Selection Sunday, Afternoon

I expect when the final bracket comes out, I will end up looking really right or really wrong. I have focused my research this year heavily on the basis of the makeup of the Selection Committee. The reason for that is I am projecting a 3-bid SoCon. I evaluated 18 teams for the last 7 spots of the field. Those teams were (in NET order) Florida, NC State, Clemson, Texas, Furman, Washington, Belmont, Lipscomb, Belmont, Creighton, Indiana, Ohio State, Temple, Alabama, UNC Greensboro, Arizona State, Xavier, & St. John's. Here is the thought process I went through:

Too Many Losses (Texas, Indiana, Alabama, Xavier OUT) No team has ever made the field with 15 losses that did not also have at least 19 wins. I can't see a SC with a slant toward smaller conferences rewarding high-major programs with unprecedented bids.

Sub-60 NET (Arizona State, St. John's OUT) This is the first place where I differ from most other brackets. As of this writing, 81.1% of brackets on bracketmatrix.com have ASU in while 70.5% have St. John's in. However at the top-16 reveal, the SC mentioned 20 teams & none were ranked lower than 21 in the NET. I think 60 is an absolute cutoff, especially for teams that have more losses.

Show Me Something (Clemson OUT) No team had so many chances at good wins and came up short so often. I know they lost close games, which inflates their computer metrics, but ultimate resume has to count & the Tigers don't have enough on theirs to make the field.

So now we have 11 teams for those same 7 spots. The remaining teams are Florida, NC State, Furman, Washington, Belmont, Lipscomb, TCU, Creighton, Ohio State, Temple, & UNC Greensboro.

Quadrants 1 & 2 Performance (Washington, Belmont IN) Washington was 10-7 vs Q1/2 while Belmont was 5-3. Those were the only two teams with winning records vs the top two quadrants. While each team had struggles related to their league, they were more likely to win games than not against higher level competition.

Quadrant 1A Performance (TCU & Florida IN, Creighton & Ohio State OUT) Both teams had 2 Q1A wins. The only teams to equal or exceed that were Texas & Indiana, both eliminated off the bat. TCU was the easier decision with no losses outside the top two Quadrants. I know most have Florida comfortably in (96.2% of brackets) but I have them in Dayton. They would equal the worst record to ever make the field & every 19-15 at-large team in NCAA history has played in Dayton. Conversely, Creighton & Ohio State had every chance to get elite wins & came up short most of the time. Considering their pedestrian records, there isn't enough at the top of their resumes to overcome 14 losses & less than 20 wins.

We're now down to 5 teams for 3 spots: NC State, Furman, Lipscomb, Temple, & UNC Greensboro.

Show Me Something, Take 2 (NC State OUT) Similar to Clemson, NC State had chances & just didn't do enough with it. Their NCSOS of 353 is absolutely terrible & there just isn't enough at the top to offset the complete lack of any effort to schedule well.

The Final Three (Furman, Temple, & UNC Greensboro IN, Lipscomb OUT) Temple's record, along with the win over Houston, had the right mix of quality & quantity. That left a decision between three mid majors. Furman had a winning record in every Quadrant except 1 & the best overall win over Villanova. UNCG has their ridiculous average NET loss of 16 (better than any team in the country not on the 1 or 2 line) & were perfect outside Q1. That left Lipscomb out, who just had too many blemishes & not enough merits to offset that.

With the new committee makeup in place, that would give the at large bus outside the top-7 leagues since 2015. It's not as many as pre-2014 but the numerous bid thieves this week shrank the at large field by 4 spots. Here's the last S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-DUKE, 2-Virginia, 3-North Carolina, 4-Gonzaga
2-Seeds: 8-MICHIGAN, 7-Michigan State, 6-Kentucky, 5-Tennessee
3-Seeds: 9-Houston, 10-Texas Tech, 11-Lsu, 12-Florida State
4-Seeds: 16-Kansas State, 15-Wisconsin, 14-Purdue, 13-Kansas
5-Seeds: 17-Virginia Tech, 18-Marquette, 19-Mississippi State, 20-VILLANOVA
6-Seeds: 24-AUBURN, 23-IOWA STATE, 22-BUFFALO, 21-WOFFORD
7-Seeds: 25-Maryland, 26-CINCINNATI, 27-Nevada, 28-Louisville
8-Seeds: 32-UTAH STATE, 31-Iowa, 30-Ucf, 29-Mississippi
9-Seeds: 33-Syracuse, 34-Baylor, 35-Seton Hall, 36-Minnesota
10-Seeds: 40-Belmont, 39-Washington, 38-Vcu, 37-Oklahoma
11-Seeds: 41-Tcu, 42-Florida/43-Furman, 44-Temple/45-Unc Greensboro, 46-OREGON
12-Seeds: 50-LIBERTY, 49-NEW MEXICO STATE, 48-ST. MARY'S, 47-MURRAY STATE
13-Seeds: 51-UC IRVINE, 52-VERMONT, 53-NORTHEASTERN, 54-OLD DOMINION
14-Seeds: 58-MONTANA, 57-YALE, 56-GEORGIA STATE, 55-ST. LOUIS
15-Seeds: 59-NORTHERN KENTUCKY, 60-COLGATE, 61-BRADLEY, 62-GARDNER WEBB
16-Seeds: 68-NC CENTRAL/67-IONA, 66-NORTH DAKOTA STATE/65-FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON, 64-PRAIRIE VIEW A&M, 63-ABILENE CHRISTIAN

NIT 1-Seeds: Lipscomb, NC State, Creighton, Ohio State
NIT 2-Seeds: Clemson, St. John's, Arizona State, Indiana