Sam Hauser and Markus Howard both project to be worth 5.00-5.99 runs to Marquette this year. The good news is that is in that nice spot for college fans where it is an elite level but not enough to start the "they will not consider leaving early for the NBA are they?" Not that there is an NBA talk about these two great rising sophmores, but having just finished crunching the numbers they are about two points short of where a player needs to get to have a better than 50/50 chance of making the NBA.
I crunched the numbers for 20,767 players in the www.valueaddbasketball.com database, and found the Value Add at which a player has better than a 50/50 chance to make the NBA is 7.60. Here is the breakdown of a player's chance of making the NBA once they hit a certain range:
| Best Value Add | Players | Made NBA | % made it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 0.99 | 10,640 | 10 | 0.1% |
| 1 to 1.99 | 4142 | 20 | 0.5% |
| 2 to 2.99 | 2010 | 31 | 1.5% |
| 3 to 3.99 | 1353 | 48 | 3.5% |
| 4 to 4.99 | 982 | 100 | 10.2% |
| 5 to 5.99 | 664 | 129 | 19.4% |
| 6 to 6.99 | 428 | 124 | 29.0% |
| 7 to 7.99 | 268 | 124 | 46.3% |
| 8 to 8.99 | 157 | 116 | 73.9% |
| 9 or higher | 123 | 107 | 87.0% |
| All Players | 20,767 | 809 | 3.9% |
When you dig deeper, freshmen can come in above 6.00 and be one-and-dones because NBA clubs know they have more upside at their young age.
Certainly several Marquette players made the NBA without ever hitting the 7.60 mark, and there are many other factors I cover in this study. However, the four players who have exceeded that mark at Marquette all made it and three of the four actually could have made the NBA a year earlier.
Jae Crowder's junior season he was still about a point short of NBA-level with a 6.54 Value Add. He easily passed the mark his final season at 12.43.
However, Dwyane Wade (11.59), Travis Diener (10.32) and Jimmy Butler (8.96) were all well beyond the Value Add that indicates a player is ready for the NBA in the year BEFORE they actually left.
The fact that I had Butler ranked well ahead of the great Lazar Hayward in Butler's JUNIOR year was was first compelled the Chicago Bulls to call and meet about Value Add, but how wonderful he was already adding his senior season in which he went into UConn and beat Kemba Walker!
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