First Big East win to get ready for the new year!

Podcast has been on a break for the holidays, somewhat unplanned but after the first big win of the Big East system, we're back to talk about Marquette basketball. We jump right in and talk about the victory over Georgetown this past Wednesday. As part of that discussion we highlight the outstanding performance of Markus Howard who, you may have heard, is only 17. We also chat about how the coaching staff seems to be finally getting the players into the roles they desire them so that the whole is greater than the parts. We also have to talk about JaJuan Johnson's post-game "observations" of Georgetown's defensive intensity and while we're having fun we talk about Wojo's interview of Markus Howard, which gave us a look into "fun" Wojo which we haven't really seen before (http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2016/12/29/wojciechowski-has-fun-howard-after-win/95948696/). As we transition to the upcoming games, we talk about whether Seton Hall is the same match up this year as last year. Additionally, going to Philadelphia and taking on the number 1 team in the country is going to be a tall ask for anyone. We break down what has to happen in each game for Marquette to give themselves a chance to win. Bottom line, this next week is going to be very tough for Marquette but if they can win at least one of them that leaves them on schedule to a top 5 Big East finish. It's going to be an interesting week for Marquette, let's see how this plays out together. Download this episode (right click and save)

53% Chance at Bid; Updated Top 50; JJJ Closing on MVP

A year ago I wrote that Marquette needed 23 wins to make the NCAA tournament and had a 3.2% chance of making the tournament. I will not recreate the math here, but using the same combination of RPI Forecast, MU needs only 20 total wins this year (season and/or Big East tournament) and has a 54 percent chance at a bid.

I ran an extremely detailed effort today to review all player changes and other factors, and rank MU as having the 43rd best chance at making the tournament (see top 50 here).

The two impact performances vs. Georgetown resulted in Marquette becoming on of only eight teams with five players in the top 10% of all players, and JuJuan Johnson (worth 6.50 points per game) almost taking over first place from Luke Fischer (6.57).

Nat'l Rnk	Top 10% of all players	Pt Value
225	Luke Fischer #40	6.57
230	JaJuan Johnson #23	6.50
384	Haanif Cheatham #25	5.43
396	Sam Hauser #10	5.36
411	Markus Howard #0	5.25

There are now 4,123 players rated in www.valueaddbasketball.com, leaving Howard just in the top 10 percent - and keep in mind players get a ZERO when they miss a game.

The only other teams with that balance are Arizona, Clemson, Duke, Louisville, UNC, Purdue and SMU.

A 50% better chance of making the tournament than last year is a nice Christmas Present.

Georgetown's two All-Big East Players Next Up; MU one of Few Teams with 4 in Top 10%

The Georgetown Hoyas will be the first to visit after Christmas, and they bring two of the top six Big East players in Rodney Pryor and LJ Peak.

Marquette counters with balance. Markus Howard might be be in the top 10% of all Value Add players (top 400) if not for the concussion, and even without him Marquette is one of only 22 teams with four players in the top 10 percent at www.valueaddbasketball.com. MU joins fellow Big East teams Butler, Seton Hall and Villanova as well as the ACC's Clemson, Duke and North Carolina; the American's Cincinnati and SMU; the Big Ten's Indiana, Michigan, Purdue and Wisconsin; the Big 12s Baylor and Texas Tech; the MVC's Wichita St.; the Pac 12s Oregon, UCLA and USC; the SEC's Kentucky and South Carolina; and finally the WCC's Gonzaga.

While we will need to clean up the headers, Value Add also now indicates when an injured player will return (Gone if left team, Sea if out for season, or the month they will return) and how many games they have played. Remember that any time a player misses a game his Value Add ranking for that game is 0.0, so Bradley Hayes for Georgetown has a Value Add ranking of 1.50, but when you notice he has played only 8 games while his teammates have played 12, you realize he would be worth about 50% more (2.25 Value Add) if he has not had to sit out the first four games.

