With Marquette's four-game losing skid that took them from the verge of an outright Big East title & a great shot at a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament to a 2-seed in the Big East Tournament & a resume that has dropped them to a NCAA 5-seed, MU fans are likely wondering how much worse it can get.
Let's take a look at the resumes in both directions. What does it look like if Marquette wants to get back to the 4-line & is there a chance they could drop to the 6-line or worse?
| Team | Record | NET | SOS | Q1 | Q2 | Q3+4 |
| Kansas | 23-8 | 20 | 1 | 10-7 | 6-1 | 7-0 |
| Florida State | 25-6 | 19 | 56 | 6-4 | 6-2 | 13-0 |
| Wisconsin | 22-9 | 15 | 21 | 9-7 | 5-2 | 8-0 |
| Kansas State | 24-7 | 24 | 46 | 7-4 | 6-3 | 11-0 |
| Virginia Tech | 23-7 | 12 | 60 | 4-7 | 6-0 | 13-0 |
| Marquette | 23-8 | 29 | 27 | 9-5 | 6-2 | 8-1 |
| Villanova | 22-9 | 25 | 16 | 5-6 | 10-3 | 7-0 |
| Maryland | 22-9 | 26 | 8 | 6-7 | 7-1 | 9-1 |
| Wofford | 28-4 | 14 | 124 | 3-4 | 5-0 | 17-0 |
| Mississippi State | 22-9 | 21 | 10 | 8-6 | 3-3 | 11-0 |
| Buffalo | 28-3 | 16 | 87 | 2-1 | 5-1 | 20-1 |
| Nevada | 28-3 | 18 | 108 | 1-1 | 7-1 | 20-1 |
I'm going to go bottom up. If you look at teams on the 6-line, there's simply no way Marquette falls further than that. Even if they take a loss to DePaul, their 9 Quadrant 1 wins are more than Wofford, Buffalo, & Nevada have combined. The heft at the top of the resume is simply too good. Marquette also has more Q1A wins (2) than those three combined (0) & if Buffalo wins their conference tournament, that figure could improve. An early loss could drop Marquette down to the 6-line, especially if teams like Villanova, Maryland, & Mississippi State are able to add some significant wins, but they will not fall further than that.
Looking up, Marquette has more Q1 wins than 3 of the 5 teams ahead of them. The loss to Georgetown is the only Q3 loss on the resume & it's as close as it can be. So what are the things we should be looking at this conference tourney week? Here are a few things to focus on:
Marquette: Obviously, they need to win. Beating St. John's or DePaul wouldn't move the dial up much, but it would likely assure Marquette stays on the 5-line at worst. Seton Hall/Georgetown would be another Q2 win, so to truly move the dial & get to the 4-line, Marquette likely needs to win the Big East Tournament, hopefully by adding a win over Villanova or maybe Creighton in the final, who are the only real chances to add a Quadrant 1 win.
Georgetown: The Hoyas are resume killers thanks to their DePaul loss. Ideally, they will hammer Seton Hall to move back into the top-75, which would add a Q1 win for Marquette while removing their only Q3 loss.
Buffalo: The Bulls are currently 16 in the NET, one spot out of being a Q1A win. If Wisconsin & Louisville hold firm while Buffalo moves up, MU would significantly increase their odds of moving past teams like Va Tech & Wisconsin.
Everyone Else: Ideally Marquette wants the other 11 teams listed above to lose as early as possible to keep them from adding quality wins. Frankly, looking any further down on the S-Curve, there just aren't any other teams that will be able to do that much damage. If someone further down, say Iowa State, makes a run it will take Kansas State out. MU isn't dropping below a 6.
1-Seeds: 1-VIRGINIA, 2-GONZAGA, 3-North Carolina, 4-Duke
2-Seeds: 8-Michigan, 7-MICHIGAN STATE, 6-Tennessee, 5-Kentucky
3-Seeds: 9-Texas Tech, 10-HOUSTON, 11-LSU, 12-Purdue
4-Seeds: 16-KANSAS STATE, 15-Wisconsin, 14-Florida State, 13-Kansas
5-Seeds: 17-Virginia Tech, 18-Marquette, 19-VILLANOVA, 20-Maryland
6-Seeds: 24-NEVADA, 23-BUFFALO, 22-Misissippi State, 21-WOFFORD
7-Seeds: 25-Iowa State, 26-Auburn, 27-Utah State, 28-VCU
8-Seeds: 32-Iowa, 31-Louisville, 30-Cincinnati, 29-WASHINGTON
9-Seeds: 33-Mississippi, 34-Baylor, 35-Syracuse, 36-Ucf
10-Seeds: 40-Texas, 39-Seton Hall, 38-Temple, 37-Oklahoma
11-Seeds: 41-Minnesota, 42-Belmont, 43-Tcu, 44-Ohio State
12-Seeds: 50-Clemson/49-Lipscomb, 48-Creighton/47-Unc Greensboro, 46-LIBERTY, 45-MURRAY STATE
13-Seeds: 51-NEW MEXICO STATE, 52-HOFSTRA, 53-OLD DOMINION, 52-UC IRVINE
14-Seeds: 58-MONTANA, 57-GEORGIA STATE, 56-HARVARD, 55-VERMONT
15-Seeds: 59-COLGATE, 60-WRIGHT STATE, 61-BRADLEY, 62-NEBRASKA OMAHA
16-Seeds: 68-IONA/67-ST FRANCIS (PA), 66-NORFOLK STATE/65-SAM HOUSTON STATE, 64-GARDNER WEBB, 63-PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
Last Four Byes: Minnesota, Belmont, TCU, Ohio State
Last Four In: UNC-Greensboro, Creighton, Lipscomb, Clemson
First Four Out: NC State, St. John's, Florida, Indiana
Next Four Out: Furman, Arizona State, Alabama, Georgetown
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