If Bids Went to Players Instead of Teams: Rowsey v. Bridges and Hauser v. UCLA's Welsh

As I ran the Value Add Basketball Numbers to finish out the 2017 calendar year, one thing became apparent - if the season ended today Oklahoma's Trae Young would be the best college player OF THE CENTURY, which clearly gives Oklahoma the best athletic duo of the century since Baker Mayfield takes the field against Georgia today as one of the top five football players of the century.

Last season I insisted Sindarius Thornwell of South Carolina was the best player in the country and then Marquette drew him in the opening round - but Young is much better than him and after going into #10 TCU and upsetting them 90-89 with a 39 point, 14 assist game, these guy edges out even Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant for the most dominant college player of the century based on the history Value Add rankings.

This made me think about just how prohibitive a favorite Young would be if the NCAA bids were for a one-on-one tournament and you could somehow factor in his assists, which obviously necessitate playing on a team.

I went ahead and sent out bids to both the NIT and NCAA based on the new Value Add numbers, but also giving the best player in each conference an automatic bid, and ended up with great match-ups for Marquette's two top 100 players (with the streaky Markus Howard out of the top 100 for the moment.

Of course, Michigan State fans will cry foul that Value Add ratings would currently place Andrew Rowsey as the slighly favored No. 4 seed in the NIT Western bracket against their National Player of the Year hopeful. However, Rowsey has been worth an extra 7.33 points per game to Marquette this year to an almost identical 7.27 for Miles Bridges. Great players tend to rank lower earlier in a season of blowouts since the minutes are spread.

A Georgetown fan texted me after Saturday's game to ask, "Who is Andrew Rowsey and give me one good reason I should not hate him." While his defense is not great (note he gets a "D" for defensive rebounding, C for a few blocked shots, and B for steals) he and the rest of the team have improved enough that he is currently the 67th most valuable player in the country, and therefore would be in an at-large "player" March Madness except that we gave the smaller conferences one team each. Bridges will shoot up now facing tougher Big Ten opponents, but when www.kenpom.com says Bridges has only been the best player in 1 of 15 games so far, and Value Add adjusts for strength of opponents (the Spartans last six opponents have been ranked 310, 106, 295, 238, 302, 330).

Seed	NIT Midwest Seeds	Team	Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game	Def Grades
1	Jaylen Barford #0	Arkansas	7.53	Reb Blk Stl=C C B
2	Trevon Bluiett #5	Xavier	7.48	Reb Blk Stl=B C D
3	Udoka Azubuike #35	Kansas	7.44	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
4	Andrew Rowsey #30	Marquette	7.33	Reb Blk Stl=D C B
5	Miles Bridges #22	Michigan St.	7.27	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
6	Jessie Govan #15	Georgetown	7.13	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
7	Nick Ward #44	Michigan St.	7.04	Reb Blk Stl=A A F
8	Zhaire Smith #2	Texas Tech	7.01	Reb Blk Stl=C A A

OK, so I cheated a little and created one NIT play-in match-up since Hauser technically missed the last NIT spot as the 87 best player in basketball. This would put him up against Shannon Evans of the amazing Arizona State team of Bobby Hurley, for the right to play the top seed in the NIT West in big man Thomas Welsh of UCLA. As good as Hauser's all-around offense is every day, completely in the flow of the game, I also wanted to point out that he is one of the few that has a strong ranking in all three defensive categories, getting a "B" (top 40%) in Defensive Rebounding, Blocked Shots and Steals.

Seed	NIT West Seeds	Team	Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game	Def Grades
1	Thomas Welsh #40	UCLA	7.54	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
2	Elijah Bryant #3	Brigham Young	7.49	Reb Blk Stl=A B A
3	Shake Milton #1	Southern Methodist	7.47	Reb Blk Stl=C B A
4	Caleb Martin #10	Nevada	7.37	Reb Blk Stl=B C B
5	Justin Bibbins #1	Utah	7.23	Reb Blk Stl=D D B
6	Rob Gray #32	Houston	7.18	Reb Blk Stl=D D C
7	Chimezie Metu #4	Southern California	7.02	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
8-playin	Shannon Evans #11	Arizona St.	6.97	Reb Blk Stl=D D B
8-playin	Sam Hauser #10	Marquette	6.95	Reb Blk Stl=B B B

Fair to note that Ethan Happ had an All-American ranking until Matt Heldt slowed him down, and he has slipped a bit and would place as an NIT player at this stage. Max Strus of DePaul is looking strong after the incredible scare they put into Xavier.

