Road Warriors Finally Add a Big Home Win

Butler was the 7th Top 200 team to visit the Bradley Center this season. The first times Marquette averaged doing 13 points WORSE than their projection at www.kenpom.com.

Toss-ups vs. Iowa and Seton Hall? 20-point losses. Eight-point favorites over Belmont and DePaul? Losses. Sixteen point favorite over IUPUI? It took overtime. Only Xavier met up to expectations - losing by exactly the eight point projection.

But Henry Ellenson looked like a guy expecting to be in the NBA next year rather than a freshman, scoring 32 points as Marquette beat favored Butler 75-69.

The reason this is so encouraging is that with the freshman experiencing what it is like to have a crowd behind you - rather than disappointed in you - this could help MU take care of business at home.

And if they do that they already played like a tournament team on the road, averaging 5.5 points a game better than projected - but more importantly winning four games in which they were underdogs.

A HUGE win. Here are all the results in home and then away/neutral games.

Home Games vs. Top 200	Result	Projection	Better
DePaul	-1	8	-9
Xavier	-8	-8	0
Seton Hall	-20	1	-21
Iowa	-28	-1	-27
IUPUI	4	16	-12
Belmont	-3	8	-11
Average Home Performance	-9.3	4.0	-13.3
Away Games vs. Top 200
Villanova	-15	-18	3
Providence	1	-11	12
Georgetown	-10	-7	-3
Wisconsin	2	-8	10
Arizona State	5	-2	7
LSU	1	-3	4
Average Away Performance	-2.7	-8.2	5.5

Ellenson 31st Best Defender; MU with 4 in top 15%

It sounds like I depressed fans with Henry Ellenson's Value Add Ranking, and it slipped even further to 405th after the Stetson game. However, in response to the question about why his blocked shots and rebounds do not push him higher - the new run tonight shows he is actually the 32nd best Defensive Player in the Value Add system for taking almost three points per hundred trips a game away from opponents (-2.69, average is 0.00).

Rnk	Player and Number	OffR	DefR	Pts/Gm
100	Fischer, Luke 40	7.29	-0.8	6.2
405	Ellenson, Henry 13	2.24	-2.69	4.05
525	Cohen, Sandy 5	3.33	-0.9	3.57
539	Wilson, Duane 1	3.31	-0.66	3.51

Offensively, he is ranked only 1224th in the nation - improving the team by 2.24 points a game, due to low shooting percentages and turnovers offsetting his points. Duane Wilson and the very efficient Sandy Cohen are the two Marquette players with higher rankings because they miss so many fewer shots.

Luke Fischer has a nice balance, and snuck back into the top 100 overall.

He helps make Marquette be one of 55 teams with four players in the top 15% of players (top 600). Arizona and Iowa have the most complete rotations with 7 players each.

7 top 100 players (2 teams)

Arizona

Iowa

6 top 100 players (6 teams)

Miami FL

North Carolina

Southern California

Southern Methodist

Villanova

West Virginia

5 top 100 players (25 total teams)

Baylor

Butler

Cincinnati

Creighton

Duke

Florida

Indiana

Iowa St.

Kentucky

Louisville

Maryland

Notre Dame

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pittsburgh

Purdue

Seton Hall

South Carolina

St. Mary's

Syracuse

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

Vanderbilt

Virginia

Xavier

4 top 100 players (22 teams)

Akron

Alabama

Arizona St.

Arkansas

Brigham Young

California

Clemson

Connecticut

Dayton

Florida St.

Georgia Tech

Houston

Kansas

Marquette

Memphis

Michigan

Michigan St.

Ohio St.

Stanford

Texas

UCLA

Wisconsin

What's wrong with Henry?

Nothing.

He is just a super talented freshman that shoots more than any other major conference freshman except Jamal Murray of Kentucky.

An MU Scoop question asked how one of the top 10 NBA prospects could only be the 328th most valuable player at Value Add.

