There's a reason I generally stick to S-Curves. If you are going to build a full bracket, there are a lot of rules to be followed. You need to balance the seeds evenly across the four regions. You need to keep conference opponents away from each other as long as possible. You want to avoid rematches both from the regular season & the last tournament. You should make sure protected seeds are protected geographically. If you're going to do it right, it's a lot of work, and even when you think you have it right, there will still be conflicts & complaints. Nonetheless, I tried to put a bracket together today based on the tournament starting now and the remaining favorites winning their conference tournaments. Here's the bracket, with comments below on why teams are where they are, and the full S-Curve at the bottom of the article.
Balancing the Bracket: I broke the bracket down into 4 sections. The most important to balance was the Top-16. The strongest Top-16 region is the South, with 32 points given while the West is the weakest with 36 total points (both the East & Midwest have 34). I then evaluated the 5-8, 9-12, & 13-16 lines in the same fashion. Each of those categories is separated by no more than 4 total points of seeding in any region. The total disparity in seed power has the Midwest as the strongest region with 529 points & the South as the weakest with 534. This is an incredibly small imbalance that would have been smaller had Minnesota & TCU not been switched (see below).
The Top-16: I moved Gonzaga back to the 1-line. While I do think Houston has the better resume, I don't expect the Committee to acknowledge that. The metrics favor Gonzaga & I feel the makeup of the Committee will benefit the Zags. My expectation is that the winner of Tennessee & Kentucky will be on the top line. They are basically interchangeable
Early rematches: There is no set rule on teams from different conferences meeting the first weekend, but Purdue & Virginia Tech did play in the regular season but had to be placed across from each other to maintain the Top-16 balance. No other regular season non-conference opponents can play earlier than the Sweet 16 (there are 6 such instances where that could happen). There is one instance where conference teams could meet in the second round; Michigan State & Minnesota. The Gophers had to be moved from the South to avoid Michigan & there was no better option. I looked at moving them to every spot within one seed line & none made a better fit without disrupting the overall balance or creating another conflict. No other conference teams can meet before the Sweet 16 & all of those potential meetings are within the Committee Guidelines.
Location: The Top-16 were placed in order. The top ten teams were all assigned to the closest available site to their campus. Kansas was sent to Jacksonville instead of Salt Lake City due to not wanting to give first round opponent Montana a geographical advantage. Below them, LSU, Purdue, & Kansas State received their closest location while Florida State & Wisconsin were sent to San Jose to avoid creating similar first weekend disadvantages to Kansas.
Ultimate, this was a pain & a reminder why I feel that people putting brackets together more often than not don't put due diligence in. I almost always find errors with a cursory glance, & despite spending a lot of time on this it would not surprise me if other errors were found by people digging into it.
As far as Marquette, I wouldn't love this road, but it's the road that came out of balancing the bracket. A potential Florida State matchup would be difficult while Tennessee would be a tough Sweet 16 draw. Here's the S-Curve as it currently stands:
1-Seeds: 1-DUKE, 2-Virginia, 3-TENNESSEE, 4-Gonzaga
2-Seeds: 8-MICHIGAN STATE, 7-HOUSTON, 6-North Carolina, 5-Kentucky
3-Seeds: 9-Michigan, 10-Texas Tech, 11-KANSAS, 12-Lsu
4-Seeds: 16-Kansas State, 15-Wisconsin, 14-Purdue, 13-Florida State
5-Seeds: 17-Virginia Tech, 18-Marquette, 19-Mississippi State, 20-Maryland
6-Seeds: 24-Iowa State, 23-BUFFALO, 22-WOFFORD, 21-VILLANOVA
7-Seeds: 25-Auburn, 26-Cincinnati, 27-Nevada, 28-Louisville
8-Seeds: 32-UTAH STATE, 31-Iowa, 30-Ucf, 29-Mississippi
9-Seeds: 33-WASHINGTON, 34-Syracuse, 35-Baylor, 36-Seton Hall
10-Seeds: 40-Tcu, 39-Vcu, 38-Minnesota, 37-Oklahoma
11-Seeds: 41-Ohio State, 42-Belmont, 43-Unc Greensboro/44-Temple, 45-Florida/46-Furman
12-Seeds: 50-LIBERTY, 49-NEW MEXICO STATE, 48-ST. MARY'S, 47-MURRAY STATE
13-Seeds: 51-DAVIDSON, 52-UC IRVINE, 53-VERMONT, 54-NORTHEASTERN
14-Seeds: 58-HARVARD, 57-MONTANA, 56-GEORGIA STATE, 55-OLD DOMINION
15-Seeds: 59-NORTHERN KENTUCKY, 60-COLGATE, 61-BRADLEY, 62-GARDNER WEBB
16-Seeds: 68-NC CENTRAL/67-IONA, 66-NORTH DAKOTA STATE/65-FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON, 64-PRAIRIE VIEW A&M, 63-ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Last Four Byes: VCU, TCU, Ohio State, Belmont
Last Four In: UNC Greensboro, Temple, Florida, Furman
First Four Out: Lipscomb, Arizona State, Creighton, Indiana
Next Four Out: St. John's, Alabama, NC State, Clemson
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