History Suggests Opponents’ Shooting Drops 10% when Fischer Arrives Dec. 16

Marquette opponents are hitting 57.1% of their two-pointers, but the arrival of shot-blocker Luke Fischer December 16 will drop that figure by 10% if history holds. Fischer blocked 8.8% of opponents’ two-pointers last season at Indiana, and when Marquette has had at least one player average blocking more than 4% of opponents’ two-pointers they have held opponents to 48% or less every season.

Here is the breakdown of opponents' 2-point percentage in relation to MU's top shot-blocker each season:

• Top shot-blocker below 4% since 2003 (4 times) – every season at least 49.3% allowed for average of 51.7% opponents' 2-point shots made
• Top shot-blocker above 4% since 2003 (9 seasons) – every season 48% or less for average of 45.7% opponents' field goals made
• When Jim McIlvaine was 1994 National Defensive Player of the Year he blocked 14.4% and MU allowed a record low 36.8% of opponents' 2-point shots to go in

Despite Marquette’s terrible field goal percentage allowed (the 57.1% allowed ranks MU 328^th of 351 defenses), the pressure is so good (force turnovers 25.9% of trips down the court for 20^th best of 351 defenses) that the overall defense is almost exactly average (99.5 points per 100 trips).  That’s only the ninth best defense in the Big East, but if the team can keep turning the ball over and Fischer’s presence at the rim lowers the field goal percentage allowed as has always been the case, Marquette could easily move up to about 6^th in defense in the Big East.

Marquette is battling Seton Hall to have the 6th best offense, so if they finish 6th in both offense and defense they logically would finish around 6th in the conference instead of 9th - where they are currently projected.

This year Deonte Burton has led the team by blocking 3.5% of opponents’ two-point shots. Marquette also lacked a shot-blocker in 2004 (Terry Sanders 3.4%), 2009 (Jimmy Butler 2.5%) and 2010 (Joe Fulce 2.9%), and opponents’ have averaged making 51.7% of their two-points shots in those years.

In the other seasons since the state has been kept at www.kenpom.com, Dwyane Wade, Marcus Jackson, Jamil Lott, Ousmane Barro (twice), Jamil Wilson, or Chris Otule (three times) have averaged blocking more than 4% of all opponents two-pointers, and in those seasons opponents’ have shot 45.7% on two-pointers.

I went back and did the math myself for the historic 1994 season by Jim McIlvaine, the current Marquette TV announcer who was national defensive player of the year that year.

If Luke Fischer improves at all on his 8.8% of shots blocked at Indiana last year, then he will be the greatest shot-blocker Marquette has had since McIlvaine.

Here is the actual table, which I kept at the bottom of this post since the code is impossible to read for MUScoop readers.

Year	2-pt Def	Rank	Blocker	Blk%	4%+?
1994	36.8	1	Jim McIlvaine	14.4	Yes
2003	45.9	76	Dwyane Wade	4.2	Yes
2004	49.3	212	Terry Sanders	3.4	No
2005	44.7	45	Marcus Jackson	5.4	Yes
2006	45.9	87	Jamil Lott	6.5	Yes
2007	45.2	52	Ousmane Barro	4.2	Yes
2008	46.7	98	Ousmane Barro	6.4	Yes
2009	50.3	265	Jimmy Butler	2.5	No
2010	50	263	Joe Fulce	2.9	No
2011	48	179	Chris Otule	8.9	Yes
2012	44.4	48	Jamil Wilson	5.8	Yes
2013	44.9	76	Chris Otule	6.7	Yes
2014	45.7	68	Chris Otule	6.4	Yes
2015	57.1	328	Deonte Burton	3.5	No
2015	?	?	Luke Fischer	8.8	Yes
2003-	51.7		Ave less than 4% Block since 2003	3.1	No
2003-	45.7		Ave more than 4% block since 2003	6.1	Yes