Tuesday, January 29, 2019
Optimistic Scrambled Eggs is back!
Call them ugly wins, but they are still wins and we've got 7 in a row and 15 out 16 of them. We talk about the latest wins against DePaul and Xavier, and our take aways, including the confidence in late game situations. There is some discussion of rankings, both voted and calculated, and the current tournament implications for the team. We then talk about about the next 3 games MU plays because we likely won't have a pod next week (silly vacations) so we break down the Butler, St Johns, and Villanova games. We project forward what we think the record will be, and lets just saw we've found our lost optimism. Tough set of games coming up, but if MU can pull off a 2-1 or 3-0 record they would be looking pretty, pretty, pretty good. Enjoy!
https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/mf/play/ydzrrg/scrambledeggs_editted_012819.mp3
Sunday, January 27, 2019
Bracket Projection, January 27
Does anyone on the bubble want to play in the NCAA Tournament? While evaluating the final 13 spots in the field, I dug into 33 different teams. 25 of them lost a game this past week, & 4 of the teams that didn't take a loss were in leagues that are too small to really move the needle for an at-large.
It happened to Pac-12 teams like Arizona, Arizona State, & Oregon. The Big 10 saw Indiana, Minnesota, & Northwestern all lose. In the SEC, it was Auburn, Florida, Alabama, & Arkansas. Syracuse, Clemson, & Pittsburgh all found ways to lose games in the ACC. Does no one want to fill out the field?
Mid and low major teams didn't fare much better. UCF, Temple, & Memphis in the American, San Francisco & St. Mary's in the WCC, Furman in the SoCon, & Toledo in the MAC all dropped games in low-opportunity leagues.
Collectively, the 33 teams I looked at went 31-33 over the past week, not exactly making a strong push to earn their way into the field.
The Big East had mixed results, with St. John's, Seton Hall, & Butler combining to go 0-4 while Creighton & Providence combined to go 4-0. So the teams on both sides of the bubble are moving closer to the middle that is a Tuesday or Wednesday game in Dayton. But no matter how bad the bubble is (and right now it looks really, really bad) there will still be 68 teams in the field. We'll start with the S-Curve:
1-Seeds: 1-VIRGINIA, 2-TENNESSEE, 3-Michigan, 4-Duke
2-Seeds: 8-KANSAS, 7-North Carolina, 6-GONZAGA, 6-MICHIGAN STATE
3-Seeds: 9-HOUSTON, 10-Kentucky, 11-Marquette, 12-Louisville
4-Seeds: 16-Wisconsin, 15-Lsu, 14-Texas Tech, 13-Virginia Tech
5-Seeds: 17-Iowa, 18-Maryland, 19-VILLANOVA, 20-BUFFALO
6-Seeds: 24-Iowa State, 23-NEVADA, 22-Purdue, 21-Oklahoma
7-Seeds: 25-Mississippi, 26-Mississippi State, 27-Nebraska, 28-Kansas State
8-Seeds: 32-Ohio State, 31-NC State, 30-Tcu, 29-Florida State
9-Seeds: 33-Minnesota, 34-Cincinnati, 35-Texas, 36-Auburn
10-Seeds: 40-Syracuse, 39-Seton Hall, 38-Temple, 37-Indiana
11-Seeds: 41-St. John's, 42-WOFFORD, 43-WASHINGTON, 44-Baylor/45-Alabama
12-Seeds: 50-LIPSCOMB, 49-MURRAY STATE, 48-HOFSTRA, 46-Arizona State/47-Creighton
13-Seeds: 51-RADFORD, 52-VERMONT, 53-NORTH TEXAS, 54-GRAND CANYON
14-Seeds: 58-LOYOLA CHICAGO, 57-NORTHERN KENTUCKY, 56-YALE, 55-TEXAS STATE
15-Seeds: 59-GEORGE MASON, 60-UC IRVINE, 61-BUCKNELL, 62-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
16-Seeds: 68-ROBERT MORRIS/67-PVAMU, 66-SAM HOUSTON ST/65-RIDER, 64-NORFOLK STATE, 63-NORTHERN COLORADO
Last Four Byes: Temple, Seton Hall, Syracuse, St. John's
Last Four In: Baylor, Alabama, Arizona State, Creighton
NIT 1-Seeds: Arizona, Butler, Florida, Utah State
NIT 2-Seeds: UNC Greensboro, VCU, UCF, Providence
Also Considered: San Francisco, Liberty, Clemson, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Toledo, Davidson, Arkansas, St. Mary's, Oregon, Northwestern, Fresno State, Memphis, South Carolina, Belmont
Multiple Bid Leagues
Big 10: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
SEC: 7
Big East: 5
American: 3
Pac-12: 2
This will also be our first bracket projection of the year. Seeds are balanced as well as possible across the four regions while also seeking to keep teams in the same conferences apart for the first weekend & preventing higher seeds from suffering unfair regional matchups. The location of the first round games will be listed in parentheses next to the protected seed.
East Region
1 Virginia
16 Robert Morris/Prairie View A&M
Columbia, South Carolina
8 TCU
9 Auburn
5 Villanova
12 Hofstra
San Jose, California
4 Wisconsin
13 Radford
3 Kentucky
14 Northern Kentucky
Des Moines, Iowa
6 Purdue
11 Baylor/Arizona State
7 Nebraska
10 Seton Hall
Tulsa, Oklahoma
2 Kansas
15 George Mason
Midwest Region
1 Michigan
16 Norfolk State
Columbus, Ohio
8 Florida State
9 Texas
5 Buffalo
12 Alabama/Creighton
Hartford, Connecticut
4 Virginia Tech
13 Grand Canyon
3 Louisville
14 Texas State
Hartford, Connecticut
6 Oklahoma
11 Wofford
7 Mississippi State
10 Indiana
Salt Lake City, Utah
2 Gonzaga
15 Bucknell
West Region
1 Duke
16 Northern Colorado
Jacksonville, Florida
8 Ohio State
9 Cincinnati
5 Maryland
12 Murray State
San Jose, California
4 LSU
13 Vermont
3 Houston
14 Loyola Chicago
Tulsa, Oklahoma
6 Iowa State
11 St. John's
7 Mississippi
10 Syracuse
Columbus, Ohio
2 Michigan State
15 South Dakota State
South Region
1 Tennessee
16 Sam Houston State/Rider
Columbia, South Carolina
8 NC State
9 Minnesota
5 Iowa
12 Lipscomb
Salt Lake City, Utah
4 Texas Tech
13 North Texas
3 Marquette
14 Yale
Des Moines, Iowa
6 Nevada
11Washington
7 Kansas State
10 Temple
Jacksonville, Florida
2 North Carolina
15 UC Irvine
It happened to Pac-12 teams like Arizona, Arizona State, & Oregon. The Big 10 saw Indiana, Minnesota, & Northwestern all lose. In the SEC, it was Auburn, Florida, Alabama, & Arkansas. Syracuse, Clemson, & Pittsburgh all found ways to lose games in the ACC. Does no one want to fill out the field?
