Value Add Rankings, Projected NCAA Bids and Impact Players Returning in December

Value Add ranks UNC No. 1, while remaining more skeptical of the AP No. 1 Kentucky. A UNC-Nova (#3) rematch for the national title is possible, but the Value Add dark horse is Utah. The Utes would rank 16th based on their players' Value Add to date, but Value Add projects that big man transfer David Collette in the coming weeks makes them the fifth best team in the country.

On the downside, Virginia's 50.77 is actually No. 1, but that includes 1.9 from Memphis transfer Austin Nichols, who has been kicked off the team. After subtracting out his value UVa falls three spots to No. 4 at 48.87.

ValueAddBasketball.com calculates Marquette with just enough talent to sneak into the last NCAA tournament spot, giving the Big East six teams. That ranks behind only the ACC (12), Big 12 (8) and Big Ten (7), and with a better ratio than the Big Ten. Value Add gives the Pac 12 five teams, but for some reason is particularly unkind to the SEC while giving only Kentucky and Florida a bid. However, a half dozen SEC teams are in the top 66, so that number could grow. The A10, American Athletic and West Coast Conference all have three bids. The other 23 conferences only get one bid.

Marquette will face Fresno State while Value Add calculates they have the 189th best team in the country. The week after that game Karachi Edo will take final exams to try to become eligible at which point Value Add calculates his impact (+5.0 Value Add) moves them up 89 spots to make them the 100th best team. Last year he went 7 of 9 shooting to keep close to Utah in the NCAA.

Here is the ranking of teams that either project to make the tournament, be in the last four out, or to have a player returning in the next few weeks (mid-season transfers or early season injuries) to give a significant Value Add boost in the second number - or in the case of UVa and UConn a big loss.

