchez, Orlando	Grad		5 Gone	6'9"			Grad			StJ	2.73
StJ	Thomas, Keith	1.7	674	3 Jr							JUCO
StJ	zzTeam total = 19.14	Top 5 = 18.33	46
Vill	Arcidiacono, Ryan	4.84	181	3 Jr	6'3"	PG	67%	Vill	4.84	223	Vill	2.55
Vill	Barefield, Sedrick	not yet		Prep	6'2"			SMU	1.12	761	Prep	NA
Vill	Bell, James	Grad		5 Gone	6'6"			Grad			Vill	5.21
Vill	Booth, Phil	1.25	813	1 Fr	6'3"			Vill	2.53	390	Prep	NA
Vill	Bridges, Mikal	1.15	851	1 Fr	6'6"			Vill	2.32	425	Prep	NA
Vill	Chennault, Tony	Grad		5 Gone	6'2"			Grad			Vill	1.21
Vill	Ennis, Dylan	0.6	1195	3 Jr	6'2"			Vill	0.7	946	Vill	0.46
Vill	Hart, Josh	5.84	74	2 So	6'5"	SG	30%	Vill	7.66	43	Vill	3.34
Vill	Hilliard, Darrun	5.05	152	4 Sr	6'6"			Grad			Vill	4.28
Vill	Jenkins, Kris	1.7	673	2 So	6'6"			Vill	2.23	441	Vill	0.84
Vill	Ochefu, Daniel	4.91	168	3 Jr	6'11"	C	68%	Vill	4.91	243	Vill	2.38
Vill	Pinkston, JayVaughn	5.92	68	4 Sr	6'7"	PF	7%	Grad			Vill	5.02
Vill	zzTeam total = 31.26	Top 5 = 26.56	13
Xav	Abell, Remy	1.9	623	3 Jr	6'4"			Xav	2.24	440	2013Ind	1.45
Xav	Austin, Larry	0.94	975	1 Fr	6'1"			Xav	1.9	504	Prep	NA
Xav	Bluiett, Trevon	3.2	357	1 Fr	6'5"			Xav	5.7	113	Prep	NA
Xav	Christon, Semaj	Draft		3 Jr	6'3"			Nba			Xav	2.9
Xav	Davis, Dee	1.15	855	4 Sr	6'0			Grad			Xav	0.98
Xav	Davis, Myles	0.6	1194	2 So	6'2"			Xav	0.78	914	Xav	0.29
Xav	Farr, James	3.05	389	3 Jr	6'9"			Xav	3.6	247	Xav	2.33
Xav	London, Makinde	1.27	805	1 Fr	6'8"			Xav	2.57	385	Prep	NA
Xav	Macura, JP	1.06	903	1 Fr	6'4"			Xav	2.14	463	Prep	NA
Xav	O'Mara, Sean	0.73	1098	1 Fr	6'9"			Xav	1.47	601	Prep	NA
Xav	Philmore, Isaiah	Grad		5 Gone	6'8"			Grad			Xav	1.18
Xav	Randolph, Brandon	0		2 So	6'1"			Xav	0		Xav	0
Xav	Reynolds, Jalen	2.15	546	2 So	6'9"			Xav	2.81	337	Xav	1.06
Xav	Stainbrook, Matt	4.93	167	4 Sr	6'10"			Grad			Xav	4.18
Xav	Sumner, Edmond	0.8	1057	1 Fr	6'3"			Xav	1.62	566	Prep	NA
Xav	zzTeam total = 21.78	Top 5 = 15.23	63

Value Add projects MU 93rd; Burton 36% chance at NBA

I have put the entire database of Value Add projections into a Google Doc that you can open and even edit by clicking here. The database includes 4250 players listed alphabetically by team and then last name, and you can enter edits for missed players, etc.

Focusing purely on the Value Add's in the Big East, the picture would appear pretty bleak. Marquette had the 101st best Value Add in the country last year and 7th best in the conference. The projections give Marquette the 93rd best Value Add this season (ahead of only DePaul) and Creighton) and then 94th next season (ahead of St. John's, DePaul and Creighton). One note is that Creighton always ends up being projected too low for some reason.

Before I throw up a white flag I should note that the Value Add projections are just an estimate based on the average improvement each player has between seasons, and in fact individual improvement varies wildly when you are talking about college kids. From a purely statistical perspective, things looked every bit as bad heading into 2010, and suddenly Marquette was in the tournament.

The other good news is the players considering Marquette - for example, a signing of Diamond Stone alone would propel Marquette to 5th in the Big East and 60th in the country for 2016.

The other nice news is that the database now includes a percent chance of each player making the NBA, and Deonte Burton is now up to a 36% chance, so hopefully MU can keep the pipeline going. Here is the team table for Big East members:

Team	Conf	2014	Rnk	2015	Rnk	2016	Rnk
Villanova	BE	25.98	22	31.27	16	24.17	25
Georgetown	BE	15.82	69	25.82	28	25.66	20
Providence	BE	17.50	54	22.68	40	11.48	71
Xavier	BE	14.63	81	21.78	44	24.83	23
St. John's	BE	15.15	76	19.14	51	4.39
Butler	BE	9.28	147	18.68	55	9.12	86
Seton Hall	BE	11.40	110	14.74	78	19.80	38
Marquette	BE	12.36	101	12.66	93	8.54	94
Creighton	BE	24.47	27	11.18	108	5.31	143
DePaul	BE	5.59		6.08		5.82	133

Gtown, Xavier and Seton Hall Freshmen Dominant; Carlino Leads MU Newcomers

Freshman from Seton Hall, Xavier and Georgetown are among the most valuable in the country - with each class likely to improve their team's scoring margin by 8 points or more per game. Marquette's Sandy Cohen projects as a strong contributor, and if he was combined with Luke Fischer, Duane Wilson and Matt Carlino then MU's "newcomers" would project to be almost as valuable as the big three classes.

