Marquette's Seeding Yo-Yo

With Marquette's four-game losing skid that took them from the verge of an outright Big East title & a great shot at a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament to a 2-seed in the Big East Tournament & a resume that has dropped them to a NCAA 5-seed, MU fans are likely wondering how much worse it can get.

Let's take a look at the resumes in both directions. What does it look like if Marquette wants to get back to the 4-line & is there a chance they could drop to the 6-line or worse?

Team	Record	NET	SOS	Q1	Q2	Q3+4
Kansas	23-8	20	1	10-7	6-1	7-0
Florida State	25-6	19	56	6-4	6-2	13-0
Wisconsin	22-9	15	21	9-7	5-2	8-0
Kansas State	24-7	24	46	7-4	6-3	11-0
Virginia Tech	23-7	12	60	4-7	6-0	13-0
Marquette	23-8	29	27	9-5	6-2	8-1
Villanova	22-9	25	16	5-6	10-3	7-0
Maryland	22-9	26	8	6-7	7-1	9-1
Wofford	28-4	14	124	3-4	5-0	17-0
Mississippi State	22-9	21	10	8-6	3-3	11-0
Buffalo	28-3	16	87	2-1	5-1	20-1
Nevada	28-3	18	108	1-1	7-1	20-1

I'm going to go bottom up. If you look at teams on the 6-line, there's simply no way Marquette falls further than that. Even if they take a loss to DePaul, their 9 Quadrant 1 wins are more than Wofford, Buffalo, & Nevada have combined. The heft at the top of the resume is simply too good. Marquette also has more Q1A wins (2) than those three combined (0) & if Buffalo wins their conference tournament, that figure could improve. An early loss could drop Marquette down to the 6-line, especially if teams like Villanova, Maryland, & Mississippi State are able to add some significant wins, but they will not fall further than that.

Looking up, Marquette has more Q1 wins than 3 of the 5 teams ahead of them. The loss to Georgetown is the only Q3 loss on the resume & it's as close as it can be. So what are the things we should be looking at this conference tourney week? Here are a few things to focus on:

Marquette: Obviously, they need to win. Beating St. John's or DePaul wouldn't move the dial up much, but it would likely assure Marquette stays on the 5-line at worst. Seton Hall/Georgetown would be another Q2 win, so to truly move the dial & get to the 4-line, Marquette likely needs to win the Big East Tournament, hopefully by adding a win over Villanova or maybe Creighton in the final, who are the only real chances to add a Quadrant 1 win.

Georgetown: The Hoyas are resume killers thanks to their DePaul loss. Ideally, they will hammer Seton Hall to move back into the top-75, which would add a Q1 win for Marquette while removing their only Q3 loss.

Buffalo: The Bulls are currently 16 in the NET, one spot out of being a Q1A win. If Wisconsin & Louisville hold firm while Buffalo moves up, MU would significantly increase their odds of moving past teams like Va Tech & Wisconsin.

Everyone Else: Ideally Marquette wants the other 11 teams listed above to lose as early as possible to keep them from adding quality wins. Frankly, looking any further down on the S-Curve, there just aren't any other teams that will be able to do that much damage. If someone further down, say Iowa State, makes a run it will take Kansas State out. MU isn't dropping below a 6.

1-Seeds: 1-VIRGINIA, 2-GONZAGA, 3-North Carolina, 4-Duke
2-Seeds: 8-Michigan, 7-MICHIGAN STATE, 6-Tennessee, 5-Kentucky
3-Seeds: 9-Texas Tech, 10-HOUSTON, 11-LSU, 12-Purdue
4-Seeds: 16-KANSAS STATE, 15-Wisconsin, 14-Florida State, 13-Kansas
5-Seeds: 17-Virginia Tech, 18-Marquette, 19-VILLANOVA, 20-Maryland
6-Seeds: 24-NEVADA, 23-BUFFALO, 22-Misissippi State, 21-WOFFORD
7-Seeds: 25-Iowa State, 26-Auburn, 27-Utah State, 28-VCU
8-Seeds: 32-Iowa, 31-Louisville, 30-Cincinnati, 29-WASHINGTON
9-Seeds: 33-Mississippi, 34-Baylor, 35-Syracuse, 36-Ucf
10-Seeds: 40-Texas, 39-Seton Hall, 38-Temple, 37-Oklahoma
11-Seeds: 41-Minnesota, 42-Belmont, 43-Tcu, 44-Ohio State
12-Seeds: 50-Clemson/49-Lipscomb, 48-Creighton/47-Unc Greensboro, 46-LIBERTY, 45-MURRAY STATE
13-Seeds: 51-NEW MEXICO STATE, 52-HOFSTRA, 53-OLD DOMINION, 52-UC IRVINE
14-Seeds: 58-MONTANA, 57-GEORGIA STATE, 56-HARVARD, 55-VERMONT
15-Seeds: 59-COLGATE, 60-WRIGHT STATE, 61-BRADLEY, 62-NEBRASKA OMAHA
16-Seeds: 68-IONA/67-ST FRANCIS (PA), 66-NORFOLK STATE/65-SAM HOUSTON STATE, 64-GARDNER WEBB, 63-PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

Last Four Byes: Minnesota, Belmont, TCU, Ohio State
Last Four In: UNC-Greensboro, Creighton, Lipscomb, Clemson
First Four Out: NC State, St. John's, Florida, Indiana
Next Four Out: Furman, Arizona State, Alabama, Georgetown