Rnk	Team	Con	Bid?	Value Add	Trans/Inj	Key Transfers/Injuries changing 2nd number
1	North Carolina	ACC	auto	49.98	49.98	We don't project return value for long-term injuries like Theo Pinson - the players listed below should be back within a couple of weeks.
2	Duke	ACC	bid	49.43	49.43
3	Villanova	BE	auto	48.87	48.87
4	Virginia	ACC	bid	50.77	48.87	Austin Nichols -1.9 Memphis transfer dismissed after strong opener.
5	Utah	P12	auto	40.51	48.51	David Collette +8.0 Value Add's 18th best freshman in 2015 before Utah St. tried for months to block his transfer to Utah, where ex-NBA center Larry Krystkowiak could make him another NBA center.
6	Gonzaga	WCC	auto	47.07	47.07
7	Kansas	B12	auto	46.70	46.70
8	Wichita St.	MVC	auto	46.60	46.60
9	Syracuse	ACC	bid	46.58	46.58
10	Kentucky	SEC	auto	46.57	46.57	AP No. 1
11	Wisconsin	B10	auto	45.28	45.28
12	Louisville	ACC	bid	43.05	43.05
13	Purdue	B10	bid	42.54	42.54
14	Indiana	B10	bid	42.07	42.07
15	Miami FL	ACC	bid	41.86	41.86
16	Clemson	ACC	bid	39.47	41.47	Elijah Thomas +2.0 former top 50 prospect transferred from Texas A&M to play in December.
17	Butler	BE	bid	41.37	41.37
18	Michigan	B10	bid	40.87	40.87
19	Saint Mary's	WCC	bid	40.71	40.71
20	Iowa St.	B12	bid	40.70	40.70
21	Arizona	P12	bid	40.19	40.19	AP No. 8
22	Florida	SEC	bid	40.02	40.02
23	BYU	WCC	bid	39.84	39.84
24	West Virginia	B12	bid	39.44	39.44
25	Xavier	BE	bid	39.20	39.20
26	Oklahoma	B12	bid	38.00	39.00	Dante Buford +1.0 coming off suspension after some action as a freshman.
27	Baylor	B12	bid	38.99	38.99
28	Cincinnati	Amer	auto	38.95	38.95
29	East Tennessee St.	SC	auto	38.81	38.81
30	VCU	A10	auto	38.78	38.78
31	UCLA	P12	bid	38.77	38.77
32	Seton Hall	BE	bid	38.34	38.34
33	Colorado	P12	bid	38.07	38.07
34	Ohio St.	B10	bid	37.99	37.99
35	Creighton	BE	bid	37.74	37.74
36	Texas Tech	B12	bid	37.71	37.71
37	Notre Dame	ACC	bid	37.66	37.66
38	Michigan St.	B10	bid	37.48	37.48
39	Rhode Island	A10	bid	37.34	37.34
40	Virginia Tech	ACC	bid	37.23	37.23
41	Kansas St.	B12	bid	36.91	36.91
42	Florida St.	ACC	bid	36.52	36.52
43	TCU	B12	bid	32.37	36.37	Alex Robinson +4.0 a number of double digit outings at Texas A&M before transfer, enough to take them from 67th to 43rd and make the tournament.
44	Princeton	Ivy	auto	36.31	36.31
45	Wake Forest	ACC	bid	36.08	36.08
46	Houston	Amer	bid	35.98	35.98
47	Dayton	A10	bid	35.79	35.79
48	Marquette	BE	bid	35.21	35.21	Yes the last bid, and no I did not fudge - just ran the numbers.
49	SMU	Amer	last4	35.10	35.10
50	Minnesota	B10	last4	34.97	34.97
51	North Carolina St.	ACC	last4	34.96	34.96
52	California	P12	last4	34.69	34.69
54	UNC Wilmington	CAA	auto	32.66	34.16	Names in italics below would make the tournament by winning their conference Ambrose Mosley +2.5 at UNCW for senior year after being leading 3-point shooter for 27-8 ODU team.
57	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	auto	26.33	33.83	Khalil Ahmad +7.0 conference freshman of the year missing semester for academics, Riley Dearring +1 hit a couple of shots for Wisconsin's tourney team two years ago.
60	St. Bonaventure	A10	gain	32.48	33.48	Nelson Kaputo +1.0 some action as freshman and needs to pass exams to return Dec 17.
70	Ohio	MAC	auto	32.09	32.09
72	San Diego St.	MWC	auto	31.36	31.36
78	Incarnate Word	Slnd	inelig	30.57	30.57	new D1 not eligible yet, but otherwise could make tournament at-large or as conf champ
80	North Dakota St.	Sum	auto	29.94	29.94
83	Valparaiso	Horz	auto	29.63	29.63
84	Charlotte	CUSA	auto	28.09	29.59	Austin Ajukwa +1.5 two seasons at Clemson and should contribute at Charlotte.
89	Georgia Tech	ACC	gain	27.85	29.05	Josh Heath +1.2 takes the court against Tulane Saturday after 4-game suspension.
91	Belmont	OVC	auto	28.84	28.84
100	Fresno St.	MWC	gain	23.21	28.21	Karachi Edo +5.0 capped 3 strong first years with 7 of 9 shooting to keep close to Utah in the NCAA, but must pass exams in mid-December.
103	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	auto	28.06	28.06
107	Missouri	SEC	gain	25.84	27.84	Jordan Barnett +2.0 returns to Missouri from Texas - former top 100 recruit.
110	Winthrop	BSth	auto	27.66	27.66
113	Vermont	AE	auto	27.35	27.35
116	UT Arlington	SB	auto	27.20	27.20
117	Siena	MAAC	auto	27.18	27.18
118	Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	auto	27.10	27.10
126	Texas Southern	SWAC	auto	22.74	26.24	Tevon Saddler +3.5 led UNCG in scoring and assists before transfer.
128	Boston University	Pat	auto	26.16	26.16
158	New Mexico St.	WAC	auto	24.36	24.36
159	Montana	BSky	auto	24.36	24.36
167	Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	gain	23.64	24.04	Following teams have significant player changes to their current Value Add Fallou Ndoye +0.4 played in 30 games as a freshman at Mississippi St. then six more last year before transfer.
184	DePaul	BE	gain	22.42	23.42	Austin Grandstaff +0.2 hit some 3-pointers for Ohio State.
191	Western Kentucky	CUSA	gain	21.50	23.00	Jabari McGhee +1.5 hit 62% of his shots (23-37) at Tennessee.
192	Connecticut	Amer	lost	27.46	22.96	Terry Larrier -4.5 off to a great start but season ending knee injury crushing for Uconn.
199	Wagner	NEC	auto	22.46	22.46
224	Kent St.	MAC	gain	19.08	21.08	Taishaun Johnson +2.0 after averaging 12.5 points as a freshman at South Alabama, a nice addition.
235	Norfolk St.	MEAC	auto	20.34	20.34
236	Tennessee Tech	OVC	gain	19.80	20.30	Curtis Phillips +0.5 eight points a game at Campbell.
239	South Florida	Amer	gain	14.63	20.13	Jahmal McMurray +4.5 all-freshman team hopes to return from suspension, Isaiah Manderson 1.0 Texas Tech transfer 4.4 ppg as freshman.
257	Alabama St.	SWAC	gain	15.95	18.95	Demetrius Houston +3.0 returns home to Montgomery after showing promise his freshman year at Mississippi St.
263	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	gain	15.42	18.42	Justin Massey +3.0 solid player at Florida Atlantic as a freshman, then transferred to Brown for 9 games before coming back.
280	Pepperdine	WCC	gain	16.85	17.85	Kameron Edwards +1.0 after scoring 7 points/gm as a freshman he will return from a jaw injury.
294	Howard	MEAC	gain	13.15	17.15	James Daniel +4.0 quest for 2000 points resumes after early season ankle injury.

