S-Curve Update, January 21

I feel a bit guilty. I put Texas Tech on the top line in my last update, and the Red Raiders proceeded to drop their next two games to fall all the way to the last 3-seed. With TTU falling out, it left a vacancy on the top line. Despite the impressive win by Duke over Virginia, they do not return to the top line. The Syracuse home loss is still too glaring, especially when you compare their overall resume to the teams ahead of them. It was a tough decision, as right now it seems there are five teams worthy of a 1-seed but only four to hand out. Here's the current S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-VIRGINIA, 2-TENNESSEE, 3-Michigan, 4-MICHIGAN STATE
2-Seeds: 8-North Carolina, 7-KANSAS, 6-GONZAGA, 5-Duke
3-Seeds: 9-HOUSTON, 10-Marquette, 11-BUFFALO, 12-Texas Tech
4-Seeds: 16-Iowa, 15-Maryland, 14-Virginia Tech, 13-Kentucky
5-Seeds: 17-Louisville, 18-Nebraska, 19-Lsu, 20-Mississippi
6-Seeds: 24-VILLANOVA, 23-Mississippi State, 22-Oklahoma, 21-Wisconsin
7-Seeds: 25-Iowa State, 26-Purdue, 27-NC State, 28-NEVADA
8-Seeds: 32-Kansas State, 31-Indiana, 30-Florida State, 29-Auburn
9-Seeds: 33-Ohio State, 34-Texas, 35-St. John's, 36-Butler
10-Seeds: 40-Minnesota, 39-Seton Hall, 38-Syracuse, 37-Tcu
11-Seeds: 41-Temple, 42-WOFFORD, 43-WASHINGTON, 44-Cincinnati/45-Arizona
12-Seeds: 50-MURRAY STATE, 49-HOFSTRA, 48-ST LOUIS, 47-Arizona State/46-Alabama
13-Seeds: 51-LIBERTY, 52-RADFORD, 53-VERMONT, 54-MARSHALL
14-Seeds: 58-NORTHERN KENTUCKY, 57-LOYOLA CHICAGO, 56-TEXAS STATE, 55-GRAND CANYON
15-Seeds: 59-UC SANTA BARBARA, 60-PRINCETON, 61-BUCKNELL, 62-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
16-Seeds: 68-ROBERT MORRIS/67-PRAIRIE VIEW A&M, 66-SAM HOUSTON STATE/65-RIDER, 64-NORFOLK STATE, 63-WEBER STATE

NIT 1-Seeds: 69-Florida, 70-Furman, 71-Lipscomb, 72-Clemson
NIT 2-Seeds: 76-Baylor, 75-Pittsburgh, 74-Utah State, 73-VCU

Multibid Leagues
Big 10:10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
SEC: 7
Big East: 5
American: 3
Pac-12: 3

Some teams moved down despite doing nothing wrong since the last update, most notably Villanova and Nevada. I started this bracket completely from scratch, so that coupled with the advent of the division of the first two Quadrants made their resumes pale a bit compared to the last update.

The Big East returns to 5 teams, though Creighton has tumbled completely off the board. While only Marquette & Villanova look secure (thanks in large part to DePaul playing spoiler) the current state of the bubble is so soft that Seton Hall is the only team in the Last Eight.

There's been a lot of talk about a 1-bid Pac-12. First, the only reason Washington is in my field is because they are leading the conference standings & thus go as the auto-bid. If they were not, they would absolutely not be in the field. They have zero top-100 wins as of this writing. That's not an at-large team. I'll also note that while it's a 3-bid league currently, both Arizona & Arizona State are in Dayton. If either of them wins both the league and auto-bid, I think a 1-bid Pac-12 is a realistic possibility, though I still think 2 is most likely.