Bracket Projection, January 27

Does anyone on the bubble want to play in the NCAA Tournament? While evaluating the final 13 spots in the field, I dug into 33 different teams. 25 of them lost a game this past week, & 4 of the teams that didn't take a loss were in leagues that are too small to really move the needle for an at-large.

It happened to Pac-12 teams like Arizona, Arizona State, & Oregon. The Big 10 saw Indiana, Minnesota, & Northwestern all lose. In the SEC, it was Auburn, Florida, Alabama, & Arkansas. Syracuse, Clemson, & Pittsburgh all found ways to lose games in the ACC. Does no one want to fill out the field?

Mid and low major teams didn't fare much better. UCF, Temple, & Memphis in the American, San Francisco & St. Mary's in the WCC, Furman in the SoCon, & Toledo in the MAC all dropped games in low-opportunity leagues.

Collectively, the 33 teams I looked at went 31-33 over the past week, not exactly making a strong push to earn their way into the field.

The Big East had mixed results, with St. John's, Seton Hall, & Butler combining to go 0-4 while Creighton & Providence combined to go 4-0. So the teams on both sides of the bubble are moving closer to the middle that is a Tuesday or Wednesday game in Dayton. But no matter how bad the bubble is (and right now it looks really, really bad) there will still be 68 teams in the field. We'll start with the S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-VIRGINIA, 2-TENNESSEE, 3-Michigan, 4-Duke
2-Seeds: 8-KANSAS, 7-North Carolina, 6-GONZAGA, 6-MICHIGAN STATE
3-Seeds: 9-HOUSTON, 10-Kentucky, 11-Marquette, 12-Louisville
4-Seeds: 16-Wisconsin, 15-Lsu, 14-Texas Tech, 13-Virginia Tech
5-Seeds: 17-Iowa, 18-Maryland, 19-VILLANOVA, 20-BUFFALO
6-Seeds: 24-Iowa State, 23-NEVADA, 22-Purdue, 21-Oklahoma
7-Seeds: 25-Mississippi, 26-Mississippi State, 27-Nebraska, 28-Kansas State
8-Seeds: 32-Ohio State, 31-NC State, 30-Tcu, 29-Florida State
9-Seeds: 33-Minnesota, 34-Cincinnati, 35-Texas, 36-Auburn
10-Seeds: 40-Syracuse, 39-Seton Hall, 38-Temple, 37-Indiana
11-Seeds: 41-St. John's, 42-WOFFORD, 43-WASHINGTON, 44-Baylor/45-Alabama
12-Seeds: 50-LIPSCOMB, 49-MURRAY STATE, 48-HOFSTRA, 46-Arizona State/47-Creighton
13-Seeds: 51-RADFORD, 52-VERMONT, 53-NORTH TEXAS, 54-GRAND CANYON
14-Seeds: 58-LOYOLA CHICAGO, 57-NORTHERN KENTUCKY, 56-YALE, 55-TEXAS STATE
15-Seeds: 59-GEORGE MASON, 60-UC IRVINE, 61-BUCKNELL, 62-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
16-Seeds: 68-ROBERT MORRIS/67-PVAMU, 66-SAM HOUSTON ST/65-RIDER, 64-NORFOLK STATE, 63-NORTHERN COLORADO

Last Four Byes: Temple, Seton Hall, Syracuse, St. John's
Last Four In: Baylor, Alabama, Arizona State, Creighton
NIT 1-Seeds: Arizona, Butler, Florida, Utah State
NIT 2-Seeds: UNC Greensboro, VCU, UCF, Providence

Also Considered: San Francisco, Liberty, Clemson, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Toledo, Davidson, Arkansas, St. Mary's, Oregon, Northwestern, Fresno State, Memphis, South Carolina, Belmont

Multiple Bid Leagues
Big 10: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
SEC:  7
Big East: 5
American: 3
Pac-12: 2

This will also be our first bracket projection of the year. Seeds are balanced as well as possible across the four regions while also seeking to keep teams in the same conferences apart for the first weekend & preventing higher seeds from suffering unfair regional matchups. The location of the first round games will be listed in parentheses next to the protected seed.

East Region
1 Virginia
16 Robert Morris/Prairie View A&M
Columbia, South Carolina
8 TCU
9 Auburn

5 Villanova
12 Hofstra
San Jose, California
4 Wisconsin
13 Radford

3 Kentucky
14 Northern Kentucky
Des Moines, Iowa
6 Purdue
11 Baylor/Arizona State

7 Nebraska
10 Seton Hall
Tulsa, Oklahoma
2 Kansas
15 George Mason

Midwest Region
1 Michigan
16 Norfolk State
Columbus, Ohio
8 Florida State
9 Texas

5 Buffalo
12 Alabama/Creighton
Hartford, Connecticut
4 Virginia Tech
13 Grand Canyon

3 Louisville
14 Texas State
Hartford, Connecticut
6 Oklahoma
11 Wofford

7 Mississippi State
10 Indiana
Salt Lake City, Utah
2 Gonzaga
15 Bucknell

West Region
1 Duke
16 Northern Colorado
Jacksonville, Florida
8 Ohio State
9 Cincinnati

5 Maryland
12 Murray State
San Jose, California
4 LSU
13 Vermont

3 Houston
14 Loyola Chicago
Tulsa, Oklahoma
6 Iowa State
11 St. John's

7 Mississippi
10 Syracuse
Columbus, Ohio
2 Michigan State
15 South Dakota State

South Region
1 Tennessee
16 Sam Houston State/Rider
Columbia, South Carolina
8 NC State
9 Minnesota

5 Iowa
12 Lipscomb
Salt Lake City, Utah
4 Texas Tech
13 North Texas

3 Marquette
14 Yale
Des Moines, Iowa
6 Nevada
11Washington

7 Kansas State
10 Temple
Jacksonville, Florida
2 North Carolina
15 UC Irvine