The one thing you do fault Henry with is shooting too much even though he is missing. Henry takes 23% of all Marquette shots game in and game out (this even includes all the shots taken when he is on the bench). Only 11 other power conference players shoot as much as Henry:

12 biggest shooters	Yr	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	%sh/gms	eFG%	teamName
Barber+ Anthony 12	Jr	94.8	115.1	28.9	29	27%	44.4	North Carolina St.
Moody+ Stefan 42	Sr	87.1	113.7	32.5	31.4	27%	51.9	Mississippi
Carter+ Eli 3	Sr	76.8	94.6	32.8	34.5	26%	46.8	Boston College
Hield+ Buddy 24	Sr	83.7	124.5	28.7	30.9	26%	63.9	Oklahoma
Murray+ Jamal 23	Fr	85	108	25.7	29	25%	50.8	Kentucky
Brogdon+ Malcolm 15	Sr	82.1	114.8	26.8	30	25%	50.4	Virginia
Whitehead+ Isaiah 15	So	74.1	98.1	30.8	33	24%	41.8	Seton Hall
Canty+ Kareem 1	Jr	85	114.2	27.1	28.7	24%	55.1	Auburn
Bentil+ Ben 0	So	82.1	113.7	27.2	28.3	23%	49.8	Providence
Taylor+ Brandon 10	Sr	79.8	102.8	28	29.1	23%	49.6	Penn St.
Punter+ Kevin 0	Sr	86.8	117.7	27.6	26.5	23%	55.7	Tennessee
Ellenson+ Henry 13	Fr	79.7	99.2	26	28.3	23%	46.6	Marquette

I last ran these before the St. John's game, so they are not quite up to date.

On the question of Value Add not adjusting for double teams - it really does. Players who shoot more because they are the go-to guy usually rank higher in Value Add unless they keep shooting even when it means taking shots that they miss a big percentage of the time - and with an eFG% of 46.6, I just believe Henry is shooting too much. Against Top 100 teams his Offensive Rating at www.kenpom.com is just 87.

His blocked shots (while mostly coming against weak teams) and his rebounding put him in the top 10% of all players - a great mark for a freshman. If you note, Jamal Murray of Kentucky is the only other freshman who shoots as much as Henry.

The other things holding Henry back is that MU has played so many terrible teams, and just like RPI, Value Add is held down if you are putting up a lot of your numbers against awful teams.

But as I point out in a response:

The NBA indicators we give NBA teams measure how good the player should be in the pros - and they are completely different than the college Value Add.

For example, Andre Drummond was ranked 268th in Value Add in College and Jae Crowder was 2nd. It was no comparison. When they met Crowder scored 29 points, had 12 rebounds and finished fouling Drummond out by dunking on him for a 3-point play. Drummond sat with 7 points and 4 rebounds.

Crowder was a MUCH better college player than Drummond - no question. That's why Crowder was a second team All-American and Drummond was nothing. But no one ever doubted that Drummond would be be the better than Crowder in the NBA and be a lottery pick.

It was a tough week for Marquette, just how bad was it?

If you were to base it on twitter/fan forums, Marquette is done as a basketball school for the next 5-10 years. While certainly not that bad, this past week of Marquette basketball was pretty damaging for this season. We spend some time talking about specifics regarding the St Johns and DePaul game, but we really focus on where this team is on the growth curve. We also have some tough talk about the coaching staff and discuss why Henry Ellenson hasn't been the savior some fans thought he would be. Hopefully this pod will be a little cathartic for you. Download this episode (right click and save)

MU 192nd Best Team in US Without Fischer; Fischer Deserves All-Big East

Luke Fischer elevates Marquette from being the 192nd best team in basketball to being the 96th best team according to the Value Add team rankings.

Nat'l	Big East	Off	Def	Value Add
1	Villanova	33.41	-13	46.41
20	Xavier	30.81	-9.59	40.4
32	Creighton	29.71	-5.21	34.92
34	Butler	34.11	-0.34	34.45
45	Seton Hall	25.49	-7.2	32.69
50	Providence	22.49	-9.41	31.9
52	Georgetown	26.7	-5.1	31.8
96	Marquette	20	-6.79	26.79
192	MU w/o Fischer	12.57	-5.96	18.53
153	DePaul	20.71	-1.21	21.92
282	St. John's	7.79	-1.15	8.94

MU's Offensive Efficiency Rating of 101.0 points per 100 trips at www.kenpom.com would be 93.57 if Fischer were not on the team - meaning MU would nudge out Alabama State (who beat Buzz) as the 325th best offense in the country without Fischer's 7.43 Offensive Value Add.

I focus on this not to state the obvious that the very inexperienced team is struggling - but rather to point out that if we are going to base All-Big East voting on how much each player improves his team - his Value Add in my terms - then Fischer should be the All-Big East center.

I feel like I am flashing back to trying to convince people early in Jae Crowder's senior season that he was BY FAR Marquette's best player, only to have people push back. Fischer is not Crowder, BUT he is the second Value Add Top 100 player we have had since Crowder. The one thing I always beg readers is to look at the mistakes - missed shots and turnovers - as much as you look at the positive items, and in the last four games Fischer has been astoundingly good on both fronts.

