No NBA-ready Players Yet, but 3 MU Players stayed after being NBA-ready

Sam Hauser and Markus Howard both project to be worth 5.00-5.99 runs to Marquette this year. The good news is that is in that nice spot for college fans where it is an elite level but not enough to start the "they will not consider leaving early for the NBA are they?" Not that there is an NBA talk about these two great rising sophmores, but having just finished crunching the numbers they are about two points short of where a player needs to get to have a better than 50/50 chance of making the NBA.

I crunched the numbers for 20,767 players in the www.valueaddbasketball.com database, and found the Value Add at which a player has better than a 50/50 chance to make the NBA is 7.60. Here is the breakdown of a player's chance of making the NBA once they hit a certain range:

Best Value Add	Players	Made NBA	% made it
0 to 0.99	10,640	10	0.1%
1 to 1.99	4142	20	0.5%
2 to 2.99	2010	31	1.5%
3 to 3.99	1353	48	3.5%
4 to 4.99	982	100	10.2%
5 to 5.99	664	129	19.4%
6 to 6.99	428	124	29.0%
7 to 7.99	268	124	46.3%
8 to 8.99	157	116	73.9%
9 or higher	123	107	87.0%
All Players	20,767	809	3.9%

When you dig deeper, freshmen can come in above 6.00 and be one-and-dones because NBA clubs know they have more upside at their young age.

Certainly several Marquette players made the NBA without ever hitting the 7.60 mark, and there are many other factors I cover in this study. However, the four players who have exceeded that mark at Marquette all made it and three of the four actually could have made the NBA a year earlier.

Jae Crowder's junior season he was still about a point short of NBA-level with a 6.54 Value Add. He easily passed the mark his final season at 12.43.

However, Dwyane Wade (11.59), Travis Diener (10.32) and Jimmy Butler (8.96) were all well beyond the Value Add that indicates a player is ready for the NBA in the year BEFORE they actually left.

The fact that I had Butler ranked well ahead of the great Lazar Hayward in Butler's JUNIOR year was was first compelled the Chicago Bulls to call and meet about Value Add, but how wonderful he was already adding his senior season in which he went  into UConn and beat Kemba Walker!

Fresh Run Gives MU 3 of Top 18 Big East Players; Ranks All Since 2001-02 Season

We did a pretty massive update of www.valueaddbasketball.com that entailed rating all players going back to 2001-02, but also fine tuning the projection adjustments for how much players should improve between seasons, and if they get on NBA prospect lists. If you are into the actual calculations, I have other links below this list, but for those of you who just want a quick look at where our players rank against the best of the Big East - here are the projected conference leaders.

Please don't hesitate to make any corrections. Tracking thousands of players through transfers, NBA declarations and returns to college etc., this was a massive run. We also ran over 61,000 players seasons, so correct away by calling me at 404.606.3163 or emailing pudnerjohn@gmail.com with any corrections. Here is the best of the Big East based on projections:

Natl	Big East Player	Team	Value Add
11	Jalen Brunson 1	Villanova	9.16
15	Mikal Bridges 25	Villanova	8.78
25	Khyri Thomas 2	Creighton	8.21
27	Trevon Bluiett 5	Xavier	8.17
28	Shamorie Ponds 2	St. John's	8.13
44	JP Macura 55	Xavier	7.38
67	Khadeen Carrington 0	Seton Hall	6.9
78	Angel Delgado	Seton Hall	6.77
101	Jalen Lindsey 21	Providence	6.49
108	Emmitt Holt 15	Providence	6.35
109	Kelan Martin 30	Butler	6.34
148	Desi Rodriguez 20	Seton Hall	5.85
156	Andrew Rowsey 30	Marquette	5.8
161	Kamar Baldwin 3	Butler	5.75
162	Rodney Bullock 5	Providence	5.75
189	Donte DiVincenzo 10	Villanova	5.47
194	Sam Hauser 10	Marquette	5.43
200	Markus Howard 0	Marquette	5.36
228	Marcus LoVett 15	St. John's	5.17
234	Kyron Cartwright 24	Providence	5.13

After our massive update, the website now includes the projections for 3,291 players for the 2017-18 season (click here and type 2018 for year, or type 2019 to look at the 313 players who will next play in 2018-19). It also includes a total of 61,019 past player seasons (click here for all of those seasons going back to 2001-02, then search notes for "nba" to limit to only the 2,195 played by players who went onto the NBA).

If you are curious about how we project player values or likelihood of NBA stardom, you can check any of the following posts:

Value Add Group 1: Top 2017-18 Freshmen and How Many Points Each is Worth
Value Add Group 2: Top Returning Sophomores, Juniors and Seniors
Value Add Group 3: Top-ranked Transfers
Value Add Group 4: Top JUCO Transfers: Projected Value for 2018, and Best Since 2011
Value Add Group 5: NBA Prospects for Thursday's Draft

Now I would challenge everyone to look at the blind test of Pomeroy stats of two All-American players and tell me which is better:

	ORtg	eFG%	OR%	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk%	Stl%	FT	2-Pt	3-Pt	Team Defense
	115.2	51.5	7.1	15.4	31.1	17.6	4.2	4	78%	52%	32%	101st
	122.1	56.8	7	20.7	13.5	9.7	3.1	4.3	74%	60%	35%	14th

I believe most would agree that the second player was better statistically. Pomeroy says the 2nd player gets his team about seven points more per 100 possessions, so statistically he is a better offensive player. Defense is tougher in a blind test, but the bottom player was part of a much better defense (the 14th best in the country compared to a very mediocre 101st best), and the second player is better at steals and defensive rebounds, while the first is better at blocked shots. 

