With Markus Howard averaging 28.3 points per game, a solid two points more than the second best scorer in the nation and more than five points better than the next best power conference scorer (Luke Garza), "BALANCE" is not the first word that pops to mind. In fact, after programming issues kept me from running the numbers at www.valueaddbasketball.com this season until today, Howard does calculate as one of only four players of the 4,061 D1 players worth more than nine additional points per game to MUs score each game over how many points we estimated MU would score without him.
| Best Offensive Players | Team | Height | Off | Def | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loren Cristian Jackson #1 | Akron | 5-foot-8 | 9.83 | 0.02 | 9.82 |
| Luka Garza #55 | Iowa | 6-foot-11 | 9.45 | -2.33 | 11.78 |
| Payton Pritchard #3 | Oregon | 6-foot-2 | 9.30 | -1.10 | 10.40 |
| Markus Howard #0 | Marquette | 5-foot-11 | 9.07 | -0.27 | 9.33 |
| Isaiah Stewart #33 | Washington | 6-foot-9 | 8.71 | -2.34 | 11.05 |
However, Value Add measures every stat including defensive stops and level of competition to determine each players value above replacement, until today, BALANCE is the word. The "top 20%" of all players continues to be the dividing line for players who truly impact who wins most games, and for the first time since the Elite 8 team of 2013 six Marquette players make that cut.
First, let's look at my first top 20 run of the year, which does place Markus a bit lower than www.kenpom.com (where he ranked 4th in the country). For those who have followed Value Add Basketball ratings in the past, Markus rises and falls faster than just about any other player - and I did consider the Butler game one of his worst, but he often follows up a bad one with an incredible game and shoots up to the top again. As of today, here is the top 20, and then the six players from both Marquette and Butler - the only two Big East teams with six elite players so far this year.
| rank | Player | Team | Height | Off | Def | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luka Garza #55 | Iowa | 6-foot-11 | 9.45 | -2.33 | 11.78 |
| 2 | Onyeka Okongwu #21 | USC | 6-foot-9 | 8.67 | -2.69 | 11.35 |
| 3 | Jalen Smith #25 | Maryland | 6-foot-10 | 8.00 | -3.35 | 11.35 |
| 4 | Isaiah Stewart #33 | Washington | 6-foot-9 | 8.71 | -2.34 | 11.05 |
| 5 | Malachi Flynn #22 | San Diego St. | 6-foot-1 | 8.59 | -2.06 | 10.65 |
| 6 | Paul Reed #4 | DePaul | 6-foot-9 | 6.48 | -3.92 | 10.40 |
| 7 | Payton Pritchard #3 | Oregon | 6-foot-2 | 9.30 | -1.10 | 10.40 |
| 8 | Devon Dotson #1 | Kansas | 6-foot-2 | 7.66 | -2.66 | 10.32 |
| 9 | Daniel Oturu #25 | Minnesota | 6-foot-10 | 7.73 | -2.53 | 10.26 |
| 10 | Obi Toppin #1 | Dayton | 6-foot-9 | 7.53 | -2.69 | 10.22 |
| 11 | Fatts Russell #1 | Rhode Island | 5-foot-10 | 7.76 | -2.27 | 10.03 |
| 12 | Loren Cristian Jackson #1 | Akron | 5-foot-8 | 9.83 | 0.02 | 9.82 |
| 13 | Reggie Perry #1 | Mississippi St. | 6-foot-10 | 7.19 | -2.48 | 9.67 |
| 14 | Brady Manek #35 | Oklahoma | 6-foot-9 | 8.18 | -1.31 | 9.49 |
| 15 | Tyrese Haliburton #22 | Iowa St. | 6-foot-5 | 7.89 | -1.60 | 9.49 |