Value Add	Last 4 Games	Made Shots	Missed Shots	Assists	Turnovers
91	Fischer, Luke	18	7	7	4
328	Ellenson, Henry	23	24	6	13

We do not focus on assists to turnovers for big men as we do for guards, but the number of times a big man can kick the ball back out for a three-pointer versus being stripped once catching the ball is huge. Fischer is almost 2-to-1 at 7-to-4, while we see how the great Ellenson is the reverse during those four games with six assists and 13 turnovers. This is just freshman stuff - it will all be cured so that he can maximize his incredible talent, but right now he is a freshman.

Ellenson's shooting has improved during the four games - during which time his eFG% is over 50% even while his overall FG% is slightly under by one shot. However, can we focus on the fact that Fischer has missed SEVEN shots in four games. He is shooting 72% against four Big East teams - unbelievable.

Fischer is in the Top 100 - worth 6.39 points to Marquette's victory margin - and he is now the sixth most valuable player in the Big East and passed Daniel Ochefu as the top center in the conference. He deserves All-Big East recognition, but that is really hard to get when you have a more talented teammate like Ellenson and a slumping team that is struggling to stay in the Top 100 of 351 teams while you are staying in the top 100 of 4000+ players.

Ellenson currently ranks as the top freshman in the conference at 328th overall. He would lead the All-Freshman Big East team comprised of Villanovas Mikal Bridges (330th) and Jalen Brunson (437th), Creighton's Khyri Thomas (539th) and 6-foot-11 Yankuba Sima (583rd), who will not be on the court tonight for St. John's due to a fractured hand.

Nat'l	Big East Top 5; MU	Team	Class	Off	Def	Value Add	NBA%
21	Hart, Josh 3	Villanova	3 Jr	7.83	-2.97	8.13	26%
46	Bentil, Ben 0	Providence	2 So	7.53	-2.19	7.39
50	Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4	Georgetown	4 Sr	8.09	-1.21	7.33
55	Dunn, Kris 3	Providence	3 Jr	5.01	-4.02	7.14	95%
68	Arcidiacono, Ryan 15	Villanova	4 Sr	6.79	-1.69	6.74
91	Fischer, Luke 40	Marquette	3 Jr	7.43	-0.83	6.39
328	Ellenson, Henry 13	Marquette	1 Fr	3.02	-2.51	4.5	92%
541	Cohen, Sandy 5	Marquette	2 So	3.35	-0.85	3.59
647	Wilson, Duane 1	Marquette	2 So	2.91	-0.57	3.18
964	Johnson, JaJuan 23	Marquette	3 Jr	1.38	-0.91	2.28
1096	Cheatham, Haanif 25	Marquette	1 Fr	1.43	-0.36	1.98
1357	Carter, Traci 21	Marquette	1 Fr	0	-1.1	1.48
1524	Ellenson, Wally 22	Marquette	3 Jr	0.37	-0.41	1.23
1907	Anim, Sacar 2	Marquette	1 Fr	0.11	0.39	0.74
2021	Heldt, Matt 12	Marquette	1 Fr	0	0.36	0.7

We weren't expecting wins, but that doesn't mean we can't be disappointed

The end results of the two games against Top 10 teams were what we expected, but the means by which the results were delivered is an interesting discussion. In this weeks, podcast we break down the Villanova and Xavier games to see where this team is at and what (both positive and negative) can be learned. We spend time discussing defensive strategies and poor shooting as well if Henry's defense is a major issue.We also go on a little rant about student participation and fan support in general in this weeks edition of "crotchety old men". We then look forward to the next two weeks of supposed "get better" games as we play the two worst teams in conference and a non-con game against a cowboy hat. Download this episode (right click and save)

Fischer, Ellenson microcosm of many teams

Fischer and Ellenson are a microcosm of 13 years in the Value Add database - good juniors and seniors are much more valuable to their teams right now than the freshman superstars who will go onto be the NBA stars. Here are the current ratings, and you can get more detail and all 4000+ players at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Keep in mind Dunn would be way ahead of Hart and near Ben Simmons top in the country except for the missed games. In fact, seven of the top eight in the conference are juniors or seniors.

