S-Curve 2020 Take 1

I decided to start bundling teams today in order to have a head-start on my first bracket projection for Christmas. After spending 30 minutes or so in that rabbit hole, I found myself sucked into doing a full S-Curve. Quite simply, this is a mess. It got really hard to differentiate teams in the middle of the 4-line, and the separation between the teams on the 6-line and the teams on the bubble is miniscule. I could make an honest case for Kentucky to be out of the field and Arkansas in based on resume, which feels a bit insane.

What really stood out was that I have 8 Big East teams in the field, though Seton Hall would be in a precarious position if they lose to Maryland. Just hard to justify anyone at 6-5, especially as North Carolina was dismissed fairly quickly once I got to the staggering 27 teams I had for the final 16 spots. If UNC isn't very close to being in, Seton Hall isn't far from being out.

As far as how I did this, with the exception of the ACC (Louisville) and Big 10 (Michigan State), the autobid winner is the highest ranked team in the league per Pomeroy. Those two exceptions are based on league standings.


1-Seeds: 1-KANSAS 2-GONZAGA 3-Ohio State 4-Duke
2-Seeds: 8-BUTLER 7-Baylor 6-Maryland 5-LOUISVILLE
3-Seeds: 9-West Virginia 10-OREGON 11-Florida State 12-Auburn
4-Seeds: 16-Penn State 15-SAN DIEGO STATE 14-Wichita State 13-MEMPHIS
5-Seeds: 17-Michigan 18-DAYTON 19-Virginia 20-MICHIGAN STATE
6-Seeds: 24-KENTUCKY 23-Indiana 22-Iowa 21-Arizona
7-Seeds: 25-Villanova 26-Marquette 27-Tennessee 28-Creighton
8-Seeds: 32-Georgetown 31-Stanford 30-Xavier 29-Washington
9-Seeds: 33-Oklahoma State 34-DePaul 35-Oklahoma 36-Purdue
10-Seeds: 40-Seton Hall 39-Texas Tech 38-Florida 37-St. Mary's
11-Seeds: 41-NC State 42-Byu 43-Texas/44-Colorado 45-Illinois/46-Richmond
12-Seeds: 50-YALE 49-LOUISIANA TECH 48-LIBERTY 47-NORTHERN IOWA
13-Seeds: 51-EAST TENNESSEE STATE 52-VERMONT 53-AKRON 54-EASTERN WASHINGTON
14-Seeds: 58-NORTHERN KENTUCKY 57-STEPHEN F AUSTIN 56-UC IRVINE 55-BELMONT
15-Seeds: 59-NEW MEXICO STATE 60-RIDER 61-COLGATE 62-GEORGIA STATE
16-Seeds: 68-BETHUNE COOKMAN/67-ST FRANCIS (PA) 66-PRAIRIE VIEW A&M/65-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 64-RADFORD 63-NORTHEASTERN

First Four Out: Arkansas, Utah State, VCU, LSU
Next Four Out: Duquesne, Oregon State, Connecticut, Iowa State

Multi-bid Leagues:

Big Ten -- 9
Big East -- 8
Big 12 -- 7
ACC -- 5
Pac-12 -- 5
SEC -- 4
West Coast Conference -- 3
American -- 2
Atlantic-10 -- 2

A few more notes. This was written before the SHU over Maryland upset. It's early enough in the season that I'm not going to worry about that. The Big East has a massive 8 bids, but only Butler is included on the top-6 lines. The league needs teams like Villanova, Marquette, Creighton, and Xavier to start winning Quadrant 1 games to earn favored seeds.