| 16 | Paul Atkinson #20 | Yale | 6-foot-10 | 7.33 | -2.16 | 9.49 |
| 17 | Trayce Jackson-Davis #4 | Indiana | 6-foot-9 | 7.50 | -1.99 | 9.49 |
| 18 | Freddie Gillespie #33 | Baylor | 6-foot-9 | 5.96 | -3.41 | 9.36 |
| 19 | Markus Howard #0 | Marquette | 5-foot-11 | 9.07 | -0.27 | 9.33 |
| 20 | Desmond Bane #1 | TCU | 6-foot-6 | 7.46 | -1.78 | 9.23 |
| 302 | Brendan Bailey #1 | Marquette | 6-foot-8 | 3.57 | -1.09 | 4.66 |
| 518 | Sacar Anim #2 | Marquette | 6-foot-5 | 3.22 | -0.32 | 3.54 |
| 623 | Theo John #4 | Marquette | 6-foot-9 | 1.65 | -1.53 | 3.18 |
| 693 | Jamal Cain #23 | Marquette | 6-foot-7 | 2.09 | -0.85 | 2.94 |
| 802 | Koby McEwen #25 | Marquette | 6-foot-4 | 1.75 | -0.85 | 2.60 |
| 61 | Sean McDermott #22 | Butler | 6-foot-6 | 6.26 | -1.21 | 7.47 |
| 132 | Bryce Nze #10 | Butler | 6-foot-7 | 4.11 | -2.13 | 6.24 |
| 178 | Kamar Baldwin #3 | Butler | 6-foot-1 | 3.85 | -1.82 | 5.66 |
| 525 | Aaron Thompson #2 | Butler | 6-foot-2 | 2.25 | -1.27 | 3.52 |
| 561 | Jordan Tucker #1 | Butler | 6-foot-7 | 2.47 | -0.92 | 3.40 |
| 589 | Bryce Golden #33 | Butler | 6-foot-9 | 2.44 | -0.84 | 3.28 |
Note that while Howard is by far the best offensive player, Theo John is in the top 20% for the second straight year and Brendan Bailey emerges as a new player in the top 20% due to great defense that erases opponents' scores (John's -1.53 is the best on the team with Bailey second at -1.09).
The last time Marquette placed six in the top 20 percent, it resulted in quite a run. MU went to the Elite 8 with these six players for only the second time since the National Title Game in 1977:
| rank | Player | Team | Height | Off | Def | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | Davante Gardner | MU 2013 | 6-foot-8 | 5.07 | -0.94 | 6.7 |
| 206 | Jamil Wilson | MU 2013 | 6-foot-7 | 3.13 | -0.99 | 4.59 |
| 228 | Vander Blue | MU 2013 | 6-foot-4 | 3.21 | -0.23 | 4.4 |
| 322 | Junior Cadougan | MU 2013 | 6-foot-1 | 1.19 | -0.6 | 3.67 |
| 542 | Trent Lockett | MU 2013 | 6-foot-5 | 1.44 | -0.87 | 2.58 |
| 626 | Chris Otule | MU 2013 | 6-foot-11 | 1.59 | -0.43 | 2.25 |
So far this season only 21 teams match MU with six or more players in the top 20 percent, but the first 16 teams on this list put Marquette in very good company of teams that have won some great games. The last five teams on the list are not as impressive overall - ranking 55th to 76th a KenPom, so balance is not guarantee of success, but for the first time since the Elite 8 run MU can win even if the top couple of players are off on a given day.
| Team - Players in to 20% | Total | Value |
|---|---|---|
| BYU | 8 | 32.84 |
| Kansas | 7 | 41.13 |
| Gonzaga | 7 | 35.97 |
| Duke | 7 | 35.75 |
| Ohio St. | 7 | 31.46 |
| Wisconsin | 7 | 27.65 |
| Baylor | 6 | 36.26 |
| West Virginia | 6 | 31.33 |
| Florida | 6 | 29.64 |
| Butler | 6 | 29.58 |
| Michigan St. | 6 | 28.82 |
| Texas Tech | 6 | 26.87 |
| Auburn | 6 | 26.49 |
| Marquette | 6 | 26.25 |
| Indiana | 6 | 26.12 |
| Houston | 6 | 25.02 |
| East Tennessee St. | 6 | 22.57 |
| Louisiana Tech | 6 | 22.54 |
| Pittsburgh | 6 | 21.69 |
| Liberty | 6 | 21.62 |
| North Texas | 6 | 21.32 |
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