Mid and low major teams didn't fare much better. UCF, Temple, & Memphis in the American, San Francisco & St. Mary's in the WCC, Furman in the SoCon, & Toledo in the MAC all dropped games in low-opportunity leagues.
Collectively, the 33 teams I looked at went 31-33 over the past week, not exactly making a strong push to earn their way into the field.
The Big East had mixed results, with St. John's, Seton Hall, & Butler combining to go 0-4 while Creighton & Providence combined to go 4-0. So the teams on both sides of the bubble are moving closer to the middle that is a Tuesday or Wednesday game in Dayton. But no matter how bad the bubble is (and right now it looks really, really bad) there will still be 68 teams in the field. We'll start with the S-Curve:
1-Seeds: 1-VIRGINIA, 2-TENNESSEE, 3-Michigan, 4-Duke
2-Seeds: 8-KANSAS, 7-North Carolina, 6-GONZAGA, 6-MICHIGAN STATE
3-Seeds: 9-HOUSTON, 10-Kentucky, 11-Marquette, 12-Louisville
4-Seeds: 16-Wisconsin, 15-Lsu, 14-Texas Tech, 13-Virginia Tech
5-Seeds: 17-Iowa, 18-Maryland, 19-VILLANOVA, 20-BUFFALO
6-Seeds: 24-Iowa State, 23-NEVADA, 22-Purdue, 21-Oklahoma
7-Seeds: 25-Mississippi, 26-Mississippi State, 27-Nebraska, 28-Kansas State
8-Seeds: 32-Ohio State, 31-NC State, 30-Tcu, 29-Florida State
9-Seeds: 33-Minnesota, 34-Cincinnati, 35-Texas, 36-Auburn
10-Seeds: 40-Syracuse, 39-Seton Hall, 38-Temple, 37-Indiana
11-Seeds: 41-St. John's, 42-WOFFORD, 43-WASHINGTON, 44-Baylor/45-Alabama
12-Seeds: 50-LIPSCOMB, 49-MURRAY STATE, 48-HOFSTRA, 46-Arizona State/47-Creighton
13-Seeds: 51-RADFORD, 52-VERMONT, 53-NORTH TEXAS, 54-GRAND CANYON
14-Seeds: 58-LOYOLA CHICAGO, 57-NORTHERN KENTUCKY, 56-YALE, 55-TEXAS STATE
15-Seeds: 59-GEORGE MASON, 60-UC IRVINE, 61-BUCKNELL, 62-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
16-Seeds: 68-ROBERT MORRIS/67-PVAMU, 66-SAM HOUSTON ST/65-RIDER, 64-NORFOLK STATE, 63-NORTHERN COLORADO
Last Four Byes: Temple, Seton Hall, Syracuse, St. John's
Last Four In: Baylor, Alabama, Arizona State, Creighton
NIT 1-Seeds: Arizona, Butler, Florida, Utah State
NIT 2-Seeds: UNC Greensboro, VCU, UCF, Providence
Also Considered: San Francisco, Liberty, Clemson, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Toledo, Davidson, Arkansas, St. Mary's, Oregon, Northwestern, Fresno State, Memphis, South Carolina, Belmont
Multiple Bid Leagues
Big 10: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
SEC: 7
Big East: 5
American: 3
Pac-12: 2
This will also be our first bracket projection of the year. Seeds are balanced as well as possible across the four regions while also seeking to keep teams in the same conferences apart for the first weekend & preventing higher seeds from suffering unfair regional matchups. The location of the first round games will be listed in parentheses next to the protected seed.
East Region
1 Virginia
16 Robert Morris/Prairie View A&M
Columbia, South Carolina
8 TCU
9 Auburn
5 Villanova
12 Hofstra
San Jose, California
4 Wisconsin
13 Radford
3 Kentucky
14 Northern Kentucky
Des Moines, Iowa
6 Purdue
11 Baylor/Arizona State
7 Nebraska
10 Seton Hall
Tulsa, Oklahoma
2 Kansas
15 George Mason
Midwest Region
1 Michigan
16 Norfolk State
Columbus, Ohio
8 Florida State
9 Texas
5 Buffalo
12 Alabama/Creighton
Hartford, Connecticut
4 Virginia Tech
13 Grand Canyon
3 Louisville
14 Texas State
Hartford, Connecticut
6 Oklahoma
11 Wofford
7 Mississippi State
10 Indiana
Salt Lake City, Utah
2 Gonzaga
15 Bucknell
West Region
1 Duke
16 Northern Colorado
Jacksonville, Florida
8 Ohio State
9 Cincinnati
5 Maryland
12 Murray State
San Jose, California
4 LSU
13 Vermont
3 Houston
14 Loyola Chicago
Tulsa, Oklahoma
6 Iowa State
11 St. John's
7 Mississippi
10 Syracuse
Columbus, Ohio
2 Michigan State
15 South Dakota State
South Region
1 Tennessee
16 Sam Houston State/Rider
Columbia, South Carolina
8 NC State
9 Minnesota
5 Iowa
12 Lipscomb
Salt Lake City, Utah
4 Texas Tech
13 North Texas
3 Marquette
14 Yale
Des Moines, Iowa
6 Nevada
11Washington
7 Kansas State
10 Temple
Jacksonville, Florida
2 North Carolina
15 UC Irvine
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
It's called a winning streak
It's another week and another pair of victories for #mubb, making it 5 in row a in conference play. We start the pod with a review of where Marquette is at with one third of the conference season behind us. We talk the Hauser brothers, rankings, metrics, and how we feel about the season to date. We then talk about the games that were played this week including how Markus getting hurt was a net positive for the team, the development of Theo John, and what we think of the job Wojo has done to date. We then pivot to the up coming games this week where #DLTD is a big topic and the belief that we can start 7-1 in conference play. We close out with a review of the festivities for Dwyane Wade day and a send off of Dwyane Wade. Enjoy!