JJJ 1st Team All-Big East Defense; Cheatham & Fischer 3rd Team All-Big East

Haanif Cheatham and Luke Fischer earn All-Big East 3rd Team Honors in the early going, based on Value Add Calculations. Cheatham improves MU by 6.94 points per 100 offensive trips, and takes 1.21 points off the opponents scoreboard during those trips for a total Version 3 Value Add of 6.94 points.

Version 4.0 (introduced this week) calculates that the average shooting guard is averaging almost 10% less value than other players, so between that adjustment and the calculation of how much value Cheatham could have with 16% of MU's possessions instead of his current 14%, Cheatham calculates to a  potential overall value of 9.48 if MU can get him the ball more.

Only three sophomores (Bridges, Thomas and Cain) and one freshman (LoVett) are more valuable than Cheatham.

Luke Fischer is just behind Cheatham at 9.38 and could definitely use more than 12% of all possessions as he hits over 70 percent of his shots. Both are in the 94th percentile of all players at 265th and 271st nationally of over 4000 players that can be pulled up at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

JuJuan Johnson's -2.76 defensive rating is the fourth best in the Big East, meaning he takes away three points per 100 trips away from opponents over a replacement player. Duane Wilson and Sam Hauser have been very valuable while having the ball 8 percent of the time for MU, indicating  they would both join Johnson as very valuable if they were given the ball a lot more often (16% instead of their current 8%).

These rankings are based on how valuable players would be if given the opportunity to be a major contributor for their team, so players like Baldwin and O'Mara have not truly been worth enough points to make the first two teams, but in theory are playing at that level while on the court and getting the ball.

Nat'l	1st Team All-Big East	Team	Value4.0	V3.0	Poss	Off	Def
23	JP Macura #55	Xavier	14.71	12.25	19%	11.42	-0.83
24	Mikal Bridges #25	Villanova	14.67	11.19	12%	9.14	-2.04
55	Josh Hart #3	Villanova	12.95	11.78	20%	9.41	-2.36
56	Kamar Baldwin #3	Butler	12.95	7.42	9%	3.86	-3.56
95	Khyri Thomas #2	Creighton	11.88	8.15	12%	7.05	-1.1
Nat'l	2nd Team All-Big East	Team	Value4.0	V3.0	Poss	Off	Def
111	Rodney Pryor #23	Georgetown	11.57	11.57	17%	9.69	-1.88
175	LJ Peak #0	Georgetown	10.64	9.67	20%	8.36	-1.31
198	Eli Cain #11	DePaul	10.32	10.32	21%	10.77	0.44
219	Marcus LoVett #15	St. John's	10.02	8.35	24%	8.41	0.06
235	Sean O'Mara #54	Xavier	9.79	5.66	8%	5.08	-0.58
Nat'l	3rd Team All-Big East	Team	Value4.0	V3.0	Poss	Off	Def
243	Tyler Lewis #1	Butler	9.7	5.03	9%	4.99	-0.05
265	Haanif Cheatham #25	Marquette	9.48	8.15	14%	6.94	-1.21
270	Khadeen Carrington #0	Seton Hall	9.39	8.53	19%	8.24	-0.29
271	Luke Fischer #40	Marquette	9.38	7.14	12%	6.13	-1.02
283	Darrick Wood #1	DePaul	9.26	4.82	8%	5.77	0.95
Nat'l	Other High MU Players	Team	Value4.0	V3.0	Poss	Off	Def
499	Duane Wilson #1	Marquette	7.64	4.2	8%	3.36	-0.84
666	JaJuan Johnson #23	Marquette	6.67	6.44	15%	3.68	-2.76
669	Sam Hauser #10	Marquette	6.65	3.87	8%	3.17	-0.7

A piece in Breitbart Sports indicated former MU recruit

Marial Shayok was one of the top 10 Value Add players through Saturday, but he has dropped to 84th as of Thanksgiving.

