S-Curve Update, January 15

The most notable change to the S-Curve is Duke falling from the top line & second overall seed down to the the two-line. It was difficult not to drop them further as they are one of only two teams on the top three lines with a Quadrant 2 loss, though they still have five Quadrant 1 victories, a total only exceeded by Kansas, the other top-3 seed with a Q2 loss. Texas Tech replaces the Blue Devils on the 1-line. I was wary of Chris Beard's team earlier because their gaudy record was mostly built on a soft schedule, but they've added two wins in both Quadrants 1 & 2 in league play, showing so far that they are legit.

The Big East took some big hits this week. Marquette stands firm at 12 as there just wasn't enough movement ahead of them to move them up. Villanova moved up one line to a 5-seed and Seton  Hall stayed in about the same place, but St. John's tumbled 5 lines after their loss to DePaul while Butler's loss to Xavier dropped them out of the field, leaving the league with only 4 teams in our S-Curve. Creighton also took a hit by missing a home opportunity at their first Quadrant 1 win against Villanova. I could still see the Big East getting as many as 6 teams in, but if the middle & bottom beats up on itself, 3 is also a possibility. Here's the field:

1-Seeds: 1-MICHIGAN, 2-VIRGINIA, 3-TENNESSEE, 4-TEXAS TECH
2-Seeds: 8-Michigan State, 7-Duke, 6-Kansas, 5-GONZAGA
3-Seeds: 9-Oklahoma, 10-Houston, 11-North Carolina, 12-Marquette
4-Seeds: 16-Kentucky, 15-Maryland, 14-Virginia Tech, 13-BUFFALO
5-Seeds: 17-Nebraska, 18-NEVADA, 19-VILLANOVA, 20-N.C. State
6-Seeds: 24-Florida State, 23-Iowa, 22-Mississippi, 21-Louisville
7-Seeds: 25-Purdue, 26-Auburn, 27-Indiana, 28-Iowa State
8-Seeds: 32-Ohio State, 31-Minnesota, 30-Lsu, 29-Wisconsin
9-Seeds: 33-Mississippi State, 34-ARIZONA, 35-Seton  Hall, 36-Temple
10-Seeds: 40-WOFFORD, 39-Syracuse, 38-St. John's, 37-Tcu
11-Seeds: 41-UCF, 42-Kansas State, 43-Texas, 44-LIPSCOMB
12-Seeds: 50-MURRAY STATE, 49-ST. LOUIS, 48-Vcu/47-Washington, 46-Cincinnati/45-Arizona State
13-Seeds: 51-HOFSTRA, 52-VERMONT, 53-RADFORD, 54-UC IRVINE
14-Seeds: 58-RIDER, 57-UTSA, 56-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, 55-GEORGIA STATE
15-Seeds: 59-DETROIT, 60-VALPARAISO, 61-BUCKNELL, 62-PRINCETON
16-Seeds: 68-NORFOLK STATE/67-UMKC, 66-SAM HOUSTON STATE/65-WAGNER, 64-PRAIRIE VIEW A&M, 63-NORTHERN COLORADO

Last Four In: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Washington, VCU
Last Four Byes: St. John's, Syracuse, Kansas State, Texas

NIT 1-Seeds (First Four Out): Florida, Butler, Furman, San Francisco
NIT 2-Seeds (Next Four Out): Pittsburgh, Creighton, Utah State, Alabama

Multi-bid Conferences
Big 10: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
SEC: 6
American: 4
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

One team that is really surprising of late is Jeff Capel's Pittsburgh Panthers. They are still currently on the outside looking in due to an ugly home loss to sub-300 Niagara. Outside that game, however, they have a very respectable resume. If they can get to 9-9 in league play they will definitely be a team to watch come Selection Sunday. That will be a tough ask, though, as Pomeroy has them as underdogs in 11 of their remaining 14 games.