https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/mf/play/jphqsm/scrambledeggs_editted_012119.mp3
Monday, January 21, 2019
S-Curve Update, January 21
I feel a bit guilty. I put Texas Tech on the top line in my last update, and the Red Raiders proceeded to drop their next two games to fall all the way to the last 3-seed. With TTU falling out, it left a vacancy on the top line. Despite the impressive win by Duke over Virginia, they do not return to the top line. The Syracuse home loss is still too glaring, especially when you compare their overall resume to the teams ahead of them. It was a tough decision, as right now it seems there are five teams worthy of a 1-seed but only four to hand out. Here's the current S-Curve:
1-Seeds: 1-VIRGINIA, 2-TENNESSEE, 3-Michigan, 4-MICHIGAN STATE
2-Seeds: 8-North Carolina, 7-KANSAS, 6-GONZAGA, 5-Duke
3-Seeds: 9-HOUSTON, 10-Marquette, 11-BUFFALO, 12-Texas Tech
4-Seeds: 16-Iowa, 15-Maryland, 14-Virginia Tech, 13-Kentucky
5-Seeds: 17-Louisville, 18-Nebraska, 19-Lsu, 20-Mississippi
6-Seeds: 24-VILLANOVA, 23-Mississippi State, 22-Oklahoma, 21-Wisconsin
7-Seeds: 25-Iowa State, 26-Purdue, 27-NC State, 28-NEVADA
8-Seeds: 32-Kansas State, 31-Indiana, 30-Florida State, 29-Auburn
9-Seeds: 33-Ohio State, 34-Texas, 35-St. John's, 36-Butler
10-Seeds: 40-Minnesota, 39-Seton Hall, 38-Syracuse, 37-Tcu
11-Seeds: 41-Temple, 42-WOFFORD, 43-WASHINGTON, 44-Cincinnati/45-Arizona
12-Seeds: 50-MURRAY STATE, 49-HOFSTRA, 48-ST LOUIS, 47-Arizona State/46-Alabama
13-Seeds: 51-LIBERTY, 52-RADFORD, 53-VERMONT, 54-MARSHALL
14-Seeds: 58-NORTHERN KENTUCKY, 57-LOYOLA CHICAGO, 56-TEXAS STATE, 55-GRAND CANYON
15-Seeds: 59-UC SANTA BARBARA, 60-PRINCETON, 61-BUCKNELL, 62-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
16-Seeds: 68-ROBERT MORRIS/67-PRAIRIE VIEW A&M, 66-SAM HOUSTON STATE/65-RIDER, 64-NORFOLK STATE, 63-WEBER STATE
NIT 1-Seeds: 69-Florida, 70-Furman, 71-Lipscomb, 72-Clemson
NIT 2-Seeds: 76-Baylor, 75-Pittsburgh, 74-Utah State, 73-VCU
Multibid Leagues
Big 10:10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
SEC: 7
Big East: 5
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
Some teams moved down despite doing nothing wrong since the last update, most notably Villanova and Nevada. I started this bracket completely from scratch, so that coupled with the advent of the division of the first two Quadrants made their resumes pale a bit compared to the last update.
The Big East returns to 5 teams, though Creighton has tumbled completely off the board. While only Marquette & Villanova look secure (thanks in large part to DePaul playing spoiler) the current state of the bubble is so soft that Seton Hall is the only team in the Last Eight.
There's been a lot of talk about a 1-bid Pac-12. First, the only reason Washington is in my field is because they are leading the conference standings & thus go as the auto-bid. If they were not, they would absolutely not be in the field. They have zero top-100 wins as of this writing. That's not an at-large team. I'll also note that while it's a 3-bid league currently, both Arizona & Arizona State are in Dayton. If either of them wins both the league and auto-bid, I think a 1-bid Pac-12 is a realistic possibility, though I still think 2 is most likely.
1-Seeds: 1-VIRGINIA, 2-TENNESSEE, 3-Michigan, 4-MICHIGAN STATE
2-Seeds: 8-North Carolina, 7-KANSAS, 6-GONZAGA, 5-Duke
3-Seeds: 9-HOUSTON, 10-Marquette, 11-BUFFALO, 12-Texas Tech
4-Seeds: 16-Iowa, 15-Maryland, 14-Virginia Tech, 13-Kentucky
5-Seeds: 17-Louisville, 18-Nebraska, 19-Lsu, 20-Mississippi
6-Seeds: 24-VILLANOVA, 23-Mississippi State, 22-Oklahoma, 21-Wisconsin
7-Seeds: 25-Iowa State, 26-Purdue, 27-NC State, 28-NEVADA
8-Seeds: 32-Kansas State, 31-Indiana, 30-Florida State, 29-Auburn
9-Seeds: 33-Ohio State, 34-Texas, 35-St. John's, 36-Butler
10-Seeds: 40-Minnesota, 39-Seton Hall, 38-Syracuse, 37-Tcu
11-Seeds: 41-Temple, 42-WOFFORD, 43-WASHINGTON, 44-Cincinnati/45-Arizona
12-Seeds: 50-MURRAY STATE, 49-HOFSTRA, 48-ST LOUIS, 47-Arizona State/46-Alabama
13-Seeds: 51-LIBERTY, 52-RADFORD, 53-VERMONT, 54-MARSHALL
14-Seeds: 58-NORTHERN KENTUCKY, 57-LOYOLA CHICAGO, 56-TEXAS STATE, 55-GRAND CANYON
15-Seeds: 59-UC SANTA BARBARA, 60-PRINCETON, 61-BUCKNELL, 62-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
16-Seeds: 68-ROBERT MORRIS/67-PRAIRIE VIEW A&M, 66-SAM HOUSTON STATE/65-RIDER, 64-NORFOLK STATE, 63-WEBER STATE
NIT 1-Seeds: 69-Florida, 70-Furman, 71-Lipscomb, 72-Clemson
NIT 2-Seeds: 76-Baylor, 75-Pittsburgh, 74-Utah State, 73-VCU
Multibid Leagues
Big 10:10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
SEC: 7
Big East: 5
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
Some teams moved down despite doing nothing wrong since the last update, most notably Villanova and Nevada. I started this bracket completely from scratch, so that coupled with the advent of the division of the first two Quadrants made their resumes pale a bit compared to the last update.
The Big East returns to 5 teams, though Creighton has tumbled completely off the board. While only Marquette & Villanova look secure (thanks in large part to DePaul playing spoiler) the current state of the bubble is so soft that Seton Hall is the only team in the Last Eight.
There's been a lot of talk about a 1-bid Pac-12. First, the only reason Washington is in my field is because they are leading the conference standings & thus go as the auto-bid. If they were not, they would absolutely not be in the field. They have zero top-100 wins as of this writing. That's not an at-large team. I'll also note that while it's a 3-bid league currently, both Arizona & Arizona State are in Dayton. If either of them wins both the league and auto-bid, I think a 1-bid Pac-12 is a realistic possibility, though I still think 2 is most likely.
Sunday, January 20, 2019
Breaking: NCAA Team Sheet Change
When the NCAA came out with the Quadrant system, it was designed to make game analysis more transparent. Instead of simply looking at top-50 or top-100 wins & sub-300 losses, it took into account where games were played. There were four categories created. These were the criteria for the original Quadrants based on location and the ranking (RPI in 2018, NET in 2019) of the opponent played:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161+, Neutral 201+, Away 241+
On January 20, 2019, the NCAA divided Quadrants 1 and 2 into two further classifications. While everyone else was watching the NFL Conference Championship games, I happened to be looking at NCAA Team Sheets (because that's just what I do for fun) & noticed this change. The Team Sheets do not have any different named classification for the Quadrant divisions, but there are clear divisions on the team sheets as well as numerically defined criteria that divide the top two Quadrants. As the NCAA didn't give them names, I have labeled them A & B. Here are the new criteria, with the changes exclusive to the first two Quadrants:
Quadrant 1A: Home 1-15, Neutral 1-25, Away 1-40
Quadrant 1B: Home 16-30, Neutral 26-50, Away 41-75
Quadrant 2A: Home 31-55, Neutral 51-75, Away 76-100
Quadrant 2B: Home 56-75, Neutral 76-100, Away 101-135
The bifurcation of the first two Quadrants into A & B games could be very significant, especially when it comes to analyzing high-major to mid-major teams for NCAA Selection.