Maybe we got a little ahead of ourselves

Well, the tone of this podcast has changed rapidly, much like Marquette's performance on the court. No sugar coating it, we got a little over our skis after the first two games of the season with Michigan and Pitt bringing us all back to Earth. We spend time talking about the 2K Classic results and what it means for Marquette. We try to breakdown what went wrong and how it might be corrected. We also have a discussion around the coaching staff and whether or not there is reason to be concerned early in year 3 of the Wojo era. After finishing our moping about the NYC results we turn to some surprising news in the transfer of Sandy Cohen. We discuss what the news means, and how it may have come to this. Then, wrapping up the Eeyore episode of Scrambled Eggs, we look ahead to the rest of the non-conference schedule and look at how it may play out with the new, less rose colored viewpoint. Download this episode (right click and save)

Value Add 4.0 Process and Rankings; High Ranking MU Trio

One year ago Value Add 3.0 provided the most precise value of all 4000 players in D1 basketball, and now Value Add 4.0 finally provides a measurement of how valuable each player would be if they were a Major Contributor for their team. This answers the lingering criticism of how we measure the value of a superstar stuck down the bench at Kentucky.

First we will reveal the top few players, the players from Major Conferences in the Top 1% of all players (top 40), the Big East players in the top 5% of all players (top 200) and the Marquette trio in the top 15% of all players, then we will cover the new math. While we are just updating the tables, you can find the ranking for all 3,898 players by clicking on www.valueaddbasketball.com.

No. 13 on the early list is a painful one for MU, as Brewtown Andy wrote two years ago.
.

Rnk	Player	Team	v4.0 if Major	Conf	v3.0 Pts/G	%usage	Pos	GoTo Adj
1	Jacob Van #15	Air Force	16.48	MWC	13.73	16%	PG*1.2	1.00
2	Jeremy Morgan #20	Northern Iowa	16.19	MVC	16.19	21%	PF*1	1.00
3	David DiLeo #14	Central Michigan	15.84	MAC	14.14	14%	PF*1	1.12
4	Marquis Wright #1	Siena	12.30	MAAC	10.25	26%	PG*1.2	1.00
5	Brandon Parrish #11	TCU	12.17	B12	7.02	8%	PF*1	1.73
8	Markelle Fultz #20	Washington	12.03	P12	10.03	31%	PG*1.2	1.00
12	Charles Cooke #4	Dayton	11.02	A10	11.02	23%	PF*1	1.00
13	Marial Shayok #4	Virginia	10.93	ACC	6.72	10%	SG*1.1	1.48
17	Devin Davis #15	Houston	10.73	Amer	10.73	16%	C*1	1.00
19	Josh Hart #3	Villanova	10.51	BE	9.55	20%	SG*1.1	1.00
20	DJ Johnson #4	Kansas St.	10.42	B12	7.36	11%	C*1	1.42
22	Devin Robinson #1	Florida	10.41	SEC	8.14	12%	SF*1	1.28
24	Malcolm Hill #21	Illinois	10.36	B10	10.36	25%	SF*1	1.00
29	ShawnDre' Jones #3	Richmond	9.97	A10	8.31	29%	PG*1.2	1.00
31	Tyus Battle #25	Syracuse	9.86	ACC	5.15	8%	SG*1.1	1.74
32	Mikal Bridges #25	Villanova	9.76	BE	7.56	12%	SF*1	1.29
33	Joel Berry #2	North Carolina	9.76	ACC	7.96	15%	PG*1.2	1.02
35	Anton Beard #31	Arkansas	9.70	SEC	5.13	9%	PG*1.2	1.58
36	Manu Lecomte #20	Baylor	9.61	B12	8.01	19%	PG*1.2	1.00
63	Khyri Thomas #2	Creighton	8.81	BE	6.01	12%	SG*1.1	1.33
68	Kamar Baldwin #3	Butler	8.68	BE	5.16	10%	SG*1.1	1.53
107	Darryl Reynolds #45	Villanova	7.55	BE	4.02	6%	C*1	1.88
120	Shamorie Ponds #2	St. John's	7.30	BE	6.41	15%	SG*1.1	1.03
171	JP Macura #55	Xavier	6.63	BE	5.53	21%	PG*1.2	1.00
182	Justin Patton #23	Creighton	6.49	BE	4.24	10%	C*1	1.53
190	Jalen Brunson #1	Villanova	6.41	BE	5.35	15%	PG*1.2	1.00
222	Luke Fischer #40	Marquette	6.09	BE	4.68	12%	C*1	1.30
371	Haanif Cheatham #25	Marquette	5.00	BE	4.23	14%	SG*1.1	1.08
544	JaJuan Johnson #23	Marquette	3.95	BE	3.95	16%	SF*1	1.00