Rnk	Player	VA4D	Team	Pos/Inj	Ht	Class
1	Josh Hart, No.3	16.2	Villanova	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 5"	Sr
17	JP Macura, No.55	10.9	Xavier	PG*1.2*12Gms	6' 5"	Jr
28	Rodney Pryor, No.23	10.3	Georgetown	C*1*12Gms	6' 5"	Sr
31	Mikal Bridges, No.25	10.2	Villanova	SF*1*12Gms	6' 7"	So
43	Trevon Bluiett, No.5	9.7	Xavier	SF*1*12Gms	6' 6"	Jr
44	LJ Peak, No.0	9.7	Georgetown	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 5"	Jr
65	Khyri Thomas, No.2	8.9	Creighton	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 3"	So
69	Shamorie Ponds, No.2	8.8	St. John's	SG*1.1*13Gms	6' 1"	Fr
73	Andrew Chrabascz, No.45	8.8	Butler	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 7"	Sr
92	Jalen Brunson, No.1	8.3	Villanova	PG*1.2*12Gms	6' 2"	So
95	Emmitt Holt, No.15	8.2	Providence	SG*1.1*11Gms	6' 7"	Jr
101	Edmond Sumner, No.4	8.1	Xavier	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 6"	So
115	Tyler Lewis, No.1	7.9	Butler	PG*1.2*12Gms	5' 11"	Sr
124	Justin Patton, No.23	7.7	Creighton	C*1*12Gms	7' 0	Fr
152	Jalen Lindsey, No.21	7.3	Providence	C*1*12Gms	6' 7"	Jr
171	Khadeen Carrington, No.0	7.1	Seton Hall	SG*1.1*11Gms	6' 4"	Jr
191	Rodney Bullock, No.5	6.8	Providence	SF*1*12Gms	6' 8"	Jr
223	Kris Jenkins, No.2	6.6	Villanova	PF*1*12Gms	6' 6"	Sr
237	Luke Fischer, No.40	6.4	Marquette	C*1*12Gms	6' 11"	Sr
263	Angel Delgado, No.31	6.2	Seton Hall	C*1*11Gms	6' 10"	Jr
274	Kelan Martin, No.30	6.2	Butler	PF*1*12Gms	6' 7"	Jr
287	Haanif Cheatham, No.25	6.1	Marquette	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 5"	So
298	Jessie Govan, No.15	6	Georgetown	PF*1*12Gms	6' 10"	So
302	JaJuan Johnson, No.23	6	Marquette	SF*1*12Gms	6' 5"	Sr
354	Myles Powell, No.13	5.7	Seton Hall	SG*1.1*11Gms	6' 2"	Fr
359	Desi Rodriguez, No.20	5.6	Seton Hall	SF*1*11Gms	6' 6"	Jr
381	Tyler Wideman, No.4	5.5	Butler	C*1*12Gms	6' 8"	Jr
382	Maurice Watson, No.10	5.5	Creighton	PG*1.2*12Gms	5' 10"	Sr
392	Sam Hauser, No.10	5.4	Marquette	PF*1*12Gms	6' 6"	Fr
415	Marcus Foster, No.0	5.3	Creighton	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 3"	Jr
479	Eli Cain, No.11	4.9	DePaul	SF*1*12Gms	6' 6"	So
482	Kamar Baldwin, No.3	4.9	Butler	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 0	Fr
527	Darryl Reynolds, No.45	4.6	Villanova	C*1*12Gms	6' 9"	Sr
528	RaShid Gaston, No.35	4.6	Xavier	C*1*12Gms	6' 9"	Sr
609	Markus Howard, No.0	4.2	Marquette	PG*1.2*11Gms	5' 11"	Fr
616	Avery Woodson, No.0	4.2	Butler	PG*1.2*12Gms	6' 2"	Sr
621	Donte DiVincenzo, No.10	4.2	Villanova	SF*1*12Gms	6' 5"	So
672	Kyron Cartwright, No.24	4	Providence	PG*1.2*12Gms	5' 11"	Jr
733	Marcus LoVett, No.15	3.7	St. John's	PG*1.2*10Gms	6' 0	Fr
742	Tre'Darius McCallum, No.10	3.7	DePaul	PF*1*12Gms	6' 7"	Jr
780	Toby Hegner, No.32	3.5	Creighton	C*1*12Gms	6' 10"	Jr
817	Nate Fowler, No.51	3.4	Butler	PF*1*12Gms	6' 10"	So
846	Tariq Owens, No.11	3.3	St. John's	C*1*13Gms	6' 11"	So
847	Madison Jones, No.30	3.3	Seton Hall	PG*1.2*11Gms	6' 2"	Sr
894	Cole Huff, No.13	3.1	Creighton	SF*1*12Gms	6' 8"	Sr
946	Andrew Rowsey, No.30	3	Marquette	PG*1.2*12Gms	5' 10"	Jr
969	Eric Paschall, No.4	2.9	Villanova	C*1*12Gms	6' 7"	So
1034	Michael Nzei, No.1	2.7	Seton Hall	C*1*11Gms	6' 8"	So
1037	Ryan Fazekas, No.35	2.7	Providence	PF*1*12Gms	6' 8"	So
1132	Sean O'Mara, No.54	2.5	Xavier	C*1*12Gms	6' 10"	Jr
1183	Duane Wilson, No.1	2.3	Marquette	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 2"	Jr