Rnk	Player	Team	Ht	Yr	Offense	Defense	Total Value
1	Hart, Josh 3	Villanova	6' 5"	Jr	7.84	-2.80	11.19
2	Dunn, Kris 3	Providence	6' 4"	Jr	5.54	-4.26	10.73
3	Bentil, Ben 0	Providence	6' 9"	So	7.46	-2.11	10.15
4	Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4	Georgetown	6' 3"	Sr	8.20	-0.91	10.03
5	Arcidiacono, Ryan 15	Villanova	6' 3"	Sr	6.83	-1.85	9.59
6	Ochefu, Daniel 23	Villanova	6' 11"	Sr	4.84	-3.51	8.96
7	Jones, Roosevelt 21	Butler	6' 4"	Sr	6.63	-1.31	8.85
8	Fischer, Luke 40	Marquette	6' 11"	Jr	6.84	-0.82	7.48
9	Bluiett, Trevon 5	Xavier	6' 6"	So	5.60	-1.93	7.35
10	Farr, James 2	Xavier	6' 10"	Sr	4.49	-3.00	7.32
11	Garrett, Billy 5	DePaul	6' 6"	Jr	7.27	0.09	7.28
12	Rodriguez, Desi 20	Seton Hall	6' 6"	So	5.51	-1.78	7.12
13	Henry, Myke 4	DePaul	6' 6"	Sr	5.97	-1.22	7.02
14	Davis, Myles 15	Xavier	6' 2"	Jr	6.03	-0.65	6.77
15	Groselle, Geoffrey 41	Creighton	7' 0	Sr	5.58	-1.30	6.73
16	Chrabascz, Andrew 45	Butler	6' 7"	Jr	6.36	-0.21	6.42
17	Zierden, Isaiah 21	Creighton	6' 3"	Jr	5.16	-0.93	6.17
18	Carrington, Khadeen 0	Seton Hall	6' 3"	So	4.83	-1.24	6.15
19	Wideman, Tyler 4	Butler	6' 8"	So	4.62	-1.32	5.80
20	Bullock, Rodney 5	Providence	6' 8"	So	3.65	-2.26	5.77
21	Reynolds, Jalen 1	Xavier	6' 10"	Jr	2.77	-2.66	5.30
22	Watson, Maurice 10	Creighton	5' 10"	Jr	4.83	-0.37	5.27
23	Macura, JP 55	Xavier	6' 5"	So	4.97	-0.40	5.25
24	Bridges, Mikal 25	Villanova	6' 7"	Fr	3.39	-1.97	5.24
25	Jenkins, Kris 2	Villanova	6' 6"	Jr	4.24	-1.06	5.17
26	Ellenson, Henry 13	Marquette	6' 11"	Fr	2.99	-2.29	5.16
31	Cohen, Sandy 5	Marquette	6' 6"	So	3.63	-0.84	4.37
41	Wilson, Duane 1	Marquette	6' 2"	So	2.91	-0.53	3.48
52	Cheatham, Haanif 25	Marquette	6' 5"	Fr	2.26	-0.11	2.40
61	Johnson, JaJuan 23	Marquette	6' 5"	Jr	1.05	-0.76	1.77
71	Carter, Traci 21	Marquette	6' 0	Fr	0.00	-0.96	0.97
75	Ellenson, Wally 22	Marquette	6' 6"	Jr	0.28	-0.38	0.65
96	Anim, Sacar 2	Marquette	6' 5"	Fr	0.03	0.34	0.02
98	Heldt, Matt 12	Marquette	6' 10"	Fr	0.00	0.34	0.00

'Embarrassing' for ESPN: More Watch Basketball Title Than Football Championship

Paint Touches and others note low ratings for Fox Sports Big East telecasts last year. However, I point out in this piece that with at least $6 billion a year committed to various leagues long-term, ESPN cannot afford to have their football championship draw less than the NCAA title game, or the Rose Bowl draw millions of viewers less than the average March Madness game telecast. Maybe it wasn't all about football, and the Big East ended up in the best spot possible after all.

In an almost unheard of turn of events, more Americans watched the college basketball national title game than the college football national championship, as the ratings disaster continued for ESPN.

The New York Times reported the 23 percent drop to 25.7 million viewers and the fact that millions fewer viewed the football national championship than the NCAA tournament final. The Big Lead called it “embarrassing.”

CBS Sports’ basketball title game between Wisconsin and Duke peaked at 33.4 million, and averaged 28.3. The NCAA boasted that the average viewership of the 65 games over three weeks on CBS, TNT, TBS and TruTV drew 11.3 million—more than three million more than ESPN’s one-and-only Rose Bowl.

Click here to read rest of story.

