Value Add Basketball Game Showcases Markus' Ability to Create; S. Hauser's Efficiency

After beta testing the (free) Value Add Basketball Game to simulate each player's ability in just about every aspect of the game, we ran player cards for up to 10 players on all 353 teams as well as 32 All-Conference teams. The links to the game and players cards are below in case anyone wants to simulate a match-up (you did need two 6-sided dice and a 20-sided and 8-sided as well.

But first, last year after the season Value Add Projections showed Marquette as a 7-seed with Greg Elliott (projected 3.0), and with his loss Marquette dropped out of the top 32 to project as a first round NCAA loser. I haven't done a full projection yet, but just going with the projected Value Add's of every team's Value Add minus their seniors, Marquette is 10th in the country. That includes Zion Williamson's best ever 14.08 and all others who are really one-and-dones, so it's not an in depth but since the teams losing players early to the NBA are often the same teams who pick up new ones, it seems Marquette minus Elliott calculating as a 9-seed last year, and Marquette projecting as a 3-seed even before adding a projection for Elliott or McEwen for next year and our All-American Markus Howard being able to play shooting guard where opponents cannot badger him all game - I just don't see how fans can; 1) not be satisfied with this year as a whole, 2) not see the program as absolutely on pace under Wojo including making the tournament way ahead of schedule two years ago,par this year, and great expectations last year. Here are the top 10 teams in "non-senior" Value Add this year.

1. Virginia	47.49
2. Duke	47.12
3. Michigan	38.69
4. Kentucky	37.03
5. Gonzaga	36.64
6. Michigan St.	34.13
7. Maryland	33.97
8. Kansas	33.55
9. LSU	30.84
10. Marquette	30.54

The Value Add Basketball Game

To play your own game, click on the first 2 links for instructions and scoresheets, then pick two teams from any of the links below for player cards. You need only two 6-sided dice, a 20-sided die and an 8-sided die.

How to Play Value Add Basketball

Value Add Game Scoresheet

Pick 2 teams, click for Player Cards

All-Conference Player Cards

Abilene Christian to BYU

Cal Baptist to Duquesne

East Carolina to Green Bay

Hampton to LSU

Maine to Notre Dame

Oakland to Syracuse

TCU to Youngstown Player Cards

The Value Add Basketball Game simulates each players' ability to get the ball and get shots off,  rebound, hit from the line and inside and outside the arc, dish out great assists.

The first aspect of the game is the measurement of the ability to create shots and opportunities. While the game is an over simplification, it is accurate, it starts with a roll of an 8-sided dice and Markus Howard is one of the very elite players in the game that creates shots on three numbers, a 1, 6 or 8. Basically most players just get the ball if that die points to their position (1 = point guard creates, 2 = shooting guard creates, etc.), but the offense stalls on a 6, 7 or 8 unless you have a rate truly elite creator like Howard or with players with one extra number (7 for example) that is a very good creator, and one thing that does stand out is that noone else on MU was even the very good creator. Therefore if Markus is off the court, you can see why the offense stalls.

That being said, when he does create Sam Hauser has a virtually identical shooting/drawing foul card on a 1 to 20 roll. Both hit 3-pointers on rolls of 1-4, hit 2-pointers on 5 to 8, and Markus draws a shooting foul on one more number than Sam (9 to 11 vs 9 to 10). When they go to the line, both hit free throws on a roll of 1-18 since both round out to 90% from the line.

However, the player first must avoid a turning it over on a roll of 11-66 when the defender is trying to stop them, and while Markus is a slightly better than average with turnovers on just three numbers (51-53), Hauser is truly elite with  a turnover on only one roll, a 51. Keep in mind that the opposing defender can also steal the ball on some of their numbers. What really jumped out was Brandon Bailey, who not only never turns the ball over on his card but actually calculated a NEGATIVE three numbers which means I should really take away almost all the times his opponent steals the ball from him - but the game isn't that advanced.

Marquette's two top 30 players who are not seniors makes them truly elite net year. UVa is more impressive with three in the top 15, Gonzaga has two in the top 35 but likely loses one to the NBA, Duke has No. 1 and No 11 in Zion and RJ, but obviously the are both gone and the next most impressive is Texas Tech with two in the top 50.

While I hate to lose Sacar Anim's defense, being able to rotate in more offense in a year not having Joseph Chartouny as a strong defender was good but on offense not having him able to handle the speed of the competition (he actually has the highest turnover range in the game (44-56 are turnovers) and as much as we all love Matt Heldt but with two returning center all looks good. So the main change is returning players usually improve, and adding two point guards to let Marquette's superstars play the 2 and the 3 (shooting guard and small forward) gives Wojo the first team he has had that should win even a game in March Madness, and it definitely looks like a run is possible for the first time. Yes I'm in the Polyanna mode, but in this case I do not see why anyone is not.