When I'm looking at a resume, I place a little extra value on top-30 wins when evaluating teams. The reason for that is because going into January 20, when you defeat a top-30 team, that game is going to be Quadrant 1 no matter where it is played. It doesn't matter if you play NET #28 Villanova at the Pavilion, in Orlando, or on your home floor, you know that will be a Quadrant 1 game.
By dividing Quadrant 1 into an A & B classification, the only teams that meet the Quadrant 1A criteria are top-15 teams. Further, getting Q1A road wins becomes more difficult because there are fewer teams that are in that category & they are concentrated into a smaller number of conferences.
Currently, 80% of the teams that meet that Quadrant 1A classification on any court come from just four leagues. The ACC, Big 10, Big 12, & SEC make up 12 of the top 15 teams. The other three teams are Gonzaga, Houston, & Buffalo. That means teams in the Big East, Pac-12, & all other conferences have zero remaining opportunities for Q1A wins at home as the NET is currently configured. But it's not just the home games where that stands out. If you include the Big East and Pac-12 as the two other generally recognized high-major conferences, 82.5% of the road game opportunities for Q1A games are in those top six leagues. Just 7 of the top-40 teams reside outside those top six leagues, as opposed to 17 of the teams in the 41-75 range.
What that means is teams outside the top six leagues in college basketball just saw more than a 70.8% reduction in the number of teams that qualify as being potential opponents in the highest recognized category on the NCAA Team Sheets. While this could have an adverse affect on teams in the Big East (who now have zero home opportunities at Q1A wins & just two road opportunities at Q1A wins, at Marquette & Villanova) it could potentially be even more damaging to teams in leagues that don't generally put more than 1-2 teams in the tournament.
There are two other changes to the sheet. The NCAA added the future schedule, breaking games down into the Quadrants in which they will appear, and also added the dates of both current and future games. The former makes it easy to see just how many (or in Nevada's case, how few) opportunities teams have at quality wins. The latter could be even more significant because it allows an easier reference as to when a team got their best wins. In the past, the NCAA has said they value a win in November just as much as a win in March, but by putting the date on the Team Sheet, it will allow Selection Committee members to more easily consider the notion of the "hot team". For instance, Marquette currently has just two Q1A victories, their home win over Buffalo & the neutral court over Louisville. Now that the team sheets includes "1221" & "1123" as the dates, is it easier to dismiss that because of how long ago the games will have happened when Selection Sunday rolls around? And because of the concentration of Q1A opportunities to the top-six leagues, will it potentially diminish the value of those top-tier wins by mid-major schools that earned their best victories with dates in November & December?
It remains to be seen how this will impact selection & seeding, but it's hard to imagine this isn't potentially a very significant development for both as March draws closer.
Nevada comes to mind above all others. Their win at Fresno State was their only Quadrant 1 win, but it is now relegated to Quadrant 1B. They only had one other shot at a Q1 win, at Utah State, which is also a Q1B game. Their seven Quadrant 2 wins have been almost equally divided with 4 in Quadrant 2A & 3 in Quadrant 2B. That simple change makes their resume look even less impressive, & only having one Q1B & one Q2B game left on the schedule means they can't improve on it by much. I still think a 4-loss (3 regular season, 1 MWC tourney) Nevada team will be on the bubble, but now even if they do get in I have to believe this could negatively affect their seeding.
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161+, Neutral 201+, Away 241+
On January 20, 2019, the NCAA divided Quadrants 1 and 2 into two further classifications. While everyone else was watching the NFL Conference Championship games, I happened to be looking at NCAA Team Sheets (because that's just what I do for fun) & noticed this change. The Team Sheets do not have any different named classification for the Quadrant divisions, but there are clear divisions on the team sheets as well as numerically defined criteria that divide the top two Quadrants. As the NCAA didn't give them names, I have labeled them A & B. Here are the new criteria, with the changes exclusive to the first two Quadrants:
Quadrant 1A: Home 1-15, Neutral 1-25, Away 1-40
Quadrant 1B: Home 16-30, Neutral 26-50, Away 41-75
Quadrant 2A: Home 31-55, Neutral 51-75, Away 76-100
Quadrant 2B: Home 56-75, Neutral 76-100, Away 101-135
The bifurcation of the first two Quadrants into A & B games could be very significant, especially when it comes to analyzing high-major to mid-major teams for NCAA Selection.
When I'm looking at a resume, I place a little extra value on top-30 wins when evaluating teams. The reason for that is because going into January 20, when you defeat a top-30 team, that game is going to be Quadrant 1 no matter where it is played. It doesn't matter if you play NET #28 Villanova at the Pavilion, in Orlando, or on your home floor, you know that will be a Quadrant 1 game.
By dividing Quadrant 1 into an A & B classification, the only teams that meet the Quadrant 1A criteria are top-15 teams. Further, getting Q1A road wins becomes more difficult because there are fewer teams that are in that category & they are concentrated into a smaller number of conferences.
Currently, 80% of the teams that meet that Quadrant 1A classification on any court come from just four leagues. The ACC, Big 10, Big 12, & SEC make up 12 of the top 15 teams. The other three teams are Gonzaga, Houston, & Buffalo. That means teams in the Big East, Pac-12, & all other conferences have zero remaining opportunities for Q1A wins at home as the NET is currently configured. But it's not just the home games where that stands out. If you include the Big East and Pac-12 as the two other generally recognized high-major conferences, 82.5% of the road game opportunities for Q1A games are in those top six leagues. Just 7 of the top-40 teams reside outside those top six leagues, as opposed to 17 of the teams in the 41-75 range.
What that means is teams outside the top six leagues in college basketball just saw more than a 70.8% reduction in the number of teams that qualify as being potential opponents in the highest recognized category on the NCAA Team Sheets. While this could have an adverse affect on teams in the Big East (who now have zero home opportunities at Q1A wins & just two road opportunities at Q1A wins, at Marquette & Villanova) it could potentially be even more damaging to teams in leagues that don't generally put more than 1-2 teams in the tournament.
There are two other changes to the sheet. The NCAA added the future schedule, breaking games down into the Quadrants in which they will appear, and also added the dates of both current and future games. The former makes it easy to see just how many (or in Nevada's case, how few) opportunities teams have at quality wins. The latter could be even more significant because it allows an easier reference as to when a team got their best wins. In the past, the NCAA has said they value a win in November just as much as a win in March, but by putting the date on the Team Sheet, it will allow Selection Committee members to more easily consider the notion of the "hot team". For instance, Marquette currently has just two Q1A victories, their home win over Buffalo & the neutral court over Louisville. Now that the team sheets includes "1221" & "1123" as the dates, is it easier to dismiss that because of how long ago the games will have happened when Selection Sunday rolls around? And because of the concentration of Q1A opportunities to the top-six leagues, will it potentially diminish the value of those top-tier wins by mid-major schools that earned their best victories with dates in November & December?