Even before Todd Mayo left, Value Add projected sophomore Deonte Burton (3.35 projected Value Add) and senior transfer Carlino (3.10) to easily be Marquette's best two players this season.

The table of all Big East freshman appears at the end of this post.

Value Add, the system that measures the overall impact each player has on his team's scoring margin on an average night, projects that Isaiah Whitehead will be the most valuable freshman in the league by increasing Seton Hall's scoring margin by 5.00 points per game. Five other freshman combine with Whitehead to give their freshman class an overall rating of 8.71 for the best mark in the conference.

Isaac Copeland projects as the second best Big East freshman with a projected Value Add of 4.30, and the four other freshman Hoyas also rank Georgetown in second as a team - just behind Seton Hall at 8.47.

Trevon Bluiett is the third best freshman at 3.20, and five other freshman combine to give Xavier a very strong 8.00.

None of the other seven Big East freshman classes are anywhere close, with a solid trio at Providence giving the Friars a fourth best 4.36, but nowhere near the three dominant leaders.

The class after a coach leaves is normally decimated, but Sandy Cohen gives Marquette one freshman likely to contribute the first year with a 1.13 Value Add. Historically 3-star and better recruits make at least a small contribution (about 0.3 for the average 3-star). While one player cannot make a class, other players who will get on the court for the first time this season make for what would be a very solid class if they were all freshman.

Matt Carlino will take the court immediately after transferring from BYU. An exhaustive study of the entire Value Add database from Dwyane Wade's last season through last year shows that a player improves an average of 18% between his junior and senior season. That would point to a very strong Value Add of 3.1 for Carlino this season. Here is the chart of the average improvement from class to class based on 2629 players in the Value Add database who played all four seasons at the same school.

Study of 2629 players	Ave Value Add	Projected improvement
Freshman	0.67	102%
Sophomore	1.35	31%
Junior	1.76	18%
Senior	2.09	0%

So the average freshman more than doubles his value before his sophomore season, but the improvement is much smaller during the next two offseasons.

Duane Wilson missed all of last season with an injury, but was projected to have a 1.6 Value Add out of high school, and Luke Fischer will join after the first semester and projected to have a 1.2 Value Add. If we cheat and include these three along with Cohen, we get a Marquette class just one point behind the three big freshman classes with a 7.03 Value Add.

Obviously others could do the same. Darrick Wood was supposed to have a 1.1 Value Add when he committed to St. John's in 2012, and now should be much better as he comes to DePaul with two JUCO seasons under his belt. Here are all the freshman with at least three stars, and how many points they are expected to improve their team on an average night.

Freshman	Ht	Team	Proj Value add
Kelan Martin	6'5"	Butler	0.72
Tyler Wideman	6'6"	Butler	0.30
Jackson Davis	6'8"	Butler	0.20
			1.22
Ronnie Harrell	6'8"	Creighton	1.26
Leon Gilmore	6'7"	Creighton	0.77
			2.03
Raymond Doby	6'7"	DePaul	0.35
Rashaun Stimage	6'8"	DePaul	0.30
			0.65
Isaac Copeland	6'9"	Georgetown	4.30
Paul White	6'8"	Georgetown	1.60
L.J. Peak	6'4"	Georgetown	1.42
Tre Campbell	6'1"	Georgetown	0.85
Trey Mourning	6'9"	Georgetown	0.30
			8.47
Matt Carlino (Sr.-Tran)	6'2"	Marquette	3.10
Sandy Cohen	6'5"	Marquette	1.13
Duane Wilson (2013-RS)	6'3"	Marquette	1.60
Luke Fischer (2013-RS-Sem)	6'10"	Marquette	1.20
			7.03
Paschal Chukwu	7'2"	Providence	1.49
Jalen Lindsey	6'6"	Providence	1.41
Ben Bentil	6'8"	Providence	1.21
Kyron Cartwright	5'10"	Providence	0.25
			4.36
Isaiah Whitehead	6'4"	Seton Hall	5.00
Angel Delgado	6'8"	Seton Hall	1.57
Khadeen Carrington	6'3"	Seton Hall	0.84
Desi Rodriguez	6'5"	Seton Hall	0.60
Ismael Sanogo	6'6"	Seton Hall	0.40
Obinna Oleka	6'8"	Seton Hall	0.30
			8.71
Adonis DelaRosa	6'11"	St. John's	0.15
			0.15
Phil Booth	6'3"	Villanova	1.25
Mikal Bridges	6'6"	Villanova	1.15
			2.40
Trevon Bluiett	6'5"	Xavier	3.20
Makinde London	6'8"	Xavier	1.27
J.P. Macura	6'4"	Xavier	1.06
Larry Austin	6'1"	Xavier	0.94
Edmond Sumner	6'3"	Xavier	0.80
Sean O'Mara	6'9"	Xavier	0.73
			8.00

Hold the Mayo and Pass the Scrambled Questions

Once again some late breaking news has sent us to the podmobile to get a podcast fired up and out to you. This time it is the unexpected but not totally surprising news that Todd Mayo is no longer with the Marquette basketball team. It is unexpected from a timing standpoint, but not unsurprising given Todd's history at MU. We choose not to spend too much time on this development and instead pivot to your questions to us in our favorite segment #scrambledquestions. We did get a lot of Mayo questions of course, but thankfully a lot of them were forward looking so we tackled the game of "what does MU do now". Ultimately we plowed through at least a half dozen of your questions and we can only hope we answered them sufficiently. Enjoy the episode and here's to hoping the emergency podsignal will stay switched off for the next couple of months. Download this episode (right click and save)