Projections for 2016 NCAA Includes Ellenson-led MU

MUs best recruit in decades projects to land MU back in the NCAA tournament in 2016. Henry Ellenson steps on the court projected to be the 189^th best Value Add player in the country even as a freshman. A look at MU’s projected roster for 2016 indicates three more players projected to be among the top 10% in the country – enough to propel MU to fourth in the Big East behind Georgetown, Xavier and Villanova (see updated google doc here).

The full database is at www.valueaddbasketball.com, but it is not updated currently. The ceiling for MU is higher due to players whose projections were held down by injuries or a lack of playing time:

2016 MU Value Add Projections

Burton, Deonte: 4.4 (268^th of 4000 players)

Cheatham, Haanif: 1.41 (717^th)

Cohen, Sandy: 2.28 (527^th)

Dawson, John: 0.00 (with more PT should move up)

Ellenson, Henry: 4.9 (189^th, or top 5%)

Ellenson, Wally: 0.00 (based on dunking at MU Madness could be better)

Fischer, Luke: 0.94 (partial season at Indiana holds him down)

Heldt, Matt: 0.30 (some ratings have higher)

Johnson, JaJuan: 2.98 (402^nd misses top 10% by 2 spots)

Levin, Gabe: 1.15 (830^th)

Taylor, Steve: 0.12 (season-long injury held projection down)

Wilson, Duane: 3.7 (313^th)

The Big East does not project to have any top five seeds in 2016, but seven of the ten teams project to either make the tournament or be one of the next teams out.

Big East 2016 Projections 

(4 teams in, 3 more just miss on bubble)

Georgetown, BE, 6-seed

Xavier, BE, 9-seed

Villanova, BE, 9-seed

Marquette, BE, 11-seed

St. John's, BE, 4th bubble (out of NCAA)

Providence, BE, 5th bubble (out of NCAA)

Seton Hall, BE, 10th bubble (out of NCAA)

Butler, BE, out

Creighton, BE, out

DePaul, BE, out

The following are other projected seeds and next 10 teams out.

Rest of the NCAA field and 1^st Ten Out

Starting with projected 1-seeds

Arizona, p12, 1-seed

Duke, ACC, 1-seed

Kansas, b12, 1-seed

Kentucky, sec, 1-seed

Connecticut, Amer, 2-seed

Florida, Amer, 2-seed

Louisville, ACC, 2-seed

North Carolina, ACC, 2-seed

Memphis, Amer, 3-seed

Michigan St., b10, 3-seed

Syracuse, ACC, 3-seed

Virginia, ACC, 3-seed

Baylor, B12, 4-seed

Indiana, B10, 4-seed

Louisiana St., SEC, 4-seed

UCLA, p12, 4-seed

Florida St., ACC, 5-seed

Maryland, B10, 5-seed

Missouri, SEC, 5-seed

Texas, B12, 5-seed

Michigan, B10, 6-seed

Nevada Las Vegas, mwc, 6-seed

North Carolina St., ACC, 6-seed

ACC, P12, 7-seed

Arkansas, SEC, 7-seed

Oregon, P12, 7-seed

Southern Methodist, Amer, 7-seed

Houston, Amer, 8-seed

Illinois, b10, 8-seed

Kansas St., B12, 8-seed

Ohio St., b10, 8-seed

Miami FL, ACC, 9-seed

Oklahoma, B12, 9-seed

Iowa St., B12, 10-seed

Purdue, B10, 10-seed

San Diego St., mwc, 10-seed

Tulsa, Amer, 10-seed

Cincinnati, Amer, 11-seed

George Washington, A10, 11-seed

Georgia, SEC, 11-seed

Gonzaga, wcc, 11-seed

Southern California, p12, 11-seed

Army, Pat, 12-seed

Georgia St., SB, 12-seed

Northwestern St., Slnd, 12-seed

Wichita St., MVC, 12-seed

Hawaii, BW, 13-seed

Hofstra, CAA, 13-seed

Siena, MAAC, 13-seed

Texas El Paso, CUSA, 13-seed

Belmont, OVC, 14-seed

High Point, BSth, 14-seed

Stony Brook, ae, 14-seed

Wisconsin Green Bay, Horz, 14-seed

Northern Illinois, MAC, 15-seed

Oral Roberts, Sum, 15-seed

Weber St., BSky, 15-seed

Yale, Ivy, 15-seed

Alabama St., SWAC, 16-seed

Chattanooga, sc, 16-seed

Chicago St., WAC, 16-seed

Howard, MEAC, 16-seed

Kennesaw St., ASun, 16-seed

Mount St. Mary's, NEC, 16-seed

Stanford, p12, 1st bubble (out of NCAA)

Nebraska, B10, 2nd bubble (out of NCAA)

Pittsburgh, ACC, 3rd bubble (out of NCAA)

Colorado, P12, 6th bubble (out of NCAA)

Alabama, SEC, 7th bubble (out of NCAA)

Auburn, sec, 8th bubble (out of NCAA)

Mississippi St., SEC, 9th bubble (out of NCAA)