It remains to be seen how this will impact selection & seeding, but it's hard to imagine this isn't potentially a very significant development for both as March draws closer.
Nevada comes to mind above all others. Their win at Fresno State was their only Quadrant 1 win, but it is now relegated to Quadrant 1B. They only had one other shot at a Q1 win, at Utah State, which is also a Q1B game. Their seven Quadrant 2 wins have been almost equally divided with 4 in Quadrant 2A & 3 in Quadrant 2B. That simple change makes their resume look even less impressive, & only having one Q1B & one Q2B game left on the schedule means they can't improve on it by much. I still think a 4-loss (3 regular season, 1 MWC tourney) Nevada team will be on the bubble, but now even if they do get in I have to believe this could negatively affect their seeding.
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
The High Risk Game of Luck
Watching Marquette win another nail-biter over Georgetown coupled with Andrei Greska's article at Paint Touches about why the computer metrics aren't high on Marquette got me thinking about this team's future. After reading the article, I was thinking a lot about last year's Xavier team, which had some striking similarities to this year's Marquette. Both teams were ranked highly in the AP & Coaches' polls but weren't ranked as highly by computer metrics such as Pomeroy, Sagarin, and Torvik.
These teams shared some hallmarks. Both had a number of close wins. During the regular season, Xavier was 8-0 in games decided by 5 or fewer points while Marquette is currently 5-0 in such games. While neither team lost often, their losses were by big margins. Xavier had an average losing margin of 16.3 ppg with a minimum loss differential of -9 while Marquette has an average losing margin of 17.3 ppg with an identical minimum loss differential of -9.
The third thing that stood out was both teams were ranked high in kenpom's "Luck" category. Xavier was the #1 luckiest team in the country while Marquette currently checks in at #26. According to Pomeroy, Luck "is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest."
In my most recent Cracked Sidewalks S-Curve, Marquette checks in as the #12 team in the curve and the last 3-seed. Based on Marquette's current Pomeroy rating of 36, they are overslotted by 24 positions. To figure that out, I simply multiplied the seed by 4 (4 teams per line) & subtracted the seed value from the Pomeroy rank. I looked at similarly overseeded teams over the past 5 years. My criteria were teams with top-50 Luck ratings, seeding disparities of 10+ positions in the S-Curve, & using only teams of at-large quality because sometimes auto-bid winners have to be overseeded just to fill the field.
A few things stand out. First, you have to go back 5 years to find any of these teams that overperformed their seed (2014 NC State). Second, only one of these teams made it out of the first weekend, though the team played to seed (2014 Iowa State). For the most part, teams that get into the tournament by winning close games and losing in blowout fashion tend to have their luck catch up with them on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. I can see that being something to make Marquette fans nervous as we get closer to Selection Sunday.
However, if we go back one year further, there is a reason for hope. In 2013, there was a team that ranked 11th in luck, was ranked 25th going into Selection Sunday, and was overseeded by 13 when they were placed as a 3-seed. Their luck held, winning two games on the final possession before making it to the Elite Eight and being the last team to overperform their seed under these criteria. So who was that lucky team? None other than Marquette.
These teams shared some hallmarks. Both had a number of close wins. During the regular season, Xavier was 8-0 in games decided by 5 or fewer points while Marquette is currently 5-0 in such games. While neither team lost often, their losses were by big margins. Xavier had an average losing margin of 16.3 ppg with a minimum loss differential of -9 while Marquette has an average losing margin of 17.3 ppg with an identical minimum loss differential of -9.
The third thing that stood out was both teams were ranked high in kenpom's "Luck" category. Xavier was the #1 luckiest team in the country while Marquette currently checks in at #26. According to Pomeroy, Luck "is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest."
In my most recent Cracked Sidewalks S-Curve, Marquette checks in as the #12 team in the curve and the last 3-seed. Based on Marquette's current Pomeroy rating of 36, they are overslotted by 24 positions. To figure that out, I simply multiplied the seed by 4 (4 teams per line) & subtracted the seed value from the Pomeroy rank. I looked at similarly overseeded teams over the past 5 years. My criteria were teams with top-50 Luck ratings, seeding disparities of 10+ positions in the S-Curve, & using only teams of at-large quality because sometimes auto-bid winners have to be overseeded just to fill the field.
| Year | Team | Luck Rank | Kenpom Rank | Seed Line | Overseed Value | Result |
| 2018 | Xavier | 1 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 2nd Round Loss |
| 2017 | Maryland | 39 | 43 | 6 | 19 | 1st Round Loss |
| 2017 | Seton Hall | 43 | 51 | 9 | 15 | 1st Round Loss |
| 2016 | Utah | 9 | 28 | 3 | 16 | 2nd Round Loss |
| 2016 | Temple | 17 | 90 | 10 | 50 | 1st Round Loss |
| 2015 | Maryland | 2 | 32 | 4 | 16 | 2nd Round Loss |
| 2015 | Oregon | 5 | 46 | 8 | 14 | 2nd Round Loss |
| 2014 | Colorado | 3 | 68 | 8 | 36 | 1st Round Loss |
| 2014 | Massachusetts | 40 | 50 | 8 | 18 | 1st Round Loss |
| 2014 | Iowa State | 43 | 24 | 3 | 12 | Sweet 16 Loss |
| 2014 | NC State | 39 | 66 | 12 | 18 | 2nd Round Loss |
A few things stand out. First, you have to go back 5 years to find any of these teams that overperformed their seed (2014 NC State). Second, only one of these teams made it out of the first weekend, though the team played to seed (2014 Iowa State). For the most part, teams that get into the tournament by winning close games and losing in blowout fashion tend to have their luck catch up with them on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. I can see that being something to make Marquette fans nervous as we get closer to Selection Sunday.
However, if we go back one year further, there is a reason for hope. In 2013, there was a team that ranked 11th in luck, was ranked 25th going into Selection Sunday, and was overseeded by 13 when they were placed as a 3-seed. Their luck held, winning two games on the final possession before making it to the Elite Eight and being the last team to overperform their seed under these criteria. So who was that lucky team? None other than Marquette.
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
S-Curve Update, January 15
The most notable change to the S-Curve is Duke falling from the top line & second overall seed down to the the two-line. It was difficult not to drop them further as they are one of only two teams on the top three lines with a Quadrant 2 loss, though they still have five Quadrant 1 victories, a total only exceeded by Kansas, the other top-3 seed with a Q2 loss. Texas Tech replaces the Blue Devils on the 1-line. I was wary of Chris Beard's team earlier because their gaudy record was mostly built on a soft schedule, but they've added two wins in both Quadrants 1 & 2 in league play, showing so far that they are legit.