Holidays are upon us, let's hope Marquette can unwrap a new defense

Welcome back to the Scrambled Eggs podcast, holiday edition. It's a holiday edition in that we mention Christmas at some point. Other than that the focus is on Marquette basketball: So what happened. First we talk about the most recent news, Traci Carter deciding to leave the program at semester end. Given our proclivity to overreact in the past, this is a somewhat measured discussion about the impact of Traci leaving and how Marquette basketball moves forward from here. It also generates a discussion about roster turnover and what Wojo may do with 3 more open scholarships for next year (Wally, Sandy and Traci scholarships). We then turn to the terrible result at the end of #BadgerHateWeek with a convincing drubbing of Marquette by the hated red menace. We talk about what happened in the game, what it means for the season as a whole, and most critically what the hell is up with the defense. We have a detailed discussion about Marquette's defense and how they move forward into the Big East with a boat we can row really fast(offense) but is leaking like a sieve(defense). We close out with thoughts on the Big East and what challenges face Marquette come December 28th. As always we hope you enjoy the pod and hope everyone enjoys the holidays with their loved ones and Marquette basketball. Download this episode (right click and save)

3 Freshman in American have hit 20+ 3-pointers at 50% clip, and 2 of them are ...

Marquette is one of 14 teams with more than one freshman in the top 20% of all players according to Value Add Basketball. Kentucky has four, while Arizona, Auburn, Florida State, Maryland and Miami FL have three.

Sam Hauser (600th of 4000+) and Markus Howard (682nd and skyrocketing) let MU join UCLA, Michigan State, Virginia, Appalachian State, St. John's Penn State and Drexel with two elite freshman.

During Saturday's loss to Wisconsin, Sam Hauser was finally stopped, but the other incredible freshman three-point shooter was incredible again.

When it comes to hitting threes, Marquette's freshman lap the field. There are only three freshman in the country who have hit at least 20 three-pointers at a 50% clip - MUs two stars and Hofstra's Eli Pemberton.

Josh Hart is the top ranked player in any of the Power 6 Conferences in both Value Add and www.kenpom.com at this point.

Here are the top 10 freshman three-point shooters among those who have hit at least 20 this season.

Freshman with 20+ 3PM	3PM-3PA	Pct
Eli Pemberton, No.5, Hofstra	21-41	51.2%
Sam Hauser, No.10, Marquette	23-45	51.1%
Markus Howard, No.0, Marquette	21-42	50.0%
Kari Jonsson, No.12, Drexel	22-46	47.8%
Lauri Markkanen, No.10, Arizona	21-44	47.7%
Isaiah Ross, No.2, UMKC	20-43	46.5%
Lonzo Ball, No.2, UCLA	24-53	45.3%
Marcus LoVett, No.15, St. John's	20-45	44.4%
Shamorie Ponds, No.2, St. John's	31-70	44.3%
Myles Powell, No.13, Seton Hall	22-53	41.5%

