NBA Efficiency Projections on Butler Catching Wade or Lucas; All-Time MU-NBA Players Ranked

In light of the big contracts signed by four MU players recently, Ellenson Guerrero posted an incredibly accurate subjective Top 10 of All-Time MU players on MU Scoop. I decided to run the NBA Efficiency rating for all 37 MU players who went to the pros and the projected career figure for active players (see calculations and stats on all 37 at table at the bottom).

For those of you who do not follow it, this is basically the formula NBA coaches use to give a point for everything good a player can do (points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks) and take a point away for everything negative (turnovers, missed free throws and field goals). My slight variation has always been to double up steals and blocks, and only take away half for each missed free throw.

Dwyane Wade is No. 1 with a net positive 20,864 NBA Efficiency. I then adjusted each active players projection based on Doc Rivers' trajectory. At 33 years old, Doc had already put together 93% of his career Efficiency. Wade certainly may have more left as he plays for $20 million next year, but if he does only have 7% left then he would finish at 22,434.

Guerrero is certainly correct to put Mo Lucas No. 2. In fact, the late great is in a virtual tie right now with Wade and well ahead of where any other player projects. With regular season production virtually even with Wade, you can add Lucas five All-Star appearances, and the credit many expert observers gave him the most credit for delivering the Trail Blazers the NBA title the same year MU took the college crown. Not enough to match Wade's titles and All-Star games - but enough to say he is DEFINITELY the second greatest player to come out of MU to date.

Which leads us to Butler. He has a net efficiency of 3871, ahead of where current No. 3 Doc Rivers was at the age of 25. As dominant as he was this season it is possible he could make a run at Wade and Lucas, but he has a long way to go. It is actually a close call on if he can catch Rivers, Jim Chones (currently 4th) and/or Don Kojis (5th). Kojis is not exact because the NBA actually only recorded blocked shots and steals his final two seasons, so I had to estimate - but those three are VERY close right now for who is the third greatest.

Here is where the real surprise will start for some. Wesley Mattehews AND Jae Crowder both project to finish in the top eight - ahead of Thompson, Whitehead, Meminger, McNeill, McIlvaine, Smith etc.

Matthews is already in 7th with 6,319, BUT while he should easily pass George Thompson he is 28 years old and projected to be passed by both Butler (25 years old) and Crowder (24). Obviously we hope Wesley has a complete recovery, but even if he does Doc had already accumulated 63% of his value by this age, so the same track would get Matthews just above 10,000 by career end.

Butler projects to gradruple his 3871 to 15,484, and at 24 Crowder projects to still have 82% of his productivity left and be on course to actually nudge past Matthews (though it is basically a deadeven projection for a tie for 7th all-time)

Steve Novak has his valuable nitch - though overall his numbers do not add up to some of the old greats. Certainly we hope Dwight Buycks unbelievable three-point shooting during and ability to destroy Garry Harris in the few games played give him a chance for a late career, and that Jerel McNeal, DJO and ... okay, a little less enthusiastically ... Vander Blue find a nitch. Here is the breakdown for all 37 players:

Rk	Player	Eff	Age	%done	Proj Car	Pts+Reb+Ast+StlX2+BlkX2-TO-FGmiss--halfFTmiss
1	Dwyane Wade	20864	33	93%	22434	18812+3824+4600+2670+1434--2679--7052-745
2	Maurice Lucas	20158		100%	20158	14857+9306+2498+1606+1318--2316--6652-459
3	Jimmy Butler	3871	25	25%	15484	2993+1093+516+660+216--271--1229-107
4	Doc Rivers	14614		100%	14614	9377+2625+4889+3126+702--1651--4121-333
5	Jim Chones	13785		100%	13785	9821+6427+1292+782+1548--1165--4590-330
6	Don Kojis	12991		100%	12991	9948+4555+1112+859+1718-0--4906-399
7	Jae Crowder	1929	24	18%	10714	1376+674+248+388+126--139--708-36
8	Wesley Matthews	6319	28	63%	10029	6294+1375+911+1010+162--604--2715-114
9	George Thompson	7520		100%	7520	8114+1457+1561+915+150--954--3395-328
10	Jerome Whitehead	6282		100%	6282	4423+3268+374+502+400--696--1832-157
11	Dean Meminger	3955		100%	3955	2552+1086+1046+484+56-0--1108-161
12	Larry McNeill	3502		100%	3502	2533+1440+225+366+156--71--1048-99
13	Jim McIlvaine	3227		100%	3227	1072+1243+105+272+1382--231--525-91
14	Tony Smith	3051		100%	3051	2504+735+881+638+158--442--1345-78
15	Earl Tatum	2893		100%	2893	2508+682+507+638+202--289--1306-49
16	Lloyd Walton	2448		100%	2448	1442+370+1243+528+56--422--720-49
17	Steve Novak	2083	32	91%	2289	2148+583+132+182+76--80--951-7
18	Chris Crawford	1662		100%	1662	1654+547+154+202+160--232--784-39
19	Travis Diener	1122		100%	1122	854+243+432+152+18--99--470-8
20	Bo Ellis	1031		100%	1031	613+482+113+138+168--145--312-26
21	Butch Lee	839		100%	839	773+137+307+174+2--164--362-28
22	Sam Worthen	399		100%	399	239+116+118+114+12--93--100-7
23	Amal McCaskill	374		100%	374	204+213+36+48+72--52--134-13
24	Bob Lackey	355		100%	355	413+164+137+2+0--121--206-34
25	Dwight Buycks	98	26	39%	251	95+35+24+22+0--22--55-1
26	Vander Blue	20	22	8%	250	27+12+9+6+0--8--23-3
27	Lazar Hayward	215		100%	215	207+90+35+34+16--28--132-7
28	Michael Wilson	146		100%	146	108+36+45+30+10--28--50-5
29	Tom Copa	73		100%	73	48+36+3+4+12--8--18-4
30	Bernard Toone	61		100%	61	55+34+12+8+10--16--41-1
31	Joe Thomas	47		100%	47	55+43+17+0+0-0--63-5
32	Brian Brunkhorst	29		100%	29	25+13+3+0+0--5--5-2
33	Jerel McNeal	9	28	63%	14	9+3+2+6+2--5--80
34	Allie McGuire	5		100%	5	4+2+1+0+0-0--20
35	Gene Berce	-2		100%	-2	10++2+0+0-0--11-2
36	Bill Downey	-2		100%	-2	0++0+0+0-0--20
37	Darius Johnson-Odom	-4	25	25%	-16	0+6+2+2+0--2--11-1
Rk	Player	Eff	Age	%done	Proj Car	Pts+Reb+Ast+StlX2+BlkX2-TO-FGmiss--halfFTmiss