The Big East took some big hits this week. Marquette stands firm at 12 as there just wasn't enough movement ahead of them to move them up. Villanova moved up one line to a 5-seed and Seton Hall stayed in about the same place, but St. John's tumbled 5 lines after their loss to DePaul while Butler's loss to Xavier dropped them out of the field, leaving the league with only 4 teams in our S-Curve. Creighton also took a hit by missing a home opportunity at their first Quadrant 1 win against Villanova. I could still see the Big East getting as many as 6 teams in, but if the middle & bottom beats up on itself, 3 is also a possibility. Here's the field:
1-Seeds: 1-MICHIGAN, 2-VIRGINIA, 3-TENNESSEE, 4-TEXAS TECH
2-Seeds: 8-Michigan State, 7-Duke, 6-Kansas, 5-GONZAGA
3-Seeds: 9-Oklahoma, 10-Houston, 11-North Carolina, 12-Marquette
4-Seeds: 16-Kentucky, 15-Maryland, 14-Virginia Tech, 13-BUFFALO
5-Seeds: 17-Nebraska, 18-NEVADA, 19-VILLANOVA, 20-N.C. State
6-Seeds: 24-Florida State, 23-Iowa, 22-Mississippi, 21-Louisville
7-Seeds: 25-Purdue, 26-Auburn, 27-Indiana, 28-Iowa State
8-Seeds: 32-Ohio State, 31-Minnesota, 30-Lsu, 29-Wisconsin
9-Seeds: 33-Mississippi State, 34-ARIZONA, 35-Seton Hall, 36-Temple
10-Seeds: 40-WOFFORD, 39-Syracuse, 38-St. John's, 37-Tcu
11-Seeds: 41-UCF, 42-Kansas State, 43-Texas, 44-LIPSCOMB
12-Seeds: 50-MURRAY STATE, 49-ST. LOUIS, 48-Vcu/47-Washington, 46-Cincinnati/45-Arizona State
13-Seeds: 51-HOFSTRA, 52-VERMONT, 53-RADFORD, 54-UC IRVINE
14-Seeds: 58-RIDER, 57-UTSA, 56-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, 55-GEORGIA STATE
15-Seeds: 59-DETROIT, 60-VALPARAISO, 61-BUCKNELL, 62-PRINCETON
16-Seeds: 68-NORFOLK STATE/67-UMKC, 66-SAM HOUSTON STATE/65-WAGNER, 64-PRAIRIE VIEW A&M, 63-NORTHERN COLORADO
Last Four In: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Washington, VCU
Last Four Byes: St. John's, Syracuse, Kansas State, Texas
NIT 1-Seeds (First Four Out): Florida, Butler, Furman, San Francisco
NIT 2-Seeds (Next Four Out): Pittsburgh, Creighton, Utah State, Alabama
Multi-bid Conferences
Big 10: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
SEC: 6
American: 4
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
One team that is really surprising of late is Jeff Capel's Pittsburgh Panthers. They are still currently on the outside looking in due to an ugly home loss to sub-300 Niagara. Outside that game, however, they have a very respectable resume. If they can get to 9-9 in league play they will definitely be a team to watch come Selection Sunday. That will be a tough ask, though, as Pomeroy has them as underdogs in 11 of their remaining 14 games.
The Big East took some big hits this week. Marquette stands firm at 12 as there just wasn't enough movement ahead of them to move them up. Villanova moved up one line to a 5-seed and Seton Hall stayed in about the same place, but St. John's tumbled 5 lines after their loss to DePaul while Butler's loss to Xavier dropped them out of the field, leaving the league with only 4 teams in our S-Curve. Creighton also took a hit by missing a home opportunity at their first Quadrant 1 win against Villanova. I could still see the Big East getting as many as 6 teams in, but if the middle & bottom beats up on itself, 3 is also a possibility. Here's the field:
1-Seeds: 1-MICHIGAN, 2-VIRGINIA, 3-TENNESSEE, 4-TEXAS TECH
2-Seeds: 8-Michigan State, 7-Duke, 6-Kansas, 5-GONZAGA
3-Seeds: 9-Oklahoma, 10-Houston, 11-North Carolina, 12-Marquette
4-Seeds: 16-Kentucky, 15-Maryland, 14-Virginia Tech, 13-BUFFALO
5-Seeds: 17-Nebraska, 18-NEVADA, 19-VILLANOVA, 20-N.C. State
6-Seeds: 24-Florida State, 23-Iowa, 22-Mississippi, 21-Louisville
7-Seeds: 25-Purdue, 26-Auburn, 27-Indiana, 28-Iowa State
8-Seeds: 32-Ohio State, 31-Minnesota, 30-Lsu, 29-Wisconsin
9-Seeds: 33-Mississippi State, 34-ARIZONA, 35-Seton Hall, 36-Temple
10-Seeds: 40-WOFFORD, 39-Syracuse, 38-St. John's, 37-Tcu
11-Seeds: 41-UCF, 42-Kansas State, 43-Texas, 44-LIPSCOMB
12-Seeds: 50-MURRAY STATE, 49-ST. LOUIS, 48-Vcu/47-Washington, 46-Cincinnati/45-Arizona State
13-Seeds: 51-HOFSTRA, 52-VERMONT, 53-RADFORD, 54-UC IRVINE
14-Seeds: 58-RIDER, 57-UTSA, 56-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, 55-GEORGIA STATE
15-Seeds: 59-DETROIT, 60-VALPARAISO, 61-BUCKNELL, 62-PRINCETON
16-Seeds: 68-NORFOLK STATE/67-UMKC, 66-SAM HOUSTON STATE/65-WAGNER, 64-PRAIRIE VIEW A&M, 63-NORTHERN COLORADO
Last Four In: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Washington, VCU
Last Four Byes: St. John's, Syracuse, Kansas State, Texas
NIT 1-Seeds (First Four Out): Florida, Butler, Furman, San Francisco
NIT 2-Seeds (Next Four Out): Pittsburgh, Creighton, Utah State, Alabama
Multi-bid Conferences
Big 10: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
SEC: 6
American: 4
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
One team that is really surprising of late is Jeff Capel's Pittsburgh Panthers. They are still currently on the outside looking in due to an ugly home loss to sub-300 Niagara. Outside that game, however, they have a very respectable resume. If they can get to 9-9 in league play they will definitely be a team to watch come Selection Sunday. That will be a tough ask, though, as Pomeroy has them as underdogs in 11 of their remaining 14 games.