Let me add that the second player faced much tougher competition up until the NCAA tournament.

I go through all this to avoid the pain of the next graph. Yes, the bottom line is Jae Crowder's final season and statistically he was slightly better than Dwyane Wade, the top line. I wanted to show these stats before listing Marquette's all-time Value Add leaders below because Crowder has a slight edge after all the fine tuning as we ran through the 60,000+ seasons.

It doesn't mean I would rank him higher subjectively. When I wrote The Ultimate Hoops Guide: Marquette Basketball, I ranked Wade first and I still would based on his tournament run to the Final Four, what he has done in the NBA etc. But from a pure statistical perspective over the entire season Crowder was slightly more valuable. If I updated the book today, I would nudge Crowder ahead of the great Bo Ellis as the No. 2 player.

Wade beating two of the top three teams in the country to take Marquette to the Final Four gets him the No. 1 all-time nod subjectively, but statistically over the course of the season Crowder was slightly better at the college level and that is reflected in the all-time Value Add ratings in which they both made Marquette about 12 points better per game than if they were replaced by a mediocre replacement player. 

With all that defense in place, the 2018 projections give three current Marquette players a spot among the Top 30 players to play at Marquette since Wade's two seasons. Click here for all 61,019 player seasons, and which 2,195 made the NBA.

Rnk	Player	VA Pts/Game	Year	Conf	Ht	Class
1	Jae Crowder	12.43	2012	BE	6'6	4 Sr
2	Dwyane Wade	11.59	2003	CUSA	6'4	2 So
3	Travis Diener	10.32	2004	BE	6'1	3 Jr
4	Travis Diener	9.74	2005	BE	6'1	4 Sr
5	Jimmy Butler	8.96	2010	BE	6'6	3 Jr
6	Dwyane Wade	8.53	2002	CUSA	6'4	1 Fr
7	Steve Novak	8.27	2006	BE	6'10	4 Sr
8	Lazar Hayward	7.46	2010	BE	6'6	4 Sr
9	Jimmy Butler	7.15	2011	BE	6'7	4 Sr
10	Wesley Matthews	6.85	2009	BE	6'5	4 Sr
11	Davante Gardner	6.7	2013	BE	6'8	3 Jr
12	Jae Crowder	6.54	2011	BE	6'6	3 Jr
13	Travis Diener	6.4	2003	CUSA	6'1	2 So
14	Robert Jackson	6.32	2003	CUSA	6'10	4 Sr
15	Dominic James	6.31	2006	BE	5'11	1 Fr
16	Cordell Henry	6.27	2002	CUSA	5'10	4 Sr
17	Jerel McNeal	6.26	2009	BE	6'3	4 Sr
18	Jerel McNeal	6.21	2008	BE	6'3	3 Jr
19	Dominic James	6.11	2008	BE	5'11	3 Jr
20	Lazar Hayward	6.11	2009	BE	6'6	3 Jr
21	Darius Johnson-Odom	5.88	2012	BE	6'2	4 Sr
22	Maurice Acker	5.84	2010	BE	5'8	4 Sr
23	Andrew Rowsey 30	5.8	2018	BE	5'10	4 Sr
24	Travis Diener	5.7	2002	CUSA	6'1	1 Fr
25	Lazar Hayward	5.62	2008	BE	6'6	2 So
26	Matt Carlino 13	5.6	2015	BE	6'2	4 Sr
27	Luke Fischer 40	5.5	2017	BE	6'11	4 Sr
28	Davante Gardner	5.46	2014	BE	6'8	4 Sr
29	Sam Hauser 10	5.43	2018	BE	6'6	2 So
30	Markus Howard 0	5.36	2018	BE	5'11	2 So
31	Steve Novak	5.08	2005	BE	6'10	3 Jr
32	Dominic James	4.85	2007	BE	5'11	2 So
33	Andrew Rowsey 30	4.8	2017	BE	5'10	3 Jr
34	Henry Ellenson 13	4.8	2016	BE	6'11	1 Fr
35	Jamil Wilson	4.59	2013	BE	6'7	3 Jr
36	Wesley Matthews	4.44	2007	BE	6'5	2 So
37	Sam Hauser 10	4.43	2017	BE	6'6	1 Fr
38	Scott Merritt	4.42	2003	CUSA	6'10	3 Jr
39	Wesley Matthews	4.41	2008	BE	6'5	3 Jr
40	Vander Blue	4.4	2013	BE	6'4	3 Jr
41	Markus Howard 0	4.36	2017	BE	5'11	1 Fr
42	Luke Fischer 40	4.36	2016	BE	6'11	3 Jr
43	Dominic James	4.12	2009	BE	5'11	4 Sr
44	JaJuan Johnson 23	4.1	2017	BE	6'5	4 Sr
45	Joe Chapman	4.1	2006	BE	6'7	1 Fr
46	Jerel McNeal	3.97	2007	BE	6'3	2 So
47	Davante Gardner	3.96	2012	BE	6'8	2 So
48	David Cubillan	3.9	2007	BE	6'1	1 Fr
49	Darius Johnson-Odom	3.88	2011	BE	6'2	3 Jr
50	Steve Novak	3.87	2004	BE	6'10	2 So