Seed	NIT East Seeds	Team	Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game	Def Grades
1	Donte Grantham #32	Clemson	7.5	Reb Blk Stl=B B D
2	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #22	Kentucky	7.48	Reb Blk Stl=D C A
3	Ethan Happ #22	Wisconsin	7.42	Reb Blk Stl=A B B
4	Tyus Battle #25	Syracuse	7.34	Reb Blk Stl=F C A
5	Max Strus #31	DePaul	7.24	Reb Blk Stl=D B A
6	Jared Terrell #32	Rhode Island	7.13	Reb Blk Stl=D F A
7	Tony Carr #10	Penn St.	7.07	Reb Blk Stl=C D B
8	Kevin Huerter #4	Maryland	7	Reb Blk Stl=C B D

Finally these would be our NIT bids to the south.

Seed	NIT South Seeds	Team	Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game	Def Grades
1	Jeremiah Martin #3	Memphis	7.56	Reb Blk Stl=C B A
2	Jordan McLaughlin #11	Southern California	7.49	Reb Blk Stl=D C A
3	Matt Rafferty #32	Furman	7.41	Reb Blk Stl=A B A
4	Melvin Frazier #35	Tulane	7.29	Reb Blk Stl=B B A
5	Wendell Carter #34	Duke	7.26	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
6	Terance Mann #14	Florida St.	7.11	Reb Blk Stl=C C B
7	Tyler Rawson #21	Utah	7.01	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
8	Marcquise Reed #2	Clemson	7	Reb Blk Stl=B F A

Shifting to the top 68 players in the hypothetical NCAA one-on-one tournament, Villanova continues to have two of the top eight players in the country, and with no undefeated teams remaining they still look like the best in the country - not just the Big East. St. John's and Shamorie Ponds have slipped a little after an extremely hot start.

Seed	NCAA East Seeds	Team	Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game	Def Grades
1	Jalen Brunson #1	Villanova	10.44	Reb Blk Stl=D F B
2	Mikal Bridges #25	Villanova	9.83	Reb Blk Stl=B A A
3	Nick King #5	Middle Tennessee	9.61	Reb Blk Stl=A D D
4	Tookie Brown #4	Georgia Southern	9.29	Reb Blk Stl=C B A
5	Ajdin Penava #11	Marshall	8.9	Reb Blk Stl=A A A
6	Landry Shamet #11	Wichita St.	8.49	Reb Blk Stl=D C C
7	Fletcher Magee #3	Wofford	8.37	Reb Blk Stl=F D C
8	Zach Thomas #23	Bucknell	8.18	Reb Blk Stl=A B C
9	Shamorie Ponds #2	St. John's	8.06	Reb Blk Stl=B D A
10	Kevin Hervey #25	Texas Arlington	7.9	Reb Blk Stl=A B A
11	CJ Massinburg #5	Buffalo	7.85	Reb Blk Stl=B B C
12	Josh Reaves #23	Penn St.	7.74	Reb Blk Stl=D B A
13	Garrison Mathews #24	Lipscomb	7.51	Reb Blk Stl=C C B
14	Devin Cannady #3	Princeton	6.88	Reb Blk Stl=B D D
15	Joe Cremo #24	Albany	6.45	Reb Blk Stl=C D C
16	Isaiah Reese #13	Canisius	6.11	Reb Blk Stl=A F A

No freshman ever had a Value Add rating more than two points better than anyone else in the country. It is still a long season, but if Trae Young keeps this pace up he is the best college player of the century.

Seed	NCAA MWSeeds	Team	Value Add	Def Grades
1	Trae Young #11	Oklahoma	13.17	Reb Blk Stl=D C A
2	Bonzie Colson #35	Notre Dame	10.14	Reb Blk Stl=A A A
3	Gary Clark #11	Cincinnati	9.61	Reb Blk Stl=A A A
4	Devonte' Graham #4	Kansas	9.31	Reb Blk Stl=D D A
5	Justinian Jessup #3	Boise St.	8.7	Reb Blk Stl=B B B
6	Keita Bates-Diop #33	Ohio St.	8.53	Reb Blk Stl=A A B
7	Jordan Murphy #3	Minnesota	8.43	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
8	Anthony Cowan #1	Maryland	8.31	Reb Blk Stl=C D B
9	Josh Cunningham #0	Dayton	8	Reb Blk Stl=A B C
10	Dakota Mathias #31	Purdue	7.9	Reb Blk Stl=C C B
11	Cassius Winston #5	Michigan St.	7.85	Reb Blk Stl=C F B
12	James Thompson #2	Eastern Michigan	7.75	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
13	Blake Francis #3	Wagner	7.33	Reb Blk Stl=F D B
14	Scottie James #31	Liberty	6.71	Reb Blk Stl=A B B
15	Reed Timmer #12	Drake	6.45	Reb Blk Stl=D D D
16-playin	Femi Olujobi #25	North Carolina A&T	5.94	Reb Blk Stl=A B D
16-playin	Gary Blackston #3	Prairie View A&M	4.53	Reb Blk Stl=B C A

