Fischer, JJJ or Cheatham Could Join Ellenson in NBA to keep MU in Top 15 NBA Factories

Value Add updated the chance of players making the NBA last night, and the odds are that at least one of three players - Luke Fischer (35%), JuJuan Johnson (21%) and/or Haanif Cheatham (16%) will join Henry Ellenson in the NBA one day. Since 2003, MU has averaged having 2.5 future NBA players on each roster - the 15th best total in the country.

In the days ahead we will be updating the historic database to indicate the last year each player appeared in the NBA. One interesting note in building this database is that steals were not as big a predictor as in the past, while rebounding, blocked shots, two-point shots and the ability to get to the line all separate future NBA players from the very good college players that do NOT make the NBA:

Average Player Performance 2003-2016	OR%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%	FTRate	2-pt %
1500 top players who did not make NBA	3.46	11.10	0.86	2.23	36.35	47%
Possible players	6.97	14.83	3.17	1.82	42.37	51%
Future NBA average	7.08	14.74	3.08	2.17	42.09	51%
NBA Center	11.62	19.81	6.86	1.61	51.65	55%
NBA PF	9.60	17.95	3.99	1.83	44.11	53%
NBA PG	2.80	9.57	0.76	2.76	39.42	48%
NBA SF	7.01	14.80	2.66	2.09	38.90	51%
NBA SG	4.68	11.91	1.36	2.54	36.91	49%

The 1500 seasons in which a player was on the court a bit more than 80% of the time but did NOT ultimately make the NBA, resulted in the average percentages on the top line.

MU is credited for 1.63 future NBA players on the current roster (adding the percent chance each player makes it), while last year's team is credited for 0.56 with Fischer and Johnson on that team as well. If Matt Carlino were to make the jump it would add a player to 2015.

As we go back earlier, we see that MU's 2011 team had FIVE future NBA players, though only Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler played more than a few games. The first year in the database, the 2003 Final Four team, featured only three future NBA players, but all three had extended careers.

	College Yr	NBA Last Year or %
Ellenson, Henry 13	2016	91%
Fischer, Luke 40	2016	35%
Johnson, JaJuan 23	2016	21%
Cheatham, Haanif 25	2016	16%
Total estimated 2016 team		1.63
Fischer, Luke 40	2015	35%
Johnson, JaJuan 23	2015	21%
Total estimated 2015 team		0.56
Crowder, Jae 32	2012	2016
Butler, Jimmy 33	2011	2016
Crowder, Jae 32	2011	2016
Butler, Jimmy 33	2010	2016
Butler, Jimmy 33	2009	2016
Matthews, Wesley 23	2009	2016
Matthews, Wesley 23	2008	2016
Matthews, Wesley 23	2007	2016
Novak, Steve	2006	2016
Matthews, Wesley	2006	2016
Novak, Steve	2005	2016
Novak, Steve	2004	2016
Wade, Dwyane	2003	2016
Novak, Steve	2003	2016
Blue, Vander 13	2013	2015
Blue, Vander 2	2012	2015
Blue, Vander 2	2011	2015
Buycks, Dwight 23	2011	2015
Buycks, Dwight 23	2010	2015
McNeal, Jerel 22	2009	2015
McNeal, Jerel 22	2008	2015
McNeal, Jerel 22	2007	2015
McNeal, Jerel	2006	2015
Johnson-Odom, Darius 1	2012	2014
Johnson-Odom, Darius 1	2011	2014
Johnson-Odom, Darius 1	2010	2014
Hayward, Lazar 32	2010	2013
Hayward, Lazar 32	2009	2013
Hayward, Lazar 32	2008	2013
Hayward, Lazar 32	2007	2013
Diener, Travis	2005	2010
Diener, Travis	2004	2010
Diener, Travis	2003	2010
Estimated 2.5 future NBA/season

Over those seasons MU had 33 players on the roster who made the NBA - understanding that a four-year player like Lazar Hayward counts as four. The current players add a total of 2.2 anticipated spots based on adding the percentages from last year.

While some teams have many more one-and-dones, the fact that MU has had so many players stay through their senior year and then make it to the NBA has led to a roster that averages 2.5 future NBA players each season.

The Blue Bloods are higher - led by an incredible average of 5.1 per Duke roster - but the vast majority of schools do not see the number of future NBA players on the court as we see at the Bradley Center.

Rnk	School since 2003	Future NBA/Year	Total
1	Duke	5.1	71.9
2	Kansas	4.9	68.1
3	North Carolina	4.7	66.4
4	Kentucky	4.7	66.3
5	UCLA	3.5	49.0
6	Connecticut	3.1	43.6
7	Washington	3.0	41.9
8	Syracuse	3.0	41.6
9	Arizona	3.0	41.4
10	Michigan St.	2.9	40.7
11	Louisville	2.8	38.5
12	Memphis	2.7	37.4
13	Notre Dame	2.5	35.5
14	Florida	2.5	35.5
15	Marquette	2.5	35.2
16	Georgetown	2.5	34.9
17	Texas	2.5	34.5
18	Michigan	2.4	33.4
19	Gonzaga	2.1	29.3
20	Wisconsin	2.0	27.4
21	Georgia Tech	1.9	26.8
22	LSU	1.8	25.4
23	Oklahoma St.	1.8	25.3
24	Villanova	1.8	24.7
25	Florida St.	1.8	24.6
26	Maryland	1.7	23.9
27	Vanderbilt	1.6	22.7
28	Iowa St.	1.6	22.0
29	Colorado	1.6	21.8
30	Illinois	1.5	21.5
31	California	1.5	21.0
32	Virginia	1.5	21.0
33	Purdue	1.4	20.3
34	USC	1.4	19.9
35	Georgia	1.4	19.6
36	Tennessee	1.4	19.3
37	Indiana	1.4	19.2
38	North Carolina St.	1.4	19.0
39	Pittsburgh	1.4	19.0
40	Texas A and M	1.3	18.1
41	Arkansas	1.3	17.9
42	Missouri	1.3	17.7
43	Nevada	1.2	17.0
44	New Mexico	1.2	17.0
45	Miami FL	1.2	16.9
46	Stanford	1.2	16.4
47	Oregon	1.1	16.0
48	Alabama	1.1	15.7
49	Wake Forest	1.1	15.4
50	Ohio St.	1.1	15.3