SOR/Matrix Average: Marquette Only Winner Among 10 "Middle" Teams Wednesday

In the past I've argued a "Middle 25" ranking for college basketball would be much more interesting than the Top 25, since what we really want to identify pre-tournament is the 25 teams fighting for the last 10 spots in the tournament.

The "Middle 25" below were those teams based on me averaging the Strength of Record ESPN argues is the best analytic indicator (a measure of how likely the 25th best team in the country would have been to match the team's record) and the cumulative wisdom of the bracket matrix. I grade last night's performance with a B, C or D letter grade (there were no earth-shattering A or F grades last night) to indicated if a team could have moved up or down based on last night's performance.

SOR/ Matrix	up to 10 of 25 get bids	CONF	Record	Wed Gm	Grade for Wed or next game (kenpom ranks)
1	Arizona State	Pac-12	19-7		Thur at #74 Oregon
2	Saint Mary's	WCC	25-4		Thur hosts #295 Pepperdine
3	Florida	SEC	17-10	Unchanged	C - closer than expected loss at #15 Tennessee
4	Baylor	Big 12	17-11		Sat at #23 TCU; Lunardi 7th in middle
5	St. Bona.	A 10	20-6	Unchanged	C - closer than expected 73-67 home win over #191 Duquesne
6	Alabama	SEC	17-10	Down	D - destroyed by 19 vs #12 Auburn
7	Missouri	SEC	18-10		Sat #25 Kentucky
8	Providence	Big East	17-10	Down	D - losing 56-47 with 13 min left vs. #38 Seton Hall before slick floor suspended
9	Louisville	ACC	18-9	Down	D - destroyed by Duke 82-56
10	Miss St. Current Cutoff	SEC	20-8		Sat Hosts #80 South Carolina
11	Syracuse	ACC	18-9	Down	D - lost at home vs. #7 UNC
12	Nebraska	Big Ten	21-9		Hosts #27 Penn State
13	UCLA	Pac-12	19-8		Thur at #60 Utah; lunardi 11th in middle
14	Maryland	Big Ten	19-11		Sat hosts #20 Michigan
15	Marquette	Big East	15-11	Up	B - bigger than expected win over #71 St. John's
16	Boise State	MW	21-6	Up	B - crushed #222 Colorado St 87-54 on road
17	Penn State	Big Ten	19-10	Down	D - upset loss vs. #24 Minnesota at home
18	LSU	SEC	16-11		Sat #71 Georgia
19	USC	Pac-12	19-9	Up	bigger than expected win at #112 Colorado
20	Washington	Pac-12	18-9		Thur at #93 Stanford
21	Utah	Pac-12	17-9		Thur hosts #53 UCLA
22	Georgia	SEC	15-11	Down	D - bigger than expected loss at South Carolina 66-57
23	Notre Dame	ACC	16-12		Sat at #89 Wake Forest
24	Temple	American	15-12		host #97 UCF
25	Western Kentucky	CUSA	20-7		Hosts #316 Charlotte

A warning - there are 10 spots available for this team without any tournament spoilers, most notably if Middle Tennessee or Nevada were to but upset in the Conference USA or Mountain West Tournament than those two conferences would likely get two spots, but there really are not too many spoilers most years. Based on this measure, Marquette is the "5th team out" as the 15th best team among the Middle 25 vying for 10 spots.

The good news is that was going into the St. John's game, and that win was coupled with all four teams in action in the 6th to 15 spots (the "Middle 10" with Marquette) having bad nights - though Providence could still salvage their night with a comeback in the game they need to finish at Noon Thursday. So if ESPN's resume and/or the Bracket Matrix is close, Marquette's chances likely improved somewhat substantially last night in beating a St. John's team that was undefeated in February including the upsets of Villanova and Duke.

Alabama, Louisville, Syracuse and Providence having setbacks and Marquette's win also improving its standing against the three idle teams just in front of them - Nebraska, UCLA and Maryland - give plenty of potential for movement. We will see how many nudge Marquette into their brackets or at least the next teams' out.