S-Curve Update: January 10

We have a new S-Curve after Marquette's incredible comeback against Creighton. There have been some changes now that conference play has kicked off. Conference rankings are being used for auto-bids with one exception; Nevada was considered the MWC Champ because at this point, that league does not seem worthy of two bids. As usual, all bids are based on resume and not projections. This is about what you've done, not what people think you might do.

1-Seeds: 1-Michigan, 2-Duke, 3-Virginia, 4-TENNESSEE
2-Seeds: 8-Kansas, 7-MICHIGAN STATE, 6-Gonzaga, 5-TEXAS TECH
3-Seeds: 9-North Carolina, 10-Houston, 11-Oklahoma, 12-Marquette
4-Seeds: 16-Florida State, 15-VIRGINIA TECH, 14-BUFFALO, 13-Indiana
5-Seeds: 17-Kentucky, 18-Wisconsin, 19-St. John's, 20-Maryland
6-Seeds: 24-NEVADA, 23-VILLANOVA, 22-Nebraska, 21-Iowa State

7-Seeds: 25-Iowa, 26-Louisville, 27-Mississippi, 28-Ohio State
8-Seeds: 32-Mississippi State, 31-Purdue, 30-Auburn, 29-North Carolina State
9-Seeds: 33-TCU, 34-LSU, 35-Minnesota, 36-Seton Hall
10-Seeds: 40-Texas, 39-UCF, 38-VCU, 37-ARIZONA
11-Seeds: 41-Temple, 42-Arizona State, 43-Syracuse/44-Butler, 45-Furman/46-Alabama
12-Seeds: 50-LIPSCOMB, 49-WOFFORD, 48-MURRAY STATE, 47-SAN FRANCISCO
13-Seeds: 51-RADFORD, 52-VERMONT, 53-HOFSTRA, 54-NORTH TEXAS
14-Seeds: 58-UC SANTA BARBARA, 57-GRAND CANYON, 56-MONTANA, 55-GEORGIA STATE
15-Seeds: 59-TEXAS SOUTHERN, 60-LEHIGH, 61-RIDER, 62-VALPARAISO
16-Seeds: 68-NORFOLK STATE/67-SACRED HEART, 66-SAM HOUSTON STATE/65-PURDUE FORT WAYNE, 64-GREEN BAY, 63-PRINCETON

Last Four In: Syracuse, Butler, Furman, Alabama
Last Four Byes: Seton Hall, Texas, Temple, Arizona State

NIT 1-Seeds: Florida, Cincinnati, Creighton, St. Louis
NIT 2-Seeds: Kansas State, Clemson, Utah State, Washington

Also Considered: Fresno State, Pittsburgh, Oregon, Notre Dame, Arkansas, Baylor, Belmont, Georgetown, Northwestern, Missouri

Multi-bid conferences
Big 10: 10
ACC: 8
SEC: 7
Big 12: 6
Big East: 5
American: 3
Pac-12: 2
Southern: 2
West Coast: 2

Despite the win, Marquette falls from the top of the 3-line to the bottom since our last S-Curve. It was close between them and Indiana, but ultimately Marquette's better wins & no Quadrant 2 losses kept them as a 3-seed.

Nevada plummeted due to their awful loss at New Mexico. Their resume just doesn't have enough heft to keep them on the 2-line. If the Wolfpack takes 2-3 more losses and doesn't win their conference tournament, they could be the St. Mary's of this year, missing out entirely with an incredibly gaudy record. They haven't played a Quadrant 1 game yet & only get two chances in league play, on the road at Utah State & Fresno State. The highest seed to fall out of the bracket entirely was Cincinnati, who went from a 7-seed to the NIT. Like Nevada, there's just not enough meat on their resume to offset their bad loss to East Carolina.

Maryland was the highest debut in the S-Curve, going from the first team out all the way to the 5-line, thanks to a 4-0 record since the last post with three wins over teams in the field. The Terps reinforce an incredibly strong Big 10 field.

The Big East drops from 6 to 5 teams as Creighton falls out, but both Villanova and St. John's moved up significantly. The league will offer plenty of road opportunities for Quadrant 1 wins and while there likely won't be any teams on the top two lines, I think it's a good bet that there could be 3-4 teams with 7-seeds or better come Selection Sunday.