Riding the roller coaster to start the Big East

Well the Big East has been a headscratcher and we're only 2/9ths of the way through. Life got in the way of podcasting but we're back at it and no better than we've ever been. We talk about all four conference games, what they mean, why they went the way they went, and what conclusions we can draw. This leads to a debate about player performance and what player we trust the most on this Marquette team. We then transition to Henry Ellenson: Overrated, Underrated or properly rated. After that lively debate it's time to talk the very difficult week ahead for Marquette basketball with a road trip to conference leader Villanova and home game against Xavier on the docket. Finally we wrap up with a little light recruiting news. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Only 3 BE Players Possess Ball More than Ellenson; Only 2 Have Higher Possessions AND Offensive Rating than Fischer

Only two Big East Players - Josh Hart and Ryan Arcidiacono of Villanova - have both a higher Offensive Rating and more possessions than Luke Fischer.

Basketball on Paper ran groundbreaking studies showing how much players' Offensive Ratings dropped the more they possessed the ball. Theoretically someone who only shot if they were left alone for a wide open dunk and did not miss would be averaging 200 points per 100 trips.

The more a player must take on - double teams and tougher shots - the more his Offensive Rating drops (Jerry Stackhouse and Allen Iverson were the first studied).

That is the backdrop for Henry Ellenson being one of only four Big East players handling more than 20% of his team's total possessions (www.kenpom.com Min% x Poss%). To that end his 100.1 Offensive Rating is not even average (102.7), but Value Add calculates that the players that must take the brunt of the opponent's defense are adding value, and thus his 5.48 overall value ranks him a strong but not elite 477th of 4000+ players.

Amazingly, two of the other four players are both with Providence - Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil - and those two have extremely high offensive ratings.

The following is a list of all Big East players handling at least 10% of his team's possessions, with Marquette players in gold.

Rnk	Player	Team	Poss/Gm	ORtg	Offense	Defense	Total
875	Whitehead, Isaiah 15	Seton Hall	22.5%	97.4	2.87	-0.80	3.63
31	Dunn, Kris 3	Providence	22.1%	110.0	5.97	-4.06	10.73
34	Bentil, Ben 0	Providence	21.9%	116.3	7.97	-1.70	10.66
477	Ellenson, Henry 13	Marquette	20.9%	100.1	2.99	-2.38	5.48
172	Jones, Roosevelt 21	Butler	19.6%	117.5	6.39	-1.22	7.53
150	Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4	Georgetown	19.6%	112.5	6.84	-1.07	7.83
436	Watson, Maurice 10	Creighton	19.1%	114.4	5.66	-0.11	5.71
179	Garrett, Billy 5	DePaul	18.7%	114.4	7.63	0.08	7.47
9998	Mussini, Federico 4	St. John's	18.0%	90.4	0.06	-0.01	0.08
387	Carrington, Khadeen 0	Seton Hall	17.6%	105.3	4.73	-1.28	5.95
236	Bluiett, Trevon 5	Xavier	17.1%	111.5	4.99	-1.82	6.95
300	Bullock, Rodney 5	Providence	17.1%	108.6	4.26	-2.03	6.42
258	Henry, Myke 4	DePaul	16.5%	110.2	5.58	-1.11	6.82
713	Dunham, Kellen 24	Butler	16.5%	115.3	4.92	0.75	4.25
14	Hart, Josh 3	Villanova	16.4%	126.1	8.03	-2.76	11.80
994	Wilson, Duane 1	Marquette	15.7%	101.8	2.71	-0.56	3.23
1039	Johnson, Durand 5	St. John's	15.4%	96.7	2.21	-0.83	3.10
754	Copeland, Isaac 11	Georgetown	15.3%	104.9	3.40	-0.65	4.13
104	Arcidiacono, Ryan 15	Villanova	15.3%	125.0	7.23	-1.31	8.46
549	Martin, Kelan 30	Butler	15.2%	114.5	4.39	-0.59	5.08
137	Fischer, Luke 40	Marquette	14.9%	118.5	6.92	-0.90	7.98
552	Brunson, Jalen 1	Villanova	14.6%	113.5	4.63	-0.49	5.06
195	Rodriguez, Desi 20	Seton Hall	13.9%	112.0	5.41	-1.81	7.36
57	Ochefu, Daniel 23	Villanova	13.4%	121.0	5.61	-3.35	9.94
1265	Cheatham, Haanif 25	Marquette	13.1%	101.7	2.25	-0.19	2.41
635	Delgado, Angel 31	Seton Hall	13.1%	101.3	2.58	-1.96	4.64
1598	Gordon, Derrick 32	Seton Hall	12.9%	93.7	0.80	-0.85	1.63
362	Davis, Myles 15	Xavier	12.8%	122.6	5.64	-0.51	6.09
220	Chrabascz, Andrew 45	Butler	12.7%	134.1	6.73	-0.24	7.11
956	Peak, LJ 0	Georgetown	12.7%	105.9	3.04	-0.23	3.34
924	Sumner, Edmond 4	Xavier	12.7%	106.2	2.79	-0.69	3.45
738	Hayes, Bradley 42	Georgetown	12.6%	102.6	2.32	-1.78	4.18
2386	Cain, Eli 11	DePaul	12.4%	87.8	0.00	-0.41	0.42
419	Reynolds, Jalen 1	Xavier	12.4%	108.4	3.08	-2.61	5.80
391	Zierden, Isaiah 21	Creighton	12.2%	124.8	5.28	-0.72	5.94
517	Jenkins, Kris 2	Villanova	12.2%	114.9	4.10	-1.00	5.21
2364	Jones, Christian 2	St. John's	12.2%	85.1	0.00	-0.43	0.44
1117	Hamilton, Tommy 2	DePaul	12.1%	98.5	1.71	-1.07	2.83
1502	Mvouika, Ron 24	St. John's	12.0%	98.0	2.07	0.27	1.84
1186	Huff, Cole 13	Creighton	11.7%	105.5	2.11	-0.49	2.65
188	Groselle, Geoffrey 41	Creighton	11.5%	132.8	6.19	-1.08	7.42
1125	Booth, Phil 5	Villanova	11.4%	104.9	2.28	-0.56	2.81
134	Farr, James 2	Xavier	11.4%	120.9	4.78	-3.09	8.02
634	Sima, Yankuba 35	St. John's	11.3%	101.1	2.71	-1.85	4.65
814	Lewis, Tyler 1	Butler	10.7%	124.8	4.45	0.57	3.85
1992	Carter, Traci 21	Marquette	10.7%	88.6	0.00	-0.90	0.89
628	Cohen, Sandy 5	Marquette	10.7%	111.8	3.73	-0.87	4.68
1085	Derrickson, Marcus 24	Georgetown	10.2%	105.4	2.35	-0.51	2.92
844	Simpson, Aaron 15	DePaul	10.0%	111.7	3.62	-0.19	3.76