The team delivered important wins, now we can focus on #BadgerHateWeek

The most hateful time of year is here and we're excited to talk about it. However, first we have to talk about the two wins Marquette got this week, on the road against Georgia and at home against a frisky Fresno State. We talk about the team's performance in both games, especially the freshman, Sam Hauser and Markus Howard. After spending time breaking down critical performances and concerns over Haanif Cheatham's slump, we jump into #BadgerHateWeek The discussion covers the ins and outs of Saturday's game against our hated rival, including keys to the games, player match ups, and predictions. We have a lot of fun hating on the red menace, we hope you enjoy it with us. Ring Out Ahoya! Download this episode (right click and save)

Current Forecast: Play-in Game in Dayton then Wisconsin in NCAA 1st Round

As Marquette gets ready for the Wisconsin Badgers, and interesting forecast played out on the RPI Forecast site. If bids were passed out exclusively by the projected final RPI for each school, with automatic bids accounted for, Marquette would be the third from final at-large bid.

The last four in play in Dayton in the opening week, and under this scenario if every favored team kept winning except for Marquette, the following would be Marquette's path:

Dayton: (12) Wake Forest vs. (12) Marquette

1st Round: Marquette vs. (5) Wisconsin again (the third best 5-seed on the s-curve)

2nd Round: Marquette vs. (4) Saint Mary's

Regional Semi: Marquette vs. (1) Kansas

Regional Championship: Marquette vs. (2) Baylor

Final Four: Marquette vs. (1) North Carolina

National Championship: Marquette vs. (overall No. 1) Villanova

The other Big East teams would be:

Butler (last 3-seed)
Xavier (1st 4-seed)
Creighton (last 5-seed)

With Marquette as the 5th and Final Big East Seed:

Providence (first 2-seed in NIT)

Seton Hall (top 4-seed in NIT)

And Georgetown missing the NIT by three spots though it would be more due to automatic bids for regular season winners that did not win their tournaments.

Obviously this projection could go way up or down based on Saturday against the Badgers.

All filled up on cupcakes, now things get intersting

We're back with a new podcast after we've all fattened up on cupcakes. We spend some time talking about the three games that MU most recently played to decide if there is anything we can gleam from the performance of the team after the sub-optimal performance in NYC. Then, we get into a few impromptu #ScrambledQs starting with a discussion of the starting line-up. That discussion turns to the hot #mubb social media question, what's up with Katin Reinhardt and is he salvageable. We also spend some more time talking about the point guard situation and how fluid it continues to be. That conversation leads to the topic of significance, the road game against Georgia, breaking down how Marquette could win and whether we think they will. We also talk about how important the Georgia game in the context of the season as prompted by Paint Touches. We also talk a little bit about the trap game, Fresno State, and what to be concerned about. We close out with a couple of fun #ScrambledQs: @MUBBNation wanted to know which one of us had the better jumper and @PaintTouches wants to know if we still hate Buzz and/or Crean and if so why? Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Georgia's Maten (6th best), Nova's Hart (12th) toughest MU Opponents

For the first time in four years, Marquette has three players in the 90th percentile (top 400) most valuable players in the country with Luke Fischer (189th), Haanif Cheatham (261st) and JuJuan Johnson (313th). MU fans were spoiled when MU did it from 2006 to 2013, and in 2003 all five MU starters made it including No. 3 Dwyane Wade and No. 39 Travis Diener being in the 99th percentile, or top 1% of all players.

Below is a list of the top 50 players at Value Add Basketball that you will see if you watch the rest of Marquette's games. While Villanova's Josh Hart is making his case for Player of the Year as the 12th most valuable to date, MU faces an even more valuable opponent Sunday in 6-foot-8 Yante Maten of Georgia. Maten scored 30 points against Kansas and could not miss in the first half, and he is ranked among national leaders in blocked shots and rebounds and actually leads the Bulldogs in steals.

The "Actual Value" shows how many points per 100 trips the player is worth to his team per 100 offensive and defensive trips (Value Add 3.0), while the "If Go To" shows how many they would project to be worth if they received the ball at least 16% of the time (Value Add 4.0).