Two wins and a cardiac screening, big week for #mubb
I'm assuming everyone has recovered from that crazy Creighton finish and the too close for comfort Seton Hall victory....no, oh well we're here to revisit it anyway. So we're going to talk the crazy Creighton win and how what we are most thankful in that is getting another exquisite Markus Howard performance. Also talk about how this team is demonstrating a different mental attitude than seasons past and what that means going forward. We touch on the Seton Hall game and talk about the implications of losing Morrow for the short term (we hope) due to injury.We then turn to this week in basketball and preview the Georgetown game as well as the Providence game. We also definitely spend a considerable amount of time reliving the Dwyane Wade years as we look add to his day at the Fiserv against Providence. Enjoy!
https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/mf/play/zeqjwg/scrambledeggs_editted_11419.mp3
Sunday, January 13, 2019
Putting MU No.12 in a Week of Upsets that is Hard to Predict
I claim no expertise in following how AP writers and coaches select their top 25 ballots, but looking through all the upsets this week, the incredible publicity from the Creighton game, and MU's past victims Louisville going into UNC for a blowout win and K-State pulling off two of the most impressive comebacks of the year - I'm pegging Marquette for No. 12 in my top 25 (with my next 10 listed for a top 35).
I put Villanova all the way up to 19th IF they win at Creighton this morning at 11 a.m. For whatever it is worth, here is my list with notes on how they performed this week with the kenpom ratings of oppoents noted, and then where each team was ranked last week in both polls as well as in the NET Ratings.
I put Villanova all the way up to 19th IF they win at Creighton this morning at 11 a.m. For whatever it is worth, here is my list with notes on how they performed this week with the kenpom ratings of oppoents noted, and then where each team was ranked last week in both polls as well as in the NET Ratings.
| SCHOOL | my new | Pudner Notes on games - kenpom ratings | AP | Coaches | Net (Fri) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 1 | No changes in top 9, all solid | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Virginia | 2 | No changes in top 9, all solid | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Michigan | 3 | No changes in top 9, all solid | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Tennessee | 4 | No changes in top 9, all solid | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Michigan St. | 5 | No changes in top 9, all solid | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| Texas Tech | 6 | No changes in top 9, all solid | 8 | 8 | 4 |
| Gonzaga | 7 | No changes in top 9, all solid | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Virginia Tech | 8 | No changes in top 9, all solid | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| Kansas | 9 | No changes in top 9, all solid | 7 | 9 | 11 |
| Florida St. | 10 | beat Miami and heartbreak loss to Duke | 13 | 13 | 19 |
| Nevada | 11 | rebounded with 2 wins | 10 | 11 | 27 |
| Marquette | 12 | win at 37 Creighton and vs 46 Seton Hall that beat Kentucky, and LOTS of publicity | 21 | 19 | 21 |
| Auburn | 13 | loss at 30 Ole Miss doesn't look that bad after Miss then won at Miss State, then killed 91 Crean's Georgia | 11 | 10 | 24 |
| North Carolina | 14 | won at 25 NC State, but destroyed at home by MU victim 26 Louisville | 12 | 12 | 8 |
| Kentucky | 15 | home wins vs 88 Texas A&M and 83 Vanderbilt, but with MU wins more impressive could pass | 18 | 18 | 12 |
| Buffalo | 16 | won home vs 69 Toledo and 181 Miami, but with no teams left between them and an MU team that beat them may pass | 19 | 20 | 14 |
| NC State | 17 | won at home vs 80 Pitt, but lost at home to 10 UNC who then was destroyed by MU victim Louisville | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| Oklahoma | 18 | lost at 8 Texas Tech, beat 22 TCU | 23 | 22 | 15 |
| Villanova | 19 | IF THEY BEAT CREIGHTON SUNDAY 11 AM - IF MOVE OTHERS UP. won at home vs St Johns | 26 | 27 | 29 |
| Houston | 20 | lost at 71 Temple, at home 9 pt win vs 129 Wichita | 17 | 15 | 9 |
| Iowa | 21 | won at 57 NW and home 29 Ohio State | 28 | 25 | 35 |
| Maryland | 22 | won at 52 MN and home vs 23 Indiana | 32 | 50 | 20 |
| Ole Miss | 23 | 2 big wins 11 Auburn and at 28 Miss State | 50 | 50 | 28 |
| Louisville | 24 | lost at 79 Pitt in OT, destroyed 10 UNC on road | 36 | 50 | 32 |
| Purdue | 25 | lost at 3 Michigan State, at 14 Wisconsin | 30 | 50 | 18 |
| UCF | 26 | won home 71 Temple, at 83 Uconn | 35 | 30 | 31 |
| Kansas St. | 27 | won vs 66 West Virginia, at 17 Iowa State | 43 | 37 | 53 |
| Wisconsin | 28 | won at 58 Penn State, lost home 16 Purdue | 27 | 26 | 22 |
| Seton Hall | 29 | beat 39 Butler lost at 33 Marquette | 33 | 32 | 45 |
| Florida | 30 | won at 55 Arkansas, lost home 5 Tennessee | 39 | 50 | 39 |
| TCU | 31 | 2 road losses to good team | 25 | 28 | 34 |
| LSU | 32 | beat 66 Bama, then on road best 55 Arkansas | 50 | 50 | 25 |
| Mississippi St. | 33 | lost at 113 South Carolina and home vs 30 Mississippi | 14 | 14 | 30 |
| Ohio St. | 34 | lost at 112 Rutgers and 35 Iowa | 16 | 17 | 36 |
| Indiana | 35 | 2 road losses to good team | 22 | 24 | 23 |
Thursday, January 10, 2019
S-Curve Update: January 10
We have a new S-Curve after Marquette's incredible comeback against Creighton. There have been some changes now that conference play has kicked off. Conference rankings are being used for auto-bids with one exception; Nevada was considered the MWC Champ because at this point, that league does not seem worthy of two bids. As usual, all bids are based on resume and not projections. This is about what you've done, not what people think you might do.
1-Seeds: 1-Michigan, 2-Duke, 3-Virginia, 4-TENNESSEE
2-Seeds: 8-Kansas, 7-MICHIGAN STATE, 6-Gonzaga, 5-TEXAS TECH
3-Seeds: 9-North Carolina, 10-Houston, 11-Oklahoma, 12-Marquette
4-Seeds: 16-Florida State, 15-VIRGINIA TECH, 14-BUFFALO, 13-Indiana
5-Seeds: 17-Kentucky, 18-Wisconsin, 19-St. John's, 20-Maryland
6-Seeds: 24-NEVADA, 23-VILLANOVA, 22-Nebraska, 21-Iowa State
7-Seeds: 25-Iowa, 26-Louisville, 27-Mississippi, 28-Ohio State
8-Seeds: 32-Mississippi State, 31-Purdue, 30-Auburn, 29-North Carolina State
9-Seeds: 33-TCU, 34-LSU, 35-Minnesota, 36-Seton Hall
10-Seeds: 40-Texas, 39-UCF, 38-VCU, 37-ARIZONA
11-Seeds: 41-Temple, 42-Arizona State, 43-Syracuse/44-Butler, 45-Furman/46-Alabama
12-Seeds: 50-LIPSCOMB, 49-WOFFORD, 48-MURRAY STATE, 47-SAN FRANCISCO
13-Seeds: 51-RADFORD, 52-VERMONT, 53-HOFSTRA, 54-NORTH TEXAS
14-Seeds: 58-UC SANTA BARBARA, 57-GRAND CANYON, 56-MONTANA, 55-GEORGIA STATE
15-Seeds: 59-TEXAS SOUTHERN, 60-LEHIGH, 61-RIDER, 62-VALPARAISO
16-Seeds: 68-NORFOLK STATE/67-SACRED HEART, 66-SAM HOUSTON STATE/65-PURDUE FORT WAYNE, 64-GREEN BAY, 63-PRINCETON
Last Four In: Syracuse, Butler, Furman, Alabama
Last Four Byes: Seton Hall, Texas, Temple, Arizona State
NIT 1-Seeds: Florida, Cincinnati, Creighton, St. Louis
NIT 2-Seeds: Kansas State, Clemson, Utah State, Washington
Also Considered: Fresno State, Pittsburgh, Oregon, Notre Dame, Arkansas, Baylor, Belmont, Georgetown, Northwestern, Missouri
Multi-bid conferences
Big 10: 10
ACC: 8
SEC: 7
Big 12: 6
Big East: 5
American: 3
Pac-12: 2
Southern: 2
West Coast: 2
Despite the win, Marquette falls from the top of the 3-line to the bottom since our last S-Curve. It was close between them and Indiana, but ultimately Marquette's better wins & no Quadrant 2 losses kept them as a 3-seed.