Based on Value Add 3.0 we know that Luke Fischer improves Marquette's points per 100 trips by 4.68 (almost all on offense right now). He is worth an outstanding 130 points per 100 trips down the court. However, Fischer is only getting 12% of Marquette's overall possessions (on the court for 68% of minutes multiplied by 18% of possessions when on the court equals 12%). Based on Dean Oliver's charts in "Basketball on Paper," we can estimate that Fischer would could impact Marquette's scores by 1.3 times as many points (far right factor) if he could get the ball a solid 16% of all possessions in a game, which calculates to a potential Value of 6.09 points - the 222nd best rating in all of basketball.

We do also monitor the average performance by possession each season. While we list the five traditional positions (Point Guard, Shooting Guard, Small Forward, Power Forward and Center) this position is calculated for each player based on four factors. First, a players assist rate is divided by his defensive rebound percentage, which gives an indication on if he plays more on the perimeter or underneath. The players height is also factored, and finally these factors are compared to all of his teammates so that each team has a pretty even distribution of minutes played at each of the five positions. If a team plays a four guard set, the player who spends the most time inside and/or is tallest is going to be considered a power forward for purposes of comparison to the other "No. 4" players on other teams.

So far this season the teams' three "forward/centers" are averaging about the same value over the 351 teams. Shooting guards rank almost 10% lower in the calculations than the front line players, and point guards rank almost 20% lower, so these players have their rankings further multiplied by 1.1 and 1.2 respectively to show how much they improve their team over a replacement player at the same possession.

The initial Value Add 3.0 Calculation is thus multiplied by the position factor and then the usage factor. If a player already has at least 16% of his team's possessions then he is considered to already be performing at his maximum level.
Therefore JuJuan Johnson's 3.95 ranking is not adjusted upward because he is already possession the ball 16% of the time Marquette has it (partly by coming up with his own steals). That is good enough for 544th in the country, placing him in the top 15% of all players.

Haanif Cheatham's 4.23 is increased slightly (*1.08) based on how much more he could contribute if he had the ball 16% of the time instead of 14%, but he also has that factor multiplied by 1.1 to account for his numbers being even more impressive as a shooting guard.

Now THAT was some fun basketball to watch!

The season is underway with a big opening season win against Vanderbilt and so we react (and in some cases overreact) to the results of the first game of the season. Does the starting line-up tell us anything? Is Sam Hauser for real? Will we ever lose again? All questions we ask ourselves and then answer. We also talk about whether this game gives any signal as to how Wojo has progressed as a coach. Once we soak up every ounce of enjoyment from the Vanderbilt result, we turn to the week ahead including the home opener against Howard, and match-ups against Michigan and Pitt/SMU in NYC. Even the resident podcast pessimist sees reason to believe a 4-0 start is possible. Then we get a little over our skis and mention the word ranking before finding sanity and closing out the podcast. Also, wish Joe (@joemccann3) a very happy birthday today! Enjoy the show. Download this episode (right click and save)

The season is nearly upon us, time to predict it

Marquette basketball is on the cusp of starting the 2016-17 so we're here to talk about it. First stop is to discuss and overreact to what we saw of the exhibition game against Rockhurst. As we talk about the game we also reference back to the "secret" scrimmage against Dayton from two weeks ago. We then talk about the first real game on the schedule, The Veteran's Classic at the US Naval Academy against Vanderbilt. We talk about what the game will look like and if we think Marquette prevails. With the first game prediction out of the way, we then prognosticate the entire season and compare it to the KenPom projections. While one of us is more optimistic than the other, we are both definitely on the positive side of the ledger for the season over all. To close out the projections and the episode we talk about who we think will be the MVP, Newcomer of the Year, and Breakout players this season. Let's get ready for some real basketball! Download this episode (right click and save)