Below I list players by their actual value, but right now www.valueaddbasketball.com ranks by the projected value:

Rnk	Player	Team	Ht	Actual Val	If GoTo
6	Yante Maten, #1	Georgia	6'8"	13.34	13.34
12	Josh Hart, #3	Villanova	6'5"	12.55	13.80
19	Rodney Pryor, #23	Georgetown	6'5"	12.13	12.13
29	Rodney Bullock, #5	Providence	6'8"	11.71	11.71
37	Ethan Happ, #22	Wisconsin	6'10"	11.17	11.17
40	JP Macura, #55	Xavier	6'5"	10.98	13.18
45	Mikal Bridges, #25	Villanova	6'7"	10.75	13.95
51	Eli Cain, #11	DePaul	6'6"	10.60	10.60
83	Khadeen Carrington, #0	Seton Hall	6'4"	9.65	10.62
90	Keenan Simmons, #45	SIU Edwardsville	6'6"	9.57	15.79
121	Khyri Thomas, #2	Creighton	6'3"	8.91	11.92
140	Jahmel Taylor, #5	Fresno St.	6'0	8.55	13.27
153	Josh Nebo, #32	St. Francis PA	6'8"	8.32	9.34
181	LJ Peak, #0	Georgetown	6'5"	7.97	8.77
189	Luke Fischer, #40	Marquette	6'11"	7.84	10.02
193	Shamorie Ponds, #2	St. John's	6'1"	7.78	8.56
215	Kris Jenkins, #2	Villanova	6'6"	7.57	7.57
220	Trevon Bluiett, #5	Xavier	6'6"	7.54	7.54
227	JJ Frazier, #30	Georgia	5'10"	7.42	8.90
246	Andrew Chrabascz, #45	Butler	6'7"	7.23	9.06
261	Haanif Cheatham, #25	Marquette	6'5"	7.11	8.33
275	Justin Patton, #23	Creighton	7'0	7.04	10.06
277	Edmond Sumner, #4	Xavier	6'6"	7.03	7.73
289	Cullen Russo, #13	Fresno St.	6'9"	6.95	8.17
298	Keith Braxton, #13	St. Francis PA	6'4"	6.87	6.87
305	Bronson Koenig, #24	Wisconsin	6'3"	6.81	7.49
313	JaJuan Johnson, #23	Marquette	6'5"	6.77	6.82
316	Marcus LoVett, #15	St. John's	6'0	6.75	8.09
324	Nigel Hayes, #10	Wisconsin	6'8"	6.70	6.70
376	Kamar Baldwin, #3	Butler	6'0	6.37	10.32
392	Emmitt Holt, #15	Providence	6'7"	6.25	6.88
407	Tre'Darius McCallum, #10	DePaul	6'7"	6.14	6.66
433	Jalen Brunson, #1	Villanova	6'2"	6.00	7.20
434	Myles Powell, #13	Seton Hall	6'2"	6.00	7.81
486	Tyler Lewis, #1	Butler	5'11"	5.71	9.55
535	Desi Rodriguez, #20	Seton Hall	6'6"	5.45	5.45
603	Jalen Lindsey, #21	Providence	6'7"	5.13	8.31
612	Avery Woodson, #0	Butler	6'2"	5.06	9.30
613	Donte DiVincenzo, #10	Villanova	6'5"	5.06	7.78
633	Marcus Foster, #0	Creighton	6'3"	4.93	5.43
652	Tyler Wideman, #4	Butler	6'8"	4.84	7.23
659	Sean O'Mara, #54	Xavier	6'10"	4.81	8.13
660	Darrick Wood, #1	DePaul	6'5"	4.80	8.55
680	Zak Showalter, #3	Wisconsin	6'3"	4.72	9.04
716	Darryl Reynolds, #45	Villanova	6'9"	4.52	7.71
757	Sam Hauser, #10	Marquette	6'7"	4.33	7.81
762	Kelan Martin, #30	Butler	6'7"	4.32	4.32
792	Angel Delgado, #31	Seton Hall	6'10"	4.19	4.19
810	Maurice Watson, #10	Creighton	5'10"	4.12	4.94
826	Michael Nzei, #1	Seton Hall	6'8"	4.05	7.04