We also took the 8-person rotation from all 351 teams in order of possessions, and tallied the average Offensive Rating and Value Add for each of the 8-spots.

Rotation	Top 8 Poss/Gm	Off Rat	Off VA	Def VA	Value Add
1	22.6%	105.2	4.77	-0.62	5.42
2	17.9%	104.7	3.69	-0.65	4.42
3	15.0%	105.0	3.18	-0.50	3.77
4	12.6%	102.9	2.40	-0.28	2.78
5	10.6%	102.1	1.91	-0.18	2.21
6	8.8%	98.3	1.30	-0.08	1.54
7	7.1%	97.4	0.98	0.04	1.14
8	5.5%	95.1	0.70	0.21	0.78
R9-13	(4 players total)	86.4	1.06	2.07	0.00
Total	100.0%	102.7	20.00	0.00	22.06

Will Marquette or Kentucky Make the Title Game? They are the only 2 teams matching 4 title game teams in the past 5 years

Four of the past five NCAA Championship games featured a roster averaging less than one year experience AND a top 10 NBA Pick. It is a rare combination, with only 15 rosters in all of D1 averaging less than one year of experience and only two of those teams ALSO featuring a projected top 10 pick at NBA Draft Express.

Marquette and projected No. 7 pick Henry Ellenson pulled off an almost unheard of road win against a Top 10 team Tuesday night. Meanwhile, an LSU team that Marquette already defeated blew out the other team to meet both criteria - Kentucky and projected No. 4 pick Skal Labissiere. Here are the other four teams to accomplish the feat in the past five seasons.

less than 1 yr experience, seed	Season	NCAA Wins	Yrs	Experience	Top 10 NBA Pick
Marquette ?	2016	?	0.86	344	Henry Ellenson 7 proj
Kentucky ?	2016	?	0.95	341	Skal Labissiere 4 proj
Kentucky 8	2014	Runner-up	0.31	351	Julius Randle 7
Michigan 4	2013	Runner-up	0.73	342	Trey Burke 9
Kentucky 1	2012	Champion	0.77	340	Anthony Davis 1
Connecticut 3	2011	Champion	0.94	332	Kemba Walker 9

For one night at least the talent and ceiling was evident - even if the odds of making the tournament are still low. The 15% chance Marquette was given of winning at Providence (www.kenpom.com) let fans see a team with enough talent to possibly go into the Big East tournament and win three in a row - a much easier feat than when UConn started at 49th at www.kenpom.com, lost at home to Jimmy Butler and Marquette late in the season, and then had to win SIX straight games to win the Big East title.

