The Best* Team in the Big East

Listening to Big East Tournament previews this week, I was surprised by some of what I heard, or rather didn't hear. It sounds like the safe money is on either regular season champs Villanova or host St. John's to cut down the nets at MSG on Saturday. The trendy outsider pick was Seton Hall, with Xavier considered a dark horse because they've been hot of late. Yet virtually no one is talking about the best* team in the Big East!

The asterisk refers to recent play going back to February 18, so basically about the past month. I'm talking about the best team in recent weeks that also has the best defense in recent weeks. So who is it? It isn't St. John's or Seton Hall, who are both in the bottom 3 & it isn't Villanova, who's right around the middle. It isn't even Xavier, winners of 6 of 7.

The best team in the league recently is Creighton. The Jays have rattled off 5 straight wins by turning their early season struggles on their head. The Jays were being compared to last year's Marquette teams because of their excellent offense & atrocious defense. That changed starting with their February 20 win over DePaul. Why? Let's take a look at the Big East efficiency numbers since the start of their streak from barttorvik.com:

Team	Record	Adj OE	Off Rank	Adj DE	Def Rank	Power Rating	Power Rank
Creighton	5-0	112.9	46	90.8	24	.9252	21
Xavier	4-1	117.3	17	95.8	63	.9115	28
Providence	3-2	107.9	113	90.9	28	.8775	38
Marquette	2-4	109.5	89	95.2	58	.8333	47
Villanova	2-3	112.6	51	101.4	138	.7682	69
DePaul	2-3	115.7	24	104.9	194	.7548	72
Georgetown	4-2	107.8	116	98.7	95	.7318	80
Seton Hall	2-3	104.1	182	95.6	59	.7272	82
St. John's	1-4	112.1	57	108.8	248	.5851	139
Butler	1-4	103.2	196	102.4	154	.5248	163

While Creighton's offense has dropped a bit, their defense has been the best in the league which has translated to playing like a borderline top-20 team. It is this play that has lifted them into my bracket & likely this trend is the reason they are getting the third best odds of any Big East team to win the conference tournament behind Villanova & Marquette.

The downside is they open play against the second hottest team & 4 of the top 5 hottest teams over that stretch are on their side of the bracket, making for a daunting run to the final. Creighton is favored against Xavier & if they win, get a crack at a Villanova team the Jays took to overtime at the Finn just over a month ago. Considering how well they are playing, it might shockingly be Creighton who proves that defense wins championships if they can keep it up for 3 more games.

Here's the updated S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-VIRGINIA, 2-North Carolina, 3-Duke, 4-Gonzaga
2-Seeds: 8-Michigan, 7-MICHIGAN STATE, 6-Tennessee, 5-Kentucky
3-Seeds: 9-HOUSTON, 10-Texas Tech, 11-LSU, 12-Purdue
4-Seeds: 16-KANSAS STATE, 15-Wisconsin, 14-Florida State, 13-Kansas
5-Seeds: 17-Virginia Tech, 18-Marquette, 19-VILLANOVA, 20-Maryland
6-Seeds: 24-NEVADA, 23-BUFFALO, 22-Misissippi State, 21-WOFFORD
7-Seeds: 25-Iowa State, 26-Auburn, 27-Utah State, 28-VCU
8-Seeds: 32-Iowa, 31-Louisville, 30-Cincinnati, 29-WASHINGTON
9-Seeds: 33-Mississippi, 34-Baylor, 35-Syracuse, 36-Ucf
10-Seeds: 40-Oklahoma, 39-Minnesota, 38-Seton Hall, 37-Temple
11-Seeds: 41-Belmont, 42-Tcu, 43-Ohio State, 44-Unc Greensboro/45-Creighton
12-Seeds: 50-ST. MARY'S (CA) 49-Indiana/48-Lipscomb 47-LIBERTY, 46-MURRAY STATE
13-Seeds: 51-NEW MEXICO STATE, 52-NORTHEASTERN, 53-OLD DOMINION, 52-UC IRVINE
14-Seeds: 58-MONTANA, 57-GEORGIA STATE, 56-HARVARD, 55-VERMONT
15-Seeds: 59-COLGATE, 60-NORTHERN KENTUCKY, 61-BRADLEY, 62-GARDNER WEBB
16-Seeds: 68-IONA/67-FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON, 66-NORFOLK STATE/65-SAM HOUSTON STATE, 64-PRAIRIE VIEW A&M, 63-NORTH DAKOTA STATE

Last Four Byes: Minnesota, Belmont, TCU, Ohio State
Last Four In: UNC Greensboro, Creighton, Lipscomb
First Four Out: St. John's, Furman, NC State, Florida
Next Four Out: Alabama, Texas, Arizona State, Clemson