It may be surprising that Luke Fischer and Henry Ellenson stayed pretty close to their overall national rankings after two Big East games (they are now at 106th and 347th). Basically, Value Add measures for the level of each opponent - and in essence viewed really good numbers against some very bad teams as being roughly the same performance as bad numbers against much stronger opponents.
The big problem right now is that the tiny chance of an at large bid being even lower at this point - it would likely take a Big East tournament win to make March Madness. The hard part is MU really must finish at least 6th to avoid a "play-in" game - three upsets in three nights while playing teams equally as tired is hard much trying to win four games in four days is near impossible (see performances against Seton Hall and then Villanova a few hours later from last year).
Anyway, not pretty, but here are the top 20 Value Add teams and where all Big East teams rank if you subtract all the players defense from offense (that's a lot of good teams to pass) followed by the Top 25 Value Add players in the conference and all Marquette's players.
| Rnk | Team | Off | Def | Off-Def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virginia | 37.21 | -9.83 | 47.05 |
| 2 | Kansas | 35.61 | -11.11 | 46.73 |
| 3 | Villanova | 36.31 | -9.42 | 45.74 |
| 4 | Louisville | 32.61 | -12.25 | 44.86 |
| 5 | Oklahoma | 34.41 | -10.24 | 44.65 |
| 6 | Michigan St. | 34.01 | -10.03 | 44.05 |
| 7 | Duke | 37.01 | -6.09 | 43.10 |
| 8 | Xavier | 31.71 | -11.14 | 42.86 |
| 9 | Miami FL | 33.41 | -8.69 | 42.10 |
| 10 | Purdue | 26.41 | -15.68 | 42.09 |
| 11 | West Virginia | 28.81 | -12.55 | 41.37 |
| 12 | North Carolina | 36.61 | -4.56 | 41.17 |
| 13 | SMU | 36.51 | -4.59 | 41.10 |
| 14 | Maryland | 32.21 | -7.90 | 40.12 |
| 15 | Arizona | 29.71 | -9.96 | 39.67 |
| 16 | Kentucky | 30.61 | -8.77 | 39.39 |
| 17 | Iowa | 33.81 | -5.36 | 39.17 |
| 18 | Iowa St. | 34.01 | -4.71 | 38.73 |
| 19 | Pittsburgh | 33.71 | -4.77 | 38.48 |
| 20 | Saint Mary's | 33.51 | -4.22 | 37.74 |
| 33 | Butler | 34.51 | -0.15 | 34.66 |
| 35 | Providence | 28.21 | -6.15 | 34.36 |
| 45 | Seton Hall | 24.91 | -6.81 | 31.72 |
| 59 | Creighton | 29.61 | -0.58 | 30.19 |
| 71 | Georgetown | 25.71 | -3.57 | 29.28 |
| 102 | Marquette | 20.00 | -5.59 | 25.59 |
| 159 | DePaul | 21.01 | 0.01 | 21.00 |
| 302 | St. John's | 5.24 | -1.93 | 7.17 |
As for Kris Dunn, he would rank third in the country if not for the three games in which he had the flu (he had a negative rating for the Boston University 15 minutes he played with the flu, and a 0.0 for the two games he missed).
| Rnk | Rank among 4000+ Players | Team | Ht | Yr | Offense | Defense | Total Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hart, Josh 3 | Villanova | 6' 5" | Jr | 7.95 | -2.65 | 11.82 |
| 22 | Dunn, Kris 3 | Providence | 6' 4" | Jr | 6.42 | -3.80 | 11.43 |
| 51 | Bentil, Ben 0 | Providence | 6' 9" | So | 7.48 | -1.67 | 10.33 |
| 63 | Arcidiacono, Ryan 15 | Villanova | 6' 3" | Sr | 7.44 | -1.28 | 9.89 |
| 72 | Ochefu, Daniel 23 | Villanova | 6' 11" | Sr | 5.29 | -3.17 | 9.63 |
| 90 | Rodriguez, Desi 20 | Seton Hall | 6' 6" | So | 6.45 | -1.76 | 9.21 |
| 94 | Farr, James 2 | Xavier | 6' 10" | Sr | 5.05 | -2.97 | 9.18 |
| 106 | Fischer, Luke 40 | Marquette | 6' 11" | Jr | 6.85 | -1.03 | 9.04 |
| 113 | Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4 | Georgetown | 6' 3" | Sr | 6.81 | -0.96 | 8.93 |
| 117 | Garrett, Billy 5 | DePaul | 6' 6" | Jr | 7.74 | 0.04 | 8.85 |
| 131 | Jones, Roosevelt 21 | Butler | 6' 4" | Sr | 6.35 | -1.08 | 8.58 |
| 132 | Henry, Myke 4 | DePaul | 6' 6" | Sr | 6.18 | -1.24 | 8.57 |
| 174 | Groselle, Geoffrey 41 | Creighton | 7' 0 | Sr | 6.04 | -0.84 | 8.02 |
| 179 | Bullock, Rodney 5 | Providence | 6' 8" | So | 4.95 | -1.90 | 7.99 |
| 200 | Bluiett, Trevon 5 | Xavier | 6' 6" | So | 4.75 | -1.80 | 7.69 |
| 220 | Chrabascz, Andrew 45 | Butler | 6' 7" | Jr | 6.21 | -0.05 | 7.39 |
| 259 | Carrington, Khadeen 0 | Seton Hall | 6' 3" | So | 4.54 | -1.52 | 7.06 |
| 264 | Reynolds, Jalen 1 | Xavier | 6' 10" | Jr | 3.39 | -2.50 | 7.01 |
| 271 | Davis, Myles 15 | Xavier | 6' 2" | Jr | 5.27 | -0.56 | 6.95 |
| 289 | Brunson, Jalen 1 | Villanova | 6' 2" | Fr | 5.29 | -0.38 | 6.78 |
| 306 | Wideman, Tyler 4 | Butler | 6' 8" | So | 4.20 | -1.38 | 6.69 |
| 347 | Ellenson, Henry 13 | Marquette | 6' 10" | Fr | 3.39 | -1.95 | 6.44 |
| 352 | Martin, Kelan 30 | Butler | 6' 6" | So | 4.59 | -0.70 | 6.39 |
| 357 | Zierden, Isaiah 21 | Creighton | 6' 3" | Jr | 5.16 | -0.22 | 6.38 |
| 358 | Delgado, Angel 31 | Seton Hall | 6' 9" | So | 3.00 | -2.25 | 6.35 |
| 452 | Cohen, Sandy 5 | Marquette | 6' 6" | So | 3.93 | -0.80 | 5.73 |
| 790 | Wilson, Duane 1 | Marquette | 6' 2" | So | 2.54 | -0.51 | 4.05 |
| 1015 | Johnson, JaJuan 23 | Marquette | 6' 5" | Jr | 1.26 | -0.97 | 3.22 |
| 1129 | Cheatham, Haanif 25 | Marquette | 6' 5" | Fr | 1.77 | -0.05 | 2.82 |
| 1547 | Carter, Traci 21 | Marquette | 6' 0 | Fr | 0.00 | -0.67 | 1.68 |
| 1585 | Ellenson, Wally 22 | Marquette | 6' 6" | Jr | 0.24 | -0.37 | 1.62 |
| 1936 | Anim, Sacar 2 | Marquette | 6' 5" | Fr | 0.02 | 0.37 | 1.01 |
| 1963 | Heldt, Matt 12 | Marquette | 6' 10" | Fr | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1.00 |
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