That team had 0.94 years of experience yet the freshmen were turning into sophomores by the end of the year and became one of only four 3-seeds to win the title in the last 28 years. Kentucky was expected to win the title in 2012 with only 0.77 years of experience. However, Trey Burke led one of the youngest teams in the land in Michigan to the title despite them only being a 4-seed, and then an 8th seeded Kentucky (0.31 years experience is the second youngest team since www.kenpom.com started tracking in 2007) went to the title game in 2014.

Ellenson is an inconsistent freshman to date, but he has also shown he can take over and dominate in many ways. If Marquette's freshmen gain confidence and experience and can just find a way to sneak into the tournament they have that rare combination.

The fantastic 65-64 win at Providence - a team with upset wins at Rhode Island and Butler, and neutral court wins over Evansville and Arizona before battling Michigan State even until the final few minutes - shows on a given night the team can beat anyone. MU has now beaten two of the leading candidates for National Player of the Year in Ben Simmons (LSU) and Kris Dunn.

In looking at all teams that have made the NCAA tournament despite having a roster averaging less than one year experience - the overall tournament record is 45-23, better than expected based on seeding. Having the consistency to win enough games to make the tournament will still be difficult - but if MU finds a way to sneak in they have a magical combination that could make for a high ceiling based on recent history.

Other less than 1 yr	Season	NCAA Wins	Yrs	Experience
UAB 14	2015	1	0.84	345
Kentucky 1	2015	4	0.73	346
Indiana 10	2015	0	0.98	336
Kansas 2	2015	1	0.97	338
Texas 7	2014	1	0.8	346
Colorado 8	2014	0	0.9	343
Kansas 2	2014	1	0.72	348
Western Kentucky 16	2012	1	0.84	335
Texas 11	2012	0	0.97	326
Michigan 8	2011	1	0.93	335
Memphis 12	2011	0	0.75	344
Kentucky 1	2010	3	0.83	341
Kansas 3	2009	2	0.88	333
Butler 9	2009	0	0.67	341
San Diego 13	2008	1	0.94	325
Villanova 12	2008	2	0.95	324
Purdue 6	2008	1	0.84	330
Duke 2	2008	1	1.22	295
USC 6	2008	0	0.66	338
Duke 6	2007	0	0.79	331
North Carolina 1	2007	3	0.87	329
45-23 four games > ave.

Updated Rankings: Dunn would be 3rd Nationally Without Missed Games; MU Must Finish in top 6 for any chance

It may be surprising that Luke Fischer and Henry Ellenson stayed pretty close to their overall national rankings after two Big East games (they are now at 106th and 347th). Basically, Value Add measures for the level of each opponent - and in essence viewed really good numbers against some very bad teams as being roughly the same performance as bad numbers against much stronger opponents.

The big problem right now is that the tiny chance of an at large bid being even lower at this point - it would likely take a Big East tournament win to make March Madness. The hard part is MU really must finish at least 6th to avoid a "play-in" game - three upsets in three nights while playing teams equally as tired is hard much trying to win four games in four days is near impossible (see performances against Seton Hall and then Villanova a few hours later from last year).

Anyway, not pretty, but here are the top 20 Value Add teams and where all Big East teams rank if you subtract all the players defense from offense (that's a lot of good teams to pass) followed by the Top 25 Value Add players in the conference and all Marquette's players.

