9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid

It looks to me like MU gets an NCAA bid with a 9-9 or better mark. That would likely entail MU being one of only about 33 teams with four wins over teams in the RPI top 50, likely finish in the top 25 in Strength of Schedule, and get credit for being a better team with Luke Fischer than the early season 4-4 without him. The out-of-conference wins away from home against Georgia Tech (top 100) and Tennessee are decent on the resume as well.

RPI Forecast gives Marquette only a 17% chance of doing that, but that is based on results so far which included eight of 10 games without Luke Fischer.

According to RPI Forecast, Marquette is one of 49 teams projected to have three wins over teams that finish in the Top 50, which would put them right on the bubble of the top 47 or so that get into the tournament. The table below lists the contenders for bids based on how many Top 50 wins they are expected to have, and then how many chances they are expected to have. This ranks MU as 49th because of the teams with 3 Top 50 wins they would have been the one with the most chances (13) so I would put us in last of the 3-team wins. I included teams projected to have at least two wins over top 50 teams and/or to be projected to finish in the RPI Top 70.

If that played out, it would leave Marquette with a 15-15 mark, 7-11 in conference and a 96 RPI – so not enough to get a bid. By my math, Marquette gets in with a 9-9 conference (assuming no slipups in these last two games).

Obviously other games can affect this. Butler, Seton Hall and Georgetown need to stay in the Top 50, and it would be nice if Providence beat Miami to have a shot to finish there. Despite a tough weekend (Seton Hall blown out at Georgia, Xavier being upset by Auburn and Butler losing to Indiana), the Big East is projected to finish 2nd in RPI and have six teams in the top 50 (the projections basically assume one of the six does not end up there and Marquette goes 3-7 against the five that do).

Here is the ranking of NCAA teams based on projected wins over Top 50 teams (tie-breaker who had the fewest chances):

1. Kentucky (SEC) 10 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 1

2. Texas (B12) 10 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 4

3. Kansas (B12) 9 wins over top 50 in 16 chances. RPI 5

4. Baylor (B12) 9 wins over top 50 in 16 chances. RPI 9

5. Duke (ACC) 8 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 2

6. Wisconsin (B10) 8 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 3

7. Louisville (ACC) 8 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 7

8. Virginia (ACC) 7 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 6

9. Villanova (BE) 7 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 14

10. North Carolina (ACC) 7 wins over top 50 in 13 chances. RPI 8

11. West Virginia (B12) 7 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 16

12. Iowa St. (B12) 7 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 25

13. Utah (P12) 6 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 11

14. Butler (BE) 6 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 28

15. Oklahoma St. (B12) 6 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 23

16. Oklahoma (B12) 6 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 18

17. TCU (B12) 6 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 54

18. Arizona (P12) 5 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 13

19. Washington (P12) 5 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 24

20. Xavier (BE) 5 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 21

21. St. John's (BE) 5 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 34

22. Indiana (B10) 5 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 50

23. Georgetown (BE) 5 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 39

24. Ohio St. (B10) 4 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 12

25. Notre Dame (ACC) 4 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 42

26. South Carolina (SEC) 4 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 31

27. Purdue (B10) 4 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 73

28. Seton Hall (BE) 4 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 29

29. Providence (BE) 4 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 55

30. Creighton (BE) 4 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 114

31. Iowa (B10) 4 wins over top 50 in 13 chances. RPI 52

32. Texas Tech (B12) 4 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 84

33. Kansas St. (B12) 4 wins over top 50 in 17 chances. RPI 117

34. Gonzaga (WCC) 3 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 10

35. Wichita St. (MVC) 3 wins over top 50 in 6 chances. RPI 17

36. San Diego St. (MWC) 3 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 27

37. Arkansas (SEC) 3 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 35

38. Wyoming (MWC) 3 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 68

39. VCU (A10) 3 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 15

40. LSU (SEC) 3 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 60

41. Michigan St. (B10) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 32

42. Miami FL (ACC) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 37

43. Minnesota (B10) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 36

44. California (P12) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 40

45. Maryland (B10) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 41

46. Georgia (SEC) 3 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 48

47. Stanford (P12) 3 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 62

48. North Carolina St. (ACC) 3 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 43

49. Marquette (BE) 3 wins over top 50 in 13 chances. RPI 96

50. Colorado St. (MWC) 2 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 26

51. Old Dominion (CUSA) 2 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 38

52. SMU (Amer) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 20

53. Northern Iowa (MVC) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 19

54. Rhode Island (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 53

55. UTEP (CUSA) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 66

56. Evansville (MVC) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 69

57. St. Bonaventure (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 97

58. Davidson (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 6 chances. RPI 22

59. Cincinnati (Amer) 2 wins over top 50 in 6 chances. RPI 58

60. George Washington (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 70

61. Illinois St. (MVC) 2 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 79

62. Auburn (SEC) 2 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 167

63. Florida (SEC) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 30

64. Mississippi (SEC) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 99

65. Illinois (B10) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 51

66. Colorado (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 59

67. Richmond (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 72

68. Oregon (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 106

69. Oregon St. (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 124

70. Georgia Tech (ACC) 2 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 76

71. Long Beach St. (BW) 2 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 82

72. Arizona St. (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 122

73. Syracuse (ACC) 2 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 64

74. Pittsburgh (ACC) 2 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 115

75. UCLA (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 78

76. DePaul (BE) 2 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 193

77. Green Bay (Horz) 1 wins over top 50 in 3 chances. RPI 46

78. Georgia St. (SB) 1 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 56

79. Wofford (SC) 1 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 57

80. Dayton (A10) 1 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 61

81. Boise St. (MWC) 1 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 44

82. Texas A&M (SEC) 1 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 65

83. Connecticut (Amer) 1 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 67

84. Harvard (Ivy) 0 wins over top 50 in 1 chances. RPI 47

85. Buffalo (MAC) 0 wins over top 50 in 2 chances. RPI 33

86. Eastern Washington (BSky) 0 wins over top 50 in 2 chances. RPI 49

87. Stephen F. Austin (Slnd) 0 wins over top 50 in 3 chances. RPI 63

88. BYU (WCC) 0 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 45