Marquette's NCAA Dream Scenarios

Last week we covered some teams that present significant matchup problems for Marquette. This week we're looking at teams Marquette offers similar challenges to. If Marquette sees these teams in the bracket on the opening weekend, hopes should be high for a Sweet 16 run.

Before digging into the teams, a few S-Curve notes. Kentucky jumped up onto the 1-line while Tennessee fell from the overall 2 to 6. The primary reasons are Kentucky's 6 Q1A wins overshadow their losses while Tennesse simply lack a quantity of quality wins while playing the weakest SOS of any team on the top three lines. Also, when looking down to the bubble, the margins are razor thin. Not only do individual results lead to significant shifts, but so do results when a bubble team opponents move up or down a quadrant. Blind resumes on the bubble are very ugly right now.

Anyway...on with the Marquette Scenarios:

UC Irvine (14-Seed): The Anteaters are exactly what Marquette wants to see. They start a small three-guard lineup, so Markus Howard would rarely see a defender taller than 6'2". Defensively, they are excellent in eFG%, but that due to 2PFG% defense. A team that shoots as well as Marquette would likely shred UC Irvine from outside. The Anteaters don't force many turnovers, so they would have trouble taking advantage of Marquette's offensive Achilles' Heel. They are also not a particularly good shooting team so it seems unlikely they could keep up with MU's scoring. In every sense, this is the ideal team for Marquette to open the NCAA Tournament with.

TCU (11-Seed): Since Jaylen Fisher left the program, TCU went from an 11-1 start to 6-7 without arguably their best player. The Horned Frogs are now shorter at the guard positions & have seen their top-25 defensive efficiency tumble to 40th. TCU is still relatively capable on both ends, but are clearly not the same team they were. With a soft bubble, there's every chance they could stay on the 11-line & provide a tantalizing second-round matchup for Marquette.

Virginia Tech (6-Seed): The easy answer is Kansas State, but that would be a rehash of the past. There are no easy draws on the 6-line, but the Hokies are the kind of team Marquette could take advantage of. While Va Tech does have some length & success in generating turnovers, they also have played a lot of zone this year. As a result MU could take advantage on the glass. In terms of point distribution, Hokie opponents score a higher percentage of points from three than any other team in the nation. The zone would also allow MU to work their shooters around the perimeter to find the best matchup. Finally, the Hokies are just 1-4 in games against top-30 kenpom teams with the lone win against Purdue in mid-November. This is a team that looks better on paper than they actually are due to 6 wins of 25+ points against sub-100 Kenpom teams.

1-Seeds: 1-DUKE, 2-Virginia, 3-GONZAGA, 4-Kentucky
2-Seeds: 8-Michigan State, 7-North Carolina, 6-Tennessee, 5-MICHIGAN
3-Seeds: 9-Kansas, 10-HOUSTON, 11-Marquette, 12-Purdue
4-Seeds: 16-LSU, 15-Texas Tech, 14-Iowa State, 13-NEVADA
5-Seeds: 17-Louisville, 18-Wisconsin, 19-VILLANOVA, 20-Iowa
6-Seeds: 24-Maryland, 23-Florida State, 22-KANSAS STATE, 21-Virginia Tech
7-Seeds: 25-BUFFALO, 26-Mississippi State, 27-Cincinnati, 28-Mississippi
8-Seeds: 32-Auburn, 31-WOFFORD, 30-WASHINGTON, 29-St. John's
9-Seeds: 33-Texas, 34-Ohio State, 35-Oklahoma, 36-LIPSCOMB
10-Seeds: 40-Syracuse, 39-Minnesota, 38-Baylor, 37-BELMONT
11-Seeds: 41-Tcu, 42-Vcu, 43-Alabama, 44-Seton Hall
12-Seeds: 50-DAVIDSON, 49-Furman/48-Nc State, 47-Temple/46-Indiana, 45-Utah State
13-Seeds: 51-NEW MEXICO STATE, 52-HOFSTRA, 53-VERMONT, 54-YALE
14-Seeds: 58-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, 57-RADFORD, 56-UC IRVINE, 55-OLD DOMINION
15-Seeds: 59-MONTANA, 60-NORTHERN KENTUCKY, 61-LOYOLA CHICAGO, 62-TEXAS STATE
16-Seeds: 68-CANISIUS/67-ST. FRANCIS (PA), 66-SAM HOUSTON STATE/65-NORFOLK STATE, 64-PRAIRIE VIEW A&M, 63-BUCKNELL

Last Four Byes: VCU, Alabama, Seton Hall, Utah State
Last Four In: Indiana, Temple, NC State, Furman
First Four Out: Clemson, Florida, UNC Greensboro, Liberty
Next Four Out: Nebraska, Arizona State, UCF, Butler