Rnk	Team	Off	Def	Off-Def
1	Virginia	37.21	-9.83	47.05
2	Kansas	35.61	-11.11	46.73
3	Villanova	36.31	-9.42	45.74
4	Louisville	32.61	-12.25	44.86
5	Oklahoma	34.41	-10.24	44.65
6	Michigan St.	34.01	-10.03	44.05
7	Duke	37.01	-6.09	43.10
8	Xavier	31.71	-11.14	42.86
9	Miami FL	33.41	-8.69	42.10
10	Purdue	26.41	-15.68	42.09
11	West Virginia	28.81	-12.55	41.37
12	North Carolina	36.61	-4.56	41.17
13	SMU	36.51	-4.59	41.10
14	Maryland	32.21	-7.90	40.12
15	Arizona	29.71	-9.96	39.67
16	Kentucky	30.61	-8.77	39.39
17	Iowa	33.81	-5.36	39.17
18	Iowa St.	34.01	-4.71	38.73
19	Pittsburgh	33.71	-4.77	38.48
20	Saint Mary's	33.51	-4.22	37.74
33	Butler	34.51	-0.15	34.66
35	Providence	28.21	-6.15	34.36
45	Seton Hall	24.91	-6.81	31.72
59	Creighton	29.61	-0.58	30.19
71	Georgetown	25.71	-3.57	29.28
102	Marquette	20.00	-5.59	25.59
159	DePaul	21.01	0.01	21.00
302	St. John's	5.24	-1.93	7.17

As for Kris Dunn, he would rank third in the country if not for the three games in which he had the flu (he had a negative rating for the Boston University 15 minutes he played with the flu, and a 0.0 for the two games he missed).

Rnk	Rank among 4000+ Players	Team	Ht	Yr	Offense	Defense	Total Value
17	Hart, Josh 3	Villanova	6' 5"	Jr	7.95	-2.65	11.82
22	Dunn, Kris 3	Providence	6' 4"	Jr	6.42	-3.80	11.43
51	Bentil, Ben 0	Providence	6' 9"	So	7.48	-1.67	10.33
63	Arcidiacono, Ryan 15	Villanova	6' 3"	Sr	7.44	-1.28	9.89
72	Ochefu, Daniel 23	Villanova	6' 11"	Sr	5.29	-3.17	9.63
90	Rodriguez, Desi 20	Seton Hall	6' 6"	So	6.45	-1.76	9.21
94	Farr, James 2	Xavier	6' 10"	Sr	5.05	-2.97	9.18
106	Fischer, Luke 40	Marquette	6' 11"	Jr	6.85	-1.03	9.04
113	Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4	Georgetown	6' 3"	Sr	6.81	-0.96	8.93
117	Garrett, Billy 5	DePaul	6' 6"	Jr	7.74	0.04	8.85
131	Jones, Roosevelt 21	Butler	6' 4"	Sr	6.35	-1.08	8.58
132	Henry, Myke 4	DePaul	6' 6"	Sr	6.18	-1.24	8.57
174	Groselle, Geoffrey 41	Creighton	7' 0	Sr	6.04	-0.84	8.02
179	Bullock, Rodney 5	Providence	6' 8"	So	4.95	-1.90	7.99
200	Bluiett, Trevon 5	Xavier	6' 6"	So	4.75	-1.80	7.69
220	Chrabascz, Andrew 45	Butler	6' 7"	Jr	6.21	-0.05	7.39
259	Carrington, Khadeen 0	Seton Hall	6' 3"	So	4.54	-1.52	7.06
264	Reynolds, Jalen 1	Xavier	6' 10"	Jr	3.39	-2.50	7.01
271	Davis, Myles 15	Xavier	6' 2"	Jr	5.27	-0.56	6.95
289	Brunson, Jalen 1	Villanova	6' 2"	Fr	5.29	-0.38	6.78
306	Wideman, Tyler 4	Butler	6' 8"	So	4.20	-1.38	6.69
347	Ellenson, Henry 13	Marquette	6' 10"	Fr	3.39	-1.95	6.44
352	Martin, Kelan 30	Butler	6' 6"	So	4.59	-0.70	6.39
357	Zierden, Isaiah 21	Creighton	6' 3"	Jr	5.16	-0.22	6.38
358	Delgado, Angel 31	Seton Hall	6' 9"	So	3.00	-2.25	6.35
452	Cohen, Sandy 5	Marquette	6' 6"	So	3.93	-0.80	5.73
790	Wilson, Duane 1	Marquette	6' 2"	So	2.54	-0.51	4.05
1015	Johnson, JaJuan 23	Marquette	6' 5"	Jr	1.26	-0.97	3.22
1129	Cheatham, Haanif 25	Marquette	6' 5"	Fr	1.77	-0.05	2.82
1547	Carter, Traci 21	Marquette	6' 0	Fr	0.00	-0.67	1.68
1585	Ellenson, Wally 22	Marquette	6' 6"	Jr	0.24	-0.37	1.62
1936	Anim, Sacar 2	Marquette	6' 5"	Fr	0.02	0.37	1.01
1963	Heldt, Matt 12	Marquette	6' 10"	Fr	0.00	0.38	1.00