Here are the Marquette playing cards in the game, but they really are easier to read on the google sheet in the game if you can click on that instead:

Hampton to LSU

Markus Howard	Check here when defending; 11-43 Roll	20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette	11 to 13: he steals ball	1 to 4: 3-pt made
BE,5-11	21 to 22: he blocks shot	5 to 8: 2-pt made
Value Add: 9.23	36 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided	9 to 11: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time	41 = forces miss & gets rebound	12 to 16: missed three
55	When he has ball check 44-66	17 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)	51 to 53: turns ball over	Off Reb: 1-1/Def Reb: 1-2
S - 1, 6&8	64 to 66: he dunks (scores at the rim)	1 to 18: free throw good
Sacar Anim	Check here when defending; 11-43 Roll	20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette	11 to 13: he steals ball	1 to 2: 3-pt made
BE,6-5	21 to 23: he blocks shot	3 to 8: 2-pt made
Value Add: 1.65	36 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided	9 to 10: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time	41 = forces miss & gets rebound	11 to 13: missed three
49	When he has ball check 44-66	14 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)	51 to 52: turns ball over	Off Reb: 1-1/Def Reb: 1-2
S - 2	64 to 66: he dunks	1 to 11: free throw good
Sam Hauser	Check here when defending; 11-43 Roll	20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette	11 to 13: he steals ball	1 to 4: 3-pt made
BE,6-8	21 to 23: he blocks shot	5 to 8: 2-pt made
Value Add: 8.79	36 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided	9 to 10: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time	41 = forces miss & gets rebound	11 to 17: missed three
53	When he has ball check 44-66	18 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)	51 to 51: turns ball over	Off Reb: 1-2/Def Reb: 1-4
S - 3	64 to 66: he dunks	1 to 18: free throw good
Joey Hauser	Check here when defending; 11-43 Roll	20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette	11 to 13: he steals ball	1 to 3: 3-pt made
BE,6-9	21 to 23: he blocks shot	4 to 7: 2-pt made
Value Add: 3.44	35 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided	8 to 11: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time	41 = forces miss & gets rebound	12 to 15: missed three
48	When he has ball check 44-66	16 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)	51 to 55: turns ball over	Off Reb: 1-2/Def Reb: 1-3
S - 4	Use this card on 44-66, Otherwise defender card	1 to 16: free throw good
Theo John	Check here when defending; 11-43 Roll	20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette	11 to 16+: he steals ball	None: 3-pt made
BE,6-9	21 to 26+++: he blocks shot	1 to 9: 2-pt made
Value Add: 2.75	33 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided	10 to 14: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time	41 = forces miss & gets rebound	No missed 3s
32	When he has ball check 44-66	15 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)	51 to 55: turns ball over	Off Reb: 1-6/Def Reb: 1-3
S - 5	Use this card on 44-66, Otherwise defender card	1 to 10: free throw good

Joseph Chartouny	Check here when defending; 11-43 Roll	20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette	11 to 15: he steals ball	1 to 3: 3-pt made
BE,6-3	21 to 22: he blocks shot	4 to 8: 2-pt made
Value Add: 1.18	36 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided	9 to 10: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time	41 = forces miss & gets rebound	11 to 16: missed three
27	When he has ball check 44-66	17 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)	44 to 56: turns ball over	Off Reb: 1-1/Def Reb: 1-3
B - 1	64 to 66: he dunks	1 to 14: free throw good
Jamal Cain	Check here when defending; 11-43 Roll	20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette	11 to 16: he steals ball	1 to 3: 3-pt made
BE,6-7	21 to 25: he blocks shot	4 to 9: 2-pt made
Value Add: 0.64	35 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided	10 to 11: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time	41 = forces miss & gets rebound	12 to 16: missed three
13	When he has ball check 44-66	17 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)	46 to 56: turns ball over	Off Reb: 1-4/Def Reb: 1-4
B - 2	64 to 66: he dunks	1 to 5: free throw good
Brendan Bailey	Check here when defending; 11-43 Roll	20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette	11 to 15: he steals ball	1 to 2: 3-pt made
BE,6-8	21 to 26: he blocks shot	3 to 6: 2-pt made
Value Add: 1.09	36 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided	7 to 8: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time	41 = forces miss & gets rebound	9 to 16: missed three
20	When he has ball check 44-66	17 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)	Does not turns ball over	Off Reb: 1-3/Def Reb: 1-1
B - 3	64 to 66: he dunks	1 to 14: free throw good
Ed Morrow	Check here when defending; 11-43 Roll	20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette	11 to 16: he steals ball	None: 3-pt made
BE,6-7	21 to 26+: he blocks shot	1 to 10: 2-pt made
Value Add: 2.77	34 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided	11 to 13: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time	41 = forces miss & gets rebound	No missed 3s
22	When he has ball check 44-66	14 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)	51 to 56: turns ball over	Off Reb: 1-6/Def Reb: 1-4
B - 4	64 to 66: he dunks	1 to 14: free throw good
Matt Heldt	Check here when defending; 11-43 Roll	20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette	11 to 16: he steals ball	None: 3-pt made
BE,6-10	21 to 26+: he blocks shot	1 to 7: 2-pt made
Value Add: 0.53	33 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided	8 to 12: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time	41 = forces miss & gets rebound	No missed 3s
8	When he has ball check 44-66	17 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)	51 to 53: turns ball over	Off Reb: 1-4/Def Reb: 1-2
B - 5	64 to 66: he dunks	1 to 15: free throw good