Oh-no-vertime!

It could be argued that in the past month, coaching decisions cost Marquette two overtime games they should have won. The math supports it as well. At the height of probability, Marquette was at 92.8% to beat Providence and 86.6% to beat Butler. Collectively, Marquette would be expected to win both of those games 80.4% of the time. Instead, Marquette didn't foul up two against the Friars, fouled in a tie game when the coach thought they were trailing, and subsequently lost both in overtime.


Instead of rehashing the games, we're here to talk about the ramifications of those results. On today's team sheet, Marquette is 14-6 and 25th in the NET with a computer ranking average of 27. I have them as a 7-seed, which is also the average position they occupy in the 95 brackets currently included at bracketmatrix.com. Here is how their resume compares to some teams around them, sorted by NET ranking (not true seed):

Seed	Team	NET	Computer	Record	Q1A	Q1B	Q2A	Q2B	Q3+4
6	Colorado	18	25	16-4	2-1	2-0	2-1	3-0	8-1
6	Ohio State	20	21	12-7	2-3	1-2	0-2	2-0	7-0
7	Marquette	25	27	14-6	1-5	2-0	2-0	3-0	6-1
7	Illinois	32	22	14-5	3-3	1-0	2-0	0-1	8-1
8	USC	40	50	16-4	2-2	1-1	2-0	3-0	8-1
8	Indiana	44	36	15-4	1-3	2-1	1-0	1-0	10-0

Looking above Marquette, Colorado and Ohio State both boast better computer numbers. Despite Ohio State's mediocre record, their losses are all Quadrant 2A or higher and both they and Colorado have better overall quality of wins at the top of the resume. Illinois has similar computer numbers to Marquette, but Illinois balances better wins at the top with more losses outside Quadrant 1. Behind them, USC and Indiana both have lesser computer numbers. While they boast better records than the bulk of the teams above them, too many of their wins come from the bottom two Quadrants.

Ultimately, this is a safe position for Marquette. But what if Marquette came in under the 80.4% odds and held on to beat Providence and Butler? Marquette's computer average of 27 is very close to where T-Rank had them as of this morning at #26. I used the simulator to change those two losses to wins and Marquette's computer ranking moved up from 26 to 15 (I will use 16 to reflect the 11 spot improvement) and their NET ranking improved to 17 (T-Rank's estimate of the formula feels about right). Because of the loss, Butler actually drops behind Marquette while Villanova moves up to a 3-seed. The other changes that occur are that Marquette would then have a 2-4 record against Quadrant 1A and 7-0 against Q3+4. So where would they land in that scenario? After a day entrenched in resumes, Marquette would come in at #13 overall and the top 4-seed between Villanova and Maryland. Here are comparable resumes under that scenario:

Seed	Team	NET	Computer	Record	Q1A	Q1B	Q2A	Q2B	Q3+4
3	Dayton	5	8	18-2	0-2	3-0	2-0	1-0	12-0
3	Villanova	14	17	16-3	3-3	1-0	2-0	2-0	8-0
4	Maryland	13	10	16-4	1-4	1-0	4-0	3-0	6-0
4	Marquette	17	16	16-4	2-4	2-0	2-0	3-0	7-0
5	Kentucky	22	20	15-4	4-1	0-0	2-2	0-0	9-1
5	Penn State	27	22	14-5	3-2	2-1	2-1	1-0	6-1

Three seed lines and 13 overall positions on the S-Curve would be the difference had Marquette held on. They would be knocking on the door of a 3-seed, just like they were last year before the late-season collapse. Ahead of them, both Dayton and Villanova have better computer numbers, though marginally for 'Nova. The Flyers advantage comes from no losses outside Quadrant 1A, despite fewer top-end wins while the Wildcats simply have more meat at the top of the resume with a similarly excellent resume outside Q1A. Marquette is slightly ahead of Maryland despite the computer numbers because of their Quadrant 1 wins. The Selection Committee has shown in the past they prioritize who you prove you can beat. Despite that, Kentucky's computer numbers and 3 losses outside Quadrant 1 (including a Q4 loss) keep them behind Marquette. Penn State similarly has a great top of the resume but too many losses outside the top tier and too poor of computer numbers.

Ultimately, the coaching decisions in these overtime games have cost Marquette three seed lines already. I said at the time of the Providence game that it was one you can't afford to lose. When it comes to March, the teams with the clearest path to the second weekend and beyond are those that seize opportunities when they are in front of them. I sincerely hope Marquette is able to do that going forward. As this shows, the difference between a 7-seed and a date with someone like Duke in the second round and a protected seed and realistic path to the Sweet 16 is holding on to late leads and avoiding the coin flip scenario of five extra minutes.

Here's the entire S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-BAYLOR 2-GONZAGA 3-SAN DIEGO STATE 4-Kansas
2-Seeds: 8-LOUISVILLE 7-SETON HALL 6-Florida State 5-Duke
3-Seeds: 9-DAYTON 10-West Virginia 11-Butler 12-OREGON
4-Seeds: 16-Iowa 15-MICHIGAN STATE 14-Maryland 13-Villanova
5-Seeds: 17-Kentucky 18-Creighton 19-LSU 20-Penn State
6-Seeds: 24-Ohio State 23-Rutgers 22-Colorado 21-Auburn
7-Seeds: 25-Illinois 26-Arizona 27-Marquette 28-Arkansas
8-Seeds: 32-Indiana 31-Wisconsin 30-HOUSTON 29-Usc
9-Seeds: 33-Oklahoma 34-Stanford 35-Wichita State 36-Michigan
10-Seeds: 40-Minnesota 39-Byu 38-Texas Tech 37-St. Mary's
11-Seeds: 41-Florida 42-Georgetown 43-Purdue/44-St. John's 45-Virginia Tech/46-DePaul
12-Seeds: 50-AKRON 49-YALE 48-EAST TENNESSEE STATE 47-NORTHERN IOWA
13-Seeds: 51-STEPHEN F AUSTIN 52-NEW MEXICO STATE 53-VERMONT 54- NORTH TEXAS
14-Seeds: 58-WILLIAM & MARY 57-UC IRVINE 56-COLGATE 55-WRIGHT STATE
15-Seeds: 59-MURRAY STATE 60-LITTLE ROCK 61-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 62-WINTHROP
16-Seeds: 68-NORFOLK STATE/67-ROBERT MORRIS 66-TEXAS SOUTHERN/65-MONMOUTH 64-MONTANA 63-NORTH FLORIDA

Last Four Byes: BYU, Minnesota, Florida, Georgetown
Last Four In: Purdue, St. John's, Virginia Tech, DePaul

NIT 1-Seeds: NC State, Memphis, Rhode Island, VCU
NIT 2-Seeds: Richmond, Arizona State, Xavier, Syracuse

Multi-Bid Conferences
Big 10: 12
Big East: 8
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
Pac-12: 5
ACC: 4
WCC: 3
American: 2