West Virginia's Jevon Carter is second best partly due to being an incredible defender.

Seed	NCAA South Seeds	Team	Value Add v5.0	Def Grades
1	Jevon Carter #2	West Virginia	11.03	Reb Blk Stl=B B A
2	Dean Wade #32	Kansas St.	9.88	Reb Blk Stl=A B A
3	Marvin Bagley #35	Duke	9.69	Reb Blk Stl=A B D
4	Luke Maye #32	North Carolina	9.37	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
5	Isaiah Wilkins #21	Virginia	8.96	Reb Blk Stl=A A A
6	Ria'n Holland #10	Mercer	8.57	Reb Blk Stl=D F A
7	Dewan Huell #20	Miami FL	8.47	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
8	Collin Sexton #2	Alabama	8.12	Reb Blk Stl=F F B
9	Kenrich Williams #34	Texas Christian	7.98	Reb Blk Stl=A C A
10	Chris Silva #30	South Carolina	7.89	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
11	Grayson Allen #3	Duke	7.8	Reb Blk Stl=F D B
12	Chris Chiozza #11	Florida	7.62	Reb Blk Stl=B F A
13	Dylan Windler #3	Belmont	7.26	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
14	Zach Lofton #23	New Mexico St.	6.59	Reb Blk Stl=B D C
15	Drew McDonald #34	Northern Kentucky	6.33	Reb Blk Stl=A C D
16	Devontae Cacok #15	North Carolina Wilmington	5.96	Reb Blk Stl=A B D

I am not sure if it is really allowed to have three of the four play-in games feed one bracket, but just having fun. DJ Hogg teams up with our old friend Duane Wilson, so the best of luck to them on an incredible start. We saw Georgia's Yante Maten, who couldn't quite win at Kentucky to help our RPI, and we will see Seton Hall and Desi Rodriguez of course.

Seed	NCAA West Seeds	Team	Value Add	Def Grades
1	Deandre Ayton #13	Arizona	10.96	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
2	Jock Landale #34	St. Mary's	10.29	Reb Blk Stl=A B F
3	Yante Maten #1	Georgia	9.58	Reb Blk Stl=B A D
4	Tra Holder #0	Arizona St.	9.18	Reb Blk Stl=C F A
5	Allonzo Trier #35	Arizona	8.61	Reb Blk Stl=F B D
6	Keenan Evans #12	Texas Tech	8.54	Reb Blk Stl=D B A
7	Lagerald Vick #2	Kansas	8.47	Reb Blk Stl=B C B
8	Juwan Morgan #13	Indiana	8.14	Reb Blk Stl=B A B
9	DJ Hogg #1	Texas A&M	8	Reb Blk Stl=B B B
10	Mohamed Bamba #4	Texas	7.94	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
11	Desi Rodriguez #20	Seton Hall	7.79	Reb Blk Stl=B B B
12-playin	Jeff Roberson #11	Vanderbilt	7.6	Reb Blk Stl=A C C
12-playin	Justin Tillman #4	Virginia Commonwealth	7.57	Reb Blk Stl=A B D
13-playin	Hayden Dalton #20	Wyoming	7.59	Reb Blk Stl=A B C
13-playin	Donta Hall #0	Alabama	7.58	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
14	Chima Moneke #11	UC Davis	6.8	Reb Blk Stl=A B B
15	Mike Daum #24	South Dakota St.	6.54	Reb Blk Stl=A B C
16-playin	Ahmaad Rorie #14	Montana	5.92	Reb Blk Stl=C D B
16-playin	Kevon Harris #1	Stephen F. Austin	5.44	Reb Blk Stl=B D C

And that's how it would play out if we were selecting the bids of the best player. Obviously you can sort the best of the Big East or anything else among the 4000-plus players at www.valueaddbasketball.com.