Nevada plummeted due to their awful loss at New Mexico. Their resume just doesn't have enough heft to keep them on the 2-line. If the Wolfpack takes 2-3 more losses and doesn't win their conference tournament, they could be the St. Mary's of this year, missing out entirely with an incredibly gaudy record. They haven't played a Quadrant 1 game yet & only get two chances in league play, on the road at Utah State & Fresno State. The highest seed to fall out of the bracket entirely was Cincinnati, who went from a 7-seed to the NIT. Like Nevada, there's just not enough meat on their resume to offset their bad loss to East Carolina.
Maryland was the highest debut in the S-Curve, going from the first team out all the way to the 5-line, thanks to a 4-0 record since the last post with three wins over teams in the field. The Terps reinforce an incredibly strong Big 10 field.
The Big East drops from 6 to 5 teams as Creighton falls out, but both Villanova and St. John's moved up significantly. The league will offer plenty of road opportunities for Quadrant 1 wins and while there likely won't be any teams on the top two lines, I think it's a good bet that there could be 3-4 teams with 7-seeds or better come Selection Sunday.
1-Seeds: 1-Michigan, 2-Duke, 3-Virginia, 4-TENNESSEE
2-Seeds: 8-Kansas, 7-MICHIGAN STATE, 6-Gonzaga, 5-TEXAS TECH
3-Seeds: 9-North Carolina, 10-Houston, 11-Oklahoma, 12-Marquette
4-Seeds: 16-Florida State, 15-VIRGINIA TECH, 14-BUFFALO, 13-Indiana
5-Seeds: 17-Kentucky, 18-Wisconsin, 19-St. John's, 20-Maryland
6-Seeds: 24-NEVADA, 23-VILLANOVA, 22-Nebraska, 21-Iowa State
7-Seeds: 25-Iowa, 26-Louisville, 27-Mississippi, 28-Ohio State
8-Seeds: 32-Mississippi State, 31-Purdue, 30-Auburn, 29-North Carolina State
9-Seeds: 33-TCU, 34-LSU, 35-Minnesota, 36-Seton Hall
10-Seeds: 40-Texas, 39-UCF, 38-VCU, 37-ARIZONA
11-Seeds: 41-Temple, 42-Arizona State, 43-Syracuse/44-Butler, 45-Furman/46-Alabama
12-Seeds: 50-LIPSCOMB, 49-WOFFORD, 48-MURRAY STATE, 47-SAN FRANCISCO
13-Seeds: 51-RADFORD, 52-VERMONT, 53-HOFSTRA, 54-NORTH TEXAS
14-Seeds: 58-UC SANTA BARBARA, 57-GRAND CANYON, 56-MONTANA, 55-GEORGIA STATE
15-Seeds: 59-TEXAS SOUTHERN, 60-LEHIGH, 61-RIDER, 62-VALPARAISO
16-Seeds: 68-NORFOLK STATE/67-SACRED HEART, 66-SAM HOUSTON STATE/65-PURDUE FORT WAYNE, 64-GREEN BAY, 63-PRINCETON
Last Four In: Syracuse, Butler, Furman, Alabama
Last Four Byes: Seton Hall, Texas, Temple, Arizona State
NIT 1-Seeds: Florida, Cincinnati, Creighton, St. Louis
NIT 2-Seeds: Kansas State, Clemson, Utah State, Washington
Also Considered: Fresno State, Pittsburgh, Oregon, Notre Dame, Arkansas, Baylor, Belmont, Georgetown, Northwestern, Missouri
Multi-bid conferences
Big 10: 10
ACC: 8
SEC: 7
Big 12: 6
Big East: 5
American: 3
Pac-12: 2
Southern: 2
West Coast: 2
Despite the win, Marquette falls from the top of the 3-line to the bottom since our last S-Curve. It was close between them and Indiana, but ultimately Marquette's better wins & no Quadrant 2 losses kept them as a 3-seed.
Nevada plummeted due to their awful loss at New Mexico. Their resume just doesn't have enough heft to keep them on the 2-line. If the Wolfpack takes 2-3 more losses and doesn't win their conference tournament, they could be the St. Mary's of this year, missing out entirely with an incredibly gaudy record. They haven't played a Quadrant 1 game yet & only get two chances in league play, on the road at Utah State & Fresno State. The highest seed to fall out of the bracket entirely was Cincinnati, who went from a 7-seed to the NIT. Like Nevada, there's just not enough meat on their resume to offset their bad loss to East Carolina.
Maryland was the highest debut in the S-Curve, going from the first team out all the way to the 5-line, thanks to a 4-0 record since the last post with three wins over teams in the field. The Terps reinforce an incredibly strong Big 10 field.
The Big East drops from 6 to 5 teams as Creighton falls out, but both Villanova and St. John's moved up significantly. The league will offer plenty of road opportunities for Quadrant 1 wins and while there likely won't be any teams on the top two lines, I think it's a good bet that there could be 3-4 teams with 7-seeds or better come Selection Sunday.
Monday, January 07, 2019
Ya win some, ya lose some, and ya get a new commit
It wasn't the week of #mubb basketball we were hoping for, but it certainly could have been worse. Having returned from New Year's we work backwards as we discuss the some what disjointed victory over Xavier before spending some time picking apart the shockingly lopsided lose to St John's. We then talk about the up coming week of games, including breaking down whether there actually is something to the MU "road woes" and if it will impact the game against Creighton and if Seton Hall gives us any concern. We close out the podcast welcoming MU's newest recruit, Symir Torrence to the fold, analyzing whether he stays 2020 or reclassifies for 2019 and what all this means in terms of needs for the next couple of recruiting classes. Enjoy!
https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/mf/play/9229ay/scrambledeggs_editted_10619.mp3