Very Preliminary Value Add Projections Put MU 30th, Powell & Markus Possible National POY

Click here for the VERY preliminary dump of Value Add Projections for all the players in the system. Due to be swamped at work for a few months, I pulled this together as best I could with a 20 hour marathon day, so corrections or comments are welcome and you can type into Column C on the first slide by any player. 

I purposely just follow my script of what a players value should be this year based on his year in school and the normal progression based on last year's value, as well as rankings of freshmen, JUCOS and www.nbadraft.net rankings. While I have a system for mapping transfers, it is certainly not foil proof, and there are certainly other places errors can be made such as I assume anyone I had down as a senior is no longer eligible, but of course in some cases they are. I also purposely do not spend any extra time adjusting Marquette or other Big East players - if there wasn't already something in the system that would "automatically" generate a projected rankings, then they have a 0.00 for now because that is what would happen with all other teams.

With all those qualifiers, the following are a few tables.

First, in the Big East Villanova ranks 11th in the country, Creighton 22nd,and Marquette 30th for the top three spots. I did not look to see if this jives with preseason forecasts, just ran the numbers with what I had in the system. I also rank every team based on NBA potential, giving each player a ranking of 100 (best) to 1 (longshot) based on DraftNet rankings and then giving each team the total of their players plus 25 extra for each player (so Markus is an 86, which gives MU a 111 which would rank MU 33rd based just on NBA talent.

Team Projection	Rank	Value Add	NBA Talent Rank	Players	NBA Prospects	NBA Talent	2019 Rank	2019 Seed
Villanova	11	42.17	17	10	3	261	30	6
Creighton	22	36.96	38	11	1	112	55	NIT2
Marquette	30	34.13	39	14	1	111	33	5
Seton Hall	34	32.94	85	13	1	28	60	10
Xavier	45	31.46	32	11	3	121	65	NIT3
Georgetown	52	30.97	24	10	2	204	100	NIT3
Butler	64	28.67	52	11	1	87	72	NIT5
Providence	72	27.16	16	10	4	263	79	NIT4
DePaul	114	19.91	30	10	2	139	118
St. John's	138	18.16	66	9	1	59	88	11

Second, here are the Top 25 players that pop up in the projections, and interestingly DraftNet does not have Myles Powell showing up as a prospect yet but he does project as the second best player in the country, whereas they are ranking Markus a good bit higher this year even though he projects just a shade below Powell in 6th in the preseason projections (I did meet with the founder of DraftNet in San Francisco last year and his track record is pretty amazing). Here are the top 25 projected players - and yes please point out any place I am listing someone on the wrong team or who has left.

Name	Rank	Team	Value Add 5	Ht	Class	NBA?
Cassius Winston	1	Michigan St.	12.34	6'1"	Sr	74
Myles Powell	2	Seton Hall	11.16	6'2	Sr
Sam Merrill	3	Utah St.	10.18	6'5	Sr
James Wiseman	4	Memphis	10	7'0"	Fr	98
Jordan Ford	5	Saint Mary's	9.99	6'1	Sr
Markus Howard	6	Marquette	9.83	5'11	Sr	86
Jon Axel Gudmundsson	7	Davidson	9.64	6'5	Sr
Isaiah Stewart	8	Washington	9.5	6'9"	Fr	99
Anthony Lamb	9	Vermont	9.47	6'6	Sr
Davide Moretti	10	Texas Tech	9.17	6'2"	Jr
Desmond Bane	11	TCU	9.10	6'5"	Sr	34
Terry Taylor	12	Austin Peay	9.09	6'5	Jr
Grant Riller	13	Charleston	9.03	6'3	Sr
Anthony Edwards	14	Georgia	9	6'4"	Fr	100
Devon Dotson	15	Kansas	8.91	6'2	So	70
Jarron Cumberland	16	Cincinnati	8.84	6'5	Sr	12
Cameron Reddish	17	Duke	8.8	6'7	1 Fr
Tres Tinkle	18	Oregon St.	8.8	6'8	Sr	30
Kerry Blackshear	19	Florida	8.78	6'10"	Sr	68
Xavier Tillman	20	Michigan St.	8.78	6'8"	Jr
Skylar Mays	21	LSU	8.70	6'4"	Sr
Obi Toppin	22	Dayton	8.64	6'9	So	71
Ignas Brazdeikis	23	Michigan	8.52	6'7"	So	88
Cole Anthony	24	North Carolina	8.5	6'2"	Fr	99
Tyreke Key	25	Indiana St.	8.48	6'2	Jr

Finally as you scroll through the sheet it is organized team by team. If I know a player is not eligible until next season then you see a /2021 by the team name. If I do not have a figure for a player yet, then they have a 0 for now - not an indication that they will not have value,just that they are not ranked yet. Very interesting that besides Markus, MU has two centers projected to be in the top 15% of all players in Theo and Jayce, Ed Morrow is just behind them, and it will be interesting to see if he shoots higher as a true power forward instead of an undersized center, as well as if Symir Torrence is already as strong as he projects - or if the reports of Koby McEwen being even better than his ranking would indicate bear out.

Marquette Player	Proj Value Add		Class	NBA Rank
Dexter Akanno	0		Fr
Sacar Anim	2.25	6'5	Sr
Brendan Bailey	2.09	6'8	So
Jamal Cain	1.04	6'7	Jr
Brendan Carney	0
Greg Elliott	3	6'3	So
Tommy Gardiner	0		So
Markus Howard	9.83	5'11	Sr	86
Osasere Ighodaro/2021	0
Theo John	3.55	6'9	Jr
Jayce Johnson	3.6	7'0	Sr
Michael Kennedy	0
Justin Lewis/2021	0
Koby McEwen	2.36	6'4	Jr
Ed Morrow	3.37	6'7	Sr
Symir Torrence	3.04	6'3"	Fr
Team	34.13			111

That is a quick summary of a cram job to try to get as much as I could organized and into the sheet. It is not on the www.valueaddbasketball.com website yet because I want a few eyes to see it first to note any obvious mistakes.